Money for Jam?

[stugots]

Popped up as a system bet & just out of interest I was keeping an eye on the fluc's - led all the way to win.

SCONE RACE 6 (16:04) - ROSE & PARTNERS (1600MM)

Fluctuations - FIXED PRICE Horse Name
11, 12, 6.5, 6 - 4.60 1. MASTER OF DARKNESS (8) 61.5kg

[darkydog2002]

Did you grab the 12,s.?

[stugots]

my favourite number, number 12;)

[The Ocho]

Money for Scone & jam :D :D

[Lord Greystoke]

Money for Scone & jam :D :DYup, and he would end up with more change in the pocket versus a sticky crumpet.

LG

[darkydog2002]

Fav number 12 eh.
Theres a system right there.

1 + 2 are 3

Choose the 1st 3 in the betting in races 1 - 3

The bet is the 1 that comes in 3 times in the betting.

Mein Gott I,m good to you blokes

[Barny]

You need to register yourself as a charity darkydog2002 !!!!!!!!, a beacon to mankind. ;)

[darkydog2002]

Ah.So true Barny.

[Lord Greystoke]

Mein Gott I,m good to you blokesAre you searching for a wonka ticket out of this place or trying to feed the world?

Oi Voi !

LG

[darkydog2002]

Being a modest fellow I dont like to put tickets on myself BUT one could I suppose call me the Mother Theresa of the Punting World.

[Chrome Prince]

It also answers the question, is late money smart money?
;)

[darkydog2002]

Yep Chrome.
Will try the system out tomorrow.

Gees.It might actually work ?

[Chrome Prince]

It comes down to certain money for certain price ranges and certain fluctuation percentages. You can't back all of them that move a bit, or you'll be left out of pocket.

e.g
3 - Magnifisio 2.25, 2.35, 1.8, 1.75 WON
7 - Dark Delight 1.6, 1.65, 1.5, 1.45 WON
6 - Monkstone 4.2, 4.2, 3.1, 3 2ND
8 - Midnight Glory 7, 7, 6, 5.5 3RD
1 - Hai Lil 5, 5.5, 4.6, 4.4 3RD
7 - Pillar Of Creation 10, 11, 8, 7.5 WON
10 - Brave Prince 15, 15, 8, 7.5 UNP
13 - Loot 'n' Run 6, 6, 3.3, 3.2 UNP
7 - Let's Be A Star 11, 11, 7.5, 7 WON
18 - Emblems 3, 3.5, 2.6, 2.5 3RD
4 - Cape Kidnappers 1.6, 1.6, 1.5, 1.45 WON
4 - Nude Secrets 6, 6, 5, 4.8 3RD
7 - Keep It Moist 8, 8, 5, 4.8 UNP
6 - Scalaire 10, 10, 7.5, 7 UNP
4 - Amiconi Originale 5, 5, 4.4, 4 2ND
5 - Natural Disaster 4.2, 4.6, 2.9, 3 UNP
5 - Angelology 2.7, 2.8, 2, 2.2 WON
2 - Beyond Infinity 7, 7, 4.6, 4.4 2ND
7 - Komodo 5, 5, 3.8, 3.6 3RD
10 - Value As 10, 11, 9, 8.5 WON

20 selections
7 winners
8 placings
Win Return at worst SP Fluctuation $29.85
POT 49.25%
35% Win strike rate
75% Place strike rate

Look for the most money at the shortest odds, and anything backed in from double figures into single figures.

[stugots]

CP, is Scone one of your leaders tracks?

Might be a great pointer when such solid shorteners jump out & lead at your leader tracks.

[ianian]

I noticed that the 3 bigger winners opened at $10 or better and shortened in under $10 same as last sat and got rid of a lot of losses.

[ianian]

Just read the names it is last sat daaa.

[Lord Greystoke]

I noticed that the 3 bigger winners opened at $10 or better and shortened in under $10 same as last sat and got rid of a lot of losses.Are we talking tote today at Scone?

LG

[Rinconpaul]

Fav number 12 eh.
Theres a system right there.

1 + 2 are 3

Choose the 1st 3 in the betting in races 1 - 3

The bet is the 1 that comes in 3 times in the betting.

Mein Gott I,m good to you blokes
It will be "Mein Gott" if it ever occurs Darky. A steamer is usually the 2nd fluc is less than the Open OR the 2nd Fluc matches the Open & the next one or two price flucs are less than the Open. e.g. 5.5 4.6 OR 5.5, 5.5, 4.5 OR 5.5, 5.5, 4.5, 4

I've yet to find a steamer that comes in 3 Price Flucs like 5.5, 5, 4.5, 4 not in the last few days anyway. Even if you Back the steamers they still only win about 30% of races.
Might have more success Backing them to run a Place and Laying them to not win.

RP

[Rinconpaul]

20 selections
7 winners
8 placings
Win Return at worst SP Fluctuation $29.85
POT 49.25%
35% Win strike rate
75% Place strike rate

Look for the most money at the shortest odds, and anything backed in from double figures into single figures.
Just to satisfy my curiosity , I did the exercise using rules:
If steamer odds/on Back for Win
If steamer not odds/on Lay to lose and Back for a Place

Result: 29% POT

Those longer priced horses brought home the bacon for the Backers. Might have been a different story if one of the odds/on horses failed to win?
RP

[darkydog2002]

To be honest I wont use this at all.
To wait for a horse to shorten before betting is ridiculous.
If my asessed price is $7.50 and its now $10 I accept the price greedily.

Imagine the other scenario.
"gee its $10 now .I better wait until its $3.

Lock me up in my little padded cell.

[Rinconpaul]

To be honest I wont use this at all.
To wait for a horse to shorten before betting is ridiculous.
If my asessed price is $7.50 and its now $10 I accept the price greedily.

Imagine the other scenario.
"gee its $10 now .I better wait until its $3.

Lock me up in my little padded cell.
Good approach Darky, although I don't mind it shortening, when I Lay it 2 secs before the Close.....lol??

RP

[stugots]

To be honest I wont use this at all.
To wait for a horse to shorten before betting is ridiculous.
If my asessed price is $7.50 and its now $10 I accept the price greedily.

Imagine the other scenario.
"gee its $10 now .I better wait until its $3.

Lock me up in my little padded cell.


Truer words never spoken DD! The bigger the overs the better;)

[stugots]

another from yesterday, ran 2nd

Scone R5
15, 16, 11, 10 9.00 9. TIME TO EXCEED

[Chrome Prince]

You don't necessarily have to take the worst SP price.
There is best tote or Betfair.

1 - Hoedown 4.2, 4.6, 3.2, 3.1 WON Best Tote $3.30 BSP $3.35 (net)
16 - Sharp Looker 8, 10, 6.5, 6 UNP
2 - Beira 3.8, 4.2, 3.1, 3 WON Best Tote $2.90 BSP $3.00 (net)
6 - Papa's Gothic 18, 18, 8.5, 8 UNP
5 - Tiger Jack 4.2, 4.2, 3.8, 3.7 UNP
8 - Monte Carlo 16, 16, 12, 11 3RD
7 - Viper Room 14, 18, 11, 10 UNP
13 - Qamar 10, 10, 6, 7 UNP
1 - Admiral Ruff 6, 6, 4.6, 4.4 2ND
7 - Lopresti 5, 5, 3.4, 3.2 WON Best Tote $3.90 BSP $3.65 (net)
11 - Duke Of Letchworth 8, 9, 5 3RD
2 - Scot Free 4, 4, 2.7, 2.8 2ND
9 - Daph 'n' Alf 8, 10, 7.5, 6.5 2ND
3 - Kash Spot 4.2, 4.2, 2.7, 2.5 UNP
16 - Solidus 9, 9, 4.2, 3.8 UNP
7 - La Cachette 6, 6, 4.8 WON Best Tote $5.20 BSP $5.70 (net)
6 - Lexical Ambiguity 10, 11, 8 UNP

17 Selections
4 Winners
5 Placings

Win S/R 23.53%
Place S/R 52.94%

SP Return 14.10 LOT -17.06%
Best Tote Return 15.30 LOT -10%
BFSP Return 15.70 (net of commission) LOT -7.65%

And this was a a very bad day for winners.

[stugots]

Cessnock R6

10, 10, 7, 6 - 4.20 8. BELIEVE IT (1)

[Barny]

To be honest I wont use this at all.
To wait for a horse to shorten before betting is ridiculous.
If my asessed price is $7.50 and its now $10 I accept the price greedily.

Imagine the other scenario.
"gee its $10 now .I better wait until its $3.

Lock me up in my little padded cell.
10 / 10 ...... ;)

[stugots]

RACE 4 (12:45) - CENTREBEST (1100MM) (BETTING IS CLOSED)

Interim
Result Horse Name Best Fluc SP NSW UNI STAB

1st 2. Bella Sophia 15.00 8.00 6.80 - 2.10 6.40 - 1.70 7.70 -

Form Fluctuations FIXED PRICE Horse Name TOPDIV BEST FLUC

59x 15, 15, 9, 8 8.50 2. BELLA SOPHIA (7) 58.0kg

[SpeedyBen]

Bendigo race 9

Lady Searcy Luxbet 13.0 into 5.50
Won

[SpeedyBen]

To be honest I wont use this at all.
To wait for a horse to shorten before betting is ridiculous.
If my asessed price is $7.50 and its now $10 I accept the price greedily.

Imagine the other scenario.
"gee its $10 now .I better wait until its $3.

Lock me up in my little padded cell.And what do you do if it drifts to $15.0?
Lay it off? Have more on? Nothing?

[stugots]

Bendigo race 9

Lady Searcy Luxbet 13.0 into 5.50
Won


What may turn out to be a useful pointer is when the BF price is around or shorter than the bookies late in betting as they seem to (just on my ob's) do better than those where the BF price is longer than the books.

Hope that made some sort of sense as I didnt spend the spoils on jam this time, a couple of long necks instead;)

[Rinconpaul]

Golden Fiema R4 Gosford was another close call, 40's into 15, came 3rd. I had a $100 on it, but no good!

You're right Speedy in your assessment re the relationship of Betfair v Bookmakers. I've looked into it, but it can be a roller coaster and try to throw you out.

RP

[Rinconpaul]

What may turn out to be a useful pointer is when the BF price is around or shorter than the bookies late in betting as they seem to (just on my ob's) do better than those where the BF price is longer than the books.

;)
Hope you enjoyed those long necks Stugots. I had a look for you over the last 5 days of races using the rule:
Selection IF BF Back Price < Final Fluc at close & BF Back price <= $5

There were 28 selections and 10 winners. Outlay $28 Return $21.69.

RP

[stugots]

why the price filter rp ?, you will notice most I have posted are longer than $5 which is sort of the point, anyway just a bit of fun

[dave101]

And what do you do if it drifts to $15.0?
Lay it off? Have more on? Nothing?Go to the bar and have a double scotch Speedy as the horse is led into the ring covered in sweat and looking like its about to bight the head off the handler. If they drift and don't come back in --goodbye cash. Nearly as silly as betting on an election<label for="rb_iconid_12">http://forums.ozmium.com.au/images/icons/icon12.gif</label>

[Rinconpaul]

why the price filter rp ?, you will notice most I have posted are longer than $5 which is sort of the point, anyway just a bit of funSorry mate, doesn't get any better IF:
BF Back Price < 4th Final Fluc at close & BF Back price > $5 & < $15

Note: this is if there were 4 fluctuations recorded

37 selections and 3 winners. Outlay $37 Return $29.40

Might improve a tad at BFSP or Best Of... bookmakers. Lucky if you break even.

RP

[stugots]

pulling the wrong reign there methinks RP;)

[Rinconpaul]

pulling the wrong reign their methinks RP;)
Riding a VIC horse in NSW you reckon? I must admit I've been hard at it since 4.00am so my brain is starting to get a bit frazzled. I'll check it again later.

RP

[stugots]

All I am really doing RP, mainly to pass the time, is looking for those shortening from double figures into single & if I still like them after a quick look at their form etc have a fun bet on them, often only for the place.

I have noticed on a few occasions with those that went on to win that their BF exchange price was shorter than the bookies, but that's just a very small sample & hardly conclusive in any way, & I guess may be due to bookies laying off.

Anyway, I seriously doubt it would be a winner backing all selections but weeding them out a bit could prove worthwhile.

[Rinconpaul]

There was a good one then Stugots, at Goulburn R3, Irish Gangster Opened at $31 then steamed in to $19 to run a place and pay $4.90.

RP

[The Ocho]

I must admit I've been hard at it since 4.00am so my brain is starting to get a bit frazzled.

RP
That's stamina for you! ;)

[Rinconpaul]

There was a Steamer in the Harbour, Wyong Race 1 No. 6 Glenbaum Dane $21 into $5. My system said Lay it but when I saw the price I Backed it for a Place, came nowhere!

Never change your time proven system rules...!

RP

[Chrome Prince]

In fact all placegetters in that race were solid drifters.
All four steamers, unplaced.
Iceberg ahead :eek:

[stugots]

2yo Tuesday Maiden guys - braver than me!