Why system betting beats punting-long term

[dave101]

We have all had amazing runs punting at the races. Pick up the form guide and the winners seem to 'jump off the page!' Confidence is a wonderful thing.

On the other hand during a bad run of punting, one almost dreads looking at the fields. Instead of a horse jumping off the page, all you see is a maize of horses, appearing almost like the squares on a blank lotto form, with any donkey likely to salute.

System betting, on the other hand, takes away the 'human frailty' element of betting. There is a methodical resume to go through before a horse is selected, and this resume never changes, irrespective of the financial situation. Naturally I am talking about systems using level stakes betting each week.

However for this to occur one must have total confidence in the system. This is where the research is required, and importantly with any research, be totally honest with yourself. Do not fudge the figures in any way to increase your confidence, just do more research, if that is required.

Don't be a smart alec and go on a racing forum and gloat (like I did) about your system. Apart from Murphy's law that often takes you out; you also have that 'human frailty' thing come back into play. That happened with an old bloke like me who should have known better.

As a result I am going back to my professional ways and not posting my tips here. Its then just a contest between me and the bookies, and not a third party who I am trying to impress.

I'll still go in the tipping contest here and as my system rarely picks horses over 6/1 so I can have a punt with no chance of losing!<label for="rb_iconid_12">http://forums.ozmium.com.au/images/icons/icon12.gif</label>

[Puntz]

Its then just a contest between me and the bookies, and not a third party

Enjoyed everyone of your posts davo, and I cannot agree more about the above snippet.
It be way cool to have simple light convos after the event on our respective system's result/failures etc.

My system of things, there is not much to say as the method picks them in such a way I cannot post selections prior. There ain't much to pick these days, everyone has a opinionated tip and there goes the Value.
BTW, the word here , Value, ( grin ) has been a long drawwwnnnn out topic.
But your opinion may settle some old scores, or start new ones!
Is it "value" or "Value", or is 15/1 better than 6/1, or is 6/1 better than 15/1

My version of Value, is to Target for a 25 Unit profit where where the Cost of the bet does not exceed that Target, ( 100% ~Variable). This also applies to Hedged bets and depending on Price, my statistics usually work better with 1-3 runners.
4 runners and you start to blow out the Value concept within the price range of the most probable, where it becomes a no-bet due the Cost exceeding the Target, unless of course you increase the allowance to 30 Units to make 25 Unit Profit.

[Puntz]

We are allowed 7 minutes to edit our posts, or contact the admin.
I could not be bothered, so I posted it again, edited.


Its then just a contest between me and the bookies, and not a third party

Enjoyed everyone of your posts davo, and I cannot agree more about the above snippet.
It be way cool to have simple light convos after the event on our respective system's result/failures etc.

My system of things, there is not much to say as the method picks them in such a way I cannot post selections prior. There ain't much to pick these days, everyone has a opinionated tip and there goes the Value.
BTW, the word here , Value, ( grin ) has been a long drawwwnnnn out topic.
But your opinion may settle some old scores, or start new ones!
Is it "value" or "Value", or is 15/1 better than 6/1, or is 6/1 better than 15/1

My version of Value, is to Target for a 25 Unit profit where where the Cost of the bet does not exceed that Target, ( 100% ~Variable -). This also applies to Hedged bets and depending on Price, my statistics usually work better with 1-3 runners.
4 runners and you start to blow out the Value concept within the price range where the most probable may sometimes exist,and where it becomes a no-bet due the Cost exceeding the Target, unless of course you increase the allowance to 30 Units to make 25 Unit Profit, (100% +).

[dave101]

Enjoyed everyone of your posts davo, and I cannot agree more about the above snippet.
It be way cool to have simple light convos after the event on our respective system's result/failures etc.

My version of Value, is to Target for a 25 Unit profit where where the Cost of the bet does not exceed that Target, ( 100% ~Variable -). This also applies to Hedged bets and depending on Price, my statistics usually work better with 1-3 runners.
4 runners and you start to blow out the Value concept Thanks a million Puntz. You've made my day!

You're target/value idea is the only way to go in my opinion. However I think if a horse is blowing from say 3/1 fav to 6/1 I am extremely worried if I am on that horse. Similarly a 6/1 horse blowing to 10/1 has the nerves tingling. On the other hand if a horse opens at 6/1 and comes in to 3/1 late, I don't think about it costing me $300 but rather, that winning feeling is increased immeasurably.

I am also much more confident if a horse in my system opens at a better price than I rated and doesn't move.

I go for max 2 bets at present (past 5 years) but I did dabble with up to 4 over previous years. You obviously have a lot more hits than if you pick one or two. A good selection method can show huge profits for months but when you have that run of roughies winning it doesn't take long to wipe out the profits.

I also went around 5 years back in the nineties where my rules were much looser and I had selections in up to 10 races out of the 32 or so.(betting in 4 states). Again I had some unbelievable runs, some up to 18 months. With 10 races it usually meant at least 20 bets and that's fine during the good times. However that bad run hit again and wiped me out!

It was then very difficult to tighten up the rules as it often meant eliminating past winners that paid great dividends. However that's what I did, and there were tears of blood as I went back through my form-guides and put a line through many10/1 winners that were no longer in my system.

Cheer mate and thanks again.<label for="rb_iconid_11">http://forums.ozmium.com.au/images/icons/icon11.gif</label>

[Puntz]

I also went around 5 years back in the nineties where my rules were much looser and I had selections in up to 10 races out of the 32 or so.(betting in 4 states). Again I had some unbelievable runs, some up to 18 months. With 10 races it usually meant at least 20 bets and that's fine during the good times. However that bad run hit again and wiped me out!


One HAS to have an edge that is unique and can escape the reflection from prices or form data.

[darkydog2002]

Old Time Bookie Quote.

"Give me a man with a system.In the end he will have his system but I will have his money".

[CosMos]

One of the rules of betting that I observe...never bet with 'scared' money...if you cannot afford to lose the bank you are playing with, do not bet....if you can afford to lose, be fearless and trust your system.

[Lord Greystoke]

Even better...

If you start betting like a mug(e.g. chasing losses), pull the plug .

My version in practice means I withdraw the remaining funds from the account into savings a/c and go spend it on something in the real world. Works better than a fry up in the morning, I can tell you i..e sober up

LG

[darkydog2002]

And never accept anythig under $4 -especially applies if track dead- slow or heavy.(And dead track is NOT dry.)

[Michal]

Old Time Bookie Quote.

"Give me a man with a system.In the end he will have his system but I will have his money".Give me a man with a system. In the end he will have his system but we will have his money Or close his account so he cant get ours.
(the corporate bookie variation)

[Lord Greystoke]

Give me a man with a system. In the end he will have his system but we will have his money Or close his account so he cant get ours.
(the corporate bookie variation)... because when he makes a deposit it goes into our account (and usually stays there!)

Makes you think we should be at least aiming for a return resembling bank interest i.e. retain the capital and a marginal return on funds. Would be an impossible dream for 95%+ of us, me thinks.

LG

[dave101]

Old Time Bookie Quote.

"Give me a man with a system.In the end he will have his system but I will have his money".Old time Chinese proverb. "A fool and his money are soon parted"

...Whether it be with system or without.<label for="rb_iconid_7">http://forums.ozmium.com.au/images/icons/icon7.gif</label>

[dave101]

One of the rules of betting that I observe...never bet with 'scared' money...if you cannot afford to lose the bank you are playing with, do not bet....if you can afford to lose, be fearless and trust your system.Brilliant CosMos!! <label for="rb_iconid_14">http://forums.ozmium.com.au/images/icons/icon14.gif</label><label for="rb_iconid_7">http://forums.ozmium.com.au/images/icons/icon7.gif</label>

[Puntz]

I did not listen to this race, but what "system" would have picked it ?

2013/7/17/
VR/4
Werribee

Distance: 1400M
Weather: Fine
Track: Heavy

10:UNE MOMENTO-
WON PAID: W.45.50 P.6.80 (TATTS)
TF 10* 12* 14 $2255.80
barrier:7
Weight:56.5
L3S:48X
RATED:81
RIDER; J DAROSE

That race more than likely would have had a jackpot Trifecta if it was not for this stupid partial Trifecta bet thing they have.

But someone got it.

The only "system" I see is heavy track, barrier 7, 1400 M
putting heavy emphasis on the heavy track and barrier 7,

fav was showing 1.50

What "system" gets these?
None that I know of.

[dave101]

fav was showing 1.50

What "system" gets these?
None that I know of.The big advantage the punter has over the bookie is that he doesn't have to bet on every race.
In the race you mention, most sensible systems would not have had a selection in this race for two reasons-

(1) Odds on look on
(2) Don't back a system horse if there is an odds on shot in the race

Therefore we didn't win but importantly we came out square<label for="rb_iconid_7">http://forums.ozmium.com.au/images/icons/icon7.gif</label>

[garyf]

I did not listen to this race, but what "system" would have picked it ?

2013/7/17/
VR/4
Werribee

Distance: 1400M
Weather: Fine
Track: Heavy

10:UNE MOMENTO-
WON PAID: W.45.50 P.6.80 (TATTS)
TF 10* 12* 14 $2255.80
barrier:7
Weight:56.5
L3S:48X
RATED:81
RIDER; J DAROSE

That race more than likely would have had a jackpot Trifecta if it was not for this stupid partial Trifecta bet thing they have.

But someone got it.

The only "system" I see is heavy track, barrier 7, 1400 M
putting heavy emphasis on the heavy track and barrier 7,

fav was showing 1.50

What "system" gets these?
None that I know of.Not me that's for sure but the panels in this service,
That i use had them mentioned though not all.

I'm with you here to hard for me to find.

Talking winner only not the exotics.

http://www.skyracing.com.au/tab/form/summary.php?meetingid=57547&raceid=512276&plusday=0

Cheers.
Garyf.

[darkydog2002]

Hi Your Lordship.

Thats why I consider Bernie the most intelligent fellow on the Forum.
He,s got his money parked in a good interest bearing account

Cheers

[The Ocho]

I did not listen to this race, but what "system" would have picked it ?

2013/7/17/
VR/4
Werribee

Distance: 1400M
Weather: Fine
Track: Heavy

10:UNE MOMENTO-
WON PAID: W.45.50 P.6.80 (TATTS)
TF 10* 12* 14 $2255.80
barrier:7
Weight:56.5
L3S:48X
RATED:81
RIDER; J DAROSE

That race more than likely would have had a jackpot Trifecta if it was not for this stupid partial Trifecta bet thing they have.

But someone got it.

The only "system" I see is heavy track, barrier 7, 1400 M
putting heavy emphasis on the heavy track and barrier 7,

fav was showing 1.50

What "system" gets these?
None that I know of.
The back the Italian named horse and extra if the jockey also has an Italian sounding name system (my background is partial Italian). :D

[Rinconpaul]

The only "system" I see is heavy track, barrier 7, 1400 M
putting heavy emphasis on the heavy track and barrier 7,

fav was showing 1.50

What "system" gets these?
None that I know of.

The returning fresh from a spell system! I never Lay a horse returning from a spell, they get up all the time at big prices, just ask Speedy? He backs them all the time.

RP

[Lord Greystoke]

Hi Your Lordship.

Thats why I consider Bernie the most intelligent fellow on the Forum.
He,s got his money parked in a good interest bearing account

CheersPoint taken but after tax, inflation and falling rates, will there be much of a real return left, if any??

There is a better alternative I feel which has a good chance of preserving his capital over a period and gives him a stable return* Better on the tax side too. Won't mention it here for fear of being burned at the stake and also because I am not an investment advisor.

LG

* it feeds off the misfortune of others however but isn't this what we are trying to do here = win on the punt?!

[UselessBettor]

The big advantage the punter has over the bookie is that he doesn't have to bet on every race.
In the race you mention, most sensible systems would not have had a selection in this race for two reasons-

(1) Odds on look on
(2) Don't back a system horse if there is an odds on shot in the race

Therefore we didn't win but importantly we came out square<label for="rb_iconid_7">http://forums.ozmium.com.au/images/icons/icon7.gif</label>
That wouldn't be a great rule for a system that targets odds on shots.

[Puntz]

The back the Italian named horse and extra if the jockey also has an Italian sounding name system (my background is partial Italian).


That's the one, knew I had it somewhere,
"The Italian Job" system
Add extra point if jockey drove Fiat to track.

[dave101]

That wouldn't be a great rule for a system that targets odds on shots.I did say 'sensible' systems...no offense to 'the fireman'<label for="rb_iconid_7">http://forums.ozmium.com.au/images/icons/icon7.gif</label>

[The Ocho]

That's the one, knew I had it somewhere,
"The Italian Job" system
Add extra point if jockey drove Fiat to track.
LOL

:D

[Lord Greystoke]

Who needs to pull an 'Italian job' when you can score a 'Cypriot connection'. Extra point if there is a whiff of ouzo about the starting gates.

LOL indeed !

LG

[Puntz]

LG, we getting there,
Italian Job, Fiats and Ouzo.

CRACKED !

[Lord Greystoke]

We are indeed,
Cookin on 'Puntz Power' I believe.

Life's GOOD!

LG

[Puntz]

nooooo LG

tea n biscuit, no milk system for me mate...

I do have a secret system, "axle grease on bread n cheese" system.
axle grease = Vegemite !

[Lord Greystoke]

I'm thinking from these simple but effective 'axle-greased systems' of yours that you
must also have one or two very efficient ways to win on the punt.. and to think that they all run on the gritty black stuff what comes from the yellow jar.

Power up Puntz - Hand over the blue prints, son!

LG

[SpeedyBen]

The returning fresh from a spell system! I never Lay a horse returning from a spell, they get up all the time at big prices, just ask Speedy? He backs them all the time.

RPOne moment? Easy to pick if you back longshot first uppers.

[Puntz]

LG,
the blueprints are all over this forum, a bit of this and a bit of that.

[bernie]

Thats why I consider Bernie the most intelligent fellow on the Forum.
He,s got his money parked in a good interest bearing account CheersTrue Barny.

However, I am monitoring one of the systems you mentioned on the forum. It's showing signs of success for now. Maybe things will change and I may just take up the punt. Time will tell.

[SpeedyBen]

Hi Your Lordship.

Thats why I consider Bernie the most intelligent fellow on the Forum.
He,s got his money parked in a good interest bearing account

CheersI would starve if I had to live on my savings at 4.5% interest.
Is this a leg pull, DD ?

[bernie]

I would starve if I had to live on my savings at 4.5% interest.Seems you don't have much to invest then? Heard of compouding iterest?

[evajb001]

Off topic but if you can find an account offering 4.5% at the moment without any special terms then you must be riding Aladin's carpet around town. Not to mention once you take inflation away your real interest is more like anything between 1.5-2.5% at the moment, possibly less.

It sounds silly but if someone can even produce 0.5% a day on a bank consistently in this game they should be happy. Many think these gains sound tiny and are worthless, but in retrospect when bank accounts are doing 3% and shares are volatile but yielding 5-6% and your managing 0.5% on a bankroll compounding i know what i'd rather have.

Thats why I aspire to have even one profitable system that could achieve this over an extended period of time, because everyone can generate 3% on a bank account or 5-6% on shares but how many can generate 0.5% a day or even 1% a week on a bankroll by betting - not many.

[Chrome Prince]

I remember I was working in the Bank in 1982, and pensioners were getting 16.75% on term deposits with ESANDA.
How times change!

[rails run]

Don't forget that it's 4% per annum in the high powered Savings Account. So on $10,000 invested you'll be blessed with $400 for the year... less fees, etc.

Here is a simple compounding calculator if anyone would like to give it a try. Cheers but no beers on $33/mth savings interest.

[SpeedyBen]

Seems you don't have much to invest then? Heard of compouding iterest?More than most. No. I don't know what compouding interest is.
Is it something to do with being 9% short of a real word?

[Puntz]

“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it ... he who doesn't ... pays it.”
― Albert Einstein

I can play with the wording in that quote, but it will get me banned.
Clue: just one letter of the alphabet.