Last Start Barrier Position

[beton]

One thing that just caught my attention is that last start barrier position is not considered. I just looked and with all the info regarding the past races in the CSV file, it does not show. I went into bet selector and it did not show. I looked up several old rating sheets and there was nothing. Look on the form and you can get it. Question is “is it relevant?” Not by normal standards anyway. Yet every now and then the issue pops up. My golf buddy says that the race is won and lost atthe barrier draw. UK racing has a booklet that has the barrier results of every track, distance and field. If a trainer draws a barrier he does not like then he scratches. Should previous form be read with barrier position. Is a fifth from barrier 12 in a 14 horse race better than a fifth from barrier 1?

PS Off topic but great upgrade on posting page.

[dave101]

One thing that just caught my attention is that last start barrier position is not considered. Good point bt. I always take into account the barrier of the previous start and most importantly the field size.
However you also have to check the run the horse enjoyed. Barrier 1 is not a good barrier for a slow beginner as they often get buried 6 back on the rail and need the leaders to all leave the rail to get a run up the inside... or peel 4 or 5 deep in the straight.

Alternatively a brilliant beginner can draw wide in a large field and still be in front before the first bend.

In my opinion the main things to look for are (a) did the horse cover extra ground ie 3 deep for a major part of the race, or even 2 deep facing the breeze? (b) Was the horse held up for a run? (c) Did the horse have to be ridden upside down. In other words having to lead when it likes to sit back or having to drift back through the field to get get closer to the rail when it likes to be on the pace.

In saying this, the occasional, and very rare brilliant jockey can make the best of any barrier.

Cheers

Dave

[SpeedyBen]

Strange that this should come up today. I have just finished looking at a sample of races to determine if laying widely drawn favoutites in races with 10 or more starters was profitable.
The results showed that at BF prices there was a slight loss laying favs drawn wider than 10 and a slight profit laying those drawn 1 - 10.

[Rinconpaul]

Hey Speedy, did you catch the ABC show, Kitchen Cabinet, with cooking tips from Senator Xylaphone?..........lol

RP

[Chrome Prince]

Just a quick note that you can test last start barrier position, last start settling position, last start 800m position and last start 400m position in my progam.
(where supplied by the racecelubs).

[beton]

For mine the last start barrier position is a crucial indicator to that result. Apologies to CP but there seems to be a total lack of consideration for it. As with the run itself as Dave noted. A bit like scoring at golf, there is only enough room to put the score and no space to say you lipped it and let it half a ball away. I guess somebody did not see the reason to include or consider and everyone followed.

[Rinconpaul]

After acceptances and then early scratchings, horses left in the race move in along the barriers, right?

Well armed with your R & S barrier position win % for the race distance, you then have to recalculate the Actual barrier horses run from, not as per the program and see which horse might be penalised more than another. You try it on a Saturday after a wet week and heaps of horses are scratched, you soon give up. There's that many other factors to consider for each horse.

Question though, do the race records after the race amend the barrier start positions to compensate for the scratchings?

RP

[mattio]

Beton you can get that data from bet selector in the base files, I'll email you a way to import them into Excel.

Cheers,

Matt.

[dave101]

A
Question though, do the race records after the race amend the barrier start positions to compensate for the scratchings?RPYes they do<label for="rb_iconid_7">http://forums.ozmium.com.au/images/icons/icon7.gif</label>

[SpeedyBen]

Hey Speedy, did you catch the ABC show, Kitchen Cabinet, with cooking tips from Senator Xylaphone?..........lol

RPGood one, RP. I was unaware of it but I'm pleased I missed it.
Can you bet on the winner?

[Rinconpaul]

Good one, RP. I was unaware of it but I'm pleased I missed it.
Can you bet on the winner?

Hehehe.......no I don't think so.......lol

AND thanks Dave for your answer, cheers

RP