Maiden Stable System

[CosMos]

thought I would start a new thread for my Maiden system as I have been assessing it and am happy with it so far. Started a year ago but need many more stable runners to be able to have regular bets as my stable maiden runners don't seem to qualify under my few race filters often enough.

Have rechecked all runners and started a data sheet to record when each is bet and when it is not, depending on 4 race filters.

In my stable, I have had 27 members. This includes one from NZ and 7 from Australia that I have just added. I thought I would try Australian maidens to see how they fare. Of the 7 Australian maidens added who started last week, only three qualified as per my race filters and Hello Bombshell won at $4.50 (Tabcorp).

To go back over my rules: follow each horse for no more than 5 bets, stopping at it's maiden win. To qualify as a stable member, the sire must rate as a Grade 2 or better under my rating system based upon stakes winners and winners to runners. The female line is also important as is the cross of sire over broodmare sire.

Attached is an xcel file detailing stable runners and bets

[TheSchmile]

Hi Cosmos,

I had a look on your website and the results look really promising!

When you say horse must not be 'fresh', do you mean first-up or say must not have had a break of 30-60days?

[CosMos]

Hi TS, must be starting no longer than 30 days since last start or first start...does get the occasional one but saves a few losses as well. As can be seen from the spreadsheet, trainers are apt to move a horse more than 200m up or down from it's last race. From my study over the years, most horses seem to win within the band of 200m plus or minus their last start distance.

[CosMos]

if anyone is still looking...

Stable horses to 21/8/13

31 horses in stable
21 horses have had bets
outlay for $10.00 = $260.00
Return = $870.70
Profit = $610.70 (235%)

Taking 2 race filters into consideration:
9 horses won at first bet
1 horse at second bet
2 horses at third bet

Highest dividend $29.80 (NSW)
Lowest dividend $1.90 (NSW)
From Aug. 2012 to Aug 2013

[CosMos]

I am surprised no one has commented as this system is based on breeding with just a couple of race day filters. I guess over 200% profit does not appeal to most.

I have updated the spreadsheet I posted earlier and will upload if anyone is interested.

[evajb001]

CosMos,

I had a read and thought they were great results. It does interest me a little but i've never looked at the breeding side of horse selection and in particular almost never look at betting on maiden races.

How much time does it take you to identify horses for your stable?

[mattio]

CosMos,

I agree with Josh, I am interested in how you go about your system but I too never bet on maiden races and the ratings I do would take an eternity if I tried to include breeding because atm my database doesn't have any breeding information to run stats against so I would have to do it all manually.

[CosMos]

Thanks for showing interest and replying guys. Much appreciated.

I only have to scan down the sires in a maiden race to identify which will meet the first criteria...Grade 2+ on my rating system. I then use an age filter to further cut the list. I figure that any maiden not having won a race by age 5 is not worth following. I also check how many runs they have had. A maiden with too many races is a worry. Then I look at the dam/granddam of any qualifier to see what they have produced.

A further requirement is based upon the cross of sire over broodmare sire. Must meet certain requirements.

Just ran a test on race 3 at Woodville today and identified initially 2 horses that qualify on age and sire. A quick check of their female line disqualified them so no horses to follow from that race. Took around 4 minutes to do.

If there were any qualifiers then would take a couple of minutes more.

This is an example of using my race filters of days since last start and distance last start to qualify as a bet.

D'Chaparral chosen 8/9/12 but back from an 11 week spell so no bet, runs 8th. Goes for another spell and comes back 8 months later, no bet, runs 2nd. Starts 24 days later but up 600m, no bet, runs 2nd. Next start bet as 21 days and same distance, runs 6th. Next start no bet as up 400m, runs 2nd. Next start no bet as down 400m, runs 3rd.

Have seen a few doing this as the trainer tries to find a suitable distance and they run a place or finish down the track.

Stewards report for D'Chaparral on the race where he would have been bet and ran 6th: When spoken to regarding the disappointing performance of favourite D’CHAPARRAL rider R Hannam advised that from his 1 barrier draw he had been trapped down near the rail which was the worst part of the track and had only battled away over the concluding stages.

So one bet with a reason for failure and all other no bet races the horse placed. Will win if qualifying under the race filters IMHO

[evajb001]

CosMos,

So essentially the age, distance change, Days Last Start and Career Starts filters can be applied to any maidens straight away to narrow down the field on a simple spreadsheet.

The time consuming part (as far as I can tell) is looking at the sire, dam etc etc in terms of your grading. I honestly have about zero idea when it comes to the breeding etc so this is all new to me, but I assume you look at various stats of the parents/grandparents to work out the vaibility (grading) of the horse running?

This essentially means that your grading technique is what sets your selections apart as anyone could add the other filters above with ease.

[CosMos]

yes you are correct. The setting up of the grading system is what takes time. I grade sires and dams based upon winners to runners and stakes winners to runners allowing for opportunity. A Grade 1 sire is one who has achieved what was expected on average to just above that average, Grade 2 a more successful sire right through to Grade 6. An elite sire or dam is one that has had a profound influence and is elevated to that Grade because of their sons and daughters influence.

In maiden races, even sires that don't make the cut (ie. downgraders) can also throw winners. The trick is to only follow those sires that have that extra class. If I was backing each maiden race per se, the grading would be meaningless.

[CosMos]

an edited version of my gradings...have hundreds sire, dams on original.

[evajb001]

So essentially any sire's and dam's that perform below the overall average are simply not graded and discarded. and then from there the gradings progressively increase with Grade 1 beving average and Grade 6 being exceptional?

Sounds like a reasonably simple approach but as you've said it could be a time consuming exercise to bring together the results of all the sire's/dam's "children". You'd have to have a database that would allow you to do so, or to complete it manually would be time consuming but rewarding once you have it in place.

The way you've approached this is similar to how i'm approaching my current backing endeavour, find a niche thats not readily available or easily constructed for the public and get it into a profitable methodology.

On a side note, have you or do you utilize the gradings to change your staking?

Just as an example if all race/horse filters are met:

Grade 6 sire / Grade 6 Dam: Back for 12 points
Grade 3 sire / Grade 5 Dam: Back for 8 points
Grade 4 sire / Grade 1 Dam: Back for 5 points

etc etc or some variation of this?

Would be interesting to see (if you haven't already) if this increases your profitability and/or what Gradings offer the best POT. For example a horse that has grade 6 sire/dam may be a little overbet due to its expectional parents and therefore have a lower POT compared to say a horse with grade 4 sire/dam as they are a little less underrated possibly by bettors and offer more value?

Sorry for all the questions, just some ideas i picked up

[CosMos]

I can have 5 to 6 web pages open at any given time as I construct my gradings. Yes it is time consuming but worth it. Sires that have a lower number of runners may change in grading depending on what their progeny do so it is an ongoing process. On the other hand, a sire with many progeny, say 500+ may not change their grading at all as it takes quite a swing in performance to change the grade. A dam could change a rating easily if she produced a stakes winner for instance.

The Grades are also reflective of racing and not breeding. What I mean by that is the gradings do not take in to account all foals of a sire for instance, only those that get to the races and influence our punting. Winners to runners shows what chance we have of the system horse being a winner on average, of course the female line may give it a higher chance. Stakes winners to runners tells us if the sire or dam in question can impart class.

[evajb001]

It does sound like something you could start from scratch reasonably easily and build on it as you go. I guess if you knew the right websites to have open then it could be reasonably easy and quick to update the gradings.

Maybe it could be a project for me if/when i finalise my current speed/pace approach with some success. I'm always interested in looking at angles for doing things which are not readily available or easily achievable to Joe Blow.

[CosMos]

So essentially any sire's and dam's that perform below the overall average are simply not graded and discarded. and then from there the gradings progressively increase with Grade 1 beving average and Grade 6 being exceptional?

On a side note, have you or do you utilize the gradings to change your staking?

Just as an example if all race/horse filters are met:

Grade 6 sire / Grade 6 Dam: Back for 12 points
Grade 3 sire / Grade 5 Dam: Back for 8 points
Grade 4 sire / Grade 1 Dam: Back for 5 points

etc etc or some variation of this?



Still playing with this but because I am concerned with hitting that first win then it does not matter what the horse does after that so if it wins just one race I profit (hopefully)...the rating of sire or dam could play a part in the prediction of the horse having class and going on with further wins...further research needed.

[TheSchmile]

Hi Cosmos,

Would you wager that ACAPELA (NZ)
b. M, 2007 DP = 2-4-9-3-0 (18) DI = 1.40 CD = 0.28 - 13 Starts, 4 Wins, 0 Places, 2 Shows Career Earnings: NZ$44,687

will run a strong 1900m this Saturday?

Very interested in your analysis and hope you're counting the cash from another successful maiden raid!! :)

[CosMos]

hey there TS...my thoughts are that Acapela should get 1400m to 2000m or thereabouts. All it's runs have been around the 1400-1600m mark so should get first try at 1900m. Her sire Elusive City is speed.

Has a good stamina/speed input with the damside female line providing stamina input by Carnegie, Whiskey Road, Showdown and Bellborough.

Dam Taylor's Park won a 1600m maiden, granddam Slightly Pink won 2 races at 1400m & 2150m, 3rd dam Red Rebecca won to 2050m, 4th dam Bellition won to 2800m.

[TheSchmile]

Thanks Cosmos,

I'm delving ever deeper in the world of breeding and dosages.

I always appreciate your analysis!

Hope all is well with you.

[CosMos]

not much happening on the maiden system at the moment but my Pedigree of the Week page carries on it's winning way...today at Hastings Philippa Charlotte wins at $7.60 (NZ TAB)

[CosMos]

Have added to my stable ...Paeroa 02 Sept. 2013 race 6 Maiden. Julieta 4yo mare by Darci Brahma out of Mareva by Zabeel. 3x2 Zabeel via daughter's Grand Echezeaux and Mareva. First foal of dam. Granddam Summary (Tierce) 7 runners, 5 winners incl. G2 winner, G1 placed Shikoba. 3rd dam Pampas Fire (Prince True) 7 runners, 5 winners incl. stakes winner Cloister (MRC Debutante Stakes). 4th dam Summoned (Crowned Prince) 16 runners, 13 winners incl. 5 stakes winners and dam of sire Zeditave.

Two starts, the first when 10th at Hawera on 16 May 2013 over 1200m. Put aside for 81 days before running 7th fresh up at Stratford on 05 Aug. 2013 over 1200m. Freshened from that run and steps up to 1350m here. Looks an improver and one to follow.

[CosMos]

The interesting thing so far is that not one of the stable runners has won when it has been deemed a no bet under my race filters.

[Lord Greystoke]

The interesting thing so far is that not one of the stable runners has won when it has been deemed a no bet under my race filters.And also that not many showing an interest?

LG

[CosMos]

and yet over 700 views...I guess a system that takes a bit of hard work is beyond most...:)

[Lord Greystoke]

Cosmos,

I think the interesting thing about your approach is in following a quality stable of novices until they win under certain conditions, and replenishing it as you go (if that is what you are doing). Staying focused on a niche play is surely key to winning long term on the punt, or at least half the challenge. Unless of course you have built a collection/portfolio of these but even then, you are still executing on them one at a time.The effort would seem to be in the recording and monitoring of the stable but this could be automated to a degree.

LG

[CosMos]

thanks LG, maiden winners can come from anywhere so narrowing down the better bred ones to follow is a must. Combining the sire along with the female line means that hopefully the right number of good genes will get through.

The hard part is quantifying the sires, once done it is then easy to narrow down the maiden to follow. Allowing for age and just 2 race filters to point to when they should be bet works for me. I have tried building different systems for many years and time and time again it comes back to keeping it simple...just 2 important race filters.

I need many more maidens to follow to get consistent betting, a small stable means weeks without a bet. Think I am on to something here so will keep on going.

cheers, Rich

[CosMos]

thought i had gone didn't you LOL...anyway, latest member of my stable.

King's Rock (3c) by Fastnet Rock (AUS) out of Nureyev's Girl (AUS) by Nureyev (USA)
11 September 2013 Te Rapa Maiden 1400m
Dam Line: 4M Magnolia (1841) by Glencoe out of Myrtle. Through Maggie B.B. (1867) by Australian out of Madeline. Through elite mare Mock Orange (1959) by Dedicate out of Alablue.
Dam Line Production: Nureyev's Girl (Nureyev) 4f-4r-3w 1SW (G1W King's Rose); Lakab (Manila) 13f-11r-8w 3SW (LW European Rose, G3W Hessonite, LW Roanoke); River Lullaby (Riverman) 11f-8r-6w 3SW (G3W Run Softly, G2W Wixim, G3W Berceau)
Dam Rating: +2.0
Dam Line rating: +7.38
Cross: Fastnet Rock x Nureyev 6f-4r-3w 1SW
Cross rating: +2.00
Linebreeding: Northern Dancer 4x5x3x5x5, Natalma 5x5x6x4x6x6
Pedigree analysis: Northern Dancer (5) 28.1%, Natalma (6) 17.2%, Nearco (13) 9.6%, St Simon (175) 7.5%, Hyperion (11) 6.4%.

King's Rock is a 3yo colt that I noticed before his first start at Te Rapa on 11 Sept. 2013 when he was in last few, made run turn but plenty to do straight, strong run from 200m to just get up. There is more in this impeccably bred colt trained by Jason Bridgman. With 5 lines of Northern Dancer and and extra line of his dam Natalma, 6 in all, and a powerful stakes winning female line close up travelling back via reines Mock Orange and her dam Alablue to reine Maggie B.B. The sensational aspect of his pedigree though is his relationship with G1 winner Anabandana. King's Rock is by a grandson of Danzig out of Nureyev's Girl by Nureyev out of Lakab. Anabandana is by a son of Danzig out of Great Notice, a full sister to Nureyev's Girl.

Watch this fellow. Had him selected before I knew about his relationship with Anabandana.

[Lord Greystoke]

Good find Cosmos. Are you going to update your spreadsheet on the website out of interest?

Cheers LG

[CosMos]

will do LG, have been doing some in depth research on other ways to choose a horse to follow...cheers, Rich

[CosMos]

all updated and still a healthy 127% profit. Let's see if the non winners left will produce (fingers crossed)

[Lord Greystoke]

all updated and still a healthy 127% profit. Let's see if the non winners left will produce (fingers crossed)Thanks CosMos. It's contributors like you that make this place a great one.

Cheers LG

[CosMos]

thank you kind sir...hopefully my research will continue to point the way to future riches LOL

[CosMos]

anyone still interested...

42 stable runners to date

Non-winners 20 + 5 winners when no bet
Outlay $33.00
Loss $33.00

Winners 17
Outlay $28.00
Return $116.00
Profit $88.00

Overall outlay (winners/non-winners) $61.00
Overall Profit $55.00
90.2% profit

Remove highest dividend $34.00
outlay $60.00 profit $21.00
35% profit

Still a healthy profit on outlay

[Lord Greystoke]

anyone still interested...


Remove highest dividend $34.00
outlay $60.00 profit $21.00
35% profit

Still a healthy profit on outlay“First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win... and keep winning”

Keep it coming CosMos.

Cheers LG

[CosMos]

cheers LG...still some very promising stable runners going close to a win...just need that bit extra.