Lucky system bet

[dave101]

Had a good win today when if I had been at the races I would have torn up my ticket just after the jump.

I backed the early favourite Mount Nebo and at the time I was glad it blew a bit in the betting. It was because of a plunge on Windswept backed from around 7s into around 5/2 favourite.

Bad legged horse resuming after 12 months off from a serious injury. Loads of money for it but for me it was a huge risk...and it ran a shocker. All it did was give a better price for the other favoured horses.

Mount Nebo must race on the pace...hmm However he missed the kick by a couple of lengths. Immediately I thought it was a bad decision, and would have sold my ticker for half a schooner. Great ride by the kid, who didn't panic and just stayed in touch and it finished like a real tough horse. Maybe he'll be an even better horse ridden back!

[SpeedyBen]

I've been doing some stats work for a well known ratings provider on Melb Sat races. I've found several areas of weakness and some of excellent strength. One of his selections today was Reparations in race 9 but it didn't make it through his filters to be backed. My suggested changes to his ratings had it in the secong highest statistical category. I couldn't resist the $20 on BF. Never have I seen a horse racing in 9th position looking like a winner so far from home.
Cruised home. Bewdiful.

[Rinconpaul]

I've been doing some stats work for a well known ratings provider on Melb Sat races.
What !!...are you Vic Aspinall's Go-To man in the West, Speedy..??


RP

[SpeedyBen]

What !!...are you Vic Aspinall's Go-To man in the West, Speedy..??


RPCan't say, RP. I just provide a statistical approach to the data I'm given. The horses are irrelevant to what I do. I look at race types, tracks, rated position and correlation between different plans offered and anything else that I care to look at.
I have found that ratings people tend to fall in love with their own ratings, understandably, and sometimes can't see the poor areas.
I had no idea whether the R8 winner yesterday was a good bet but I knew that statistically it was an excellent bet and way over the odds for its category.

[Rinconpaul]

Can't say, RP.
I'm thinking you might be like a real life character I read about in the US. A noteworthy sports bettor that a BIG syndicate took under their wing. Gave him a briefcase full of money, told him to negotiate what ever deal he wanted with the Las Vegas casinos, plush penthouse, hot & cold running women and booze, just make em' a buck.

Is that what your lifestyle's all about....??....lol

Have a Great Day.........RP

[SpeedyBen]

You're onto me ! Except for the plush penthouse, hot & cold running women and booze that describes my life perfectly.

[Rinconpaul]

You're onto me ! Except for the plush penthouse, hot & cold running women and booze that describes my life perfectly.
hehehee...Speedy, the Secret Squirrel of the West...lol

RP

[SpeedyBen]

We do have a possum living in our roof. Does that count?

[dave101]

<label for="rb_iconid_12"></label>Bo<label for="rb_iconid_12"></label><label for="rb_iconid_12"></label>y, am I getting slow in my old age. I just f<label for="rb_iconid_12"></label>igured out how forums work!

<label for="rb_iconid_12"></label>Lucky system bet = possum in roof! <label for="rb_iconid_12">http://forums.ozmium.com.au/images/icons/icon12.gif</label>


<label for="rb_iconid_12"></label>

[evajb001]

Speedy, While i've been looking at a pace approach i've also started looking at doing ratings based on the fundamentals/form of the horse. The dataset i've got at the moment is small but Reparations was 3rd fave going by my Fundamentals/Form approach.

Unfortunately I had a crack at the first 4, had veewap been half a length slower I would've pocketed $2k, instead I managed to lose $25.

I've found that my ratings approach performs best on the races with no age and gender restrictions, which has been something garyf has pointed out for a long time.

[SpeedyBen]

Speedy, While i've been looking at a pace approach i've also started looking at doing ratings based on the fundamentals/form of the horse. The dataset i've got at the moment is small but Reparations was 3rd fave going by my Fundamentals/Form approach.

Unfortunately I had a crack at the first 4, had veewap been half a length slower I would've pocketed $2k, instead I managed to lose $25.

I've found that my ratings approach performs best on the races with no age and gender restrictions, which has been something garyf has pointed out for a long time.Hi JB
The ones I've been looking at are poor at evaluating 3YOs except where the race is set weights. Surprisingly, to me, they are v good at mares races.

[SpeedyBen]

<label for="rb_iconid_12"></label>Bo<label for="rb_iconid_12"></label><label for="rb_iconid_12"></label>y, am I getting slow in my old age. I just f<label for="rb_iconid_12"></label>igured out how forums work!

<label for="rb_iconid_12"></label>Lucky system bet = possum in roof! <label for="rb_iconid_12">http://forums.ozmium.com.au/images/icons/icon12.gif</label>


<label for="rb_iconid_12"></label>Wait until I get onto the mice in the pantry and the bandicoots in the backyard, Dave.

[dave101]

I've obviously been up too long. Not enough time between runs. Ready for a well deserved spell! <label for="rb_iconid_3">http://forums.ozmium.com.au/images/icons/icon3.gif</label><label for="rb_iconid_1">http://forums.ozmium.com.au/images/icons/icon1.gif</label><label for="rb_iconid_3">http://forums.ozmium.com.au/images/icons/icon3.gif</label>