View Full Version : Ratings2Win Home Track Advantage - Does it exist and can you profit from it?
PaulD01
1st August 2013, 09:39 AM
Ratings2Win Home Track Advantage - Does it exist and can you profit from it?
________________________________________
There has always been debate from form analysts and media commentators regarding the issue of whether a home track advantage exists for individual trainers. Some examples of this would be Peter Snowden (Warwick Farm), Gai Waterhouse (Randwick), and Chris Waller (Rosehill).
Can you make money from horses that have a Home Track Advantage?
The statistics show that for metropolitan racing the notion of home track advantage does not exist. The same does not apply though to provincial and country racing. In these jurisdictions our data demonstrates conclusively that when combined with a few other unique variables (found only in R2W data) that the home track advantage can deliver significant profits from a strong sample size.
So the answer to can you make money from horses that have a home track advantage? is YES, providing you have access to the unique data and variables contained within R2W Axis.
Following on from our successful Profitable Favourites system, we have once again employed the Axis Selection Finder and Analyser for the purposes of developing a system based around the Home Track Advantage theme. For a limited period of time the FREE selections from this system will be showcased on this forum and our website. They will take over from the Profitable Favourites selections.
The historical results for the Home Track Advantage system are as follows:
Long term Results: 05/03/2010 to 31/07/2013. 1245 days.
Cumulative Number of Bets - 2,822
(2 per day on average)
Strike Rate - 28.2%
Positive POT 14.30% (best of NSW/SP).
See the historical results file updated to end of July 2013 (attached to this thread)
Details: These selections are bets regardless of price or track condition. Expect around 2 selections per day on average.
Betting Analysis: (assumes the better of SP or NSW tote)
Assumes a starting bank of $10,000.
Flat Staking betting 1% of starting bank: $40,522.00, maximum bank risk 22.4% and average bank risk 9.8%.
Constant Proportional betting to collect 4% of starting bank: $24,128.69, maximum bank risk 19.3% and average bank risk 8.5%.
Variable Proportional betting to collect 4% of bank: $57,662.25, maximum bank risk 52.8% and average bank risk 11.7%.
Importantly you can obtain the rules for any system found on this forum or our website by purchasing the appropriate Axis stater pack and annual subscription. Please contact Neil for more details http://www.propun.com.au/contact/
PaulD01
1st August 2013, 09:51 AM
01/08/2013
13:07 COFFS 2 13 Skatedate
15:31 COFFS 6 4 Dont Get Me Rong
15:50 ROCKY 6 12 Black Point
Michal
3rd August 2013, 09:40 AM
03/08/2013
11:25 GOLD 1 2 Giant Crusher
14:35 KEMBL 5 6 Country Hustle
15:15 KEMBL 6 5 Arms Length
15:45 GOLD 8 1 Whisky Highway
17:12 CALOU 1 1 Pickabee
Michal
4th August 2013, 10:20 AM
04/08/2013
14:20 CALOU 4 3 Surf Fire
15:16 CARNV 4 1 Aytozed
15:31 CALOU 6 3 Ten To Zero
15:49 KALGL 2 7 Light N Easy
17:40 KALGL 5 6 Last Charge
Michal
5th August 2013, 09:16 AM
no selections 05/08/2013
Michal
6th August 2013, 09:26 AM
06/08/2013
13:20 TVILL 1 5 Little Elliot
16:50 TAREE 7 11 Reckon Im Ransom
Michal
7th August 2013, 10:11 AM
07/08/2013
No selections
Michal
8th August 2013, 09:47 AM
08/08/2013
No selections
Michal
9th August 2013, 10:15 AM
09/08/2013
14:35 GEESY 7 1 Jordan
16:05 WYONG 7 6 I Like The Boy
16:15 IPSWI 7 7 Tigerprint
16:45 WYONG 8 4 Centabeel
Michal
10th August 2013, 10:52 AM
10/08/2013
15:45 GOLD 7 1 Brigadoon Jack
Michal
11th August 2013, 09:09 AM
11/08/2013
14:00 CRANB 6 6 Soldiers March
15:44 KALGL 2 4 Bear Rio
15:48 CRANB 9 10 True Brave
16:55 KALGL 4 2 Full Metal Jacket
17:35 KALGL 5 8 Jenkye
Michal
12th August 2013, 10:15 AM
12/08/2013
13:23 TAMWT 3 6 Dayzari
13:58 TAMWT 4 6 Rainbow Dane
Michal
13th August 2013, 09:46 AM
13/08/2013
12:55 MORNI 4 9 Nordic But Nice
13:02 MURWI 1 1 Rapid Heartbreaker
13:30 MORNI 5 2 Excursions
15:22 MURWI 5 1 Caldetes
15:40 CALOU 5 4 Auguste
Michal
14th August 2013, 10:42 AM
A nice spring back to take the method back to normal performance yesterday.
14/08/2013
15:48 STRAT 6 2 Dunrossil
PaulD01
14th August 2013, 03:37 PM
Hi All
Further to the official posting of free tips for our current system Home Track Advantage I thought I would attach the current betting results (albeit for a short period) as a means of showing what type of analysis can be produced from our betting analyser module that forms part of all Axis subscription levels.
Whilst the analysis currently shows a strike rate of around 24% (20% below long term performance) the profits enjoyed betting proportionally to collect 4% of your starting bank have delivered profit of around 18% POT.
Michal
15th August 2013, 10:21 AM
15/08/2013
13:05 ROCKY 1 8 Space Jam
16:10 ROCKY 6 12 Dumuzi
Michal
16th August 2013, 09:09 AM
16/08/2013
14:13 ACTON 4 4 Argentine Queen
14:40 GEESY 5 7 Tiger Jack
16:05 ACTON 7 2 Game Of Chance
PaulD01
18th August 2013, 09:34 AM
18/08/2013
13:35 CALOU 3 12 Petroni
15:22 CALOU 6 3 Surf Fire
15:30 PAKEN 5 2 Aussie Public
15:57 CALOU 7 1 On The Deck
17:35 KALGL 5 2 Prince Of Stars
PaulD01
19th August 2013, 08:34 AM
No selections for today (19/08/2013)
PaulD01
20th August 2013, 08:23 AM
20/08/2013
14:30 MACKA 2 8 Soap Box Sally
15:05 MACKA 3 5 Littlemissperfect
16:18 MACKA 5 1 Lexcen
PaulD01
21st August 2013, 08:40 AM
No selections for today (21/08/2013)
PaulD01
22nd August 2013, 07:58 AM
22/08/2013
14:25 HAWK2 4 6 Magita
PaulD01
23rd August 2013, 09:39 AM
23/08/2013
16:45 GEESY 8 2 Jordan
PaulD01
24th August 2013, 08:36 AM
24/08/2013
14:02 TVILL 3 1 Cousin Andy
20:55 CALOU 7 3 Waynes Gift
PaulD01
25th August 2013, 10:18 AM
25/08/2013
13:35 CALOU 3 5 Kappytain
15:49 KALGL 2 9 Riddle
PaulD01
26th August 2013, 08:34 AM
26/08/2013
13:50 WBOOL 3 9 Smile Coming Thru
14:25 WBOOL 4 1 Arties Shore
PaulD01
27th August 2013, 08:14 AM
27/08/2013
13:23 TAMWT 1 2 Maughan
14:05 BDSRT 2 8 Geiger Baby
16:28 BDSRT 6 1 Daads Order
PaulD01
28th August 2013, 09:11 AM
28/08/2013
No selections today
PaulD01
29th August 2013, 09:04 AM
29/08/2013
12:20 MORNI 1 9 Swiss Flyer
14:45 MORNI 5 5 Tricky Boy
PaulD01
30th August 2013, 09:39 AM
30/08/2013
17:10 ACTON 8 3 Doubtful Miss
PaulD01
31st August 2013, 12:58 PM
31/08/2013
14:05 GOLD 4 5 Spurs And Sashes
17:02 ARMDL 6 1 Rhodonite
17:35 CALOU 1 2 Overrule
18:12 CARNV 4 1 Aytozed
19:29 CARNV 6 1 In Plain Sight
19:57 CALOU 5 3 Tambos Jewel
Michal
1st September 2013, 10:27 AM
01/09/2013
16:15 BALLN 6 5 Magic Shuffle
16:55 BALLN 7 5 Lolas Choice
19:10 KALGL 7 1 Prince Of Stars
Michal
1st September 2013, 10:35 AM
Home track Advantage August Results;
Bets 66
Wins 12
SR 18.2%
POT -30%
Not the best of starts, especially with 17 outs during the run. That's punting and we just keep going. Not yet ready to bow out to the forum curse. These figures are normal in the process of obtaining the results that we get and while they are not pleasant to endure they are part and parcel of punting and we report it the way it is.
PaulD01
2nd September 2013, 08:36 AM
02/09/2013
16:55 WODON 7 1 Providential
Lord Greystoke
2nd September 2013, 09:52 AM
Home track Advantage August Results;
Bets 66
Wins 12
SR 18.2%
POT -30%
Not the best of starts, especially with 17 outs during the run. That's punting and we just keep going. Not yet ready to bow out to the forum curse. These figures are normal in the process of obtaining the results that we get and while they are not pleasant to endure they are part and parcel of punting and we report it the way it is.Morning Michal,
Where might you expect the SR to be over the longer term, ball park?
LG
PaulD01
2nd September 2013, 10:01 AM
Morning Michal,
Where might you expect the SR to be over the longer term, ball park?
LG
Hi LG. In answer to your question see initial post below
http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=26905&page=4&pp=10
Post #1
Lord Greystoke
2nd September 2013, 10:14 AM
Thanks Paul - noted.
A good example of variance, I believe.
Cheers LG
PaulD01
3rd September 2013, 07:32 AM
02/09/2013
16:55 WODON 7 1 Providential
Nice to start September on the right note with 1 selection for a winner. Top Fluctuation $10 SP $6
PaulD01
3rd September 2013, 08:39 AM
03/09/2013
14:15 MACKA 2 6 Rofranoz
14:50 MACKA 3 2 Payteevee
16:38 MACKA 6 2 Lexcen
17:10 TAMWT 7 1 Elsalinda
Michal
4th September 2013, 09:21 AM
04/09/2013
13:05 CRANB 3 2 Dehere Cat
16:05 CRANB 8 8 Rich Jack
PaulD01
5th September 2013, 09:02 AM
05/09/2013
17:00 WYONG 8 6 Whispering Gap
PaulD01
6th September 2013, 08:27 AM
06/09/2013
13:05 CAIRN 1 6 Bazzas Bid
17:15 WYONG 8 9 I Like The Boy
PaulD01
7th September 2013, 08:56 AM
07/09/2013
12:50 CAIRN 1 2 Dr Pegasus
13:52 GOLD 2 8 Give It Berries
18:50 CALOU 3 2 Brilliant Rose
19:25 CALOU 4 7 Quiet Collect
PaulD01
8th September 2013, 09:56 AM
08/09/2013
15:04 MORUY 4 2 Zuccherina
16:39 KALGL 3 1 Hussars
17:15 KALGL 4 3 The Social Network
PaulD01
9th September 2013, 08:00 AM
09/09/2013
12:40 WBOOL 1 3 Just Junior
15:22 ALBUR 4 2 Win For Wilson
PaulD01
10th September 2013, 09:06 AM
10/09/2013
13:23 KEMBL 2 1 Zaminga
13:47 MUSWE 2 5 Canny Maree
15:15 TVILL 3 2 Zip The Lip
15:50 TVILL 4 7 Jessette
16:28 TVILL 5 4 Zatsacat
PaulD01
11th September 2013, 08:31 AM
11/09/2013
17:30 STRAT 8 4 Dunrossil
PaulD01
12th September 2013, 08:21 AM
12/09/2013
14:03 ROCKY 2 6 Dropper Crystal
14:38 ROCKY 3 1 Mythologist
15:48 ROCKY 5 1 Greedy
16:28 ROCKY 6 1 Passivity
PaulD01
13th September 2013, 09:08 AM
13/09/2013
17:10 BALLN 8 1 Muhaajir
PaulD01
14th September 2013, 08:55 AM
14/09/2013
12:15 GOLD 2 10 Easy To Smile
12:50 GOLD 3 8 Sylvia May
14:05 GOLD 5 3 One To Go
15:25 GOLD 7 5 Sand Biscuit
15:32 TOOIN 4 8 Manak
16:12 TOOIN 5 8 Court Couture
17:37 CARNV 5 4 Aytozed
18:52 CARNV 7 1 In Plain Sight
PaulD01
15th September 2013, 08:50 AM
15/09/2013
13:20 CALOU 2 1 Beautrix
14:30 CALOU 4 2 Indubious
15:16 DUBBO 5 1 Criminal Mind
15:50 CASTE 7 6 Lil Bit Musky
15:54 DUBBO 6 5 Ten To Zero
16:42 KALGL 3 10 Prince Of Stars
PaulD01
16th September 2013, 07:58 AM
16/09/2013
15:17 NOWRA 4 2 Kordanoro
PaulD01
17th September 2013, 08:03 AM
17/09/2013
No selections for today
PaulD01
18th September 2013, 08:11 AM
18/09/2013
No selections for today
PaulD01
20th September 2013, 09:43 AM
20/09/2013
No selections for today.
PaulD01
21st September 2013, 09:09 AM
21/09/2013
13:30 GOLD 2 10 Grandkids Rock
16:10 GOLD 6 4 Powerful Jet
16:50 GOLD 7 1 Novikov
18:00 KALGL 6 7 Quadroplex
19:20 KALGL 8 6 Prince Of Stars
PaulD01
22nd September 2013, 09:06 AM
22/09/2013
14:00 QUEAN 3 2 Mcgovern
PaulD01
23rd September 2013, 08:56 AM
23/09/2013
14:53 MUSWE 3 8 Flirtatious Glow
PaulD01
24th September 2013, 08:40 AM
24/09/2013
No selections today
Michal
25th September 2013, 09:08 AM
25/09/2013 15:03 MURRA 4 3 Mystery Tour
PaulD01
26th September 2013, 09:06 AM
26/09/2013
17:23 ROCKY 6 4 Head High
Raven
26th September 2013, 05:17 PM
Hi Paul,
I ran a home track test in Axis, and even in my limited data sample I can see where you are coming from, particularly IND horses. But did you notice the performance of a certain age group?
I decided to run this test in my bet selector data, Saturdays only, at least 1 career start, over the period Jan 2008 to Aug 2013:
Bets 3313
Wins 445
Outlay at NSW div: $47147 (proportional staking)
Return at NSW div: $48166
POT: 2.16%
Bears investigating further.
PaulD01
26th September 2013, 05:48 PM
Hi Paul,
I ran a home track test in Axis, and even in my limited data sample I can see where you are coming from, particularly IND horses. But did you notice the performance of a certain age group?
Hi Raven
Yes having the ability to run system tests using the R2W propriety indicators is a valuable asset. For Axis users its easy however for anyone considering the product, one only has to go as far as our Recent Winning Highlights thread or our website to see how these perform. Indicators as you may not be aware are a group of horses that win around 52% of all races. They have an uncanny knack of landing longer priced winners even in the metro area.
Yes I did notice the performance of all age groups. There are many ways to improve the native results of this system including using our unique jockey ratings ad LWD ranks as you can see from the results.
For those wanting a better understanding of what our unique features are just click on the link below.
http://www.ratings2win.com.au/Downloads/Unique%20Characteristics.pdf
Allowing for results up to the yesterday, the profit on a $10,000 bank betting proportionally on all the selections in the system has delivered a massive $20,505 profit. Of course that is only using SP/NSW tote which can obviously be easily bettered.
For those interested I have can forward the betting analysis. Send me an email paul@ratings2win.com.au
In terms of the Bet Selector results that you detail, obviously these are not based on the same system criteria, as Bet Selector is not capable of testing variables unique to R2W. I do grant however that perhaps the base theory of what I alluded to in the first post of this thread even in Bet Selector could be exploited albeit nowhere near the extent of what we provide for.
Thanks for taking the time to comment.
PaulD01
27th September 2013, 09:03 AM
27/09/2013
12:58 CANBE 1 4 Got The Goss
14:08 CANBE 3 8 Alluring Belle
15:55 CANBE 6 4 Fullerton
17:05 GEESY 8 2 Jordan
PaulD01
28th September 2013, 08:55 AM
28/09/2013
12:35 MORNI 1 4 Pearl Heart
15:05 GOLD 5 1 Quick Witted
16:25 GOLD 7 1 Rock Lane
PaulD01
29th September 2013, 10:00 AM
29/09/2013
13:32 CALOU 2 2 It Wasnt Me
15:52 CALOU 6 2 Sequaliscious
16:30 CALOU 7 1 Auguste
PaulD01
1st October 2013, 09:17 AM
01/10/2013
No selections today
Michal
1st October 2013, 11:42 AM
After 2 months of running the strike is 18.4% with a POT -33%
There is no hiding from the fact that currently this system is performing below par. With many a selection running second at the odds we need. That's punting.
darkydog2002
1st October 2013, 02:40 PM
Yeah.Wondering when you were going to get rid of it.
It wasnt doing you any favors by running it.
Mind you the Extermxxxxxxx is even worse.
PaulD01
1st October 2013, 04:21 PM
Yeah.Wondering when you were going to get rid of it.
It wasnt doing you any favors by running it.
Mind you the Extermxxxxxxx is even worse.
Hi darky
We are not getting rid of it, simply reporting the last two months results which are short term by nature.
Overall this strategy has still delivered a longer term strike rate of 27.8% and POT of 12.12% SP/NSW tote. This includes the impact of the last two months of draw-down. Those that derive a living from punting experience draw-down 85-95% of the year (between 310-347 days). So as to remove any doubt draw-down is simply a point at which you are somewhere below a previous bank high.
Michal
1st October 2013, 05:24 PM
Hi Darky,
As Paul pointed out, its only 2 months, while the results are against us, we report that just the same as a profitable system. Often clients tell us that one of their reasons for going with us is the fact that we report things completely as they are; EVEN and especially, when something is not doing us any favors as opposed to only when things are going well.
It makes it hard to compete at times as it seams that we are the only company that is having bad runs LOL. That illusion usually lasts just after they buy the other 'invincible' stuff and see the truth, the holes and the real results; by then its too late! That is why those that have been around the block appreciate us, because they can form their opinion without guess work and incomplete results reporting.
Still thanks for caring to make that comment.
Michal
Michal
2nd October 2013, 05:49 PM
02/10/2013
15:55 BALLA 6 1 Quick Shakes
I put this up too late here. First decent winner in a few weeks. At least I didn't forget to have it on our website where it was up since 9.30 am not that anyone would be looking now , right ? :) Hopefully by tomorrow I'll be back into the grove of things!
Michal
3rd October 2013, 09:06 AM
03/10/2013
13:18 WYONG 1 4 Jack The Ringer
15:38 WYONG 5 4 Misaquilina
16:48 WYONG 7 1 Power Shot
Lord Greystoke
3rd October 2013, 10:35 AM
Morning Michal,
I note that just 2 filters added here make somewhat of a difference to the return (not tested with a database however!)
LG
PaulD01
3rd October 2013, 08:16 PM
Morning Michal,
I note that just 2 filters added here make somewhat of a difference to the return (not tested with a database however!)
LG
Hi LG
Can you provide me with your email please as I would like to send you something re your post.
Lord Greystoke
3rd October 2013, 08:47 PM
lord
greystoke
3rd
gmail
com
Cheers LG
Michal
4th October 2013, 10:11 AM
04/10/2013
16:05 GRAFT 6 12 Sanawaat
17:15 HAMIL 8 2 Sir Tully
Michal
5th October 2013, 10:24 AM
05/10/2013
14:20 GOLD 4 1 Hypothesis
20:12 CALOU 5 1 General Jackson
Michal
6th October 2013, 09:47 AM
06/10/2013
12:10 BENLL 1 13 Speedastro
13:10 BALLN 1 3 Fast Take
13:45 BALLN 2 12 Myboymaurie
Michal
7th October 2013, 09:10 AM
07/10/2013
No selections
Michal
8th October 2013, 08:41 AM
08/10/2013
No Selections
Michal
9th October 2013, 08:54 AM
09/10/2013
No Selections
Michal
10th October 2013, 09:20 AM
10/10/2013
No Selections
Michal
11th October 2013, 10:10 AM
11/10/2013
13:08 CANBE 1 3 Miss Espresso
14:18 CANBE 3 2 Got The Goss
16:50 CANBE 7 2 Mr Fox
22:15 CRANB 8 4 Another Blue Boy
Michal
12th October 2013, 09:13 AM
12/10/2013
12:54 ALBUR 4 10 Real Calm
15:22 GOLD 4 11 Meadow Dreamer
18:05 GOLD 8 4 One To Go
19:25 CALOU 3 6 Brilliant Rose
21:20 CALOU 6 2 Sporting Page
Michal
13th October 2013, 09:20 AM
13/10/2013
No selections
Michal
14th October 2013, 09:31 AM
14/10/2013
15:40 TAMWT 4 2 Up And Over
16:28 CALOU 5 8 Hot Chilli Milly
17:20 WANGA 8 6 Solar Strike
Michal
15th October 2013, 10:33 AM
15/10/2013
15:08 TVILL 2 7 Jayhawk
15:55 BAIRN 5 2 Pass The Post
Michal
16th October 2013, 09:35 AM
16/10/2013
12:28 MURRA 1 4 Rocmarr
13:38 MURRA 3 3 Exalted Appeal
Michal
17th October 2013, 09:45 AM
17/10/2013
13:53 SCONE 2 1 Pro Consul
14:10 WBOOL 3 2 Here De Siren
14:37 GOLD 1 8 Favoured One
15:47 GOLD 3 4 Sunset Showdown
15:55 WBOOL 6 3 Seuss
Michal
18th October 2013, 09:55 AM
18/10/2013
14:45 MDURA 4 5 Tesselaar
14:53 KEMBL 1 4 Riebeek
19:15 CRANB 2 2 Hollywood Gothic
21:15 CRANB 6 12 Pitch Perfect
22:15 CRANB 8 1 Committed
Michal
19th October 2013, 10:14 AM
19/10/2013
14:12 GOLD 2 2 Rocco In The House
14:54 ROCKY 1 5 Space Jam
15:22 GOLD 4 4 Give It Berries
15:57 GOLD 5 4 Eye Winsome
Michal
20th October 2013, 09:37 AM
20/10/2013
14:05 CALOU 2 1 General Jackson
17:10 BUNBR 4 4 Eyes Dont Lie
Michal
21st October 2013, 09:17 AM
21/10/2013
14:45 PAKEN 4 3 Diavel
Michal
22nd October 2013, 09:44 AM
22/10/2013
No selections
Michal
23rd October 2013, 09:09 AM
23/10/2013
13:43 STRAT 2 1 Count Blevic
14:45 GEELO 5 1 Relentless
17:28 STRAT 8 8 Lady Phoenix
Michal
24th October 2013, 09:47 AM
24/10/2013
19:45 GLDTO 6 3 Big Clint
Michal
25th October 2013, 09:42 AM
25/10/2013
13:08 CANBE 1 1 Ready Fora Crownie
13:43 CANBE 2 1 General Jay Dee
14:53 CANBE 4 1 Bonzar
15:03 TAREE 4 1 Parchoise
15:10 ROCKY 3 1 Hodgie And Mo
15:30 CANBE 5 5 Alluring Belle
17:40 TAREE 8 2 Biscay Sport
21:37 CALOU 6 6 Novaspur
Michal
26th October 2013, 11:08 AM
26/10/2013
14:42 GOLD 2 2 Thefifthhole
15:17 GOLD 3 4 Our Zidane
15:52 GOLD 4 9 Red Diamonds
Michal
27th October 2013, 09:19 AM
27/10/2013
13:30 CALOU 1 3 Hauser
14:05 CALOU 2 2 Cliffs Dream
14:50 BORTW 3 10 Regaeya
15:35 WYONG 5 1 Whispering Gap
17:05 CALOU 7 2 Achievements
Michal
28th October 2013, 08:35 AM
28/10/2013
14:32 SCONE 3 11 Raweesha
17:02 SCONE 7 3 Double Five
Michal
29th October 2013, 09:26 AM
29/10/2013
No selections
Michal
30th October 2013, 09:44 AM
30/10/2013
17:20 BENDI 10 1 Churchill Express
Michal
1st November 2013, 09:56 AM
01/11/2013
18:00 WODON 8 10 Sahara Night
pgra
1st November 2013, 08:26 PM
Home track advantage is there for Sat metro its just a case of using the right ratings.For the last 2 years i have had 147 bets for 50% strike 13% pot unitab
PaulD01
2nd November 2013, 09:15 AM
Home track advantage is there for Sat metro its just a case of using the right ratings.For the last 2 years i have had 147 bets for 50% strike 13% pot unitab
Hi pgra,
Welcome to the forum. The 13% POT that you have achieved is within the normal range of variance (2 lines of deviation applied) which is -8.1% LOT to 28.1% POT for this number of bets, assuming a strike rate of 50% and a 10% profit edge.
The problems associated with only having 147 bets over a 2 year period is that you could be losing 8.1% on turnover ($1,916 on a $10,000 starting bank). The real question is whether you or anyone could continue to bet after showing a loss at the end of 2 years. These calculations of course assume that you have a 10% edge in the first place which you could not possibly know with such as small sample.
In terms of whether a home track advantage exists within the metropolitan area, the numbers do not support that it does.
Michal
2nd November 2013, 09:38 AM
02/11/2013
13:45 GOLD 2 2 Cheval Du Feu
14:42 DUBBO 2 4 Sharky
15:27 DUBBO 3 9 Speedreader
16:00 GOLD 5 3 Sand Biscuit
17:37 DUBBO 6 1 Glory Man
PaulD01
2nd November 2013, 11:40 AM
October Results for R2W Home Track Advantage
TEST RESULTS for System - R2W HOME TRACK ADVANTAGE
Date Range - 01/10/2013 to 31/10/2013 Period of Days - 31
Price Option - Best of SP and NSW
WIN STATISTICS Value Bets Wins SR Collect Avg POT Profit Outs
Races 65 16 24.6% $68.35 $4.30 5.15% $3.35 13
Horses 65 16 24.6% $68.35 $4.30 5.15% $3.35 NA
Michal
3rd November 2013, 10:04 AM
03/11/2013
15:40 MUSWE 4 5 Crown Of Dreams
17:26 MUSWE 7 3 Binalong Road
18:10 ALBAN 3 2 Mr African
19:20 ALBAN 5 8 Blackwall Reach
Michal
4th November 2013, 09:14 AM
04/11/2013
17:35 BALLN 8 2 Fast Take
Michal
5th November 2013, 09:04 AM
05/11/2013
12:23 KEMBL 1 2 Jaykay
14:08 CANBE 3 10 Rules Point
15:20 GOLD 2 1 Our Zidane
15:59 GOLD 3 3 Florida Fellow
16:05 CANBE 5 12 Sequoia Sunrise
16:39 GOLD 4 3 Run For Ever
18:00 GOLD 6 8 Perfect Glory
20:17 BUNBR 8 2 Angel Wing
All the best in the Cup !
Michal
6th November 2013, 11:28 AM
06/11/2013
no selections
Michal
7th November 2013, 12:05 PM
07/11/2013
14:00 WBOOL 3 4 Royal Manner
14:50 ALBUR 3 2 Scatcat
16:35 GAWLE 6 8 Sparkling Bella
Michal
8th November 2013, 09:36 AM
08/11/2013
14:10 SALE 3 2 Chad
15:08 ROCKY 3 3 Hodgie And Mo
16:27 ROCKY 5 2 The Shooter
16:40 SALE 7 4 Prime Ace
19:45 CRANB 3 9 True Statement
22:15 CRANB 8 2 Scelto
Michal
9th November 2013, 09:25 AM
09/11/2013
13:45 GOLD 2 6 Favoured One
13:55 GEELO 3 4 Platinum Citi
14:20 GBURN 6 4 Spurlohn
14:40 GEELO 4 4 Cheeky Rozay
15:15 GOLD 4 4 Dolphus
17:30 GOLD 7 3 Euphorbia
18:05 GOLD 8 5 Eye Winsome
19:25 CALOU 3 5 For Mia
20:05 CALOU 4 11 Tuskegee Sunrise
Michal
10th November 2013, 10:03 AM
10/11/2013
17:50 PINJR 4 9 Lioness
Michal
11th November 2013, 09:16 AM
11/11/2013
13:18 BALLN 1 2 Vintanagh
14:45 MORNI 4 4 Frankly Fast
Michal
12th November 2013, 12:01 PM
12/11/2013
16:28 TVILL 4 3 Jayhawk
Michal
13th November 2013, 09:16 AM
13/11/2013
13:43 MURRA 2 3 It And A Bit
14:10 BALLA 3 3 Elrick
16:00 BALLA 6 5 Samer Drive
17:28 MURRA 8 1 Zoom Lad
Michal
14th November 2013, 09:12 AM
14/11/2013
16:10 BUNBR 1 14 Low Flying
16:25 ROCKY 5 1 Security Sam
Michal
16th November 2013, 09:27 AM
16/11/2013
13:45 GOLD 1 1 Alpine Dragon
17:05 GOLD 6 6 Sand Biscuit
17:45 GOLD 7 4 Scarborough
17:55 CALOU 1 3 For Mia
21:35 CALOU 7 6 Chrysin
Michal
17th November 2013, 09:21 AM
17/11/2013
13:30 CALOU 1 7 Helen Of Strada
14:40 CALOU 3 6 Sizzling Song
15:15 CALOU 4 5 Hallside Rose
15:50 CALOU 5 11 Fallforme
19:35 MTBKR 6 1 Kemilee
Michal
18th November 2013, 10:25 AM
18/11/2013
15:20 WANGA 5 1 Godfrey
16:22 TAMWT 5 5 Stretch
Michal
19th November 2013, 09:32 AM
19/11/2013
14:33 BDSRT 1 4 Strategic Shadow
16:18 BDSRT 4 1 Anchorfel
16:53 BDSRT 5 1 Leealan
Michal
20th November 2013, 09:07 AM
20/11/2013
14:10 SALE 3 4 Go Dreaming
Michal
21st November 2013, 09:35 AM
21/11/2013
14:27 WAGGA 3 1 Angel Of Rock
14:37 MACKA 2 3 Nagini
16:30 MACKA 5 1 Heroic Action
17:10 MACKA 6 1 Rofranoz
Michal
22nd November 2013, 09:21 AM
22/11/2013
18:00 CRANB 1 8 Merry Magic
19:05 CRANB 3 11 Toyed
19:40 CRANB 4 1 Beldan
21:25 CRANB 7 11 Joplin
22:00 CRANB 8 3 Smooth General
Michal
23rd November 2013, 10:02 AM
23/11/2013
14:15 BALLN 7 11 Vader
15:15 MORNI 4 3 Odd Socks
16:25 GOLD 5 2 Royal Scribe
17:05 GOLD 6 1 Stuboy
17:24 GLDTO 3 1 Delta Jane
17:45 GOLD 7 2 Play Luck
18:04 GLDTO 4 5 Madicas Pleasure
20:05 GLDTO 7 1 Buckland Rose
Michal
24th November 2013, 09:53 AM
24/11/2013
13:30 CALOU 1 1 Thatllbgood
14:40 CALOU 3 10 All In All
15:15 CALOU 4 4 Menacing
16:23 GRAFT 5 10 Oh He Will Go
17:02 CALOU 7 1 Achievements
20:20 BUNBR 8 1 Bustabill
Michal
25th November 2013, 09:30 AM
25/11/2013
17:35 SCONE 8 1 Valcot
Michal
26th November 2013, 09:33 AM
26/11/2013
18:03 TVILL 7 2 Frog Hollow
Michal
27th November 2013, 09:34 AM
27/11/2013
15:20 BENDI 5 1 Churchill Express
darkydog2002
27th November 2013, 03:23 PM
Nice pick up there Michal.
Thanks.
Michal
28th November 2013, 09:24 AM
28/11/2013
14:03 ROCKY 1 2 Maximum Ferocity
15:40 WYONG 5 13 Golden Scribe
15:48 ROCKY 4 2 Hodgie And Mo
17:40 ROCKY 7 1 Just Do Something
18:00 ALBAN 3 7 Korolenko
Michal
29th November 2013, 10:05 AM
29/11/2013
14:21 CANBE 3 3 Cumberland Range
17:32 CANBE 8 17 Riverwina Prince
Michal
30th November 2013, 09:18 AM
30/11/2013
16:07 GOLD 5 2 One Grey
17:02 ESPER 1 3 Rons Gem
17:56 GOLD 8 4 Scarborough
Michal
1st December 2013, 05:03 PM
November Results
TEST RESULTS for System - R2W HOME TRACK ADVANTAGE
Date Range - 01/11/2013 to 30/11/2013 Period of Days - 30
Price Option - Best of SP and NSW
WIN STATISTICS Value Bets Wins SR Collect Avg POT Profit Outs
Races 98 29 29.6% $114.90 $3.95 17.24% $16.90 14
Horses 98 29 29.6% $114.90 $3.95 17.24% $16.90 NA
Michal
1st December 2013, 05:04 PM
This concludes our free selections from this system. We will continue to post the results each month, to see how the method performs long term. Further selections from this system will be posted in our new thread "Free Selections"
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