comparing totes

[partypooper]

With some new products available in mind, does any fellow systemite have any data comparing totes overall. What I mean is of course we are better off backing at best tote cos we get the best odds on that particular event, but over time does Supertab beat unitab etc etc. or does it even out? eg. say all winning favs. any difference in overall returns over many bets?

[Chrome Prince]

PP,

I posted this on another thread which might interest you.

161,000 races, no price filters

TF LOT 32.08%
SP LOT 36.56%
NSW LOT 21.63%
TATTS LOT 22.65%
STAB LOT 22.69%
BEST TOTE LOT 14.99%
BEST SP TOTE LOT 13.48%

[SpeedyBen]

Whilst on the subject try to avoid Supa for exotics. They jacked up their takeouts a few years ago, so, it is no surprise that most corps pay out at Supa divs. NSW beats them hands down.

[partypooper]

thanks for the feedback Speedy and Chrome, what I'm trying to evaluate is a comparison between Best Tote + 5% (Sportingbet) Best Tote or SP (Sportsbet)

Best of Tote or Top Fluc (luxbet) or the new Vic tab + 10% (Unibet)?

At the mo. I'm leaning to Sportingbet, as its available all races every day, but this new one from Unibet has me asking the question?

Of course we then have to compare with BF SP, which I'm sure OVERALL comes up trumps but as I've said many times before not on the lower end of the odds scale (I believe)

Now what would change my life in an instant is: Best Tote+ 10% or Top Fluc. (whichever is the greatest) I'm certain that it will come.

Especially for the place i.e. Best tote + 10% OR 1/4 the odds of Top Fluc whichever is the greatest! (8 runners +)

THATS what we want!!

[stugots]

All well and good PP, but you will still face the issue of having your account restricted if you consistently win with those corps, so are those products really anything more than advertising gimmicks?

[aussielongboat]

PP,

I posted this on another thread which might interest you.

161,000 races, no price filters

TF LOT 32.08%
SP LOT 36.56%
NSW LOT 21.63%
TATTS LOT 22.65%
STAB LOT 22.69%
BEST TOTE LOT 14.99%
BEST SP TOTE LOT 13.48%

I find the TF performance unusual.
i bet that there are some results that don't have a TF number recorded and it is coming back at 0 and that why it is comparatively bad.
just my opinion but i thought it would have come in at around 12% LOT
and certainly better than the tabs.
the fact that best tote + sp improves best tote seems to confirm this

i have always said best tote is 6% points better than single tote and your number of about 6.5% improvement confirms this.
that's why the sporting bet of best + 5% is so good.

now if we could just get them to take our bets.

thanks for the numbers

[Chrome Prince]

Hi aussie,
This was for all races, all prices where TF was offered.

[aussielongboat]

Hi aussie,
This was for all races, all prices where TF was offered.
thanks CP.
Well there must be some other problem then because there is no way TF returns worse than the TABS.

either way thanks for the numbers.
as i said before it just shows how valuable BT +5% is

[Chrome Prince]

Aussie,
It's the favourite longshot bias, far more pronounced with outsiders with Top Fluctuation, then there is the firmer and drifter bias.

ALL FIRMERS
TF 3.32% POT
SP 22.84% LOT
NSW TAB 10.81% LOT
STAB 11.59% LOT
TATTS 11.85% LOT
BEST TOTE 5.08% LOT

ALL DRIFTERS
TF 36.59% LOT
SP 38.31% LOT
NSW TAB 23.01% LOT
STAB 24.10% LOT
TATTS 24.03% LOT
BEST TOTE 16.25% LOT

ALL $5.00 and under opening price on track
TF 13.72% LOT
SP 19.39% LOT
NSW TAB 12.13% LOT
STAB 12.96% LOT
TATTS 12.86% LOT
BEST TOTE 6.69% LOT

ALL FIRMERS $5.00 and under opening price on track
TF 5.78% POT
SP 14.16% LOT
NSW TAB 8.25% LOT
STAB 9.40% LOT
TATTS 9.69% LOT
BEST TOTE 3.60% LOT

[aussielongboat]

thanks for that - that's interesting.
It makes sense that if you have TF on an horse that firms to its true chance you will be in front because you have "over the odds" so to speak.

Just have to work out those that are over the odds before everybody else does.
That cant be too hard can it.
LOL

[Chrome Prince]

That's the challenge really, if one knew how the market would go in advance, one would be home and hosed.

[aussielongboat]

That's the challenge really, if one knew how the market would go in advance, one would be home and hosed.

and the only way you can know that for sure is to identify over priced horses and you do that by being the most accurate in assessing their true chance because you know in due course hey will be most probably be recognised by the broader market and their price will drop and fall into line accordingly.

As they say you cant eat value but in the long term that's what its about.
The holy grail.

[Try Try Again]

Hi CP/ Aussielongboat,

The problem with TF is that you have to put the bet on before the odds are put up at the track. Hence you do not know if the horse will be supported, stay the same of drift.

A very interesting stat but impractical to achieve in practice.