Backing Overlay/Underlay

[evajb001]

Hi all,

As its been quiet here I figured i'd pose this question while I'm working on my final ratings spreadsheet. So far i've looked at 200 races with my ratings and been checking out various filters to see what is in profit and whats not for backing my top 2 raters.

What i've found is that certain underlay/overlay ranges are by far the most profitable. Now I understand that 200 races is a very small sample size and I need to do further research, but here is my query:

How can I back my rated runners between a specific price range for each runner without being infront of my PC to do so.

i.e.

Lets say I have a top rater that I rate as a $4.00 chance. I want to only back it if its within a 0.80 to 1.30 underlay/overlay range (i.e. $3.20 to $5.20).

What is the absolute simplest way to achieve this? Ideally it would be a very simple BOT that allowed me to pick all my selections at the start of the day and set the price ranges for each selection.

Any ideas, suggestions etc etc are all welcome. After some further testing I might try a live test on the forum for a month and see if I can make a profit over the space of a month.

The testing i've done so far showed a 77 unit profit over the space of 2 weeks just by betting my overlay range and doubling the bet between a certain distance range.

[The Ocho]

Hi evajb001

BF Bot Manager v2 will let you do that. They would be classed as user bets. All you would have to do is tick user bets only, go to each race, tick the fav column on the left of the horses you want and then put in the figures on the right (as pictured) you can place any odds in there you like as I have done in the pic.

I don't have any affiliation with them but that is the bot I use when losing all my money whilst trying to make an automated fortune. :(

The bot is great, my systems are not.

[evajb001]

Thanks TO, sounds pretty simple to do.

I have looked at getting that BOT before but decided not to, maybe its time that I do.

[The Ocho]

You can get a free trial so at least you can experiment. I would try it with small stakes and not in simulation mode only so you can see if it does what you need it to do.

If you're not sure how to set it up you can email me on equalthree at yahoo dot com dot au so I can attach bigger pictures.

The other thing with the bot is that it's a one off payment so no need to pay each month.

Good luck. :)

[evajb001]

TO i just had another look at their website, am I correct in reading that to run multiple strategies you'd need the multiple strategies bot for $14.95 a month?

i.e. The backing plan with my ratings looks like it would work fine as per your screenshot and as i've just read the relevant parts of the manual.

However if I had a lay strategy that was completely external to this backing plan, does that mean i'd need the multiple strategies bot with the monthly fee?

I guess I could just run any other basic plans elsewhere.

P.S. I was fiddling with the backing selections today and it looks like that retirement staking plan might be suitable for it as well.

I'll get some more testing done over the rest of this week and might start a thread up next week if everything is still looking good.

[The Ocho]

It depends if you would be backing and laying the same horses with your different systems. The user bets section lets you back OR lay different horses in the same race at a predetermined time so you could still use the one off payment v2 multiple favorites bot.

You still need to buy the v2 bot if you want to use the monthly strategies bot anyway.

[evajb001]

Yeh good point, its only $160 australian anyway so reasonably cheap really. I'll do some more back-testing tonight/tomorrow and if its still holding up over a couple of months i'll get the bot and go live on $5 stakes

Thanks for the replies TO

[The Ocho]

Yeh good point, its only $160 australian anyway so reasonably cheap really. I'll do some more back-testing tonight/tomorrow and if its still holding up over a couple of months i'll get the bot and go live on $5 stakes

Thanks for the replies TO
No worries. If you want to get in touch via email to run through it then please do so.

[Rinconpaul]

... but this is the bot I use when losing all my money whilst trying to make an automated fortune. :(
Hahahaa...good one TO. I came across another brilliant quote from a 25 year veteran Options Trader:
The program's risk management philosophy is, "It's not how much money you make in a day, it's how little you lose!"...lol

[evajb001]

For those interested i've almost completely finished my spreadsheet including some systems i've put together. Today's plays would be as follows, lets see how they go although its a pertty poor days racing to be starting this:

BR5 - 3,4,9 (Taken from 2 systems)
BR8 - 1,7

NR4 - 4,5
NR5 - 2,3,5 (Taken from 2 systems)
NR7 - 2,3
NR8 - 5,7

VR6 - 8,14
VR8 - 3,14

[evajb001]

TO was curious if BF Bot Manager had a dutching plan in there as well but haven't been able to see it in the manual?

Does it not have dutching available?

[TheSchmile]

Allo Josh,

It's been great watching your punting journey thus far on the forum.

I wish you all the best with your new systems and nailing the overlay/underlay mission!

[evajb001]

Thanks TS it has certainly been an interesting journey.

I really think i'm 90% there now in terms of the ratings approach i've put together. I seriously believe i'm on the right path now, utilized a database to allow me to attack the stats of it all, and then used my recording of 400 races so far to enhance/adjust a little further. I certainly feel the underlay/overlay approach has merit and can be profitable over the long term.

That extra 10% will come from further tweaks and adjustments that may one day hopefully mean I have something I can bet day in day out proftably with minimal risk, that is the ultimate goal.

Since i've got that side of things nearing completion its time for me to use the 400+ races of data so far to look at my settling/speed/pace side of things. Due to the calculations invovled on this side of things I can't easily backtest so i've had to forward record the race data.

Everything i've discussed on here in terms of speed/pace/settling has been theory based on racing newsletters I read from a US website that were extremely in depth and very informative. What I want to do now is put those theory's to the best and see if there is any way at all i can either:

a) incorporate it into my ratings or;
b) use the figures to automate as best a speed map as I can put together to enhance my betting approach.

or obviously both of the above.

There's no doubt in my mind i'm getting closer, its just a matter of forward testing and then finding a way to automate it in an effective risk/reward manner.

[The Ocho]

TO was curious if BF Bot Manager had a dutching plan in there as well but haven't been able to see it in the manual?

Does it not have dutching available?
By Jingo it certainly does evajb001. It is part of the v2 bot. Whether it does exactly as you need may be another thing.

Here is the manual:

http://www.bfbotmanager.com/documents/manuals/dutching_bot_manual.pdf

Good luck with it all.

[stugots]

overs/unders?

One of my bets yesterday - Donald5 no4 - late exchange $16.5, bfsp $20, highest tab $11.90

& on & on we go;)

[Lord Greystoke]

overs/unders?

One of my bets yesterday - Donald5 no4 - late exchange $16.5, bfsp $20, highest tab $11.90

& on & on we go;)Did you dutch this race stuggs or was it a standout?

Cheers LG

[partypooper]

Stugs, I agree that some great overs can be had on BF and I'm sure with a lot of study a quid could be made just from that, the problem I've always had is getting on. I'm not a massive backer by any means but very often I can't get $50 on. Conversely I've always found BF to progressively better with odds say from around $6 and up and progressively worse than Top Tote $6 down. And at the lower end the place is a joke, I'd be interested if others find the same?

[stugots]

LG, no dutching, backed 2 in the race at level stakes, not a big fan of dutching, leaves too much on the table imho.

PP, my late figures on the race show there was around $150 available at $16+ on the exchange, but the real point is that BFSP paid $20 - from my experience the BFSP figure is not going to be significantly less that the late exchange price without a large amount bet at SP.

Now of if you had for example bet $1k at SP, given the market size (a Tuesday 58hcp, about $50k hold) it wouldn't have paid $20's, but I doubt it would have been less than $16's, as BF have a weird way of calculating the SP which I do not pretend to understand, but it does seem to allow for big bets to not to totally crush a price or vice verse with laying.

BF Win markets on the shorties offer no real advantage over the Totes, other than the ease of use & I agree with you on the place market for shorties, it's a loser on BF.

But the other side is the ease of use of BF, not getting banned or restricted etc.

[evajb001]

Thanks for the input guys, even though I won't be betting them i'll post the bets i'll be recording for today if I get a chance at lunch and the price ranges i'd accept using a bot.

I've done all my recording thus far using BFSP, I don't have the stats infront of me at the moment but the following are my stats from memory looking at them last night after i'd done my daily update. Note this is betting my top 2 raters in >=8 horse fields when they are in between a certain underlay/overlay range.

408 races recorded
200 bettable races
52 winning races (26% SR)
Avg winning odds $4.70
POT 27.00%
Max DD 17%

NOTE:
The above stats are based on where i've recoreded a starting bank of $500 and based the staking on price ranges:

<$2 Odds = $12 bet
<$3 Odds = $11 bet
<$4 Odds = $10 bet... and so on until you get to >$9 = $5 bet as thats the BF minimum.

If you want the flat $1 stake stats i'll try post at lunch as well or tonight. Not sure if some of you remember the stats/graphs i posted some time ago which were based around stock trading stats/charts. I'll be putting together something similar shortly for this system and post.

[SpeedyBen]

JB
I'll set them up in my bot and let them run. I'm not always home at the start of the raceday but if you get them up I'll give them a try. I'll be home until 11.30 EST this morning.

[evajb001]

Sorry for the late reply SB didn't get a chance to check the thread until now, here goes :

Venue - Horse no. (Odds Range)

BR4 - 2 (3.04/5.42), 3 (5.17/9.09)
BR6 - 1 (3.09/5.49), 4 (4.83/8.60)
BR7 - 2 (3.05/5.43), 5 (5.25/9.34)
BR8 - 4 (3.84/6.83), 10 (4.98/8.86)

SR4 - 2 (4.47/7.94), 1 (5.32/9.47)
SR5 - 7 (3.76/6.69), 2 (4.71/8.37)
SR6 - 8 (5.39/9.59), 4 (5.49/9.76)
SR7 - 1 (3.96/7.04), 3 (6.09/10.83)

VR5 - 11 (4.75/8.44), 6 (5.13/9.12)
VR6 - 9 (5.10/9.06), 11 (6.44/11.45)

AR7 - 4 (4.44/7.91), 7 (6.08/10.80)

PR1 - 6 (4.12/7.33), 1 (4.66/8.29)
PR5 - 12 (4.35/7.73), 6 (5.95/10.59)
PR6 - 1 (4.17/7.41), 3 (5.10/9.08)
PR7 - 2 (6.19/11.01), 8 (6.59/11.73)

Obviously any scratchings etc will effect the above.

[SpeedyBen]

All set. I'll send you the xls tonight.

[evajb001]

Greatly appreciated SB, i'll go back through race by race tonight as well and place the race data into my recording spreadsheet.

I'm at a bit of a crossroads as to if I should refine the selection criteria further or leave as is. The reason being is that currently the ratings/overlays approach is having a bet in 1 of every 2 races rated meaning its having quite a lot of action. Is more/less action a good or bad thing? Interested in the comments of others too, I guess its not necessarily a bad thing providing your Max drawdown is at a comfortable level.

I suppose also comes back to the question what are you more comfortable with:

500 selections over a month 30% SR 20% POT or
500 selections over 2 years 30% SR 20% POT

EDIT: Maybe rather than any horse filtering I need to look at any additional race filtering I can use to improve the results as my horse filtering should all be taken care of in the ratings

[SpeedyBen]

I used to be a disciple of selective betting but not now. If you are making a profit go for it and when you have considerable data you may be able to identify weaknesses and prune a little.

[evajb001]

Pretty poor day for the ratings from what I can tell glancing at the results quickly, will know more once i'm home and can look at them properly.

Also from what I could tell didn't seem many of the selections fell within the odds parameters besides a few.

[evajb001]

SB or Others, i'm interested in your thoughts on something.

Today I was fiddling with the data i've collected thus far looking for a way to profitably lay my lowest raters. After some mucking around and looking at various stats etc I found something that made sense and looked profitable.

Now, so far i've used an overlay range method to make my top raters profitable, but i thought to myself hangon why not just only play my top raters when my bottom raters throw up a lay opportunity.

I won't post the stats etc as i'm still looking into it, but does anyone else take this approach or has tried this approach of only backing horses when a profitable lay system you have, has a play in a race.

The reason I ask is doesn't it basically turn say a 10 horse field into a 9 or 8 horse field for your backing selections? Which you can possibly narrow down further and basically gives you greater opportunity for winners?

I could be way off track with this but it makes logical sense to me providing you have a very good lay system to base it off to begin with.

Thoughts?

[SpeedyBen]

I might have to phone a friend on that one, JB. If the lay that you identify is a short price backing your toppie or overlay probably makes sense to me.