Need Some advice

[CairnsMan]

Hi everyone, hope the spring racing goes well for all.

I need some advice, not sure where I can find the right answers, but this forum is as good as any.

As I have mention before I have developed over many years my own ratings method. Originally based on the concepts of Rem Plante and Don Scot I have tweaked values to reflect today’s racing, which is vastly different to what they experienced years ago.

My ratings results are very accurate, takes hours to do a single meeting and overall I’m happy with the results. But I still feel I’m missing something… Or more correctly there’s another factor I haven’t accounted for or haven’t put enough emphasis on.

Firstly I rate runners on API, both career and current campaign, I then add ratings based on race ratings and weight and distance for previous runs (in particular the current campaign) and then I review all my ratings results for each race to cast a knowledgeable opinion over the probable winners..

This approach turns some very happy results ranging in price out to 8 and beyond and it is very reliable.

But I can’t help thinking that there’s something more… The next step so to speak.

Any suggestions?

[TheSchmile]

Hi Cairnsman,

My first advice would be to automate the process as much as possible. Hire a programmer if necessary.

Secondly, I'd look at pace and settling position if you haven't already factored that in. Michal and Paul have a service with Ratings2win.

Wishing you great success!!

[CairnsMan]

Hi Cairnsman,

My first advice would be to automate the process as much as possible. Hire a programmer if necessary.

Secondly, I'd look at pace and settling position if you haven't already factored that in. Michal and Paul have a service with Ratings2win.

Wishing you great success!!Thanks Schmile,

<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:WordDocument> <w:View>Normal</w:View> <w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:PunctuationKerning/> <w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/> <w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w:Compatibility> <w:BreakWrappedTables/> <w:SnapToGridInCell/> <w:WrapTextWithPunct/> <w:UseAsianBreakRules/> <w:DontGrowAutofit/> </w:Compatibility> <w:BrowserLevel>MicrosoftInternetExplorer4</w:BrowserLevel> </w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--> I have fiddled with these things and found some speed maps helpful, (some are garbage too) but I haven't really delved into pace that much.. I will study Ratings2Win and see what shows up, thanks

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[beton]

There is more.
The handicapper has taken history and in his mind he has evened up the field.
You are taking that same history and trying to prove him wrong. You can only do that with what comes after the handicapping. The draw and what has happened between the last race and this one.

The first is incorporated in most ratings, and is reflected in the PP. and the second is usually reflected in the openers. Furthermore if you take any price range of the fav, you will find even money less the TAB rake. Meaning that Joe Public is on the money.

Thus if you don't use the money, you are on your own.

[rhino82]

This approach turns some very happy results ranging in price out to 8 and beyond and it is very reliable.

But I can’t help thinking that there’s something more… The next step so to speak.
Hi CairnsMan. Interested why you think "there's something more", if you're on a winner, that is? Thanks

[Clive]

Sounds to me like you're doing pretty well already. Not always helpful to expect total perfection.
If you are in profit, just up the stake.

[CairnsMan]

There is more.
The handicapper has taken history and in his mind he has evened up the field.
You are taking that same history and trying to prove him wrong. You can only do that with what comes after the handicapping. The draw and what has happened between the last race and this one.

The first is incorporated in most ratings, and is reflected in the PP. and the second is usually reflected in the openers. Furthermore if you take any price range of the fav, you will find even money less the TAB rake. Meaning that Joe Public is on the money.

Thus if you don't use the money, you are on your own.I agree with you BetOn, you're on the money.. As a programmer I wrote a program to study the results of thousands of races and compared the results with BetFair prices. The result: (once you take out the commission) the actual chance of a runner winning is within 15% of the final SP price.

Money (price) is a significant indicator. Thanks for your comments

[CairnsMan]

Sounds to me like you're doing pretty well already. Not always helpful to expect total perfection.
If you are in profit, just up the stake.A very sucessfull punter who I learned a lot from, told me "Never bet more than you'd be comfortable of losing"...

Quite simply, the pressure of losing money creates doubt in the mind of the punter and they make silly mistakes as a result.

My methods are very good and succesfull, last Sat I got 6 out of 7 winners (nominating about 3 in a race) and as a normal thing I can get 4 - 5 winners every Saturday and Wednesday. I only concentrate on Sydney tracks, not interested in Melb, and other tracks. Still I think I can do better so I am striving to improve, perhaps perfection is too big an ask but shooting for it can't hurt.

[CairnsMan]

Hi CairnsMan. Interested why you think "there's something more", if you're on a winner, that is? ThanksI disagree Rhino82, to stop searching for more is to stop evolving and if you don't evolve then failure will surely follow..

[rhino82]

I disagree Rhino82, to stop searching for more is to stop evolving and if you don't evolve then failure will surely follow..
Hi again CairnsMan, Was asking a question, didn't make any statement, so not sure to what you're disagreeing

[PaulD01]

Hi everyone, hope the spring racing goes well for all.

I need some advice, not sure where I can find the right answers, but this forum is as good as any.

As I have mention before I have developed over many years my own ratings method. Originally based on the concepts of Rem Plante and Don Scot I have tweaked values to reflect today’s racing, which is vastly different to what they experienced years ago.

My ratings results are very accurate, takes hours to do a single meeting and overall I’m happy with the results. But I still feel I’m missing something… Or more correctly there’s another factor I haven’t accounted for or haven’t put enough emphasis on.

Firstly I rate runners on API, both career and current campaign, I then add ratings based on race ratings and weight and distance for previous runs (in particular the current campaign) and then I review all my ratings results for each race to cast a knowledgeable opinion over the probable winners..

This approach turns some very happy results ranging in price out to 8 and beyond and it is very reliable.

But I can’t help thinking that there’s something more… The next step so to speak.

Any suggestions?

Hi CairnsMan,

From your first post description, you have your method and by concentrating on one state you create enough focus to be able to know the horses and their idiosyncrasies. This is important especially if you do your own form study rather than simply system betting. I accept that both can be successful methods in their own right and of course the performance depends on their application.

I believe that your path to further improvement can only come from knowing exactly your ratings performance. Such analysis could not only inform you of where you ratings may be weak but also where your strengths lie. This applies to 2 things; your overall ratings and also your actual bets.

Firstly, with the risk of stating the obvious, many punters use ratings, be they self made, freely obtained or from a reputable paid service. To me these punters quite often don’t even know the basic strike rate of these ratings let alone how the rating behaves across the many elements of form and how these can be improved using intelligence that isn't able to be gleamed from information that is easily accessible in the public domain. This is due to the extensive programming required to do the thorough analysis.

Secondly, most punters often invest money on horses that have a historically poor return profile but without proper analysis, they are not even aware that this is happening. This could easily apply to you as you spread the bets across more than 1 runner. Without realising it you could be severely hampering your profit by supporting horses that historically don't make money for you. Eliminating just one or two a meeting could have a significant impact on your bottom line.

Our Axis software can address both of these issues for you in several ways.

1. You can import your rating/s into Axis and then analyse your ratings across 115+ form factors, including the rating numbers themselves. This will quickly show you just how accurate your ratings are and how they perform across all the said form factors. If you find some factors have significant performance differences from others, then you can concentrate on improving that factor in your own ratings.

2. You could then import your bets into axis and actually analyse them, seeing how they perform and with a large enough sample, you will see patterns that you would normally not see. This will enable you to adjust or retain your ideas. As punters, we often develop concepts based on a small sample of ‘what I see’ and without cold hard analysis this sort of knee jerk reaction usually ends up costing money.

3. If you don’t keep records, use Axis and start now! You can use our Personal Horse Flags to ‘note’ your bets or decisions on not to bet so that you can then analyse your betting decisions in a manner not possible with any other racing software package.

In summary Axis will help you improve what you are already doing. Best part is that you could do all of this using even our Historical Axis version which is very cost effective way of analysing historical data assuming that you don't require access to daily data before each days races.

[CairnsMan]

Hi again CairnsMan, Was asking a question, didn't make any statement, so not sure to what you're disagreeing<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:WordDocument> <w:View>Normal</w:View> <w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:PunctuationKerning/> <w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/> <w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w:Compatibility> <w:BreakWrappedTables/> <w:SnapToGridInCell/> <w:WrapTextWithPunct/> <w:UseAsianBreakRules/> <w:DontGrowAutofit/> </w:Compatibility> <w:BrowserLevel>MicrosoftInternetExplorer4</w:BrowserLevel> </w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--> Hi Rhino, I'm sorry if you misinterpret what I was saying. I took your statement as suggesting that I had already succeeded and didn’t recognize it.. I do believe that one must always be striving to better their ratings and ideas, especially with something as fickle as racing

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[CairnsMan]

Hi CairnsMan,

From your first post description, you have your method and by concentrating on one state you create enough focus to be able to know the horses and their idiosyncrasies. This is important especially if you do your own form study rather than simply system betting. I accept that both can be successful methods in their own right and of course the performance depends on their application.

I believe that your path to further improvement can only come from knowing exactly your ratings performance. Such analysis could not only inform you of where you ratings may be weak but also where your strengths lie. This applies to 2 things; your overall ratings and also your actual bets.

Firstly, with the risk of stating the obvious, many punters use ratings, be they self made, freely obtained or from a reputable paid service. To me these punters quite often don’t even know the basic strike rate of these ratings let alone how the rating behaves across the many elements of form and how these can be improved using intelligence that isn't able to be gleamed from information that is easily accessible in the public domain. This is due to the extensive programming required to do the thorough analysis.

Secondly, most punters often invest money on horses that have a historically poor return profile but without proper analysis, they are not even aware that this is happening. This could easily apply to you as you spread the bets across more than 1 runner. Without realising it you could be severely hampering your profit by supporting horses that historically don't make money for you. Eliminating just one or two a meeting could have a significant impact on your bottom line.

Our Axis software can address both of these issues for you in several ways.

1. You can import your rating/s into Axis and then analyse your ratings across 115+ form factors, including the rating numbers themselves. This will quickly show you just how accurate your ratings are and how they perform across all the said form factors. If you find some factors have significant performance differences from others, then you can concentrate on improving that factor in your own ratings.

2. You could then import your bets into axis and actually analyse them, seeing how they perform and with a large enough sample, you will see patterns that you would normally not see. This will enable you to adjust or retain your ideas. As punters, we often develop concepts based on a small sample of ‘what I see’ and without cold hard analysis this sort of knee jerk reaction usually ends up costing money.

3. If you don’t keep records, use Axis and start now! You can use our Personal Horse Flags to ‘note’ your bets or decisions on not to bet so that you can then analyse your betting decisions in a manner not possible with any other racing software package.

In summary Axis will help you improve what you are already doing. Best part is that you could do all of this using even our Historical Axis version which is very cost effective way of analysing historical data assuming that you don't require access to daily data before each days races.Thanks Paul, very positive suggestion... i will look into it as soon as I can

[SpeedyBen]

A very sucessfull punter who I learned a lot from, told me "Never bet more than you'd be comfortable of losing"...

Quite simply, the pressure of losing money creates doubt in the mind of the punter and they make silly mistakes as a result.
I agree with that up to a point but if you are too comfortable with the amount I reckon you can get careless. I prefer to bet an amount which hurts if it loses but which doesn't hurt my bank overall. My weakness over the years has been that I tighten up when the bets get large and end up being so careful that I rarely bet. I have overcome that in recent years since I have had to win but it was a struggle.

[CairnsMan]

I agree with that up to a point but if you are too comfortable with the amount I reckon you can get careless. I prefer to bet an amount which hurts if it loses but which doesn't hurt my bank overall. My weakness over the years has been that I tighten up when the bets get large and end up being so careful that I rarely bet. I have overcome that in recent years since I have had to win but it was a struggle.Agreed SpeedyBen,

My bets are not an amount dependant on my bank but one what i think the runner is worth.. I cautious but not too cautious.. find myself dutching when I should have gone for the win or even going for a place sometimes.. Takes disipline but not in a careless way.

[SpeedyBen]

If you can determine correctly how much each bet is worth you are well on your way to success. Goodonya.

[gunny72]

I think your success is due to the amount of effort you put in to the analysis. This means you are very familiar with each horse's capabilities and your ratings are probably a sort of filter to help you narrow down your own thoughts on a race. I had my best success when I did intensive analysis myself but as you indicate it takes a massive effort.

[partypooper]

Well, I figure this comment will go down with the proverbial "Lead" baloon, but gee, just ask yourself..... you have a ratings system that gives an edge over the bookies, now this "IS" the golden egg,..... isn't it? as long as you keep it to yourself....................i.e. as soon as you "SELL IT" ............ it's gone right, i.e. either the egg is cracked or the Goose is dead, YES?

Think about it?????????

[CairnsMan]

Well, I figure this comment will go down with the proverbial "Lead" baloon, but gee, just ask yourself..... you have a ratings system that gives an edge over the bookies, now this "IS" the golden egg,..... isn't it? as long as you keep it to yourself....................i.e. as soon as you "SELL IT" ............ it's gone right, i.e. either the egg is cracked or the Goose is dead, YES?

Think about it?????????Dear PartyPooper,

I have never sold a rating system and never will. First loser would cause me to fret to death

Regards
CairnsMan

[CairnsMan]

I think your success is due to the amount of effort you put in to the analysis. This means you are very familiar with each horse's capabilities and your ratings are probably a sort of filter to help you narrow down your own thoughts on a race. I had my best success when I did intensive analysis myself but as you indicate it takes a massive effort.Dear Gunny,

The Saying, "No pain, No gain" applies to many things.

[CairnsMan]

If you can determine correctly how much each bet is worth you are well on your way to success. Goodonya.it's just a judgement thing...

[Michal]

Party,

You have a valid point and one could also look at the opposite view; It could be that the egg is well and truly OK and he just wants it bigger and he wants the goose to get even better! There is nothing wrong with, indeed it is commendable, to try to improve ones self especially when all seams to be positive.

Essentially we all differ from how we look at things at the end of the day.

Improvement from a positive winning standpoint is far more likely to succeed then trying to improve from a loosing standpoint with desperation being the driving force.

Most punters underestimate the level of importance that should be attributed to mental state, discipline and consistency in order to succeed in punting.


Kind regards

[aussielongboat]

Seems to me like you are looking for the final or the killer filter.
i am happy to work with you .
to do so can you list your selections for say today and then i will run them thru my filters and come back to you with those that i would eliminate.

could be some fun

cheers

aussie

[CairnsMan]

Party,

You have a valid point and one could also look at the opposite view; It could be that the egg is well and truly OK and he just wants it bigger and he wants the goose to get even better! There is nothing wrong with, indeed it is commendable, to try to improve ones self especially when all seams to be positive.

Essentially we all differ from how we look at things at the end of the day.

Improvement from a positive winning standpoint is far more likely to succeed then trying to improve from a loosing standpoint with desperation being the driving force.

Most punters underestimate the level of importance that should be attributed to mental state, discipline and consistency in order to succeed in punting.


Kind regardsDear Michal,

<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:WordDocument> <w:View>Normal</w:View> <w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:PunctuationKerning/> <w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/> <w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w:Compatibility> <w:BreakWrappedTables/> <w:SnapToGridInCell/> <w:WrapTextWithPunct/> <w:UseAsianBreakRules/> <w:DontGrowAutofit/> </w:Compatibility> <w:BrowserLevel>MicrosoftInternetExplorer4</w:BrowserLevel> </w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--> Those are words of wisdom from an experienced player, I think.

Maybe my egg is big enough and I should just "go back to the drawing board and revise everything" Maybe is just a confidence thing and I should put more faith in my own ability... I don't really know the answer but I should see it in the stats.

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[CairnsMan]

Seems to me like you are looking for the final or the killer filter.
i am happy to work with you .
to do so can you list your selections for say today and then i will run them thru my filters and come back to you with those that i would eliminate.

could be some fun

cheers

aussie<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:WordDocument> <w:View>Normal</w:View> <w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:PunctuationKerning/> <w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/> <w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w:Compatibility> <w:BreakWrappedTables/> <w:SnapToGridInCell/> <w:WrapTextWithPunct/> <w:UseAsianBreakRules/> <w:DontGrowAutofit/> </w:Compatibility> <w:BrowserLevel>MicrosoftInternetExplorer4</w:BrowserLevel> </w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--> Dear AussieLongBoat.



Many years ago I gave a friend a couple of casual tips for a meeting at Mooney Valley but as it was raining I added that I didn’t have a lot of faith in them. The Friday night it teemed down, swamping the track and I just decided to go shopping for the day and forget the races.



On the Monday, my friend’s wife was ready to kill me. She was livid! Would you believe that he bet ALL of his pay on the first of the two runners with the idea of doubling up on the second. Both runners finished nearer last than first and she decided that I was the most evil individual on the planet. This tirade kept up for weeks and I think I learned a lesson. (truly … Hell hath no fury like ……)



I don’t give tips and I don’t try to guide others. For that reason and because many others are reading this forum I’ll politely decline your offer, but if you send me and email at admin@ozpunter.net I can discuss my selections and ideas on today’s Randwick meeting.



Kind Regards

CairnsMan

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[aussielongboat]

<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:WordDocument> <w:View>Normal</w:View> <w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:PunctuationKerning/> <w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/> <w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w:Compatibility> <w:BreakWrappedTables/> <w:SnapToGridInCell/> <w:WrapTextWithPunct/> <w:UseAsianBreakRules/> <w:DontGrowAutofit/> </w:Compatibility> <w:BrowserLevel>MicrosoftInternetExplorer4</w:BrowserLevel> </w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--> Dear AussieLongBoat.



Many years ago I gave a friend a couple of casual tips for a meeting at Mooney Valley but as it was raining I added that I didn’t have a lot of faith in them. The Friday night it teemed down, swamping the track and I just decided to go shopping for the day and forget the races.



On the Monday, my friend’s wife was ready to kill me. She was livid! Would you believe that he bet ALL of his pay on the first of the two runners with the idea of doubling up on the second. Both runners finished nearer last than first and she decided that I was the most evil individual on the planet. This tirade kept up for weeks and I think I learned a lesson. (truly … Hell hath no fury like ……)



I don’t give tips and I don’t try to guide others. For that reason and because many others are reading this forum I’ll politely decline your offer, but if you send me and email at admin@ozpunter.net I can discuss my selections and ideas on today’s Randwick meeting.



Kind Regards

CairnsMan

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that's good - i will email you.
don't worry about me betting them - i have enough problems with my own so i don't need any more stress,

cheers
aussie

[CairnsMan]

that's good - i will email you.
don't worry about me betting them - i have enough problems with my own so i don't need any more stress,

cheers
aussieI'll look forward to it...

[CairnsMan]

Overall I'm happy with todays result up 40+% on my bank so can't complain about that.

Green Moon for the cup and Salon Soldier ... wow...

[partypooper]

every excuse will be heard from those who "SELL" tips!!

[CairnsMan]

every excuse will be heard from those who "SELL" tips!!I don't sell tips, never have never will..