"I wanna be a pro"

[partypooper]

Sound familiar? well like a lot of others thats what I would like to do, I'm not greedy don't expect to win a fortune. Problem is at this stage I do not have enough faith in my own selection methods, (not enough data over time etc.) my expertise is probably more on the mathematical side rather than the horseflesh side of things. My question is to those that are successful punters: With the $100,000 in the mortage account and available, (and a small income from rentals) and working on the 1% of bank rule (my mind works better thinking in terms of level stakes, but I may be persuaded otherwise later)

I'm thinking of using a well known ratings service, that already produces a level stakes profit (top rated)and an excellent strike rate (top 3)
My idea is to only bet when overs of at least 20% are available, which looks as if it will give about 8 investments a week.

Is it possible or am I dreaming (still)?

I'm also told that IAS will accept a bet at best bookie price, with a stipulation of a minimum price or no-bet, can anyone confirm this????

I.e. SR1-1 $1000 win @best bookie price, (minmum price 2/1. or no bet)???? if this is true then you would be able to place your bet with the minimum price set to say 20% above the rated price, (get my drift?)

[topsy99]

be careful. i started punting as an interest 25 years ago. my target was to be disciplined and not to lose money.
i was interested in the computing and testing of all the theories but my main aim was to be patient and learn not to lose.
i now have some houses a business etc and still working and cant attribute anything to winning on the horses but i think i can attribute a lot to not losing.
i dont think you can assume you can lose today and pick it up next week.

a theory of gambling is that if you do it long enough you will lose what the game says you should lose.
in the case of t.a.b. betting this is 15% of turnover.
greed kills. good luck and be patient and learn as much from your statistics and research as possible. it all helps.

[Mr. Logic]

On 2003-05-27 16:05, partypooper wrote:
I'm also told that IAS will accept a bet at best bookie price, with a stipulation of a minimum price or no-bet, can anyone confirm this????

I.e. SR1-1 $1000 win @best bookie price, (minmum price 2/1. or no bet)????

Where did you hear that partypooper? It's news to me.

[Chrome Prince]

partypooper,

Some advice.

Betting professionally, many will say it can't be done, but it can given a few rules in place first and foremost.
I don't know your personal situation, but you must have the support of your immediate family.
You cannot attempt to enter into a very nerve racking profession under extreme pressure and negativity.
You should not be relying on ratings or selections from someone else to be a true professional - you have no control and bad selections are out of your hands.
You won't have the confidence to bet when going through a bad run which inevitably happens.
My advice would be to have a reasonable past history of profit based on sound criteria which turns a reasonable profit without extreme losing runs.
I would sacrifice some degree of profit for stability and risk minimalization.
There a quite a few different successful approaches and not one "golden" answer.
I would suggest going part time at first until you become comfortable with taking the emotion out of racing and treat is as a pure source of income.
Not to say that you won't enjoy the wins and suffer the losses, but becoming emotionally involved will inevitably cause bad judgement and waivering from your own strict rules, which you must always have.
You should have a clear objective of what exactly you hope to achieve.
You should have the funding to cope with losses and losing runs, but it should never ever be borrowed money, it should be money set aside, as with any business.
If you are able to achieve a 20% profit per annum, (I achieve about 10 - 15%) then you would need a bank of $150,000 to make an annual income of $30,000, but you don't need to (and probably shouldn't) start like this.
That's why I say to start part time, because you can build up not only your bank (without the initial heavy risk) and at the same time build your confidence and make any mistakes early in the peace rather than later when you are dealing with a sizeable bank.
If you are truly going to be professional and make a go of it, you can start small and build up.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Chrome Prince on 2003-05-27 22:45 ]</font>

[partypooper]

Topsy99, Thanks for that, I do believe that I am long enough in the tooth to be VERY patient. making the Mil.+ (after 30 years of graft) and losing more than half through the ridiculous Divorce laws, has mellowed me in many ways. Your honesty is appreciated.

Mr. logic, thought I'd read the "no bet if" facilty in some literature that IAS sent me, but it went astray. I then asked a "popular" figure at Ascot one day who assured me that it was available, but have not yet received a reply from IAS,... I will post the result if and when it arrives.

[partypooper]

Chrome Prince!
Thanks for your MOST welcome comments, and if fact I am now considering spreading the risk more using 2 or more services with good records, also applying my own "rules" but just to take you up on a couple of points
(1) I would not use borrowed money, (I have taken some amazing risks like that in the past but definitely not now) my Hundred Grand is PARKED in the Mortgage account, but is NOT borrowed funds.,.... well depends how you look at that I suppose , but anyway not in the way that you meant.

(2) My thoughts were to retain a bank of One hundred Thousand, (hoping to hell that I never actually had to use anywhere near that)and drawing a small weekly salary (my requirements now are fairly frugal)
I expected that I would make 8 investments a week on average @15 of the bank i.e. T/o of $8000 per week, or about $400, 000 per annum.

Although the aim was for 20% POT, in reality I was thinking around the 10-12% mark might be achieved, which according to my calculations would result in an income of about $45-$50,000.p/a

In your example, are you suggesting that one would be lucky to make 10% of THE BANK?????per Annum? not POT???? as if so that would equate to about 2.5% POT (based on a T/O of $400,000, that being the case I would take your point and leave the cash in Mortagage account instead (saving 6.5% p/a) with no fun but no risk iether.

[partypooper]

That should have read:

(2) My thoughts were to retain a bank of One hundred Thousand, (hoping to hell that I never actually had to use anywhere near that)and drawing a small weekly salary (my requirements now are fairly frugal)
I expected that I would make 8 investments a week on average @1.5 % of the bank i.e. T/o of $8000 per week, or about $400, 000 per annum.

[Chrome Prince]

partypooper - replies contained within:-

On 2003-05-28 00:52, partypooper wrote:
(1) I would not use borrowed money, (I have taken some amazing risks like that in the past but definitely not now) my Hundred Grand is PARKED in the Mortgage account, but is NOT borrowed funds.,.... well depends how you look at that I suppose , but anyway not in the way that you meant.


Yes, it seems you have that covered, it's just I hear and read so many stories on this and other forums about borrowed money in the strict sense of the term.
What you are suggesting is quite o.k.

(2) My thoughts were to retain a bank of One hundred Thousand, (hoping to hell that I never actually had to use anywhere near that)and drawing a small weekly salary (my requirements now are fairly frugal)
I expected that I would make 8 investments a week on average @15 of the bank i.e. T/o of $8000 per week, or about $400, 000 per annum.

Yes one would hope never to have to dip to that huge extent into the original bank, but sooner or later you will experience a tough time which should bounce back. You just want to ensure that you can financially weather the storm without too much stress.
Again, what you are proposing is quite reasonable because in essence you are only betting 1% of the bank on each selection.

Although the aim was for 20% POT, in reality I was thinking around the 10-12% mark might be achieved, which according to my calculations would result in an income of about $45-$50,000.p/a

In your example, are you suggesting that one would be lucky to make 10% of THE BANK?????per Annum? not POT???? as if so that would equate to about 2.5% POT (based on a T/O of $400,000, that being the case I would take your point and leave the cash in Mortagage account instead (saving 6.5% p/a) with no fun but no risk iether.

Anything up to 20% is achievable, but your 10-12% is probably more likely per annum.
You'll have months where you make 30% or more and others where you make 5% or less
(a loss).
Just talking averages here.
Sorry, I was actually talking POT but didn't express it well.
Even a small POT, say 5% can turn into a good per annum percentage providing your staking plan is conservative and doesn't get out of hand with a run of losses.

[darkydog2002]

MR.LOGIC.I CAN CONFIRM THIS AS I DO IT THROUGH MARK READ .

THE ONLY WAY TO TRAVEL REALLY.

[xanadu]

G'day,

Many years ago I heard some advice from a bona-fide "professional" who reiterated that no-one could make a success of punting/wagering if they were using "scared money" ie. money thay had borrowed or could not really afford to lose. This is where each prospective "professional" must become very introspective and weigh up their own personal circumstances. They must be brutally honest with themselves and determine that if the worst was to happen and they lost their "bank" would this mean financial ruin to themselves and their family.
If anyone is not willing to undergo this personal examination then my suggestion is to remain a "hobby" punter and enjoy your pastime and entertainment.

Cheers.

[Paddy]

May I suggest that most of this forum's members are "professional" hobby punters, like myself - nothing wrong with that! :wink:

[Merriguy]

Have been reading this thread with much interest. Thanks for starting it, Partypooper.

My question is, if you try to bet on only horses that provide 20% overs, what strike rate can you confidently expect? One would expect most to lose? Perhaps someone could enlighten me???

[partypooper]

Merryguy, thanks for pre-empting my next question, and that is the reason that although my aim is for 20% POT, allowing for a slightly lesser SR, so would be happy with 10-12% POT. But the real answer to your question is "guess I'll have to wait and see"
There are some ratings services available that already achieve an acceptable POT at level stakes, theroetically, according to all the experts that should actually IMPROVE, if you only back the overs (especially best price bet) of course one also has to consider the COST of the services. It's a pity but I presume that no-one can advise me on this forum as to the most successfull ratings services (proven over a long period)

[Merriguy]

Most rating services that suggest you only bet when there are overs (I would think)would expect you to take into account all --- even small --- overs from the selections they provide. This would be a different thing to just betting on those that are assessed at more than 20% though. Am I right?

[partypooper]

Merryguy, wish I had all the answers already. As I said I feel better with level stakes, but betting to prices is a very real option. So far most of what I've read suggests that the greater the overlay the better the result over time. Punters choice has a few examples of Double overlays and or 1.5 overlays being the most successful but of course this limits the bets quite considerably, and doesn't really appeal to me.
My gut feeling about 20% is not so adventurous, I mean say we have a top rated at say 5/2, we are looking for a BEST price bet of 3/1, remembering that the conveyance could end up 2/1 or less (win or lose ) but of course we are taking our selections from a base that has already a proven SR. Most of the top raters would be at the lower end of the prices anyway. Of course the NO BET IF stipulation would see us NOT ON some winners, but thats the name of the game. If you have any suggestions I'm listening as believe me I am learning still of course. In fact I believe that I will always be learning

[partypooper]

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[xanadu]

If you are contemplating this course of earning a liveable wage/income then under no circumstances choose or follow a progression/target based strategy. Invariably, you will strike a crippling run of outs when you will question your own selection methods and be tempted to chase losses by way of "The Martingdale" method of doubling up or steep progression loss chasing. I can guarantee you that, if you do, you will go broke very quickly.
The only progression method which has an in-built safety valve is the unit progression method. That is, commence betting at a pre-determined percentage of your bank in "units." Hopefully, as your success builds then you increase the value of your "units," say, every time you increase your bank by $500 then your "unit" increases by $1 or whatever. This way you maintain control over your bank and size of investments and do not panic and bet recklessly.
The inimitable Don Scott also had his horror run of outs. I remember when he outlined one occasion when he had struck 16 straight losses and sat at Tatts Club in Sydney, depressed, doubting himself and wondering what to do. Should he chase his losses and risk incurring further debt or syick to his time-tested strategy and hopefully get himself out of this problem. He subsequently regained all of his losses then went on to win a small fortune. The main thing was "HE DIDN'T PANIC!"
That's the main thing to maintain punting longevity.

Cheers.

[thekey]

A most interesting post!

re: the 20% overlays and there effect on your S/R. This is obviously going to vary from service to service and I can only speak from my experience, which is with ratings I put together myself. The only certainty is that underlays will win more then overlays. From one group(by price) the strike rate is 26%, but the overlays is only 20% and the underlays 37%. This is a big difference. ie if it is an underlay it is nearly twice as likely to win as if it were an overlay! This can be very frustrating and play tricks if you stick to pure overs betting and is something which must be considered.

Partypooper
You say you want to use a couple of services for your information. If you haven't already I would strongly suggest you attempt to get a trial period or some past ratings from them so you can see what you will be getting. Talking to a current member is also good however I bet they put you in contact with a staisfied customer.
The reason I bring this up is because I have tried two different services, one for a month and the other for 4 days. I realise this is probably an unreasonably short time to evaluate the worth of their product however it was long enough for me to realise that what they provided wasn't for me. I didn't like the unknown factor, ie I had to trust them inherently to have done a good job and then put my money on the line. This may suit some people, but not me. This can only be found out by actually doing it. It is irrelevant even doing it on paper because you have nothing to lose and therefore no emotion attached to it. By the way I don't care what anybody says or how much you can control it there will always be some level of emotion involved in winning and losing. Just try backing 25 losers in a row and lining up for another go without feeling just a little bit of doubt. Or alternately who can honestly say there is no rush involved in winning? However it is utmost to winning in the long run that you do your best to return to an even keel ASAP as it can be equally destructive to think you've got no idea or to think you are bulletproof.

Another thought, I have found doing my own ratings to be a most useful tool. Sure it takes time but it forces you to evaluate each horse in every race you are doing. You can not help but learn something about them!

Getting back to what I mentioned above about not knowing how a service arrived at their conclusions. When you do it yourself you know why a certain horse is not amongst your top picks but is the favourite, on the flipside you might know why a horse you give a good chance to is 20/1, have you over emphasised something? has the crowd forgotten or underrated an important fact? Knowing why can be a big help.

Also I am beginning to think more and more that the final number you come up with is not the be all and end all. It is merely you're guide to the relative chances and other subjective matters must be considered before placing a bet.

Sorry for going on a bit but I hope at least some of it made sense.

[thekey]

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: thekey on 2003-05-29 13:23 ]</font>

Partypooper,have you weighed up all the pros and cons(no pun intended)of venturing into the realm of professional punting?You said in a previous post you have 100 grand"parked"in a mortgage account,how would it affect your life if you were to lose it?When I look back at all the "noted"professional punters,most of them died broke!Don Scott took his own life.Why?Pressures of the punt?Horrific losing run?I guess we will never know.I cannot agree with the theory that betting on horses is "investing."It is GAMBLING.and any form of gambling is a game of chance.To me,investing is buying a house,a piece of dirt,shares in the stockmarket,etc.at least if you invest in any of these avenues and the market falls,you can sit back and wait and hope that it will rise again.When you "invest"on a racehorse,if it loses your money is immediately gone.I think(my opinion only)that by becoming a "pro"you remove all the excitement and fun out of trying to beat the game,and place enormous pressure on yourself to maintain a certain strike rate and thus generate an income.However,if you are hellbent on pursuing this course of action,I would suggest the following:
With your 100 grand:
Create two banks of $25000
Bank No.1 as the operative bank
Bank No.2 as the reserve bank
Invest the other $50000 in a managed fund
Invest the reserve bank in a short term deposit(hopefully never to be brought into play)
Bet 2% of the operative bank on each selection.
Always bet 2% of the bank,so if you are winning,your bets will rise or fall accordingly.
I think you need that safety brake,at least until you find your feet.
I'm sorry if you think that I am preaching to you,because I am not.I just don't want you to go down the gurgler.As for ratings services,I don't think you can past Warren Block,he has stood the test of time,and I think he will give you a free trial if you contact him.Malcom Knowles is another one who you should talk to,he is the BEST in the business.If you want his number,let me know and i will email it to you.

[xanadu]

G'day angel,

Good to speak to you once again. Your advice(definitely not preaching) was well centred. Some people are just not suited to punting(or even professional punting for that matter). Your advice will hopefully, suggest to those who are contemplating this course of action is that it is a minefield and a trap for the unwary.
I must admit that I am constantly amazed by those people who unwittingly outlay $1000's on untried "systems."
I am thinking that there is more potential profit from changing tactics. No more 50 hours a week on form study-just sell a "system" -there seem to be unlimited potential clients.

Cheers.

[TAUTO]

Why are people talking 'bout what strike rate and POT to expect. If you do not already know these things from your own experiences, then you are in the wrong game.

How can you even consider being a pro without such experieces?

Tauto,what a horse he was!!Mate,you are spot on.If you don't know your own strike rate,odds range of winners over an elongated period of time(at least 5 years)then forget it.

[partypooper]

Firstly, many thanks to all that have advised me. One or two were way up the wrong track, but I'm sure it was all well meant.
Quickly, my first bet was on "Jay Trump" now there's a poser for ya?? clue, I was born in England in 1951.
(1) No way will I use borrowed money.

(2) I'm NOT considering target betting in any way here, although I have used that b4.

(3) The 2 0r more services that I am considering are the most respected in OZ I believe, (this ones for darkydog)

(4) I have already got my Managed Fund, and BT account, plus .6 in property (commercial)
the 100, IS my working bank, with the reserve available if necessary. (it only took me 37 years to get here by the way)pathetic I know, but remember I was dealing with The Family Court of WA. ????????

Anyway , now I want to pursue my passion, on the question of losing runs, of course one is as prepared for that as much as one can be,
but of course it depends when they come as to the effect, especially on a new starter, i.e. if you accumalate 30g and then hit a losing run of 25g, the affect, though devastating will NOT be as great as if your first 20 bets fail @ $1000 each, etc etc.

[partypooper]

PS. as to the knockers, great stuff, give's me added incentive. ALL the people who knocked my first commercial building project, are "ALL VERY" silent now, except for one who happened to be born the right gender for the WA Family Court.

[Shaun]

Hey partypooper....you live in WA same here...we might have to get together at belmont one day.....i wonder who else on here is in WA

[partypooper]

Shaun, yep here in WA, as I think are a lot of other posters, (reading between the lines)
but it appears that they wish to remain "clandestine" which is ok, as for me, my business is open Saturdays which , unfortunately makes it very difficult to get to Belmont or Ascot on Saturdays, but I'm sure that we can exchange ideas here or by e-mail.

[jfc]

Merryguy, wish I had all the answers already. As I said I feel better with level stakes, but betting to prices is a very real option. So far most of what I've read suggests that the greater the overlay the better the result over time. Punters choice has a few examples of Double overlays and or 1.5 overlays being the most successful but of course this limits the bets quite considerably, and doesn't really appeal to me.


This is a convenient spot to highlight the difference between Edge and Overlay - when talking about quantities.

Assuming that fractional odds are used.

7/2 available about a (true) 7/4 chance is one example of a double overlay.

The corresponding Edge is (7/2+1) / (7/4+1) = 18/11 = 1.64 which is significantly less than than double.

[crash]

Hi Party,

Nice too see you aiming high, but I think you have forgotten the most important maxim in punting: 'Never bet what you can't afford to lose".

Most Pro punters can, or they wouldn't be Pros. Generally they are well backed up by stock, property and business investments and their punting bank is just a small amount of their worth.

You would probably make more money investing in blue chips. Being a bit of a punter, resource stocks look a lot better than horses and nowhere near as risky.

[wildtom]

My goodness, are my eyes deceiving me or are we in a time warp?!? - wipe the dust and cobwebs off this little thread - last action before today was 2nd June 2003, 02:39 AM :eek: this forum’s got it all! :)

[Chrome Prince]

It was resurrected from deep within the bowels of the forum.

[Punter4211]

Hi,
wouldn’t we all like to kick back, enjoy the sunshine and pick up a paper on Friday and tick a few columns and bingo... Instant riches.....

Sorry Dreamers that isn’t the way it works....

Professional Punting is a highly disciplined, nerve wracking, and time intensive way to make little more than the average worker...

You need to study EVERY RACE, EVERY TRIAL, assess EVERY replay, EVERY Video and read, read, read....

It's damm hard work...

Professionals assess everything and work to a set of hard to come by rules that they themselves have formulated over a long period of time...

An amature would be anyone who puts in less than 3-4 hours EVERY day. (Sundays as well)

I'm only an amature and I put in two hours listening and watching videos every day and I have a database of thousands of races over two or more years.

It can be achieved though, but you might only get 1-2 bets a month

You don't have to be big.. A $1.80 winner at $5000 will get you $4000 do those once a month and you've made wages?
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Oh and about IAS... My tip here is read the fine print! I took a "Best Fluctuation" with them once and it paid 20c less than their own fixed price... Don't be too keen to be a big shot. Make sure you understand the rules. Read Them!

[Shaun]

Ozpunter, not saying what you say is not correct for your style of punting....but there are a couple of guys on here that are not in to form and don't watch replays but are very much Pro Punters.

I would consider a professional anyone that relys on winning to make ends meet they may not win all the time but is there main income ,it is a new age of punter and it calls for new styles and ideas of punting.

[partypooper]

Wow, this really is an old one that I started, and I'm slightly ashamed to say that I am not really all THAT much further forward, except I am really, in the sense that my ideas are still holding up, I just haven't had the guts to really go for it and increase stakes. It's mainly because of trips overseas, and then a loss of confidence.

Treading water for the last 6 months didn't help, betting mainly at Belmont, but then again, almost break even and a free trip around the world again in December/March, fills me with the determination to really get into it come March 2006!!

Chrome, I reflect on something that you said about constantly reviewing ones ideas, which I have done and have implemeted a few changes for the better!

[Punter4211]

Ozpunter, not saying what you say is not correct for your style of punting....but there are a couple of guys on here that are not in to form and don't watch replays but are very much Pro Punters.

I would consider a professional anyone that relies on winning to make ends meet they may not win all the time but is there main income ,it is a new age of punter and it calls for new styles and ideas of punting. You're right Shaun,

It's different strokes for different blokes, but there are a lot of people who read this forum and may get the idea that Professional Punting is an easy way to make big bucks. It's not the case...

If anyone is thinking about buying a "Guaranteed System" to make a fortune... forget it --- Just send me the money and I'll give you all the tips you need. some good ones and some who run second by a nose... My strike rate is over 70% (in Summer) so you can do a lot worse than that by buying a system

My point is that if you want to make a living at Pro-Punting don't think it's a joy ride... It definitely is not. I study form, others have their own methods.. But it definitely is not an easy way to make a living


Oh and while I'm on the subject... In over 20 Yrs of studying Races I've met only a couple of people who were true professional punters... That is they make their entire living from placing bets.... I've run into several who claim to be professional punters and all they do is sell unsuspecting mugs schemes that tip the Favorites... The have a reasonable hit rate (as they will with Favorites) and crow about their successes... They're making more money out of their con job that by betting, so beware....

Most serious punters are a silent crowd..
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[Shaun]

I will agree on that point it is no easy thing being a pro punter if it was everyone would do it.

[TheAvenger]

Party:

In my 23 years of betting horses here in the USA, I have met no professional punters; just hobbyists like myself. I have known a person or two who tried to turn pro but failed miserably. I have met some really talented handicappers, and have even been told I am one also, but no one can consistently stay ahead of the 20-25% takeout that they rape us with. Not much help to you I'm sure, since you punt in Australia, but just wanted to point out that its a tough game everywhere. Good luck, wish you well.

Regards,

Glenn

[crash]

Thanks for that Avenger.

Knowing that you are getting ripped of even more than we are by track cut, makes me feel a hell of a lot better:-)

PS. Tell you what though, you have the most talented and innovative handicappers in the world. I read them a lot. Just ****** brilliant.

Cheers mate.

[partypooper]

The Avenger and all, yes it's so frustrating that I have at least 6 plans that hover around break even or a tiny profit. Food for thought that in the old days any of them would have been the golden goose even that 10-15% take off (betting best tote/ best fluc) would provide a decent living!!