Short Turnaround

[Vortech]

I'm currently running without a database
But I'm wondering if any other punters have invested time into runners within a Days Last Start of 3-5 days

Can someone please test the following over their database

Days Last Start = 3-5 days
Career starts = 1-6
Last Start Position = 4th or worse

Appreciate

Regards

[mattio]

Hi Vortech,

I ran this for you going back to start of 2008 and the results suggest that this finds longshots.

SHORT TURNAROUND
Career Starts: 1 - 6
Days to Last Start: 3 - 5
Last Start Finish Pos: 4 - 24

SYSTEM RESULTS FOR: TEST_SHORT TURNAROUND 01/01/2008-07/11/2013
WIN PLACE QUINELLA EXACTA TRIFECTA FIRST FOUR
Races Bet: 858 855 858 857 858 793
Races Won: 69 191 106 52 40 30
S.R./Race: 8.0% 22.3% 12.4% 6.1% 4.7% 3.8%
Outlay($): 909.00 906.00 4916.00 4927.00 22092.00 72540.00
Return : 903.50 715.94 4194.80 5102.70 24132.30 50146.40
$ Profit : -5.50 -190.06 -721.20 175.70 2040.30 -22393.60
% P.O.T. : -0.6% -21.0% -14.7% 3.6% 9.2% -30.9%

I'll run it again with last start 1-3 and see what that gives you.

Matt.

[bernie]

Hi mattio,

What if we take out the Career starts 1-6 and replace it with Won at Course?

Cheers,
B

[mattio]

Hi Bernie,

Sure I can do that, had a hiccup with the DB software so had to re-run it for LSF 1-3 which is looking alot better.

Cheers,

Matt.

[Chrome Prince]

As a rule, mares and fillies do not back up well and need longer than colts geldings and horses. Mares more so than fillies.

Eliminate fillies and mares.
Career starts 1 - 6
Days break 3 - 5

Last start placing irrelevant.

Profit $128.20
Pot 8.44%

Although strike rate only 10.73% and one dividend was $115.50.

Last run placing
1 22.22% strike rate 9.33% POT
2 23.70% strike rate 4.37% POT
3 15.97% strike rate 14.03% POT
4 14.66% strike rate 20.43% LOT
>4 6.87% strike rate 11.35% POT

Again important to note, the double figure POTs all came from one bolter :(

Last start placing 1st or 2nd gives a nice 6.36% POT at tote prices without longshots making up the profit :D

*The above figures are eliminating fillies and mares.

[mattio]

Vortech,

Here is the results with LSF 1-3.

SHORT TURNAROUND 2
Career Starts: 1 - 6
Days to Last Start: 3 - 5
Last Start Finish Pos: 1 - 3

SYSTEM RESULTS FOR: TEST_SHORT TURNAROUND 2 01/01/2008-07/11/2013
WIN PLACE QUINELLA EXACTA TRIFECTA FIRST FOUR
Races Bet: 260 258 260 260 260 246
Races Won: 58 127 71 42 33 23
S.R./Race: 22.3% 49.2% 27.3% 16.2% 12.7% 9.3%
Outlay($): 266.00 264.00 1365.00 1368.00 5724.00 17628.00
Return : 311.80 275.28 1126.40 1592.80 6731.20 26053.80
$ Profit : 45.80 11.28 -238.60 224.80 1007.20 8425.80
% P.O.T. : 17.2% 4.3% -17.5% 16.4% 17.6% 47.8%

[bernie]

Hi Bernie,

Sure I can do that, had a hiccup with the DB software so had to re-run it for LSF 1-3 which is looking alot better.

Cheers,

Matt.Do I understand you correctly, your results are from:

Days Last Start = 3-5 days
Won at course
LSF 1- 3

Cheers,
Bernie

[mattio]

No, the last one posted has the original rules but LSF 1-3 instead of 4+, here are the results for the first test replacing Starts 1-6 with Won at Course.

SHORT TURNAROUND 3
Days to Last Start: 3 - 5
Last Start Finish Pos: 4 - 24
Won at This Course: Y

SYSTEM RESULTS FOR: TEST_SHORT TURNAROUND 3 01/01/2008-07/11/2013
WIN PLACE QUINELLA EXACTA TRIFECTA FIRST FOUR
Races Bet: 1272 1267 1272 1272 1271 1214
Races Won: 157 420 247 124 93 66
S.R./Race: 12.3% 33.1% 19.4% 9.7% 7.3% 5.4%
Outlay($): 1375.00 1370.00 7512.00 7542.00 34224.00 118140.00
Return : 1454.70 1397.64 8508.00 9013.80 37973.90 95282.80
$ Profit : 79.70 27.64 996.00 1471.80 3749.90 -22857.20
% P.O.T. : 5.8% 2.0% 13.3% 19.5% 11.0% -19.3%

I will do these rules with LSF 1-3 next.

[bernie]

Great stuff mattio, really appreciated.

Cheers,
Bernie

[mattio]

No worries Bernie, here are the results of the latest test.

SHORT TURNAROUND 4
Days to Last Start: 3 - 5
Last Start Finish Pos: 1 - 3
Won at This Course: Y

SYSTEM RESULTS FOR: TEST_SHORT TURNAROUND 4 01/01/2008-07/11/2013
WIN PLACE QUINELLA EXACTA TRIFECTA FIRST FOUR
Races Bet: 616 613 616 615 616 584
Races Won: 109 281 172 82 60 40
S.R./Race: 17.7% 45.8% 27.9% 13.3% 9.7% 6.8%
Outlay($): 676.00 673.00 3490.00 3532.00 15140.00 47676.00
Return : 586.50 689.10 3320.60 2591.30 11701.40 40986.70
$ Profit : -89.50 16.10 -169.40 -940.70 -3438.60 -6689.30
% P.O.T. : -13.2% 2.4% -4.9% -26.6% -22.7% -14.0%

I will try and break them down over the next few days using CP's observations and see what I come up with.

[bernie]

Cheers mattio