Lay Formula Needed

[Shaun]

Hey all, i know this is a simple answer but my mind is blank and i can't find the answer in the 100s of excel sheets i have.

Lay 1 runner to pay out $100
Lay 2 runners as savers.

I know it is in the percentages but escapes me.

[UselessBettor]

Lay 1 runner to pay out $100

This bit is the easy bit and is 100/(odds-1)

Lay 2 runners as savers

This bit is hard. I can get close but I don't know the exact equation.

[Shaun]

If i was only laying one runner to save is easy you just lay it to pay out the hold on the first lay bet but when there are 2 you use percentages to work out the hold on each.

Mark would know he is the lay specialist on here.

[Shaun]

Not sure if this is what i want but will do for now.

We have 3 runners lay prices of

4.38
4.88
5.70

First runner we lay to payout 100
100/4.38=Lay 22.83

2nd runner
22.83/4.88=Lay 4.68

3rd runner
22.83/5.70=Lay 4.01

Runner 1=Loss 68.49
Runner 2=Profit 8.68
Runner 3=Profit 8.68

No Winner= Profit 29.47
Results after comission

[evajb001]

Shaun, I think I can work out the maths behind this if you'd like, just need some clarification on it.

Is what your saying the following:

Lay 1 runner to liability of $100.

i.e. in your example if the $4.38 horse wins, you payout $100 however if it loses you receive $29.58 ($100/(4.38-1))

However you also want to lay 2 other runners as 'savers' which I take to mean you want the fact that if your $4.38 horse wins, you still break even from the lay's on the other two horses, is this correct?

I'll work on it now based on the above as I assume thats what you mean.

[Shaun]

Not exactly, if one of the other 2 horses win i break even, so the liability on each of the other runners needs to equal the profit from the first runner plus the other runner that failed, this is why you need to use percentages, i am sure i had the maths for this at one point if it was possible.

[evajb001]

I got it solved for you Shaun, as follows is the calcs.

Horse 1 ($4.38)

As we've stated before this is the simple part, you want a $100 liability so to work out what your profit is if Horse 1 loses is simply $100/($4.38-1) which equals $29.58

Horse 2 ($4.88) & Horse 3 ($5.70)

First step is work out %'s of each horse:

$4.88 = 1/4.88 = 0.204918
$5.70 = 1/5.70 = 0.175439

Next you sum these for 0.380357 which you then convert back to odds to give the combined odds of these runners:

1/0.380357 = 2.629112

As you want your combined liability of these two to equal the profit from Horse 1 you can work out the combined profit achieved by these runners which is simply:

29.5858/(2.629112 - 1) = 18.1607

So now that you have the target profit of these two Horses to ensure a $29.5858 liability you just have to split between the two based on their odds, so:

0.204918 / 0.380357 = 0.538752 * 18.1607 = 9.784118 Profit target for Horse 2

0.175439 / 0.380357 = 0.461248 * 18.1607 = 8.376578 Profit target for Horse 3

Now that you have the profit targets for each individual horse so that they combined break even if either of them lose, you simply work backwards to find their liabilities:

Horse 2 = 9.784118 * (4.88 - 1) = 37.96238

Horse 3 = 8.376578 * (5.70 - 1) = 39.36992

Therefore your returns based on each horse winning =

Horse 1 = -$81.84
Horse 2 = $0
Horse 3 = $0

Any other horse = $47.75

I hope all of the above makes sense, if not let me know and I can provide the example in excel format so you can see all the equations working.

[UselessBettor]

Nice work Evajb001.

[Shaun]

Thanks mate, i have added it to a calculator sheet i posted on site.