Thanks First By A Nose

[Marcus]

I looked for value from your tips and got $14.60 for Missing Page at Eagle Farm. I'm excited.

[darkydog2002]

Pocket the money Marcus.
If there up to their usual form the next win will be around January.

[Marcus]

Don't know about you Darky but I've done well with Lucky Lil and now First By A Nose. I know when Lucky Lil tips big winners there'll be losing runs. Noone in the world can tip big winners every few bets. I've always accepted losing runs when I'm confident the selections are good over an extended period of time. I just copied this from http://www.propun.com.au/betting_advice.html
With days like this I've got so far in front it's not funny!

Like three tips for a $31.00 winner on Saturday, 24th. August!

Like three tips for an $8.20 winner on Saturday, 17th. August!
Who can forget Lucky Lil's winning tips on some of the biggest Melbourne Spring Carnival racing days of 2012?

Like:

On Caulfield Cup Day Lucky Lil tipped $15.00 Caulfield Cup Winner Dunaden and Snitsky $6.50 at Randwick!

On Cox Plate Day from 3 tips Lucky Lil tipped $10.00 Winner Mosse Diva at Rosehill.

[darkydog2002]

I tried them too Marcus over the years but the dry spell between the odd winner darn near sent me broke.
Never again

But everyone to their own.

[Marcus]

Absolutely sensational First by a Nose. Thanks for tipping Padrino at Eagle Farm. I got $51.00. Yippee!!!!!!!!!

[darkydog2002]

Well I must admit I did give them another try yesterday

8 selections but 3 sctratched which gave me 5 to bet on.

Not being entirely stupid I went looking for value as is the suggestion

5 Horses so I want $6

The prices were 8/1 - 6.5/1 - 30/1 - 16/1 - 50/1

Theoretical Bank $5000 betting to take 4 % of bank on each bet $200

8/1 = $22 - 6.5 /1 = $27 - 30/1 = $6 - 16/1 - 50/1 = $4

I will do this each week and follow up for 3 months.

Hopefully it might be ok betting in this manner.

Remember though that this is only theoretical

Profit $133

[walkermac]

Box their 6 rated picks in that same race for a First 4 and it earns $19k on the Queensland tab. Slightly less in NSW or Victoria.

Goes to show the value in finding/picking (false) outsiders in Multis...

[darkydog2002]

Too true.

Cheers

[Mr. Logic]

.... I went looking for value as is the suggestion

5 Horses so I want $6

The prices were 8/1 - 6.5/1 - 30/1 - 16/1 - 50/1

Theoretical Bank $5000 betting to take 4 % of bank on each bet $200

8/1 = $22 - 6.5 /1 = $27 - 30/1 = $6 - 16/1 - 50/1 = $4

I will do this each week and follow up for 3 months.

Hopefully it might be ok betting in this manner.

Remember though that this is only theoretical

Profit $133Not sure about that Darky. You haven't done justice to the fact that there was a $51.00 winner from just 5 selections. You have wagered $71 and got back $204. The staking you suggested assumes the longer priced horses are always poorer value, so always deserve a smaller stake, which I think is wrong.

The successful test of any selections is whether or not they win at level stakes. I level stake with a very small fraction of a notional bank - well under 1% on each selection.

Assuming $20 on the 5 selections, $100 was wagered for a return of $1,020 for a profit of $920 - enough to cover 46 losing bets. Now that is a far better result than you got, wagering $71 for a profit of just $133, and does justice to an outstanding day with a $51.00 winner from just 5 bets.

[darkydog2002]

Hi Mr Logic,

I,ve been through this scenario many, many times and have always found that horses normally run as their prices indicate.
On the rare occasion a 50/1 winner through whatever means wins.

What would have happened if that horse had NOT won and I,d had the same ammount on it as the other 4.

This happens more than the other scenario.

No.Bank Protection should be the Ultimat aim of every punter.

Cheers
darky

[Dale]

Not sure about that Darky. You haven't done justice to the fact that there was a $51.00 winner from just 5 selections. You have wagered $71 and got back $204. The staking you suggested assumes the longer priced horses are always poorer value, so always deserve a smaller stake, which I think is wrong.
.

Agreed!

Totally negates the edge you have found.

[Lord Greystoke]

Hi Mr Logic,

I,ve been through this scenario many, many times and have always found that horses normally run as their prices indicate.
On the rare occasion a 50/1 winner through whatever means wins.

What would have happened if that horse had NOT won and I,d had the same ammount on it as the other 4.

This happens more than the other scenario.

No.Bank Protection should be the Ultimat aim of every punter.

Cheers
darkyWell put, Duke of Orange. How is your next trip to Amster-damn panning out, if I may ask?

LG

[darkydog2002]

Leaving in May for Amsterdam and Belgium.

Cheers

[Lord Greystoke]

Leaving in May for Amsterdam and Belgium.

CheersGood work mate. enjoy.. you beat me to it!

LG

[darkydog2002]

2 Wins from 14 bets $7 and $3.10

Betting to prices Bank now $4886.50

[darkydog2002]

As there were 14 bets listed after scratching I needed a Minimum $15 which left 3 bets
R.W R 4 H 6 @$17 / bet $12 2nd

Doomben R5 H 15 $15 / bet $13 loss

R 8 H 13 @$19/ bet $11 loss

Loss $36

Disregard 30 /11 as I needed Minimum $15.

Bank now $5097