Equal Fav Question

[Puntz]

Sometimes on screen we see 2 or 3 horses's prices either become Equal Favorites or close to being equal. They may jump around a bit one surpassing the other or what not.

Question is, how far apart number wise would be a general rule of thumb where it's EF or just off an EF race ?

For example, if Horse 1 is showing 2.50 and Horse 2 is showing 2.80,
that's 30 cents apart. One can assume they are "Equal Favorites"
At what point can it not be regarded as EF's ?
It can show sometimes to be the 3.80.s and 4.10's

Percentages would be fine to if anyone uses percentages rather than plain numbers.

Thanks

[darkydog2002]

I personally use the Fixed price Fav rather than the SP which can change even in running.

[aussielongboat]

its difficult to answer and is the archilles heal to a lot of post race systems that rely on the favourite being in or out of the selection filter.
i have seen tab odds change after the race has been decided.

sure they say - "just back the favourite from an inside barrier that blah blah..."

(un)fortunately its not that easy in practice.

[Puntz]

Yeap,
I think a short answer is Form, let one' own Form data/methods be a deciding factor rather than a horse being hyped into it.
Or as Darky mentions, the Fixed odds.

My thoughts to aussielongboat, archilles heal.

or, skip the race all together.

[Rinconpaul]

Pigeons I call em. If you research them over a long period, some unique properties are revealed, of the Edge kind. In my system it's <= $0.30.

[Lord Greystoke]

One thing I noticed.. where the Fav looks a bit like a 'floppy fish' and there are 2 pigeons standing next in line, similar result. Haven't got the stats to back it up - just observations here and there. Perhaps somebody else had spotted the dodgy kipper? ;)

LG

[Puntz]

It's been there always LG

For what it's worth, I call them "Jumpin Jacks"

[Lord Greystoke]

It's been there always LG

For what it's worth, I call them "Jumpin Jacks"Fair enough guv. "Jumpin Jacks" it is.. care to share the reason why?

LG

[Puntz]

LG, ever stepped on a 3 corner jack (botanical name: Tribulus terrestris )
bare footed ? ouch !

Well, what if these Tribulus terrestris, ( 3 corner jacks) kept jumping at ya, just like these equal favs. from one price update to another.
Bet on one, it loses, bet on the other, it loses to, bet on both, the third fav. wins.
See ? 3 corner jacks that jump...."jumping jacks"

[Lord Greystoke]

yes I have puntz. ouch!

However - thought your term related to the false fav as opposed to the equal fav. I will stick with floppy fish = false fav then!

Cheers LG

[aussielongboat]

anyone get any constructive comment.
this is all getting a bit puerile

[norisk]

Indeed

[Puntz]

Equal Favorites Vs False/True Favorites

At what point does one draw the line using price variation between the 2 equal favorites ?
Assuming they are both True Favorites
On scale, percents vary depending, so 2.00 and 2.30 may show 30 cents
but if it's 3.00 and 3.30 respectively, it's a different percent value when calculated, yet it's still 0.30 cents.

Debatable ?

[aussielongboat]

My view is that any selection method that uses a favourite or not as a filter is very tricky and difficult to implement in real time.
As you ask above how clear does it have to be to be a favourite etc.

also where is it favourite - SP, BF , best tab, home tab, fixed?
on paper after the event is is easy but in real time mostly difficult.

[Lord Greystoke]

My view is that any selection method that uses a favourite or not as a filter is very tricky and difficult to implement in real time.
As you ask above how clear does it have to be to be a favourite etc.

also where is it favourite - SP, BF , best tab, home tab, fixed?
on paper after the event is is easy but in real time mostly difficult.Disagree. At least a handful of people here making a decent return from watching the first few fav's in the market. If you read the longshot thread for a bit you will see which fav they are using and what market etc

Cheers LG

[aussielongboat]

Disagree. At least a handful of people here making a decent return from watching the first few fav's in the market. If you read the longshot thread for a bit you will see which fav they are using and what market etc

Cheers LG
on paper i'm sure they are.
however as i said " difficult to implement in real time etc"
in any case i like to see live selections before the race with a winning POT for a long time.
but fair enough - its just my view form after studying the wares of system peddlers for many years which often have a rule like " take the 2nd favourite etc etc "

[Lord Greystoke]

on paper i'm sure they are.
however as i said " difficult to implement in real time etc"
in any case i like to see live selections before the race with a winning POT for a long time.
but fair enough - its just my view form after studying the wares of system peddlers for many years which often have a rule like " take the 2nd favourite etc etc "Understood regards system peddlers. RP often posts a thumbnail to the win in BF which bodes well. Given that he does this, I am reasonably confident that the graphical stats he puts up hold weight - why would he do all the yards on the research and share on a thread in a honest - genuine way, then come up with a load of old 'walter mitty' cobblers regards his results.

From my own personal perspective, I like to watch the movements in odds over a top slice of runners - according to field size (rather than the first or second fav). Seems to produce a more consistent return and pick up more winners around the $5-$10 mark.

Just my thoughts.

LG

[Rinconpaul]

on paper i'm sure they are...

Here's some on paper transactions, up $800 for my first hour!!

[SpeedyBen]

anyone get any constructive comment.
this is all getting a bit puerileDoes puerile mean more than one, Mr Boat?

[Puntz]

Does puerile mean more than one, Mr Boat?

No, it means sink all other boats

[aussielongboat]

Here's some on paper transactions, up $800 for my first hour!!

well done - i hope the day finished up well.

[aussielongboat]

Does puerile mean more than one, Mr Boat?

add this to the list of puerile comment
LOL

[SpeedyBen]

add this to the list of puerile comment
LOLDoes it have a latin root, Mr Boat?

[Moderator 3]

We have received a TOU.

Unfortunately this thread has gone off the rails so we are now closing it.