Help finding potential profit/loss

[Pat123]

I was wondering if there was an easy/relatively quick way of finding out what my profit/loss would be if I were to lay a specific horse (no. 5) in every AUS/NZ meet today the 3rd of Jan? Based on the following:

1. $100 lay stakes
2. Lay horse number 5 every single AUS and NZ thoroughbred race available on Betfair today
3. Only lay if horse is between odds 3.00 - 14.00
4. If horse scratched - on to the next race.

I've been looking at one site using their fixed prices but I really want to use Betfair's results however I cannot find the horses numbers...

If it were easy enough, I'd like to find out profit/loss from December laying all eligible AUS/NZ races. Any help would be greatly appreciated!

[Chrome Prince]

Depends on how badly you really want to find out. I mean the work involved.

1. Go to Betfair website and download the csv data files.
2. Combine them to one workbook or import them into a database.
3. Extract the horse number from the selection i.e. 5. Power To Possess
In Excel assume that horse number and name is in cell A1.
=LEFT(A1,SEARCH(". ",A1)-1) Put this formula into cell B1.
This gives you the TAB number.
Then it's just a matter of filtering by TAB number and then by price.
Will take you a fair bit of time, especially if the database isn't set up yet with tables and fields.

[Michal]

You could buy Axis Historical, $395 per year, create a system with one rule; TAB no 5, then run it over the past data and then use the Axis Betting Analyser to analyse your bets (for laying) using actual Betfair prices. You could adjust for the Betfair Commission rate you think you will be on as well. Probably take you all of 5 min to do that. Test using flat stakes or proportional laying. As well as that you could analyse your system against about 115 forms/ratings factors to see where the edge is for any ideas you may have. You also get with your yearly subscription access to yesterdays data files so you can test all your systems, methods and ideas and see how they went each day. Its a great research tool and especially for the purposes of laying. In this case if you had Axis Historical already you would have known the answer in less time then it took you to write that post. :) Is the amount of time you could save worth the $1.08 per day it costs?

[Michal]

Sorry I didn't notice the other rule, yes you can set a price range as another rule for your system and also set your lay stake to $100. or what ever bet size you want.

[demodocus]

1. $100 lay stakes
2. Lay horse number 5 every single AUS and NZ thoroughbred race available on Betfair today
3. Only lay if horse is between odds 3.00 - 14.00
4. If horse scratched - on to the next race.


Here are some longer term stats ..... sample 112,451 horses @ TAB 5. 14,073 of them Won (87.49% Lost) at an average AAP SP $6.43. Nobody knows what the Lay price would be. Make your own assumption and do the maths to calculate your loss :-)

Don't forget that quite frequently you're selecting a horse based on it's name (equal weights allocated TAB's alphabetically).

Betsender or Bf Bot Manager are simple and ideal for this type of task.

[The Ocho]

Be careful if you use BF Bot Manager as it will take into account any scratchings.

i.e. you want TAB no 5 then you lay the fifth runner by position. However if there is a scratching or two then it will bet on the 5th number after scratchings. So if No 1 & No 2 are scratched it will bet on No 7, etc.

[Mark]

Here's a quick way to save money and time. Don't do it, it won't work.

[Chrome Prince]

There is one problem, Betfair prices are copyright to Betfair unless you have a written authority to reproduce and distribute them and pay for that privilige.
Personal use is fine.

[UselessBettor]

There is one problem, Betfair prices are copyright to Betfair unless you have a written authority to reproduce and distribute them and pay for that privilige.
Personal use is fine.
And betfair even cracks down on people collecting the prices without placing bets.

[norisk]

Here's a quick way to save money and time. Don't do it, it won't work.


beat me to it.

[Pat123]

Thanks for the advice.

So you have tried this? Why would you say not to?

[Vortech]

Why Horse 5 as against horse 4 or 6?

[aussielongboat]

Thanks for the advice.

So you have tried this? Why would you say not to?

Forget all the stats and back data - unless you have an edge, in the long term you will get the market loss.
i.e probably around 15% POT.

Just picking number 5 is not an edge.

Much easier to make money arbing from over generous corporate bookmaker fixed prices - you can lay on BF and back on corporate.

LOL

[Pat123]

Why Horse 5 as against horse 4 or 6?

I found it had less wins overall compared to horse 1-4 and 6. By quite a lot, but i've only looked at dec/jan.

[norisk]

I found it had less wins overall compared to horse 1-4 and 6. By quite a lot, but i've only looked at dec/jan.



Wont hold up Pat, it all evens out over time. End of the day, what is a horse number? Just a ranking of one description or another.

[aussielongboat]

I found it had less wins overall compared to horse 1-4 and 6. By quite a lot, but i've only looked at dec/jan.

you are confusing correlation with causation.

[Lord Greystoke]

you are confusing correlation with causation.association v cause and effect ?

LG

[aussielongboat]

association v cause and effect ?

LG

yeah that's it.

Just because 2 things happen together i.e. a few short term winners from #5 for example doesn't mean that you can deduct that #5 saddle cloth = winners.

Many lightweight simplistic analysts tend to jump on these conclusions.

Now there's an example of a causation for ya !

cheers

aussie