Lucky Lil's tips Saturday 24th. November

[Lucky Lil]

Here are my value bets for Saturday:

Sandown
R5 no8 Adolescence

Eagle Farm
R8 no16 Eric

Lays of the Day.
I have used today's Sportsman for prices.
These prepost favourites are no value at the odds.

Sandown
R3 no1 Delirious $3.30

Randwick
R3 no1 Air War $2.50
R5 no2 Trinity College $2.25
R6 no2 Into The Night $2.50

Victoria Park
R5 no2 After Beune $4.00
R6 no1 Lazing About $4.20

Good luck.
Lucky Lil.

[Fatboy]

Your two selections produced one place and a short priced fav at that. The lays produced 2 winners of $3.10 and $8.30. If punters placed level stakes on all your lays they would have made a 280% profit for the day!

[Lucky Lil]

Dear Fatboy
You wrote:

"Your two selections produced one place and a short priced fav at that. The lays produced 2 winners of $3.10 and $8.30. If punters placed level stakes on all your lays they would have made a 280% profit for the day!"

Dear Fatboy,
I pointed out I used Friday's Sportsman for the prices. Eric, the short priced winner was at big double figure odds in the Sportsman.

The lays were also based on the prices in the Sportsman. I am giving you horses that are poor value at those odds. If they happen to be at much better prices on raceday well it's a whole new ballgame.

Lazing About at $8.00 was value. It was not long term value at $4.00.

Also, if you look at my previous "lays" in the Forum, which I suspect you have not done, the lays have been very successful - backing the short priced favourites I have knocked would have shown a substantial loss.

To be successful punters have to look further than what happens over a few selections. Profit/loss percentages on turnover are also of no meaningful statistical use from a couple of selections.

Fatboy I am sure the readers of this Forum would like to see your selections each week.

Good luck,
Lucky Lil




<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Lucky Lil on 2001-11-25 11:35 ]</font>

[Fatboy]

Dear Lil
I always thought that either the horse wins or it don't, if it wins at whatever price it's still a winner. A lay to me is a false favourite for whatever reason and should be not considered regardless of price!

Everyone has the right to publish their fun tips for race day and no one should be held accountable for the win or loss, however you have been advertised as a past successful long shot selector, you are also employed by Pro Pun so obviously forum readers may be expecting a little more than they can find in their local newspaper, especially when some of them may be placing their hard earned on your predictions and losing!

Martin Freidman seems to pick a lot of big priced longshots and on a regular basis, I guess I was expecting more or the same from the legendary Lil! My opinion for professionals is that if you can't pick em, then don't post em ( without a disclaimer )

[Lucky Lil]

Dear Fatboy,
I quote you:

"I always thought that either the horse wins or it don't, if it wins at whatever price it's still a winner. A lay to me is a false favourite for whatever reason and should be not considered regardless of price!"

I am giving horses that are poor value at the prices given. Every horse has winning chances in a race, even if it is one in a thousand.

I stand by what I wrote - Lazing About was poor value at $4.00. At $8.00 it was a different story. At $8.00 Lazing About was also no longer a false favourite - it was not the favourite and was maybe worth considering as a bet!!

Betting on horses is all about getting value - not trying to pick the winner and then backing it irrespective of odds. That is how bookies clean up and punters get wiped out. I am sure the professionals who visit this site would agree with me.

I quote you again:
"Martin Freidman seems to pick a lot of big priced longshots and on a regular basis, I guess I was expecting more or the same from the legendary Lil!"

It is tremendous having Martin Freidman posting here.

I am only giving a couple of roughies on a day. It is not possible to have huge strike rates with horses at double figure odds. A losing run of 10 or more longshots is no different to a losing run of one or two with short priced favourites. One win and you are back in front.

I again quote you:
"My opinion for professionals is that if you can't pick em, then don't post em ( without a disclaimer )"

There is a disclaimer in the Forum Terms of Use which applies to all tips on the forum.

We promote responsible gambling and no person should bet with money that person cannot afford to lose, with money that if lost would affect that person's lifestyle.

Good luck,
Lucky Lil