Barrier Trials?

[Chrome Prince]

Took a look at last start barrier trial winners:
17.19% Win Strike Rate.
12.44% Loss On Turnover.

If they start favourite:
37.72% Win Strike Rate
9.07% Loss On Turnover

Food for thought.

[SpeedyBen]

So, lay last start trial winners if they are not favourite.

[jazzy]

Excluding 1st starters or not?
How do you handle more than one last start barrier trial winner in a race?

[Rinconpaul]

So, lay last start trial winners if they are not favourite.

Well Speedy there's a selection coming up at Armidale R5, 'War Flower' won it's trial on the 4/3/2014. At the moment 5th Fav so good to Lay??

[Rinconpaul]

Nice one, 10% return for the Lay. Thanks CP & Speedy.

[darkydog2002]

Barrier Trials?

Not worth 2 bob (Catch weights)

[Rinconpaul]

Barrier Trials?

Not worth 2 bob (Catch weights)

You obviously didn't Back Believe Yourself at Randwick last Saturday? Recent trial winner, paid $11.

In fairness, of the 5 trial winners going round at Randwick that day, none were favourites. Result: One winner, one 2nd Place and three losers.

[Chrome Prince]

Trials need to be assessed just like form, I was pointing out that perhaps too much emphasis is placed on them in betting. The high strike rate of favourites is not reflected in profit, thereby, there just might be some lay meat left on the bone.
The real profit comes from those trial winners with very good trial times, that may be overlooked by the crowd.
There are many examples of good odds winners this start that were trial winners in good time.