Betting Outsiders

[michaelg]

I have been considering a system for betting outsiders for $5 on Betfair because of their usually higher divvies on S.P. than on the TABS.

For example, on Saturday the winner at Flemington R8 paid $55 on the TAB whilst $140 on S.P. Betfair, Eagle Farm R8 paid $111 whilst $210 on Betfair, Morphetville R6 $61 compared $240. There have been more instances quite frequently, even yesterday there were $45, $60, $90, $40 winners. Over the last seven days the system would have shown a profit on six days, and over the past three days it would have provided a profit of about $1,500.

For convenience I will show the selections NOT to bet, so all other horses in the race to be bet $5 S.P. on Betfair.

Ararat
1/4,5,9
2/9
3/12
4/7,11,12
5/3,4
6/2,4,5,10,11,12,15
7/1,3
8/1,2,3,4

Armidale
1/3,8
2/1,3,10,11
3/3,6,7,8,10,11
5/2,4
6/2,3,4,5,6,8,9
7/2,3,5,6

By my reckoning there are 101 selections today which is an outlay of $505 which I shall bet. I know the outlay is huge (over $5000 over the past 3 days) but I'm hoping and somewhat confident.

[michaelg]

I've slightly changed the selection process which I hope to be more convenient and accurate, and I shall list them - these are the selections which I shall bet for $5 on Betfair S.P.

Ararat
1/2,6,7,8,10
2/1,4,5,6,11
3/1,3,4,5,7,8,10,11
4/1,2,3,4,5,8,9,10,14
5/7,9,10
6/1,3,6,8,10,12,15
7/5,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14
8/5,7,8,9,10,11,12,13

Armidale
1/1,4,5,9,10,12,13
2/2,4,5,6,7,8
3/1,4,7,8
5/5,6,8,9,10
6/2,7,8,9,10,11,12
7/5,7,8,910

88 selections for an outlay of $440.

[michaelg]

A disaster today - from the 14 races there were only three that showed a profit giving an overall loss of $210. I'll give it another go tomorrow.

[dcpg]

As everyone knows, I love longshots - and on Saturday there were lots of them, one paid $111! But on the longshots thread, we proved that its difficult to win consistently on them. However, good luck on this method - I like betting on horses, not laying them...

[michaelg]

Yes it was a terrible day losing about $200 in spite of impressive results during the test period. I'm giving it another go today again today.

As a a matter of interest I also looked at the Greyhounds last night and I on-paper applied a similar method to the horses. Testing was a happy eye-opener so I immediately began to bet with real money. There were 34 races which produced a profit in twelve of them for an overall profit of $80. There were also good Quinelllas and Trifectas. If I have time I will list today's selections on the appropriate section. The Betfair divvies can also be very high in Dog racing.

[Tipsy]

The Betfair divvies can also be very high in Dog racing.

Q. If u put $100 on what would that do to the price?

[Chrome Prince]

Just a suggestion michaelg, it's probably best to combine a longshots method with another successful method to pad out the very bad runs that you have to endure.

[michaelg]

Tipsy, I've had a couple of bets where I've layed a selection for $10,00 S.P. on Betfair and I don't believe it affected the price of either, so I'm hoping (not confidentally though)that betting also won't affect the S.P. price.

Chrome, there's a lot of action so I'll give it a go as is for now.

Today's selections:

Grafton
5/3,5,6,8,9,10,11,12
6/1,3,5,6,7,9,11,12,13,14
7/2,3,5,7,9,12,13,14,16,17,18
8/1,2,3,6,7,8,11,12,13
9/3,4,5,6,8,10,11,12,13

Kilmore
3/2,3,9,11
4/2,6,7,11
6/5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12
7/4,6,9
8/1,3,4,5,11,14,16

Mackay
7/4,5,6,8,9,10