Testing an Outsider Lay Place System

[michaelg]

This is Lay only for the Place because the profit per race is generally much greater than the profit when laying for the Win. The selections are:

Wyong
5/7
6/10
7/5
8/13

W'bool
1/7
4/7
5/11
6/7
7/12
8/19

Rocky
2/6
3/8
6/10
7/4

Wagga
2/16
3/2
5/5
6/15
8/16

Bunbury
1/5
2/10
5/14
6/9
7/13

[michaelg]

There were 20 smiles from the the 21 selections for a profit of $93.49. I also layed them not to win their individual races for a profit of $32.11. A good day.

[michaelg]

Today's Lay selections are:

Wagga
2/11
3/14
4/17
5/13
6/14
7/10
8/22

Bendigo
2/5
3/11
5/18
6/16
7/18
8/19

Sun Coast
1/13
2/16
3/10
4/13
5/17
6/13
7/15
8/17

M'brook
1/8
2/10
5/8
6/10
7/3


I'll be laying them to both Win and Place.

[michaelg]

Amendment - because no 13 Sun Coast R1 has been scratched it has been replaced by No.10.

[michaelg]

A bad day. Laying for a Win lost $19.85 and for the Place lost $18.08.

[michaelg]

Today's selections:

Hawkesbury
1/6
3/4
4/16
5/12
6/10
7/15
8/11

Caulfield
2/7
3/13
4/7
5/13
6/7
7/5
8/13

Ipswich
2/17
3/8
4/10
5/7
6/13
8/16

Morphetville
1/12
2/8
4/9
5/14
6/6
7/10
8/14
9/16

Newcastle
1/7
2/9
4/11
5/10
6/7
8/1

Gold Coast
1/6
2/21
3/6
4/9
5/19
7/7
8/8

Ballina
1/7
2/11
3/1
4/7
5/18
6/3

Belmont
2/7
3/6
4/4
5/10
6/9
7/5
8/13

Toowoomba
1/10
2/10
3/10
4/11
5/7
6/4
7/9

Lots of action - so it's probable today will wither make or break the method.

[michaelg]

I've now obtained the selections for Ballina. They are ;

3/9
4/13
5/12
6/2
7/11
8/3

[michaelg]

Unfortunately yesterday did beak the system. There were only 2 accidents from the 64 selections but it resulted in a loss because the 62 smiles were very low. And there were 13 accidents for the Place system. One of the divvies on Unitab paid $24.60 and another $15.60.

Today I'm starting a new method which I will show on another thread - it will be a Back for a Place method on Betfair ($5.00). The selections will be those that I would have layed for a Place, so it's a reverse situation. Yesterday there would have been 13 successes from the 64 selections. On Unitab the profit would have been about 90% so I expect the profit would have been even higher on Betfair.

It would be expected to have a very low strike rate but hopefully very high payments. I expect to give the method a few days before I possibly think about reverting back to laying.