The Benefit of odds movement.

[Chrome Prince]

Thought I might put together a small article on the hidden gems of odds movement and how it relates to value.

next post....

[UselessBettor]

I am eagerly waiting for it.

I think you and I use very similar mindsets and strategies.

[Chrome Prince]

ugh, I just penned an hour long page and lost it by hitting the wrong button, oh the joys of progress :(

Well I won't go through the whole thing again, suffice to say in a nutshell....

Lay early for a fixed liability, wait for the team or player to drift or firm in the market and then back it just before the event.
You will look red on one side and green on the other.
The advantage is in the drift.
Over time, these drifts get out of hand as the market jumps all over the firming selection.

I got the data for soccer and took the odds at a certain time before kickoff, then did the trades just before the game. The longterm result was a massive profit.
Did the same on AFL, NRL, Tennis and Cricket.

Same method, same result.

I'd strongly suggest getting the data and running the simulations, it's mind blowing!

* I've been using this method on horseracing for the past two years successfully, however, australian markets have no liquidity early which sent me looking at sports in addition to UK markets.

[evajb001]

CP this may be a stupid question but what about if the side you lay is the side that shortens?

[Rinconpaul]

This might sound like a dumb question CP, as I've got no experience with trading, but:
Don't you Lay low, Back high? It's just you say wait for it to drift or firm. If it firms, isn't that bad?

You use the term 'get the data', is that a feed into special trading software?

Maybe you can recommend a tutorial?

I need to start looking for new pursuits as I don't fancy being a Backer in the oncoming regime.
Cheers

[Chrome Prince]

CP this may be a stupid question but what about if the side you lay is the side that shortens?

No question is ever stupid, there are only stupid answers.

You still back it back and lock in the loss.
The number of times the market gets it wrong, compensates more than enough for those losses. Think of it as a strategy rather than this particular transaction.

We are backing and laying the movement not the actual team or the odds.

[Chrome Prince]

This might sound like a dumb question CP, as I've got no experience with trading, but:
Don't you Lay low, Back high? It's just you say wait for it to drift or firm. If it firms, isn't that bad?

You use the term 'get the data', is that a feed into special trading software?

Maybe you can recommend a tutorial?

I need to start looking for new pursuits as I don't fancy being a Backer in the oncoming regime.
Cheers

Get the historical data from betfair it's timestamped for sports, but gives first taken /last taken times for each odds increment.

Just pick a time before the event note the odds and then look at the last traded price before the event went inplay.

You get a pretty clear picture of movement and why it's profitable.

[UselessBettor]

Basically what CP is saying is


At X mins to the start of a match or race you would try to lay a horse/team at the lower odds. ie if it shows $4.00 - $4.40 you try and lay at $4.00.

At 0mins to start you just trade out your position regardless of if the horse has increased to $5.00 or dropped to $2.00.

there are enough times where you get the movement go your way to disregard the times it doesn't.

[UselessBettor]

The other thing I would suggest looking at it backing the teams/horses which firmed as you have a solid indication this is a good selciton that could win. ie trade out your loss and then throw a little bit extra on it in case it dos win which it usually will.

Keep in mind on AUS racing you are faced with the turnover tax. So stick to o/s racing and sports.

[Rinconpaul]

Cheers CP. I have read books on the subject, mostly USA, and even opened a myriad of betting accounts with offshore bookies a couple of years ago. BUT the more I researched the subject, I came away with the opinion that the smarties have it all sewn up on the odds and you'd be lucky to break even.

Fast forward to today, and you could say the same thing about AUS horse punting, but after a year of 12 hours a day research, loss and learning from my mistakes, I finally can make a consistent profit. So I'll just have to start on a new pathway.

Thanks for starting the thread.

[Chrome Prince]

You definitely want to get in early, rather than laying x mins to go, lay when the market is formed enough, usually a day prior, so you get the benefit of odds movement.

Consider two teams, no draw.

Team A is $1.32
Team B is $4.20

Lay them for stake $10 each

Odds sometime later...
Team A $1.27
Team B $4.60

Back them for stake $10 each

You are left with
Team A -.50c if it wins
Team B +$4.00 if it wins

You can see the odds advantage here.
Essentually you've layed team A at odds of $1.125 or backed team B at odds of $9.00

If you get my drift, regardless of this particular outcome, long term you're getting overs both ways.

*AFL Collingwood v Carlton was used in this example.

[evajb001]

Thanks for the clarification CP, anything that can be used 24/7 interests me. Once i get my bankroll back up and running i'll have to look into it.

aaaah ok i think i see. so your laying both and then backing both outcomes just before the event and the price movements generally either way generally delivers a profit?

[Chrome Prince]

Yes, I came up with this because of the declining Aus racing liquidity early, and with daylight saving the UK racing scene was taking too much out of me. (always staying up longer than intended) and then being no good the next day.
There's enough sports going off around the world at different times to warrant picking and choosing.

Just be extremely careful of result driven markets.
In other words, performance in another event affects the odds in this event.
Like final 8 or premiers etc.

[UselessBettor]

So lets do some real life examples:

AFL:

GWS vs Port Adelaide
Lay at $12.50
Lay at $1.08

Adelaide vs Melbourne
Lay at $1.10
Lay at $10.50

Brisbane vs Sydney
Lay at $4.50
Lay at $1.25

Carlton vs Collingwood
Lay at $6.00
Lay at $1.19

Essedon vs Bulldogs
Lay at $1.34
Lay at $3.75

That should do for a quick test.

[Chrome Prince]

Only Carlton V Collingwood is in play at the moment.
I posted the two odds before the game went inplay.

[UselessBettor]

Only Carlton V Collingwood is in play at the moment.
I posted the two odds before the game went inplay.
sorry yep I just went down the list and grabbed a few out. Exclude that one.

[Chrome Prince]

Lose .50c on the Collingwood result.

Will update trade prices from UB's list.

[The Ocho]

You definitely want to get in early, rather than laying x mins to go, lay when the market is formed enough, usually a day prior, so you get the benefit of odds movement.

Consider two teams, no draw.

Team A is $1.32
Team B is $4.20

Lay them for stake $10 each

Odds sometime later...
Team A $1.27
Team B $4.60

Back them for stake $10 each

You are left with
Team A -.50c if it wins
Team B +$4.00 if it wins

You can see the odds advantage here.
Essentually you've layed team A at odds of $1.125 or backed team B at odds of $9.00

If you get my drift, regardless of this particular outcome, long term you're getting overs both ways.

*AFL Collingwood v Carlton was used in this example.
Hi CP, thanks for this but I'm probably missing something. Wouldn't the fave team win more often and wouldn't they normally firm therefore losing more often?

Are you talking about two team bets with no draws or do you also do this with drawers in soccer?

And what type of player markets are you talking about?

Sorry for the questions but it seems counter-intuitive (I didn't think I'd use that word this year).

[The Ocho]

One more question - do you take the lay bet available there and then or do you place an unmatched lay bet a few ticks away like UB said?

[Chrome Prince]

Hi CP, thanks for this but I'm probably missing something. Wouldn't the fave team win more often and wouldn't they normally firm therefore losing more often?

Are you talking about two team bets with no draws or do you also do this with drawers in soccer?

And what type of player markets are you talking about?

Sorry for the questions but it seems counter-intuitive (I didn't think I'd use that word this year).

The fave team will win more often especially at those sub $1.30 odds.
But I lose .50c or win $4.00 based on the previous example.
Sometimes the favourite team does drift and the outsider firms.
I do this for soccer comprising a draw, tennis, NRL and sometimes cricket.
I only do Match Odds not sub markets, purely for liquidity purposes.

I can only urge you to either follow it here for a while or grab Betfair's sports data, to see the advantage.

Essentially I backed Team B Carlton @ $9.00 using this method, when the last traded price before the game was roughly $4.60.

Assuming that Betfair markets are accurate (prior to commission deductions) one has to make a profit.
Or I layed Team A @ $1.125 when the last price was close to $1.27.

Therein lies the edge, regardless of the frequency of odds on favourites getting up.

[Chrome Prince]

One more question - do you take the lay bet available there and then or do you place an unmatched lay bet a few ticks away like UB said?

Soccer is great because I take the available lay price and then take the same stake on SP back.
Other sports don't have SP just yet, which makes for a problem when working lots of markets. I have a spreadsheet which I input the start time and make sure it's covered just prior to the start. I never let my bets go inplay and never set bets up a few ticks away.

Sometimes you miss out on a massive drift.

One drift was $2.60 right out to $4.20 and I missed out on that rare beauty.

I make sure my events are going to start the times I can be around at my computer or sometimes will just take the odds before I go to bed if the trade went on a day or more ago and it's two hours until the event etc.

[Chrome Prince]

Oh, another thing they must all be big matches, I never go for obscure soccer matches. There's got to be money either side, and a minimum market matched total.

Stick with AFL, NRL, English Premier League Soccer, big cricket matches, Open mens and womens tennis etc.
I don't do golf, darts or Formula 1.
Too many players, contestants.
I want a maximum of three possible outcomes.

[The Ocho]

Thanks CP. I will follow with interest.

[UselessBettor]

Brisbane vs Sydney
Lay at $4.50
Lay at $1.25
This could now be backed at :

Back at $4.70
Back at $1.26

[Chrome Prince]

Now $1.25 and $4.90

Will be waiting until later.

[Chrome Prince]

Make it easier to list like this...

Carry Forward -.50c

GWS vs Port Adelaide 2.10pm
Lay at $12.50
Lay at $1.08

Adelaide vs Melbourne 4.40pm
Lay at $1.10
Lay at $10.50

Brisbane vs Sydney 7.40pm
Lay at $4.50
Lay at $1.25

Essedon vs Bulldogs 7.40pm
Lay at $1.34
Lay at $3.75

Note that at these short prices it will have to go more than one day unless of course there's a nice upset. Not uncommon to have either a weekend of clean sweeps or a weekend of a few upsets.

[beton]

Get the historical data from betfair it's timestamped for sports, but gives first taken /last taken times for each odds increment.


CP Where in BF do you get this data? I have looked but only found the nags and dogs

[Chrome Prince]

http://data.betfair.com/
Scroll down to other data.

You need to clean the files.
All in play is listed in there as well, including keep bets.
The way I do it is to make another field which flags greater than event start time and eliminate all flagged data.
I also eliminate obscure sports etc as the files are massive.

You cannot open them in Excel, you need to import them into Access or another type of database because there are millions of rows.

It really is silly that Betfair don't list keep bets matched (PE) in play as in play (IP), it would make life so much easier :(

[beton]

CP Thanks
That will be a project over the next two months

[Chrome Prince]

Carry Forward -.50c

GWS vs Port Adelaide 2.10pm
Lay at $12.50 Back at $10.00
Lay at $1.08 Back at $1.11

Adelaide vs Melbourne 4.40pm
Lay at $1.10
Lay at $10.50

Brisbane vs Sydney 7.40pm
Lay at $4.50
Lay at $1.25

Essedon vs Bulldogs 7.40pm
Lay at $1.34
Lay at $3.75

[Chrome Prince]

Carry Forward -.50c

GWS vs Port Adelaide 2.10pm
Lay at $12.50 Back at $10.00
Lay at $1.08 Back at $1.11

Adelaide vs Melbourne 4.40pm
Lay at $1.10 Back at $1.09
Lay at $10.50 Back at $11.50

Brisbane vs Sydney 7.40pm
Lay at $4.50
Lay at $1.25

Essedon vs Bulldogs 7.40pm
Lay at $1.34
Lay at $3.75

[UselessBettor]

CP,

Just an observation, but from my dart board random assessment of a few of these across multiple sports, it appears in 90% of cases the favourite firms (or stays the same) and the long shot drifts.

What is your feel for this ?

[Chrome Prince]

Carry Forward -.50c

GWS vs Port Adelaide 2.10pm
Lay at $12.50 Back at $10.00
Lay at $1.08 Back at $1.11 WON +.30c

Adelaide vs Melbourne 4.40pm
Lay at $1.10 Back at $1.09
Lay at $10.50 Back at $11.50 WON +$10 Get in!

Brisbane vs Sydney 7.40pm
Lay at $4.50
Lay at $1.25

Essedon vs Bulldogs 7.40pm
Lay at $1.34
Lay at $3.75

[Chrome Prince]

CP,

Just an observation, but from my dart board random assessment of a few of these across multiple sports, it appears in 90% of cases the favourite firms (or stays the same) and the long shot drifts.

What is your feel for this ?

It's fairly even when you look at the amounts.
Often it will stay the same or firm a little, but when it drifts it compensates more.
So you end up a little better off laying first then backing.
But you are right by strike rate.

[Chrome Prince]

Carry Forward -0.50c

GWS vs Port Adelaide 2.10pm
Lay at $12.50 Back at $10.00
Lay at $1.08 Back at $1.11 WON +.30c

Adelaide vs Melbourne 4.40pm
Lay at $1.10 Back at $1.09
Lay at $10.50 Back at $11.50 WON +$10 Get in!

Brisbane vs Sydney 7.40pm
Brisbane Lay at $4.50 Back at $6.00
Sydney Lay at $1.25 Back at $1.19

Essendon vs Bulldogs 7.40pm
Essendon Lay at $1.34 Back at $1.32
Bulldogs Lay at $3.75 Back at $4.00

[UselessBettor]

Carry Forward -0.50c

GWS vs Port Adelaide 2.10pm
Lay at $12.50 Back at $10.00
Lay at $1.08 Back at $1.11 WON +.30c

Adelaide vs Melbourne 4.40pm
Lay at $1.10 Back at $1.09
Lay at $10.50 Back at $11.50 WON +$10 Get in!

I'm trying to work out the profit on these. So this might help others understand it.

GWS vs Port Adelaide.
Lay at $12.50 Back at $10.00 = Back and Lay cancel each other out.
Lay at $1.08 Back at $1.11 WON +.30c = (10*(1.11-1.08)) = 0.30

Adelaide vs Melbourne 4.40pm
Lay at $1.10 Back at $1.09 = Back and Lay cancel each other out.
Lay at $10.50 Back at $11.50 WON +$10 = (10*(11.50-10.50)) = 10

Thanks for posting the prices.

[Sands]

I'm trying to work out the profit on these. So this might help others understand it.

Yep, thanks

[Rinconpaul]

Thanks to you two 'tag team champions'. Starting to get it now.

[Chrome Prince]

Yes, sorry I haven't given full calculations, I do this day in and day out so I forget that it does need a bit of explanation. Once you get the calculations, it just becomes automatic mental arithmetic.

Basically you don't need to work out any calculations for the losing side, only the winning side. It's just (back odds - lay odds) * stake (less commission)

[UselessBettor]

For those who not use to betfair. The reason you don't have to worry about the losing side is because you layed it for $10. So you get back $10 because the team lost. You have also backed it for $10 to win so your winning on the $10 lay just pays back your losing of $10 on the back.

Its all simple when you understand it.

[Chrome Prince]

Carry Forward -0.50c

GWS vs Port Adelaide 2.10pm
Lay at $12.50 Back at $10.00
Lay at $1.08 Back at $1.11 WON +.30c

Adelaide vs Melbourne 4.40pm
Lay at $1.10 Back at $1.09
Lay at $10.50 Back at $11.50 WON +$10 Get in!

Brisbane vs Sydney 7.40pm
Brisbane Lay at $4.50 Back at $6.00
Sydney Lay at $1.25 Back at $1.19 WON -$0.60c

Essendon vs Bulldogs 7.40pm
Essendon Lay at $1.34 Back at $1.32 WON -$0.20c
Bulldogs Lay at $3.75 Back at $4.00

Overall +$9.00 profit for $10 example stakes.

[Chrome Prince]

Overall +$9.00 profit for $10 example stakes.
Forgot to add that the maximum liability to get that $9.00 profit was $25.00.

[Chrome Prince]

Gold Coast vs Western Bulldogs 3:20pm
Gold Coast Lay at $1.28
Western Bulldogs Lay at $4.80

Carlton vs Adelaide 4.40pm
Carlton Lay at $2.36
Adelaide Lay at $1.74

[stugots]

Being fairly ignorant about sports betting I have a question about draws - doesn't a draw result in all back & lay bets losing? so in these examples would mean a $40 loss?

On reflection I assume the lay bet must win, or else there is no way this method could be used on soccer.

[Mark]

So lets do some real life examples:

AFL:

GWS vs Port Adelaide
Lay at $12.50
Lay at $1.08

Adelaide vs Melbourne
Lay at $1.10
Lay at $10.50

Brisbane vs Sydney
Lay at $4.50
Lay at $1.25

Carlton vs Collingwood
Lay at $6.00
Lay at $1.19

Essedon vs Bulldogs
Lay at $1.34
Lay at $3.75

That should do for a quick test.

Nice examples, every market is greater than 100%. Lay to payout the same for as much as the market can stand. No need to do anything else.

[Mark]

Being fairly ignorant about sports betting I have a question about draws - doesn't a draw result in all back & lay bets losing? so in these examples would mean a $40 loss?

On reflection I assume the lay bet must win, or else there is no way this method could be used on soccer.

Back bets would lose, but lays would get the lot.

[Chrome Prince]

Being fairly ignorant about sports betting I have a question about draws - doesn't a draw result in all back & lay bets losing? so in these examples would mean a $40 loss?

On reflection I assume the lay bet must win, or else there is no way this method could be used on soccer.

In markets where there is a draw selection offered, you do the same procedure as above on that selection as well.
If a draw occurs on a sporting event where there is no Draw selection
offered, then...

Dead heats

Unless stated otherwise in the Specific Sports Rules the Dead Heat Rule applies to bets on a market where there are more winners than expected.
Dead heat is a term that describes when two or more selections in an event tie. If a “dead-heat” between two selections is declared on any event, half the stake is applied to the selection at full odds and the other half is lost. If more than two “dead-heats” are declared, the stake is proportioned accordingly.

[Mark]

CP, I understand what you are doing but laying both at less than 100% and backing both at more than 100% can't be a good strategy, can it?

Take that back as I've just run the numbers on a hypothetical.
Lay 1.28 Back 1.20 Loses .80
Lay 4.80 Back 5.60 Wins 8.00
The equivalent of 10.00 on a 5.60 chance.

ps, still running the UK thing that you showed me?

[Chrome Prince]

Here's something for those that get banned, you'll need a massive bank, but won't get banned. They'll think you're a complete mug.

I found some Euro bookies that offer odds up to 1501 and a few more that offer 5001 on Formula 1. Given Betfair's maximum is 1000, and you green up, it's risk free profit.

But is it practical to expose that much capital?

[Chrome Prince]

CP, I understand what you are doing but laying both at less than 100% and backing both at more than 100% can't be a good strategy, can it?

Take that back as I've just run the numbers on a hypothetical.
Lay 1.28 Back 1.20 Loses .80
Lay 4.80 Back 5.60 Wins 8.00
The equivalent of 10.00 on a 5.60 chance.

ps, still running the UK thing that you showed me?

No liquidity dropped and that was the problem we were facing and why you started to get different outcomes. Switched to sports, a lot more manual work and time involved, but money always there.

As for the above example: if you risk say $8.00 to win $80, that's odds of $11.00 not $5.60. and there's your edge.

[stugots]

In markets where there is a draw selection offered, you do the same procedure as above on that selection as well.
If a draw occurs on a sporting event where there is no Draw selection
offered, then...

Dead heats

Unless stated otherwise in the Specific Sports Rules the Dead Heat Rule applies to bets on a market where there are more winners than expected.
Dead heat is a term that describes when two or more selections in an event tie. If a “dead-heat” between two selections is declared on any event, half the stake is applied to the selection at full odds and the other half is lost. If more than two “dead-heats” are declared, the stake is proportioned accordingly.


Thanks.

I see alot of early World Cup round 1 soccer matches are available, so taking the Australia/Chile game as an example (99% market), I would lay now at avail prices

Chile $1.56
Aust $8.20
Draw $4.50

& say I could back on game day at 99% again

Chile $1.40
Aust $10.00
Draw $5.60

results excluding comm

Chile win $10*(1.40-1.56) -$1.60
Aust win $10*(10.00-8.20) +$19.80
Draw win $10*(5.60-4.50) +$13.20

Am I on the right track?

[Chrome Prince]

Exactly, and look at the effective odds you've got to liability!
Of course there will be lots of small losses, but when an outsider wins it's cash in the bank way over the odds. Plus there are times when the favourite drifts and wins at short prices. Not every transaction will be an overlay, I have got under the effective odds a few times, and the same effective odds also, but the overlays achieved outweigh any losses.

The downside is the amount of manual work involved, scanning sports, putting your lays on, THEN making sure all backs are put on right before the match.
The good side is that id you make a boo boo, and you will, and miss out on putting the back part on for whatever reason, you only lose less than 1% anyway.

I now have my spreadsheet and transfer the pre event time to my outlook calendar. I then, sync my Iphone and get a reminder. So I can trade out on the mobile site if not at home.

EPL soccer is brilliant because the have SP. I have also asked about having sport SP in the Betfair Q&A on the 27th.

[Mark]

Take that back as I've just run the numbers on a hypothetical.
Lay 1.28 Back 1.20 Loses .80
Lay 4.80 Back 5.60 Wins 8.00


Now to take this a step further.
Instead of having 10 back on the bolter you only have 9 leaving this result.
+.20 or +3.40

[Chrome Prince]

That would be utopia, but you don't know for sure if it will firm and be left exposed greater on the outsider if it firms. Quite a few have.

[stugots]

Cheers CP

Much like tennis for most of the year, the amount of bet-able soccer matches during any given week is well frankly, insane. So yes, I can see there would be a fair amount of work keeping on top of it all.

Speaking of tennis, it would also appear a perfect sport for this strategy with lots of well supported minor tournaments throughout the year.

[Mark]

I know you would have done your research so how often does the bolter firm?, because this could cause some nasty looking books and results if they win.

[Mark]

Could this be applied to racing? the drifters being your winners.

[stugots]

Could this be applied to racing? the drifters being your winners.


Isnt this basically trading so would attract the turnover charge on many racing markets.

[Chrome Prince]

I know you would have done your research so how often does the bolter firm?, because this could cause some nasty looking books and results if they win.

Not that often, and they win even less often, so overall yes you will get a bad beat, but the odds you're getting on overlays compensate. but yes you will get some bad results now and then. Overall it is a very good winning strategy including those occasional hiccups.

[Chrome Prince]

Could this be applied to racing? the drifters being your winners.

that's what we were doing automated months ago, but liquidity is too thin and there are too many options to lose. In sports there are only two or three options (the draw) so you stand a better chance.
Racing is where this evolved for me, and I then found sports was far better in all ways, far more work, as it's all manual and very difficult to find all the correct events and back back just before each event starts.
I stick to majors leagues in rugby, soccer, tennis, AFL, Basketball, Baseball, gridiron.
As a rule I never touch minor leagues, darts, badminton, politics, golf.
There's more than enough work in the majors.

[Rinconpaul]

Cheers CP

Speaking of tennis, it would also appear a perfect sport for this strategy with lots of well supported minor tournaments throughout the year.


Just be aware that there is a risk when betting on single players v team's of players. In a team, if one of the players gets a bad knock, they can replace him, not so in tennis. Be aware of rules in regard retirement due to injury. Some bookmakers refund your money, others like Ladbrokes don't.

[Chrome Prince]

RP, I would only apply this to singles tennis Open mens and womens matches.
And it's all done on Betfair.
All bets are on or off if retirement, so same same.

[stugots]

Tennis
If a player or pairing retires or is disqualified in any match, the player or pairing progressing to the next round (or winning the tournament in the case of a final) will be deemed the winner. However if less than one set has been completed at the time of the retirement or disqualification then all bets relating to that individual match will be void.

http://www.betfair.com/en/aboutUs/Rules.and.Regulations/

[Pat123]

Maybe this might be a big factor why my back bets when arbing seem to win overall.

[Chrome Prince]

Gold Coast vs Western Bulldogs 3:20pm
Gold Coast Lay at $1.28 Back at $1.22 Potential loss $6.00
Western Bulldogs Lay at $4.80 Back at $5.30 Potential profit $5.00

That's not a good leverage in this case. :(

[Chrome Prince]

I did notice however, someone is backing the shorties to the tune of 25k and laying in play for the same. Odds were $1.28 back, $1.22 lay.
I'll tell you that's a mammoth risk based on some of the shorties going down convincingly this season. He's not going to get even a quarter of that matched before the bounce.

[Chrome Prince]

Lucky, he got matched this time straight away after the the bounce and only because two goals were kicked in fairly quick time, otherwise he'd be hanging on the edge.

[Chrome Prince]

Carlton vs Adelaide 4.40pm
Carlton Lay at $2.36 Back at $2.48 potential profit $1.20
Adelaide Lay at $1.74 Back at $1.67 potential loss 0.70c

These are just examples and odds didn't move greatly as I only went in late last night. Getting in early but still with decent liquidity is the key.

[Chrome Prince]

-$4.80 this time
+$4.20 for the thread.

[stugots]

Had a go on most of the 1st round French Open games last night - layed around 8 hours prior & backed 15 mins before the start for a small overall loss.

What surprised me was how little the odds had changed despite relatively large increases in amounts matched.

[Chrome Prince]

I would be getting in earlier and out later.
Also early rounds don't move that much as opinion is and interest isn't at a peak.
But keep going you will find a lot of matches with bigger movement and you will get that loss back.

[stugots]

The loss was not an issue as I looked at as a way to gauge how it works with little risk (not a big believer in paper trials), & I plan to keep at it for a while.

[DR RON]

Hey Chrome, would the same principal be able to be applied to say the first 2 favourites, that is lay them early then back late? with the assumption that if 1 firms the other will probably drift at the same time. Also I have downloade some betfair data to excel to do some research and was wondering if you could explain the easiest way for me to eliminate or hide the harness races as well as the place markets for the gallops and perhaps the inplay prices as well as this would make my research a lot less time consuming having to scroll through data that I dont really need.
Thanks Chrome.

[Chrome Prince]

Hey Chrome, would the same principal be able to be applied to say the first 2 favourites, that is lay them early then back late? with the assumption that if 1 firms the other will probably drift at the same time. Also I have downloade some betfair data to excel to do some research and was wondering if you could explain the easiest way for me to eliminate or hide the harness races as well as the place markets for the gallops and perhaps the inplay prices as well as this would make my research a lot less time consuming having to scroll through data that I dont really need.
Thanks Chrome.

Hi Dr, yes it could IF there is early liquidity.
Be very wary of Betfair data, there are numerous errors in both the SP and other data, such as non runners included, prices recorded as $1.00 when in fact it was $5.00 etc etc. I use a crosschecking system, but I'm sure I've missed one or two errors. If you're talking about the general data and not the SP data, then, you can filter it out in excel using the autofilter facility.
To eliminate harness for example, you search for contains Trot or Pace, this will bring them all up and you can delete them.
It's a matter of seeing which data is contained in each field and then eliminating what you don't want, such as "IP" for in play.

I think a couple of the people on the forum actually grab their own data via webscraping, because the Betfair data has a lot of errors.

[DR RON]

Thanks CP, will be wary of the betfair data, just looking for general trends in price movements.