roulette staking plan

[puntz]

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: puntz on 2003-08-15 13:16 ]</font>

[jfc]

Why do you people keep raking up these mathematically flawed strategies?

In this game you triple your prior stake after each loss.

i.e. you bet this many chips as losses mount:

2
6
18
54
168 (assuming that's within table limits)


So think of it as 4 (maybe 5) level stakes games (with different levels)

Every one should know that you lose playing level stakes at Roulette.

So you'll lose on each of the 4-5 levels.

Add up your individual losses to still get a loss!


If you still don't believe me then read celebrity mathematician Dr E O Thorp's proof:

http://www.urbino.net/articles.cfm?specificArticle=Mathematical%20Expectation



_________________
<font color=red>jfc</font> (http://www.jfc.asxnews.com/)
~ (jfc2000@iprimus.com.au)

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: jfc on 2003-07-01 07:52 ]</font>

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: quapi on 2003-07-01 13:24 ]</font>

[puntz]

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: puntz on 2003-08-15 13:16 ]</font>

[jfc]

Puntz,

your "method" is madness (as are ALL Roulette staking plans).

It is a variation on the absurd Martingale which boils down to "double up after a loss".

This new one triples up after a loss.

It spends far more money than the Martingale hence it should lose far more money.

Both systems are seductive in that you appear to be winning a little all the time. But on the rare occasions you lose, you lose big.

"Winning" $100 an hour suggests 20 spins at a minimum of $10 a spin.

For 20 spins there are ~6 occasions where you need to triple up.

At best this suggests a minimum hourly outlay of $200 + 6*$20 - i.e. $320.

This is costing you 320/37 i.e. ~$9 an hour losses over the long term.


P.S.

Dear Censor,

in case you are again tempted to euphemise the truth, may I remind you I'm paraphrasing Shakespeare (or Marlowe).

[puntz]

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: puntz on 2003-08-15 13:17 ]</font>

[Mr. Logic]

Puntz, you wrote, "Knowing a loss is eminent then you do not actualy bet on every spin."
If you know a combination at rouleette is going to lose then you bet on the other combinations and win. If everyone knew when losses were abot to happen the game of roulette would no longer be played at casinos. The only methods that can win at roulette are based upon the spin of the ball and faulty equipment.

[Hay Chee]

I agree with punts of course you can no when your going to win and goin to lose thats why you can win at roulet. its no diffrent to the pokees its all in visulisation or something simlar.

[puntz]

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: puntz on 2003-08-15 13:17 ]</font>

[becareful]

Spin 7: 2 RTN 0
Spin 8: 6 RTN 0
Spin 9: 18 RTN 0
Spin 10: 54 RTN 0
Spin 11: 168 RTN 0

TOTAL COST: 273 * $5 = $1365
TOTAL Return: 45 * $5 = $225

TOTAL LOSS FOR NIGHT = $1140

So from $85 profit to $1140 loss in 15 minutes. Don't think it wont happen because it will.

[jfc]

Puntz,

What on earth are you trying to do!

You start off describing an outlay of 2 to return 3 - i.e. win 50%

So if you outlay 14 you should get 21 back.

NOT 28!

7 chips profit is NOT going to help recover the 2+6 you lost before, let alone make the 1 chip profit you want.

You need to win 9 which means betting 18.


I told you at the start that you simply have to TRIPLE your last bet after a loss.


I am assuming that you want to grow your original bank by 1 chip after each win.

If not then please explain what you are trying to do, leaving out the distracting Nostradamus crap.

[puntz]

Thanks BC,

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: puntz on 2003-07-12 03:35 ]</font>

[Mr. Logic]

The only problem is any catch up method where the true odds are against you each time MUST LOSE LONG TERM. You might have a lot of fun with it and be in front for a long time. Or you might be wiped out/reach the table limit without a win the first or second time you use it.

[puntz]

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: puntz on 2003-08-15 13:18 ]</font>

[Mr J]

Puntz, it is highly probable that you will never be a long term winner. There is a minute chance that you end up in front, due to variance, but it is highly improbable.

The more you play, the more likely you are to realise the expectation of the game (which is negative).

No betting systems or progressions can beat any casino game, apart from card counting.

I'm sorry, but the only way to beat roulette is either with a prediction computer (it is possible to do this using your own senses/brain, but extremely difficult), or by exploiting faulty equipment.

If you're currently ahead, quit now, and move into a form of gambling where you can find an advantage and exploit it.

[puntz]

Mr J, thanks.
May I add, this method is for fun, no I do not gamble, I hardly use the word, but more to the point I see each cent spent on my chosen "speculative" activities as pot luck.
In racing however, it's a different ball game, there are so many variables, I guess the strategy I use in horse racing, to apply on a roulette wheel, cannot work. but we have the ability to tinker up other strategies, and the casino is not a serious gamble as far as I a concerned. I like the food better!

[Mr J]

It's good that it's for fun, as you shouldn't expect to profit.

I don't know much about the horses, but I'd assume that you beat it like you beat other sports, and that's by being sharper, analyzing everything in greater detail, to have more info etc.

Are you using a progression for horses?

[Boodu]

I have used a similar system in the past and it's is a whole lot of fun. But that's all.

I used to play the dozen groups. Bet on middle and the higher one. When I was "confident" (drunk) I used to also bet on the rows at the same time. Great when it pays off and as you said, you get a free feed, free drink and a free ride home.

Keep going, it's just for fun, not a long term "job".

[Mr J]

Boodu that's alright. I have no problem with people using progressions, just as long as they don't expect to profit off it.

[puntz]

All I can say is, since first starting this topic, and trying out the system, not knowing the "cosmetic changes" at the adelaide casino, I do mnot even wish to think about playing there, but the food is great! There are too many machines and the environment to "gamble" is not right. Too much lighting, too much silvery colors. Wrong colors to concentrate. Seems they use every trick in the book to throw the punters off balance.