Is it True the Fav has never lost on Betfair?

[Pat123]

For political betting? Scottish referendum NO vote is at 1.22.

I've been told the favourite has never lost since Betfair started.

[UselessBettor]

I assume your talking about political betting markets only ?

Technically the fav in Scottish Referendum betting has never lost (never won either).

[Pat123]

Yeah political betting markets.

Should have worded it as that with the shortest odds. So in this case, 1.22 for the NO vote. Any truth to this Betfair thing?

[Mark]

Apparently so Pat.
Since I read that comment there have been several "too close to call" elections where the winner was always the short fav on BF, including here in Australia.

[Pat123]

Interesting.. might put an investment down. Some guy put 800,000 pounds down on NO apparently.

[The Ocho]

If thie running that good then you could easily use some sort of recovery should an outsider get up.

But, just out of curiosity, how many political events are there in a one year period that Betfair bet on?

[Chrome Prince]

Technically correct.
Reason is that it is popular opinion which decides the outcome.
The voters are going one way, and the bettors are going to vote that way.
It's like a mini Morgan Gallop Poll.

However, one has to be careful when one wagers, as one bad rumour, promise, debate, news article can sway the betting.

Last minute, get all over it.

[aussielongboat]

on friday morning its 1.06 on BF.
down from as high as 1.7

[stugots]

Interesting.. might put an investment down. Some guy put 800,000 pounds down on NO apparently.


News report this morning suggests there may be only a 5% margin to the NO vote, wouldnt be real excited at the moment if that bet were mine

[aussielongboat]

News reports love "news" - so a forecast close vote is news and thus eyeballs.

Just as politicians love to create fear - ( which gives them power to propose things that they normally couldn't get away with) the media loves to create uncertainty ( which gives them viewers who normally wouldn't be interested)

hey we are even talking about it.



based on the betting it should be pretty clear cut

[stugots]

trust £800k pound on the whim of a Scotsman? yeah, nah;)

[Chrome Prince]

When news reports it's close, it motivates voters to take action. So those that thought I won't bother, will turn out to make sure it doesn't go ahead.
In fact news reports like this, turn the odds further in your favour.

[The Ocho]

Does anyone know if there are there a lot of these political type bets per year or are there only a few that betfair bet on? i.e. Is it worth adding to your arsenal?

[Chrome Prince]

Betfair bet on quite a few, but I wouldn't be taking odds about foreign countries other than UK USA and AUS.
There are also State elections etc. But truthfully I don't know that these are markets you want to get into.

[Mark]

Never in doubt despite "too close to call" statements on the news.

[blackdog1]

Don't bet on political events but this result was a certainty.
What fool would vote himself out of a welfare $$?

Which is going to be the eventual end of democracy, when too many ppl can decide the outcome by voting to receive an income from the public purse for doing nothing.
Eventually the leeches outnumber the providers and the system collapses.

[Pat123]

ooo there we have it.

[Chrome Prince]

Eventually the leeches outnumber the providers and the system collapses.
Already self destructing here blackdog, and it's going to get to implosion within the next few years!
Less jobs
Less housing
More violence
More retirees that are pension reliant.

I wonder if Betfair would run a market on economic collapse?

[SpeedyBen]

I suggest that the large bet was probably to cover a business loss which would have eventuated for the person concerned if the YES vote had succeeded. Very astute, if that is the case.