Musings on the Melb. Cup...

[Lord Greystoke]

My Melbourne Cup selection guide:

Not too heavy = ?
Not too old = ?
Not too distant = ?
Not too BOLD = ?

Fill in the gaps at your leisure gentlemen!

Cheers LG

PS Its ALL here somewhere (isn't it always?)

[Lord Greystoke]

My Melbourne Cup selection guide:

Not too heavy = ?
Not too old = ?
Not too familiar = ?
Not too BOLD = ?

Fill in the gaps at your leisure gentlemen!

Cheers LG

PS Its ALL here somewhere (isn't it always?)

A minor change gents!

LG

[evajb001]

From memory I think it was Speedy who had some pretty simple filters that provided majority of the winners in recent years. I know it helped me pick Green Moon.

[Lord Greystoke]

From memory I think it was Speedy who had some pretty simple filters that provided majority of the winners in recent years. I know it helped me pick Green Moon.

Nailed Green Moon that year I seem to remember. 20s or thereabouts?

Care to have a crack at the gaps above mate?

Cheers LG

PS there are cup systems and then there are CUP systems. Think Bolly :D

[UselessBettor]

I have a set of rules that haven't failed me yet which means this year is probably the year they fail.

I have them in an email buried away which I pull out each year in Nov. I'll try and post the rules when I find them.

[Lord Greystoke]

Stuff of CHAMPIONS mate!

Cheers LG

[SpeedyBen]

From memory I think it was Speedy who had some pretty simple filters that provided majority of the winners in recent years. I know it helped me pick Green Moon.
I'll be baak !!

[darkydog2002]

Easiest Race in Australia to beat.
Mind you last year my 50 /1 horse came 2nd.

[SpeedyBen]

My Melbourne Cup selection guide:

Not too heavy = ?
Not too old = ?
Not too distant = ?
Not too BOLD = ?

Fill in the gaps at your leisure gentlemen!

Cheers LG

PS Its ALL here somewhere (isn't it always?)
Not too Long
Not too Short

[Lord Greystoke]

Not too Long
Not too Short

Previous runs count for nought

LG

[UselessBettor]

Previous runs count for nought

LGThen wouldn't the result therefore be random ?

[Lord Greystoke]

Then wouldn't the result therefore be random ?

previous runs in the cup

Cheers LG

[SpeedyBen]

previous runs in the cup

Cheers LG

With the exception of Fiorente that has been true since the wonder mare.

[UselessBettor]

previous runs in the cup

Cheers LG
thanks for clarification.

[SpeedyBen]

I see that Red Cadeaux is back for another crack. What a warrior he is, lining up in distance races all over the world and being competitive in most of them.

[The Ocho]

I have a set of rules that haven't failed me yet which means this year is probably the year they fail.

I have them in an email buried away which I pull out each year in Nov. I'll try and post the rules when I find them.
How you going with finding those rules, UB?

[UselessBettor]

Yeah I found the the other day and posting here from memory as I don't have them with me.

They were basically

1. 56.5Kg and under
2. Win strike rate min 1%
3. place strike rate min 35%
4. Ran within last 3-17 days. 17 days = Caulfield Cup day
5. Age 4-7
6. Exclude barrier 1

There was another one which I think was around odds range of $4- $51 but could be wrong on the exact odds.

This generally gives you a cut down list on contenders which you can then take a look at or you can dutch bet.

Just looking quickly it would give the following

Junoob
Who Shot the barman
Brambles
Au Revior
Opinion
Alraldo
Lucia Valentina
Signoff

[SpeedyBen]

Only two horses have survived my history based rules this year. The last time it happened they ran 1 -2.

No 22 Lucia Valentina
No 24 Signoff

[rails run]

Only two horses have survived my history based rules this year. The last time it happened they ran 1 -2.

No 22 Lucia Valentina
No 24 SignoffThanks Speedy. I had worked your rules this morning and got the same selections so it's good to see you confirm it. I have been a believer since you put me into Green Moon! And ever grateful!

[SpeedyBen]

Thanks Rails. The original rules have worked every year since 2008. In a stroke of genius I added another rule last year which excluded Fiorente. It's probably a good rule long term but it doesn't affect anything this year.

[UselessBettor]

Only two horses have survived my history based rules this year. The last time it happened they ran 1 -2.

No 22 Lucia Valentina
No 24 Signoff
Two very good horses and would both be in my top 3 or 4 selections.

[SpeedyBen]

From a personal point of view, I'm happy to be on those two, UB

[darkydog2002]

Wont be getting 1 red cent of mine.

[SpeedyBen]

Good to hear.
How about a pre race tip this year, Darky?

[Lord Greystoke]

Think you are missing one out there gents. No 5?

Cheers LG

[SpeedyBen]

It's a long time since a horse has won coming off a break of more than 17 days, My Lord.
I may be wrong but I think it was Vintage Crop

[Lord Greystoke]

Sorry mate. That was me being a numb nuts. Hows about No 21 however?

Cheers LG

[SpeedyBen]

My rules eliminate Araldo because it is 7yo and greater than 20.0 in the market.
The rules will certainly eliminate the winner sooner or later. Could be this year.
Apart from the great MD who broke all the rules I think Rogan Josh may have been the last 7yo+ to win. May be wrong but it was a long time ago.

[Lord Greystoke]

My rules eliminate Araldo because it is 7yo and greater than 20.0 in the market.
The rules will certainly eliminate the winner sooner or later. Could be this year.
Apart from the great MD who broke all the rules I think Rogan Josh may have been the last 7yo+ to win. May be wrong but it was a long time ago.

You are correct there Speedy. Vintage Crop the only other 7yo to win since 1983

Cheers LG

[SpeedyBen]

I know stuff about previous cups, My Lord. I have always been fascinated by it.
I have my biggest single race outlay each year on the great race. The mug money makes it attractive. I reckon Fiorente's correct price was probably 4.50 or less last year but the man in the street's money stretched it to 6.0 SP.

[Lord Greystoke]

I like your thinking there Speedy. Regards a 7yo winning, would be 4 times since 1983 and the last 4 winners were 6yo. Makes you wonder a bit.

Cheers LG

[Lord Greystoke]

Here is an interesting link (http://www.racenet.com.au/Group-Races-Data/Group-Data.asp?RegRaceName=VRC%20Melbourne%20Cup) which gives a nice run down back to 1983.

Cheers LG

[darkydog2002]

Will be posted as usual on Cup Day Speedy.
Only got 2nd @50/1 last year.

Cheers

[SpeedyBen]

I like your thinking there Speedy. Regards a 7yo winning, would be 4 times since 1983 and the last 4 winners were 6yo. Makes you wonder a bit.

Cheers LG
I considered allowing 7yo UK horses in as they are not 7 yet but quite a few UK 7yos have tried without success so I've left it as is.

[SpeedyBen]

All this stuff makes me think that Makybe will still be spoken of with reverence in 50 years time.
She not only won as a 7yo but carried 58kg which has been beyond the males since the Cup went upmarket.

[The Ocho]

Okay thanks guys.

I was just looking at the fields for the day's racing as I am in a cup day syndicate and all those fields are massive. No wonder we never do much good. :rolleyes:

We usually go for trifectas, first fours and running doubles (and a quaddie if there is enough left over). We are obviously trying to hit it big rather than just backing the fav (or whatever).

Does anyone have any other/different suggestions?

[michaelg]

I had a Trifecta system on the M.Cup for several years but lost interest. On Cup morning I would look at the market in the Telegraph and all horses at $20 (or was it $25?) I would put them to win in a stand-out trifecta and the field to run second and third. I looked at this method from the results going back to the mid 70's when Trifectas were introduced, and the profit would have been amazing thanks to some big outsiders running second or/and third. I started betting with real money when flexi betting was introduced and the first year the trifecta paid in inxs of $20,000. There is so much "silly' money on the Cup - people bet on the horse/jockey's colours, names, numbers, birth dates, etc that often the exotics pay amazingly well. I lost interest when I unsuccessfully tried to adapt this trifecta method to other races and when the two Japanese horses quinelled the race. Tomorrow out of interest I will look the selections for the method.

[UselessBettor]

Overall I have 11 horses marked as possible winners.

I've settled on 1,3,5,22,24 as the only significant chances of winning though.

If I have to narrow it down I would say I can't split 1,5 and 22 as the best of these.

AS for the race I'll be laying the 12 selections I don't see having a chance.

[UselessBettor]

Here are the 11 I had as chances:

Admiral Rakti
Fawkner
Protectionist
Seismos
Junoob
Mutual Regard
Who shot the barman
Au Reviour
Araldo
Lucia Valentina
Signoff

[Lord Greystoke]

Here are the 11 I had as chances:

Admiral Rakti
Fawkner
Protectionist
Seismos
Junoob
Mutual Regard
Who shot the barman
Au Reviour
Araldo
Lucia Valentina
Signoff

Nice one UB. Lets hop that barman is wearing a vest bc I NAILED him at $26

Cheers LG

[UselessBettor]

OK after watching a few more videos I am going to have to throw in signoff in my ones which are hard to split.

If I have to order them it is :

Lucia Valentina
Signoff
Protectionist
Admire Rakti

Lucia Valentina or Signoff probably win this depending on runs. Signoff I expect a little closer to the speed and Lucia Valentina may have some traffic to contend with.

If you look at Admire Rakti's form it could be anywhere but the stats probably rule him and protectionist off winning this.

Scarily that leaves me with both SpeedyBens tips and I have to agree they are the two most likely to win based on their age, weight, form and other historical pointers to the likely winner of the cup.

Box the field around them and have them both as standouts. If I am right that is 2*1*F + 2*F*1 + F*2*1 which is $126 for trifecta but this could be broken down a lot better as well by changing F*2*1 to only include real winning chances so lets try this tomorrow :

2*1*F + 2*F*1 +(my 9 other chances)*2*1 = 42+42+18 = $102.

[rails run]

Nice one UB. Lets hop that barman is wearing a vest bc I NAILED him at $26

Cheers LGUnless I am mistaken he now qualifies under Speedy's system having made it into the price range. So that's 3 qualifiers in total as this stage.

[Lord Greystoke]

Unless I am mistaken he now qualifies under Speedy's system having made it into the price range. So that's 3 qualifiers in total as this stage.

SPOT ON Rails. I added him in because he qualified on all other factors apart from price. Couldn't see the $26 lasting that long so I locked it in. Obviously got lucky. Keeps coming in on TAB Fixed Win. Was $16 earlier, now $13.

Cheers LG

[SpeedyBen]

SPOT ON Rails. I added him in because he qualified on all other factors apart from price. Couldn't see the $26 lasting that long so I locked it in. Obviously got lucky. Keeps coming in on TAB Fixed Win. Was $16 earlier, now $13.

Cheers LG
Good thinking, 99.
The barman is in.

[SpeedyBen]

The Barman is 24.0 on BF at 10 pm WA time. That'll do me.

[Lord Greystoke]

The Barman is 24.0 on BF at 10 pm WA time. That'll do me.

The word Speedy comes to mind ;-)

LG

[michaelg]

My M.Cup stand-out trifecta system is

1,3,4,5,11,12,22,24 (to win)
field (to run second
field (to run third).

The outlay providing there are no further scratchings is $4,048 or $405 with a 1% flexi bet.

Good luck, everyone.

[SpeedyBen]

My M.Cup stand-out trifecta system is

1,3,4,5,11,12,22,24 (to win)
field (to run second
field (to run third).

The outlay providing there are no further scratchings is $4,048 or $405 with a 1% flexi bet.

Good luck, everyone.
Good luck with the longshots Michael.

[SpeedyBen]

The word Speedy comes to mind ;-)

LG
That's what the girls used to say.

[Chrome Prince]

My picks for the Cup are:
Number 11
Mutual Regard

Number 12
Who Shot Thebarman

Best of luck all, because luck in running is the key to winning the Melbourne Cup.
Great to see champion English jockey Ryan Moore in the field, but has Frankie Dettori thrown in the towel?

[michaelg]

Thanks, SpeedyBen.

I'm laying all horses in the race with an even TAB number.

[SpeedyBen]

I have a prediction : Ryan Moore will ride a shocker.
Where's Darky's pre race selection?

[SpeedyBen]

I have a prediction : Ryan Moore will ride a shocker.
Where's Darky's pre race selection?
Humble apologies, Ryan.

[beton]

Shows how hard it to pick the winner. A simple movement. A gap. An opportunity and a win. A split second between a win or a boxed in also ran. As CP said "It is all about the luck in running"
Could have been any of 10 horses to win.

[beton]

Admire Rakti RIP

[UselessBettor]

Shows how hard it to pick the winner. A simple movement. A gap. An opportunity and a win. A split second between a win or a boxed in also ran. As CP said "It is all about the luck in running"
Could have been any of 10 horses to win.
And that is why you pick the best chances and bet all of them and not just one.

[UselessBettor]

Admire Rakti RIP

yes very sad news.

[UselessBettor]

ALRADO also has a shattered cannon bone and may be put down. Such a shame as it was caused by being spooked by a child with a flag.

[darkydog2002]

Speedy,

Under thread Melb Cup

Another excellent result.

[darkydog2002]

See also - Myer Classic

[The Ocho]

Well those Melbourne Cup systems didn't do too good. Back to the drawing board with those.

RIP Admire Rakti & Araldo

[UselessBettor]

Well those Melbourne Cup systems didn't do too good. Back to the drawing board with those.

RIP Admire Rakti & Araldo
Hows that Ocho. I had Protectionist in my list of 4 horses ? Go back and check.

[The Ocho]

OK after watching a few more videos I am going to have to throw in signoff in my ones which are hard to split.

If I have to order them it is :

Lucia Valentina
Signoff
Protectionist
Admire Rakti

Lucia Valentina or Signoff probably win this depending on runs. Signoff I expect a little closer to the speed and Lucia Valentina may have some traffic to contend with.

If you look at Admire Rakti's form it could be anywhere but the stats probably rule him and protectionist off winning this.

Scarily that leaves me with both SpeedyBens tips and I have to agree they are the two most likely to win based on their age, weight, form and other historical pointers to the likely winner of the cup.

Box the field around them and have them both as standouts. If I am right that is 2*1*F + 2*F*1 + F*2*1 which is $126 for trifecta but this could be broken down a lot better as well by changing F*2*1 to only include real winning chances so lets try this tomorrow :

2*1*F + 2*F*1 +(my 9 other chances)*2*1 = 42+42+18 = $102.



I apologise UB. You did pick it as one of four however you removed it from the trifecta system.

I was probably referring to SB's system when I was saying back to the drawing board.

MG's trifecta system got the tri but it cost $4.048K and won 1.9K.

[UselessBettor]

I apologise UB. You did pick it as one of four however you removed it from the trifecta system.

I was probably referring to SB's system when I was saying back to the drawing board.

MG's trifecta system got the tri but it cost $4.048K and won 1.9K.
Yeah I constantly try to get down to a just a few selections but always better to go a little wider in the cup for safety.

[michaelg]

Yes, T.O. the method lost even though it had the trifecta.

It loses most years but every so often there's a fantastic result. For example, when Vintage Crop won (so did the method) the trifecta paid $60,000. There's also been other good years.
And if the win section of the trifecta had been bet to Win on Betfair to collect $100 then the profit would be outstanding, with only one losing year. That was when Bart Cummings had his last winner (I can't remember the name of the horse...was it Viewed?).

[Rinconpaul]

Whilst on the subject of multis, here's another approach. Look at % change in Back price since the Open. The graph shows the plus or minus change in price for each runner. The first four placing's never had a plus/minus change in price above 15%. Debatable though, whether the payoff (positive) was as cost effective as simpler methods?

[Lord Greystoke]

Think you might be a little harsh on Speedy's system here TO with regards your call to 'go back to the drawing board'. A couple of things I noted in the aftermath - follow up to the race, and in hindsight of course...

1. Speedy (or someone else else here?) did mention that 'the rules'will be broken one day - who or what guarantees they will stick 100% in perpetuity? Not sure there is such a system anywhere. For instance, 7yo's do win, just not as often?

2. Only ONE of the rules were broken in my book being No.days since last start= 24 (3-17d was the consensus I believe). Might be wrong bc I don't have my s/s in front of me just now.

3. Protectionist had one of the best if not the best jock in the world on top.

For these reasons, I had a saver bet on the nose which saved my bacon on the day. I also noted that one of Dom Bierne's favorite means of whitling them down had Protectionist in a short list of 4-5. NO need to go back to the drawing board here my good friend. It is STILL possible to pick the winner of the cup from a handful of chances I reckon.

That's my musings on the 2014 Melbourne Cup.. DONE and dusted!

Cheers LG

[FredTheMug]

Yes, T.O. the method lost even though it had the trifecta.

It loses most years but every so often there's a fantastic result. For example, when Vintage Crop won (so did the method) the trifecta paid $60,000. There's also been other good years.
And if the win section of the trifecta had been bet to Win on Betfair to collect $100 then the profit would be outstanding, with only one losing year. That was when Bart Cummings had his last winner (I can't remember the name of the horse...was it Viewed?).

Michaelg, have you had a look at TAB ProBet? Haven't used it myself, but the free version claims to do dutching on exotics with flexi. It increases and decreases stakes on particular selections so that you have no losing combinations, but still allow you to have your big standouts. I'm guessing it works by automatically placing multiple flexi bets to get the right stake for each combo.

[evajb001]

A few things to remember based on Speedy's elimination rules:

Protectionist was only excluded based on one rule as far as I can tell (hadn't won a group 2/3 race or placed in a group 1 race in a lead up race within aus). I see this as a very good rule but thought it would be the first to be broken given the number of internationals that continue to attend and not run good or any leadup races. Therefore I included protectionist as at least it did have A lead up run even if it didn't place.

Also to remember, who shot the barman and signoff were 2 of Speedy's 3 selections and they finished 3rd and 4th.

I'm still shocked that Red Cadeaux ran 2nd again and looked pretty comfortable when it hit the front too. Definitely think speedy's rules still work :)

[michaelg]

Hi, FredTheMug. I'm not aware of TAB ProBet. It sounds very interesting but the only concern I've got is the word TAB...and also at the moment I'm into laying not backing. Is TAB ProBet connected to a TAB or an independent betting agency...I think it could be worthwhile investigating?

[Lord Greystoke]

PS thanks for your input on this thread gentlemen and also for your kind words around whether I was checking the form guide upstairs or downstairs these days.

You are all FIRST CLASS in my book lads fwiw

Cheers LG

[FredTheMug]

michaelg, TAB ProBet is direct to TAB VIC/NSW totes. Only mentioned it because of your trifecta flexi. You are right, not useful at all for laying.

[beton]

Ratings, Tips, Opinions. What one hand gives, another takes away. I had one set of ratings that gave the winner as top rated. But it also gave Red Cadeaux last rank. The barman about sixth. Then if you play the what if game, where are you? The winner had the field split at the exact time he needed, jumped up a notch and ploughed home.

[SpeedyBen]

Protectionist only failed the last start within 17 days rule. The Grp requirements were more as a secondary set if I get too many selections. I don't know what I said about that last year but I didn't ever intend to make it a primary rule.
The 17 days rule was put in to make it easier to eliminate o/s horses having their first start this campaign. I don't like horses having a 24 day break before a 2 mile race and I'm happy to have the rule in next year.
Back to the drawing board after 1 failure in 7 years? Don't think so, Ocho. I was quite prepared for it to fail as I have been every year since 2008 and I've mentioned this each year that I've put the horses up.

[blackdog1]

The winner had the field split at the exact time he needed, jumped up a notch and ploughed home.You can turn this around and say that the winner, both horse and jockey were good enough to take advantage of the field splitting.
Also the good ones make their own luck in racing.
My selection had an open field wide enough for a herd of elephants and did nothing.

[rails run]

Thanks for putting your thoughts up again Speedy. A near miss this year but you are well ahead overall.

[SpeedyBen]

Onya, Rails.
If I'd told someone in 2008 my selection method would fare as well as it has they would have found it difficult to believe. I find it difficult to believe. It's a bolody 20+ horse race with a million variables when the gates crash back. The winner fell into an unusual category with a 24 day gap between runs. He is the only one in 7 years in my original groups that has had that form pattern.
I thought about whether to include him and decided against it as I will do next year if something similar arises.

[The Ocho]

I may have been a tad harsh there SB. Sorry about that Chief!

I was just hoping to have a good day for my mate's cup day syndicate but alas we did no good on the day at all and lost our shirts (but that's another story).

Your barman pick though got me the chocies with place bets parlays so I (myself) won on the day. Thanks.