What if.. ?

[Lord Greystoke]

What if the world was really upside down - inside out - back the front.

E.G The last 3 runs

What if most of us are reading it backwards?

Cheers LG

[darkydog2002]

Yeah.
Most punters rely on the last run without ever considering what Class of race it was .
i.e up in class , drop in class, same class.

Is that what you were referring to?

[Rinconpaul]

What if the world was really upside down - inside out - back the front.

E.G The last 3 runs

What if most of us are reading it backwards?

Cheers LG

I think what LG is referring to is something like Held Hostage's form?
1 2 5 due for a win again? and did at $7.80

[Lord Greystoke]

I think what LG is referring to is something like Held Hostage's form?
1 2 5 due for a win again? and did at $7.80

Jeepers. You know me better than I do RP! Any thoughts on this one gentlemen??

Cheers LG

[darkydog2002]

Rinconpaul

Might be but how would one know without considering ALL the form factors that produce winners.
i.e Class /weight etc etc

[Lord Greystoke]

Was thinking more on these angles Darky...

1. The horse is in the race because the trainer thinks it has some chance of winning. Regardless of current form

2. It has been successful before based on its earlier form

3. We get better value given its best form is not its most recent

LG

[Rinconpaul]

Rinconpaul

Might be but how would one know without considering ALL the form factors that produce winners.
i.e Class /weight etc etc

Well considering that assessing horses based on recent form only produces 1 in 3 winners, then LG's contrarian approach is as good as any, in my book ;)
Looking at Flemington yesterday the winners L3s were:
1
125
699
x11
532
115
x11
N31
x13

Just an observation, but I'd be dropping that one LG in favour of: Had a win in last three starts? 7 out of 9 :)

[Lord Greystoke]

Well considering that assessing horses based on recent form only produces 1 in 3 winners, then LG's contrarian approach is as good as any, in my book ;)
Looking at Flemington yesterday the winners L3s were:
1 (1) 16.10
125 (4) 7.80
699 (3) 10.60
x11 (11) 3.10
532 (5) 5.50
115 (8) 9.70
x11 (5) 9.50
N31 (5) 7.00
x13 (4) 4.40

Just an observation, but I'd be dropping that one LG in favour of: Had a win in last three starts? 7 out of 9 :)

Food for thought RP. Have listed the no. of selections in each race with a win in last 3 starts and the div on unitab as a guide.

Cheers LG

[darkydog2002]

Hi Rincon ,
Perhaps you would run that through your R2W data base.
I,m interested in the outcome

Cheers and thanks

[darkydog2002]

LG,
Is your thinking along the lines of excluding LS winners but including 3rd and 2nd runs in current campaign.

I love this sort of intellectual challenge.

Thanks for posting.

ps I will look along the lines of price ranges i.e $2 - $11 but today ALL price ranges.

Good luck with it.

[Rinconpaul]

Hi Rincon ,
Perhaps you would run that through your R2W data base.
I,m interested in the outcome

Cheers and thanks


Hahahaa, that's like waving a red flag at a bull Darky. Haven't been with them for awhile now. Banned from mentioning them!

Found an interesting stat from a CP post in 2004.

60% of races are won by a horse that ran 1st-4th last start
Also consider:
1st in at least one of its last two starts: 31%
2nd in at least one of its last two starts: 29%
That's a 60%er in my book.

[darkydog2002]

Sorry.
I didnt know that.

With CP figures was there a preferred price range.

Cheers

[Rinconpaul]

Sorry.
I didnt know that.

With CP figures was there a preferred price range.

Cheers

Sorry Darky and apologies to CP, it wasn't his post, it was Chuck.
If you search for the thread Useful Facts and Stats, there's 5 pages of stuff. I don't Back anything, but it's always handy to know when laying what the percentages are stacked against you. Happy researching.

[Lord Greystoke]

LG,
Is your thinking along the lines of excluding LS winners but including 3rd and 2nd runs in current campaign.

I love this sort of intellectual challenge.

Thanks for posting.

ps I will look along the lines of price ranges i.e $2 - $11 but today ALL price ranges.

Good luck with it.

Hi Darky, was just thinking.. why don't we take the standard form goggles off every now and then, flip the lenses and put em back on. See what we get.

Beats watching favorites getting up 30% of the time till the paint dries??

Cheers LG

[darkydog2002]

Good point because 67 % of non favs get up.

Will have a look at the thread Rinconpaul suggested.

I have most of Malcolm Knowles research here too.

[darkydog2002]

Thanks Rinconpaul.
Will do.
Cheers

[Lord Greystoke]

Good call Darky.

Was meaning to ask you - what sticks out from Mr Knowles in your opinion i.e. stuff which still holds true - stands up today??

Cheers LG

[darkydog2002]

The thing that sticks out with Malcolms research is that the stats run over hundreds of thousands of races and not just a few thousand so in my opinion more likely to stand up long term.

Cheers

[Lord Greystoke]

The thing that sticks out with Malcolms research is that the stats run over hundreds of thousands of races and not just a few thousand so in my opinion more likely to stand up long term.

Cheers

Including that old chesnut you allude to from time to time = 55kg+ I take it?

Cheers LG

[Lord Greystoke]

Winners from randwick yesterday with last 3 starts etc

52 (0)
1 (6) 2.50
241 (3) 4.60
31x (2) 2.80
324 (2)
5x2 (4)
215 (6) 25.70
45x (4)

Cheers LG

[darkydog2002]

Certainly does.