Death of the Betfair Scalp?

[Rinconpaul]

I use Bet Angel which is very geared for trading, not that I use it for that. I read their blog, and the consensus of opinion, seems to be, that no one's making anything trading, despite all the bells and whistles in software?

Here's a comment from their forum today, " ...don't know about other traders but I have almost given up scalping the pre race markets. They have become either too volatile or it takes ages to get money matched, by which time the market can move against you. It seems much easier to sit back and wait for a developing swing trade. i.e trading fewer markets and waiting for the right move. This of course needs a high level of patience as you are doing nothing for a lot of the time." (tweebie1999)

That's why if you ever 'cotton on' to a new approach to punting, keep it to yourself! If it's a profitable idea, it won't remain profitable for too long, once everyone jumps on board.

[The Ocho]

I haven't been doing any trading at all lately but when I was trying it again a month or two ago I also found it quite volatile and was losing consistently - whereas in my heyday I used to do okay. Maybe I've lost it or the markets have changed (possibly both). :(

[Chrome Prince]

Liquidity and volatility have changed massively.

[Rinconpaul]

This was the reply to the tweebie post, from the man who invented Bet Angel and has done very well from it:

"This is why I recommended Betdaq during Cheltenham, you can still scalp that with ease. Betfair is a whole different ball game on the scalping front"

So from that comment I can only assume that Betfair is now saturated with 'smarties' and they've cruelled their own edge, hence the need to exploit lesser exchange platforms?

But you'll know what'll happen, don't you?

[UselessBettor]

Liquidity and volatility have changed massively.

This are wild accusations. Prove it with figures.

[Chrome Prince]

I really don't think they are wild accusations.
I'm not accusing anyone of anything UB.
Except for Betfair SP, the market liquidity has fallen dramatically on horseracing both here and overseas, prepost, except for a couple of big race exceptions.
MY experience has been I cannot get on early on anything but those firmly in the market.
A lot of Betfair's turnover now comes from SP and inplay horseracing.
I don't think I have to prove it, blind freddy can see it.
Betdaq's liquidity came directly from Betfair, only "we" can't use it.

[UselessBettor]

There is actually more money being traded then a few years ago and this is publicly available in their annual results so the money is still there.

Perhaps the invention of SP has moved a lot of the money which was on the exchange to Betfair SP. SP has grown tremendously in recent years. But the overall amount of money traded keeps growing and I suspect it will continue to grow.

[Mark]

The amount of money bet may have increased, but it is all in the last 5 minutes or so. In the past you could make books or trade or have a decent bet in the hours (and sometimes days) leading up to a race. Unfortunately this is far from the case now.

[The Ocho]

So, why the shift? What is happening now and why, in your guy's opinions?

[Mark]

I posted many, many years ago on the BF forum that unfortunately I could see the future where it would come down to the few with the biggest, smartest & fastest bots just taking up most of the markets. There would be very little interaction with REAL people (punters). The proliferation of bots just going over the lay side and undercutting the back side plus the BF matching bot have seen this, in my opinion, come true. Most days I don't believe that I'm taking many bets from actual individuals, but just helping the bots to trade or do whatever it is they do. Over time my % profit has not changed much, it's the turnover that has fallen. I have remedied this by betting bigger, but sadly, for me anyway, BF is not what it used to be.