SCATTERGUN APPROACH.

[darkydog2002]

FOR A BIT OF FUN I HAVE RECENTLY HAD DOWNLOADS OF THE MAJOR RATING PLAYERS SELECTIONS.3 RATING SERVICES IN ALL.
THE RESULTS TODAY ON A GOOD TRACK AT PT.MCQUARIE.
41 BETS.RESULTS.$6.60/2.10 5.60/1.80
2.30/1.40 2.50/1.50.
MY QUESTION IS.WITH AN AV OF 5 BETS IN EACH RACE ARE THEY JUST TAKING POT LUCK.OR HAVE THEY INVESTED IN ROGER BIGGS GOLDEN PIN SYSTEM.

[Chrome Prince]

Hi Darkydog,

I think with five picks in each race, you are meant to target the overlays rather than try and dutch bet them all.

Most of the ratings services provide odds for their chances and you are to target overlays.

Interesting results though, with all the winners being fairly short, so wouldn't imagine too many of them would have been "overlays".

[darkydog2002]

HI CHROME PRINCE.I AGREE .BUT SOME OF THEM WERE RATED AT 20/1 PLUS(THEIR PRICE).I DONT KNOW ABOUT YOU BUT IF THEY,VE GOT IT AT THOSE PRICES YOU WOULD HAVE TO ASSUME IT TO BE SOMEWHAT OF A DONKEY IF THEY WERE EXPECTING IT TO BE HIGHER ON COURSE THAN THAT. IN MY OPININION BEST LEFT ALONE.
PROBABLY A BETTER OPTION WOULD BE TO ONLY SUPPORT THOSE THEY GIVE AT LEAST A CHANCE.SAY 3/1 OR SHORTER.

WHY RATE THESE 20/1 POPS AT ALL.

[Mr. Logic]

I don't see a problem. The Wizard prices horses at 100/1 and more when rating the entire field.

[Chrome Prince]

On 2003-07-28 21:42, darkydog2002 wrote:
HI CHROME PRINCE.I AGREE .BUT SOME OF THEM WERE RATED AT 20/1 PLUS(THEIR PRICE).I DONT KNOW ABOUT YOU BUT IF THEY,VE GOT IT AT THOSE PRICES YOU WOULD HAVE TO ASSUME IT TO BE SOMEWHAT OF A DONKEY IF THEY WERE EXPECTING IT TO BE HIGHER ON COURSE THAN THAT. IN MY OPININION BEST LEFT ALONE.
PROBABLY A BETTER OPTION WOULD BE TO ONLY SUPPORT THOSE THEY GIVE AT LEAST A CHANCE.SAY 3/1 OR SHORTER.

WHY RATE THESE 20/1 POPS AT ALL.



Agreed Darkydog,
But all you need are a couple of "donkeys" at overlay odds per month and you've got a nice return providing the ratings are accurate.
This is the most important point, or you could go belly up!

If you are of course only chasing say the top three rated when overlays, sometimes you would expect shorter run of outs, but strike hard when there is standout value.

It all comes down to the accuracy of the ratings.

[Shaun]

i have been takeing the wizards top 3 on selected races...good results....i backed Oscar Warrior the last 3 weeks got back 64.20/13.30/nil

[darkydog2002]

MR LOGIC.THE PROBLEM AS I SEE IT IS THAT THEY ARE NOT RATING THE WHOLE FIELD.ONLY THE TOP 5 HORSES.AND IF THEY ARE RATING SOME OF THESE AT THESE AT 20/1 PLUS( THEIR PRICES)THEY DONT APPEAR TO ME AT ANY RATE TO GIVE THE HORSE MUCH CHANCE IF ANY OF SALUTING THE JUDGE SO WHY RATE THEM AT ALL.
SURE 1 OR 2 MIGHT POP UP IN A YEAR AND THEN ITS ALL BELLS AND WHISTLES WITH FRONT PAGE ADS BUT IN GENERAL A TOTAL WASTE OF TIME.

[darkydog2002]

JUST AS A MATTER OF INTEREST.HERES WHAT ONE RATING SERVICE RATES TODAY.ALL OVER 10/1(THEIR PRICE).WE WILL GO FOR THE GOOD TRACK.
ITS HARD ENOUGH GETTING A WINNER WITHOUT BETTING ON DODGY TRACK CONDITIONS.
BALLINA.RACE 1 H 5 12/1.
r 2 h 3 11/1
R3 H 5 11/1 H 7 12/1
R 4 H 8 12/1.
R 5 H 8 12/1.

R 6 H 5 12/1.H 6 11/1.
R 7 H 6 11/1.
R 8 H 5 11/1.
BE AN INTERESTING EXERCISE TO SEE HOW THEY FARE.AND AT WHAT PRICES THE BOOKIES HAVE THEM.
SEE YOU AT THE PAYOUT WINDOW OR WILL IT BE THE PIE STALL AND BUS STOP.

[darkydog2002]

BLIMEY.THE PIE WAS SOGGY AND AS FOR THE BUS DONT MENTION THAT.

[twood]

Hi Darkydog,

I prefer to assess a ratings service on how its top rated horse performs rather than how the lesser rated perform. Surely the top rated horse is the one that the rater thinks is the most likely to win the race.

At Ballina today your rating service had 5 top rated winners from the 8 races. On the heavy track at Ballarat the service had 2 winners from the 9 races. In total there were 7 top rated winners in 17 races. I make this a 41% success rate. The best winner was $5.50 on NSW TAB. Looks like the rater was doing something right.

Today if you had followed the rater’s prime choices you could have gone home by cab and picked up a nice takeway on the journey.

[Mr. Logic]

Darkydog, you'll often find The Wizard's 5th. horse at 12/1 in a market to 100%. So maybe this service is looking for a significant overlay on their 5th. selection.
Instead of 12/1 they want 20/1 for it.

[darkydog2002]

TWOOD.IN TRUTH I DID GO HOME A NICE WINNER.69.5%P.O.T .USING THE POWER OF 10 FROM BET SMARTER AND WIN. THE HIGHER PRICED I PUT IN THE THREAD WAS MORE AN ILLUSTRATION OF WHY ONE SHOULD GO FOR THE LOWER RATED HORSES RATHER THAN THE HIGHER ONES.
NONE OF MY LETTERS ARE MEANT TO BE SARCASTIC IN ANY WAY OF ANY RATING SERVICE .THEY ALL HAVE A PURPOSE.
BUT SOMETIMES WE ALL NEED A LAUGH JUST TO LIGHTEN THE LOAD A BIT.

[Shaun]

The thing i have noticed with rateings is that the second and third horses do better than the top selection...i asked myself why is it so.....i think the answer is that the top rated horse may be the best in the race but it also maybe at its peak the second and third horses maybe peaking so they still have some improvement left in them.....just my thoughts.

[darkydog2002]

SHAUN.I TEND TO AGREE WITH YOU.

[darkydog2002]

I AM YET TO BE CONVINCED THAT RATINGS OF THIS TYPE BY VIRTUE OF THE SHEER VOLUME OF THE SELECTIONS COULD EVER BE A LONG TERM WINNER.
IS THERE ANYONE OUT THERE WHO HAS USED THEM LONG TERM AND WHAT WAS THEIR APPROACH.

[Shaun]

Rateings are the only thing that i would ever use i know a lot of people use systems eg must be a last start winner with in 10 days and a c/d winner in actual fact this is what a rateings system does except it would translate this to a figure foe each rule no mater what you use as long as you use the most relevent information you can't go wrong....example of wrong info would be back runners with an R as the second letter in thier name(i did see this in pratical punting)if you limit your races then rateings can work....i know the rateings people have to rate every race to satisfy thier customers but you don't have to bet in all of them.....take yesterday as example there was only two playable races for me that being BRI 6 ADL 7 from the wizards top 3 i had two winners one at $11.90 and the other at $3.80 useing a percentage of bank bet and my own safety net i was able to make 100+% profit.

[darkydog2002]

SHAUN .I AGREE TOTALLY THAT RATINGS ARE THE WAY TO GO.AND YES THE BEST SYSTEMS ARE BUILT AROUND WT /CLASS/FIELD STRENGTH RATINGS.
MY POINT BEING THAT LIKE YOU PICK YOUR RACES CAREFULLY AND LEAVE CRAP RACES LIKE MAIDENS /CLASS 1 ETC ALONE.
I WOULD FURTHER ADD THAT UNLESS YOU KNOW WHAT YOUR DOING YOU WOULD BE BETTER STICKING TO SATURDAY METROPOLITAN.

[umrum]

would that 11.90 winner be mighty Treasure the Kwila.

I got on aswell.

[Shaun]

Yep thats the one.....i use to do my own rateings and got some nice collects....and it is satisfying to know you selected the horse....but i find that time is something i don't have....and i think that with services like the wizard the provide just as good if not better than i could do....and it saves time as well.