I want a $2 Winner

[dodd]

Is it better to go for a $2 Win or a $2 Place?

Anybody reckon the chances are the same?

[umrum]

mathematically and theoretically they cant be the same chance.

a even money chance is rated 50% chance of finishing 1/field.

a even money place horse is given 50% chance of running 1,2,3/field.

I would say that they are different chances of occurring. Other more mathematically minded posters may be able to elaborate

[becareful]

Umrum,

I think he dodd meant is horse A that is $2.00 for a win the same chance of collecting as horse B that is $2.00 for the place.

In this case the answer (in the long run) is basically YES - the chances of A winning are essentially the same as B running a place.

If your only criteria is the price of the runner then you may as well go to the casino and put your money on Red/Black at the roulette wheel.

To make money you need to do your form study and work out what suits you best - some people prefer win betting, some place but neither one is necessarily better than the other.

[umrum]

cheers becareful. i thought because the place has three chances(i.e 1,2,3) it would be greater but can see it only relates to paying a dividend. Although $2 win there is more confidence than $2 place($8 win?)

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: umrum on 2003-07-30 14:01 ]</font>

[dodd]

I have seen plenty of races where the $2.00 for a win horse doesn't win, so I was thinking in this situation a couple of the 3rd or 4th favourites could be valued at $2.00 for a place with the chance of a chosen one sneaking in.
Do you think that TAB value is basically an equal chance for both?
I get the impression the $2.00 place over a number of bets would probably just be in front.
I need an expert in this!

[becareful]

Dodd,

As I said the chances of both are roughly the same so you will LOSE roughly the same amount on both unless you get a bit more serious with form study. Due to the "longshot bias" you will probably lose a bit less on the $2.00 win bets than the $2.00 place bets.

[dodd]

Do you think I would have a better chance at the casino playing red and black.
EG. I am going to place 10 bets on red, so I will probably win 5 and lose 5.
If I was going to place 10 bets on $2.00 wins at the races would you be confident of getting 5 of them right?
I know good strike rates on winners is usually about 30 odd percent, but I know you will be getting winners better than $2 wins in that instance.
Does anybody have info on the strike rate of horse win rates depending on their price or can guide me to somewhere that info is.
It would be very much appreciated.

[becareful]

Dodd,

The return depends on where you are placing your bets! For IAS Divi+ returns (or Sportingbets equivalent) the loss on backing all horses that start at $2.00 on the Victorian TAB is around 8% (if you back them on the TAB you will lose closer to 12%). Strike rate for these runners is a bit under 45%. So if you put $100 worth of bets on then ON AVERAGE you will get around $92 back in divs (so you will be down $8). If you did the same thing at the casino on Red or Black on the roulette wheel you would expect to get back around $97.

I am NOT suggesting you go to the casino instead - merely that you need to do a bit more work than just picking a horse because it is showing a price of $2.00. You can definitely make a profit on the short priced runners but you need to be more selective than simply backing all runners at the price.