Tipsy
31st August 2015, 04:41 PM
1) I say it's the divvy. The S/R for favourites hasn't changed since Adam was a lad, so one could assume the S/R for most of the popular methods of selecting potential winners hasn't changed either.
2) I strongly recommend anyone who hasn't read Punter57's longshot system to go and read it several times. There's some really good info there and some insights into just how the odd longshot manages to hit the line first against all odds (so to speak!). Some of the discussions emphasises the point that some horses are instantly dismissed as a chance because of poor form, when in fact there's a snifter of form, trainer placement or just plain bad luck with an unsuitable track.
3) I also recommend reading kenchar's posts, crash's posts. I'm sure there's many older posters gone because they're making money from the punt and cannot again go through the process of offering ideas for winning systems. There's enough info on this site to develop some winning systems and keep them as winning systems. Also the chat has changed dramatically from winning systems to laying/maths.
4) I firmly believe that a system needs to be logical. I disagree that a system needs only a few filters because it's got more chance of repeating. What if you're looking for a horse dropping in class?, combining an increase in weight, with a decrease in prizemoney and including the API ends up with three filters ..... but there's only one target.
5) Don't over look the fact that trainers make many mistakes before they get to know how good their horse is (most of them running around the country are useless and figuring which class they should be in is nigh on impossible, not that it would matter), but the good 'uns in the stable are targetted at a race in their right class, and if they're improvers obviously taken up a grade or two. Sometimes you can tell if the horse has potential by looking at the races the horse has previously been entered for, mebbe a Group 11 early on. Worth noting another way to lose is when a horse has run a mighty good race in town in good company and goes back to the bush as a short priced favourite and runs no-where ..... no system will tell you the horse had a gut buster of a run in town and was a flat as a sheet carters hat! Why doesn't the trainer know that?
6) You need to look where no-one else (or very few) are looking.
7) The whole racing industry is media driven, so believe half of what you see and none of what you hear.
8) There was a system discussed on here based on the pedigree of a horse to select the best one ..... in a filed of maidens. My humble apologies to the posters, Kiwi or Cosmos?, fascinating system and this poster is obviously doing well out of it!
9) I don't believe you can win with a system that relies on good form, weight advantage etc, that's where most look and they're under priced.
10) There are longshot systems that do win on paper but you need to be aware that your bet will reduce the odds thereby reducing the divvy!, you need to get set some other way that the local TAB. Who has the commitment and patience to absorb a long run of outs for the "certain" eventual winner. 0.0000000001% of us!
11) RIP Bart :) That's a smile for all the joy you've given us over your long reign.
2) I strongly recommend anyone who hasn't read Punter57's longshot system to go and read it several times. There's some really good info there and some insights into just how the odd longshot manages to hit the line first against all odds (so to speak!). Some of the discussions emphasises the point that some horses are instantly dismissed as a chance because of poor form, when in fact there's a snifter of form, trainer placement or just plain bad luck with an unsuitable track.
3) I also recommend reading kenchar's posts, crash's posts. I'm sure there's many older posters gone because they're making money from the punt and cannot again go through the process of offering ideas for winning systems. There's enough info on this site to develop some winning systems and keep them as winning systems. Also the chat has changed dramatically from winning systems to laying/maths.
4) I firmly believe that a system needs to be logical. I disagree that a system needs only a few filters because it's got more chance of repeating. What if you're looking for a horse dropping in class?, combining an increase in weight, with a decrease in prizemoney and including the API ends up with three filters ..... but there's only one target.
5) Don't over look the fact that trainers make many mistakes before they get to know how good their horse is (most of them running around the country are useless and figuring which class they should be in is nigh on impossible, not that it would matter), but the good 'uns in the stable are targetted at a race in their right class, and if they're improvers obviously taken up a grade or two. Sometimes you can tell if the horse has potential by looking at the races the horse has previously been entered for, mebbe a Group 11 early on. Worth noting another way to lose is when a horse has run a mighty good race in town in good company and goes back to the bush as a short priced favourite and runs no-where ..... no system will tell you the horse had a gut buster of a run in town and was a flat as a sheet carters hat! Why doesn't the trainer know that?
6) You need to look where no-one else (or very few) are looking.
7) The whole racing industry is media driven, so believe half of what you see and none of what you hear.
8) There was a system discussed on here based on the pedigree of a horse to select the best one ..... in a filed of maidens. My humble apologies to the posters, Kiwi or Cosmos?, fascinating system and this poster is obviously doing well out of it!
9) I don't believe you can win with a system that relies on good form, weight advantage etc, that's where most look and they're under priced.
10) There are longshot systems that do win on paper but you need to be aware that your bet will reduce the odds thereby reducing the divvy!, you need to get set some other way that the local TAB. Who has the commitment and patience to absorb a long run of outs for the "certain" eventual winner. 0.0000000001% of us!
11) RIP Bart :) That's a smile for all the joy you've given us over your long reign.