Backing Overs

[Shaun]

Now i know in the past i have been one to knock those that will only look for value and back overs, i have been giving this some thought and wonder how i would go just backing overs in all races, i am not talking my top 2 or 3 selections but the whole field and just backing those that exceed say 20% above my price and backing them to my prices.

Above all i know is when i get the ratings correct the prices reflect the chances, yes they are not always accurate and i get dismayed at how they perform at times but i am rock solid that i have my pricing model correct, sounds strange i can have 110% faith in the prices but not always the ratings themselves as the ratings dictate the prices.

I guess it depends on how many runners i end up backing per race and the prices i get, i may need some sort of cut off point, any thoughts on this idea welcome.

[Pat123]

Based on my betting history from the past 2+ years I can say it 100% works consistently. My graph upward trend is undeniable. This is all I do. Yes you'll have down swings every now and then but overall you'll end up on top. More on international racing, in comparison to Aus/NZ. Don't back though if the corresponding lay price is over 8.00

[darkydog2002]

Why not make the cut off point the 6th OPENING fav. of the bookies market.

Cheers

[Shaun]

Why not make the cut off point the 6th OPENING fav. of the bookies market.

Cheers

I have decided on a limit, must be rated at less than $15 by me, this reduces the number of selections to around 2-6 depending on field size and such, i am also dutching to my prices to get the best odds as all selections must be overs to begin with, will see how it goes.

Hey Pat, thanks for the input great to see it is possible.

[PaulD01]

I have decided on a limit, must be rated at less than $15 by me, this reduces the number of selections to around 2-6 depending on field size and such, i am also dutching to my prices to get the best odds as all selections must be overs to begin with, will see how it goes.

Hi Shaun

Perhaps look at it a different way. Rather than locking yourself into a strategy that limits when you can bet (“must be rated less than $15 by me”) why not think of value/overs as a minimum real percentage advantage that has to be achieved before you bet. For example if your rated probabilities total 100% and you decide that the minimum advantage you require is say ~5% in real terms (we work on slightly less) then at the following rated prices the odds you would need are:

Rated $2.00 can be bet at ~$2.25
Rated $3.00 can be bet at ~$3.60
Rated $5.00 can be bet at ~$6.50
Rated $10.00 can be bet at ~$20.00
Rated $15.00 can be bet at ~$60.00

Essentially the value/overs is the same for all the above examples, yet many punters would consider a dividend of $60.00 about a rated selection of $15.00 better value than $2.25 about a rated selection of $2.00 which is clearly not the case.

IMO another element worth considering is to then determine you own scale of confidence levels about each race you rate. Once complete I would recommend that you consider implementing a different size wager for each percentage point above your minimum advantage level if you know what I mean. Also for each confidence level apply a different Power Exponent so that your rated prices are more aggressive in the races in which you are most confident.

Hope that helps

[garyf]

Some interesting theories put forward here,
On how to back all overlays that you have in a race,
And make a motza of money.

If you are starting re post-4 then I wish,
You all the best & hope you make a stack.

Without giving an opinion let me post this scenario,
I am assuming your 1-2 3-4-5-6 picks etc are all profitable,
When backing overlays as there is no mention they are not.

Wish I could do that with mine.

Scenario-1.(1 MINUTE BEFORE JUMP).

SHAUN. MARKET.
1) 1.8. - 1.5.
2) 4.5. - 4.2.
3) 6.0. - 12.0.

Scenario-2.
SHAUN. MARKET.
1) 4.75 - 4.75.
2) 5.0. - 4.8.
3) 5.5. - 5.5.
4) 6.0. - 15.0..

Lets assume all other runners are,
The same or under your rated price,
In both scenarios.

The first scenario is a VIC-METRO,
Sat -race & the market percentage ,
Of all runners before jump is 109%.

The second scenario is a SYD-CNTRY,
MON-race & the market percentage,
Of all runners before jump is 158%.

So we happily back no's-3 in scenario one,
And no's-4 in scenario two & laugh all the,
Way to the bank as to how easy it is even,
Though the $6.0 chance is 3rd pick in scenario-1,
And 4th pick in scenario-2 forget our other chances,
In front of them or the top 1-2 market percentages,
In scenario-1 we can beat the market like the above.

Good luck with it all there is a way to possibly,
Do this but it needs much more work.

That's for another post & not from me.

Cheers.

[Shaun]

Gary, i get what you are saying, and in fact in the first scenario i would be backing the 1 and 3

I will explain in detail how i have set this up for betfair

I rate the entire field, any rated runner above my rated price of $15 is excluded, now we take a look at current prices, any runner that has a current price 20% above my rated price we keep, with the remainder i am dutching these at my prices, so if i have a runner rated @$3 but is paying $15 i dutch at the $3 price, so the value is in the difference between mine and there's

I couldn't tell you if the runners above 3rd position are profitable or not, don't have stats for those.

[garyf]

Betting within your top 1-2-3 is a much better idea what it,
Sounded like was bet any runner that you rated where there,
Was a 20%=> profit regardless of order.

Try to work all your "BETS" around what your "TOP-RATED" is,
Priced then what the "MARKET" is showing in comparison to,
That scenario & go from there, this is what I always do & have,
Done for many years.

You can then successfully work out what to do with the,
Others & whether you bet or not based on the top-rated & what is happening with that & the market comparison.
I record mine in three scenarios Underlay-Overlay-Same.

My top rated is put into categories (2.0-2.4)(2.5-2.9) (3.0-3.4)(3.5-3.9) etc
Then those" CATEGORIES" recorded as an overlay-underlay-same.

When I find winning price pockets I bet sometimes,
1st rated other times 1st-2nd even 1st-2nd-3rd,
All depending on what grouping the 1st rated is in.

I would think seeing your ratings posted before that something,
Like the above once sorted should be very profitable as you,
Are betting when your ratings & the market agree and are profitable,
Based on past historical prices, really it's the only way to check.

Do me a favour, don't fall into everything has to be an overlay,
To profit at racing garbage that's one way to win "NOT THE ONLY WAY"

You can add other data to improve it especially state CNTRY-METRO-PROV tracks.

Good Luck with it.

Cheers.
Garyf.

[beton]

If you are purely waiting to back overs on your ratings, then you are reducing the number of bets. And the number of profitable bets. And therefore the amount of profit available. If your rating system is profitable, find the flaws that leak the extra profit, rather than just go for overs.

[SpeedyBen]

Mark Read used to advocate backing the overs to return a fixed amount ( say 1000 ) and then multiply the bet by the overs fraction ( e.g 1.5 times the basic bet if you can get 6/1 about a rated 4/1 ).

[Puntz]

I don't have databases and so forth, but all these suggestions, trials etc, they come from the old school of punting days, where things were not as quick as they are today.
Today, the computers/internet and the speed of price updates/information; Does the strategy of yester-year work OK today,
given the fact the old school lads would or could not have forseen the technology and speed of price fluctuation on show ?

[Shaun]

I have given this ago over the last couple days but today was a big test in some ways.

I dutched 2 units at my prices per race.

Races 77
Winning 34
S/R 44.16%
U/Race 2 bet
A/U 3.11 win
A/Runners 3.38 per race
Some nice overs on a couple
Rated Backed
5. Civil Rights 9.32-- 17
12. Desert General 13-- 26
4. Nevagotavote 5.74-- 29
1. Remagen Bridge 7.57-- 16
8. Tillzale 6.15-- 17
13. Bellevue Avenue 14.96-- 22

[garyf]

I have given this ago over the last couple days but today was a big test in some ways.

I dutched 2 units at my prices per race.

Races 77
Winning 34
S/R 44.16%
U/Race 2 bet
A/U 3.11 win
A/Runners 3.38 per race
Some nice overs on a couple
Rated Backed
5. Civil Rights 9.32-- 17
12. Desert General 13-- 26
4. Nevagotavote 5.74-- 29
1. Remagen Bridge 7.57-- 16
8. Tillzale 6.15-- 17
13. Bellevue Avenue 14.96-- 22

Can someone help me.
I can't work out two of the abbreviations above.
Can someone give the total outlay return etc,
I get (strike/rate) (aver runners) but what's( U/RACE,)
(AU) can't work those two out,(L.O.L) been a long day I guess.


Cheers.

[Shaun]

All good mate, i could have put it better, the first is 2 Units bet each race, all runners are dutched in to this amount so all prices are worked out and the total bet equals 2 units

AU is average units won per race, so my average was 3.11 so i was getting a little over 50% profit on average per winning race, i suppose would have been easier to just workout the outlay and the return.

Outlay 154
Return 183.25
Profit 29.25
POT 18.99%