Interesting top weight betting system

[Neil]

Here is an interesting way of selectively betting top weighted horses in handicaps.

1. This betting system operates on metropolitan meetings in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide on Saturdays.

2. The horse must be top weight in a handicap. So eliminate weight for age races, classic races, set weight races and set weight with penalties races.

3. The horse must have won over the track and distance.

4. It must have finished 1st, 2nd, 3rd, or 4th. at its last run within the last 28 days.

That's it.

I checked last Saturday's Doomben races.

There were two bets:

Spot The Diff 1st. $2.35
Casual Choice 1st. $7.00

[Neil]

Here are Saturday's selections.

Caulfield
8/1 Charmed Harmony

Morphettville
1/1 Excites Zelady
4/1 Beautiful Flyer

[Neil]

Selection for Saturday, 23rd. April.

Morphettville
3/1 Silent Whisper

[Sands]

Moonee Valley, 26 Nov, R3 Estaminet

[Sands]

Morphettville, 26 Nov, R5 Casino Wizard

[Every Topic]

I have a top weight system but differs from what you have identified.
It hums along and always surprises me that it picks so many big price winners.
It is based on the simple idea that the handicapper knows a lot more about horse racing than I ever will.

And yes I use a few filters but these mainly relate to states and tracks as I have indicated before. It also filters out my voodoo tracks.

[kiwiz]

Star Exhibit would have qualified if Ascot included,,won,,26 Nov

[Sands]

Canterbury, 9 Dec, R2 Black On Gold

[Sands]

Rosehill, 10 Dec, R4 Alart

[Sands]

Morphettville, 17 Dec, R3 Pepper the Pin

[midas]

Hi BD1

Any paper race form explains the meaning of the terms t,d,and c, I think, quite clearly.

FLE 81 won $6.00

My last word on this subject so you can relax.

Midas

[UselessBettor]

Any paper race form explains the meaning of the terms t,d,and c, I think, quite clearly.

Its pretty simple and standard everywhere.

D= won at this distance at another track
T= won at this track but at a different distance
C= won at this track at this distance.
W= won on a wet track (any distance, any track).

You can have horses which show DTCW. or any combination of those 4 letters.

[Sands]

C= won at this track at this distance.

That's the way I'm reading it

[Sands]

Kenjorwood (Caulfield) looks to be the only qualifier yesterday
Winner R7

[Sands]

Doomben, 18 Jan, R6 Sentimental Prince

[dcpg]

Doomben, 18 Jan, R6 Sentimental Prince

Good win here, got through at the right time and kicked away.

[Sands]

Ascot, 28 Jan, R2 Dainty Tess

[dcpg]

Ascot, 28 Jan, R2 Dainty Tess

Held on to win here. You're doing well with the picks.

[kiwiz]

Counter Pulse
Karacatis
Both winners Morphettville Saturday

[Sands]

Flemington, 11 Mar, R7 Terravista

[kiwiz]

And another
Rosehill R2 Dothraki

[kiwiz]

Rosehill R1 Allergic

[kiwiz]

Delicate Miss looks like a qualifier
R3 Ascot Saturday

[Sands]

Flemington, 10 June, R4 De Little Engine

[Sands]

Flemington, 10 June, R4 De Little Engine
Alas, scratched. Did look a strong chance.

[byanose]

Alas, scratched. Did look a strong chance.
wonder why?
the money was coming for De Little Engine to make it a hat-trick of wins at Flemington

[rhino82]

wonder why?
the money was coming for De Little Engine to make it a hat-trick of wins at Flemington
Ben Thompson was wondering as well
Was to be one of his best rides
Still, one door closes another door opens
Got the late ride on Falago in the same race
Got the bickies 20/1

[Sands]

Belmont, 8 July, R5 Rosewood Hill

[Sands]

Caulfield, 15 July, R4 Kiwia

[beberrycareful]

I have a top weight system but differs from what you have identified.
It hums along and always surprises me that it picks so many big price winners.
It is based on the simple idea that the handicapper knows a lot more about horse racing than I ever will.

And yes I use a few filters but these mainly relate to states and tracks as I have indicated before. It also filters out my voodoo tracks.
have always wondered if the strike-rate for top weights is lower on wet tracks as compared to dry?

[UselessBettor]

have always wondered if the strike-rate for top weights is lower on wet tracks as compared to dry?

well wonder no more :

Good Tracks: Loss of 2.2% and 14.98% Strike Rate (16515 selections)
Wet Tracks : Profit of 5.8% and 14.81% Strike Rate (7379 selections)

Used Aus tracks only as Wet is very different in different countries.

So there you go top weights in the wet actually produce a profit because like you most people percieve the wet track hurts them but in reality its only a 0.2% difference of 1 - 2 horses per 1000 top weights which lose compared to the dry tracks.

But hey keep it a secret ... don't want others knowing these important stats.

Betfair SP prices used for analysis.

[kiwiz]

Temps Voleur looks like a qualifier
R3 Morphettville today

[kiwiz]

Jetoomy looks like a qualifier
R8 Belmont today
Same meeting,,Atlanta Blue,,equal topweight

[kiwiz]

Royal Symphony looks like a qualifier
R2 Flemington today

[kiwiz]

I Am a Star looks like a qualifier
R6 Flemington today

[kiwiz]

Almandin looks like a qualifier
R8 Flemington today

[kiwiz]

Almandin looks like a qualifier
R8 Flemington today
Winner,,Jetoomy (Perth) also won
And some others,,but weren't handicaps

[kiwiz]

Winner,,Cashed (Adelaide)

[kiwiz]

Bay Road,,winner Morphettville Sat,,looks like he qualified

[reinz]

2. The horse must be top weight in a handicap. So eliminate weight for age races, classic races, set weight races and set weight with penalties races.

3. The horse must have won over the track and distance.

4. It must have finished 1st, 2nd, 3rd, or 4th. at its last run within the last 28 days.


Showing a profit with a similar system but I don't bet those drawn middle to outside barriers on tracks better than dead

[grizzle]

silent sedition, wrinkly, private dancer, itz invincible, heart of a lion, lord topper & pinball wizard, all won for me recently

[STARRAFT]

1. This betting system operates on metropolitan meetings in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide on Saturdays.

2. The horse must be top weight in a handicap. So eliminate weight for age races, classic races, set weight races and set weight with penalties races.

3. The horse must have won over the track and distance.

4. It must have finished 1st, 2nd, 3rd, or 4th. at its last run within the last 28 days.

I always take into consideration the clear top weight in a race. Then I sometimes lay, sometimes back, or just ignore.

IMO the filters above are too restrictive. I consider all local meetings. Performance at the track rather than track & distance. And first-up record, if resuming.

Got a few winners Saturday including Redkirk Warrior, Morendi Hang, Sidetrip, Battle Hero, Spurcraft, Tisani Tomso, Choice Bro & Iconoclast

[STARRAFT]

Dothraki, Milwaukee, Exoteric, Epic Rant, Comfortable, Lota Creek Gold, Big Tomee, Chloride, Biscuit Time & Bend It Like Benny

[grizzle]

IMO the filters above are too restrictive. I consider all local meetings. Performance at the track rather than track & distance. And first-up record, if resuming.

sounds reasonable starraft & it looks like it's working for you

[STARRAFT]

it looks like it's working for you
Yep :)

[STARRAFT]

LOL
Keep laying gents :)

[nutz]

I always take into consideration the clear top weight in a race. Then I sometimes lay, sometimes back, or just ignore.

I consider all local meetings. Performance at the track rather than track & distance. And first-up record, if resuming.


Hi STARRAFT.

Negative for me when they're drawn wide
A positive when ridden by claiming apprentice in form, or with some previous good results on the same horse

[darkydog2002]

Like all these 1 horse a race systems .

Long term they only lead one to the poorhouse.

[westineast]

Like all these 1 horse a race systems .

Long term they only lead one to the poorhouse.
I have a number of "1 horse a race" systems in my armoury, so can have more than one bet in a race
Doing ok thankyou

[TWOBETS]

Like all these 1 horse a race systems .

Long term they only lead one to the poorhouse.


The bow you draw here Dark one is way too long. I've been living off punting for years now and I only have the ability to back one horse per race.

I believe you may not quite grasp the depth of angles one can approach this field. Just because one approach won't work for you, does not mean the subject has been exhausted.

[stixNstonez]

Did play around with Top Weights some time back. Mainly multiple betting. Had a number of filters, but best results came when restricting to those in the first four lines of the prepost market.

[armchairjock]

Use a number of filters when assessing the winning chance of a top weight
Won't divulge all but three key filters for me are
Distance up to and including 1400m
No apprentice jockey
UniTAB rating between 97 and 100

[demodocus]

Use a number of filters when assessing the winning chance of a top weight
........ three key filters for me are
Distance up to and including 1400m
No apprentice jockey
UniTAB rating between 97 and 100

A sensible place to start.

Sprint race, established rider, AND two other Ratings agencies "rate" the horse.

Then you refine their estimates. If it works, why not.

[CrazyHorse]

UniTAB rating between 97 and 100
A common element in a lot of my systems

[shaun1993]

Did play around with Top Weights some time back. Mainly multiple betting. Had a number of filters, but best results came when restricting to those in the first four lines of the prepost market.
Use a number of filters when assessing the winning chance of a top weight
Won't divulge all but three key filters for me are
Distance up to and including 1400m
No apprentice jockey
UniTAB rating between 97 and 100

Top Weight
In the first four lines of the prepost market
UniTAB rating between 97 and 100

[darkydog2002]

Thanks Shaun.

Will try it out.

Cheers,

[STARRAFT]

Clear top weighted horse down in class on previous start

[darkydog2002]

Hi STARRAFT,

Looks ok to me.

Thanks.

[POSEIDON]

I always take into consideration the clear top weight in a race. Then I sometimes lay, sometimes back, or just ignore.

Best horse in the race according to the handicapper, so yes, consider. However, the top-weight in a handicap is at a disadvantage, giving away weight. You need to consider the field strength. Just how disadvantaged is the horse relative to the field strength.

[darkydog2002]

True also.

Interestingly it was Warren Block who researched this factor and he was a non Bettor.

[STARRAFT]

You need to consider the field strength. Just how disadvantaged is the horse relative to the field strength.
Yep, already do this. Thanks.

[STARRAFT]

However, the top-weight in a handicap is at a disadvantage, giving away weight.
So you really don't want additional disadvantages. For the top-weight, also consider jockey pros & cons, suitability of race distance, barrier draw & likely speed map against the top-weights normal racing style.

[kiwiz]

So you really don't want additional disadvantages. For the top-weight, also consider jockey pros & cons, suitability of race distance, barrier draw & likely speed map against the top-weights normal racing style.
In my view also worth noting live weight v dead weight
The latter a disadvantage

[Sands]

In my view also worth noting live weight v dead weight
The latter a disadvantage
Another reason to penalise for an apprentice ?

[byanose]

Another reason to penalise for an apprentice ?
I wouldn't if the apprentice is riding well.

[Sands]

I wouldn't if the apprentice is riding well.
Yep, that would work for me

[justinfront]

I wouldn't if the apprentice is riding well.
fancied top-weight ridden by in-form apprentice - BONUS!