Big Value Favourites Betting System

[Neil]

This simple betting system has produced interesting results whenever I have checked it over the last 30 or so years.

The aim is to back winning favourites at odds higher than the long term winning percentage of favourites.

It operates on Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide Saturday metropolitan meetings.

Using a good form guide with reliable pre post betting odds, back the favourite that has the highest pre post betting odds. If there are 2 favourites selected by this rule, then back them both. With 3 or more give the meeting a miss.

What I have noticed is that actual betting odds can vary quite wildly from these pre post odds.

As I am going into hospital for a few days - last time it turned into 9 days - I will probably be pretty quiet on the Forum and also unable to answer any questions, as I will most likely be very tired and sleeping most of the time when I do get back home.

Here are Saturday's results using the Winning Post for the odds.

Randwick:
Santa Ana Lane 2nd. $10.00

Sandown:
Zahspeed 1st. $5.20

Doomben:
Dee Nine Elle 2nd. $3.70

Morphettville:
Gingerboy: 3rd. $2.70

[jimmyz]

Cheers Neil. All the best mate.

[Shaun]

I like some of these little systems, maybe combine a couple together, this one with the shortest priced fav would give you plenty of action, i notice just about all are set around the Sat racing, this is a good idea but would be nice to test some of these mid week, just need that reliable online prices to use, have to work on that.

[walkermac]

Good luck in the hospital, Neil.


Your post reminded me of some of the work that Rinconpaul (and beton?) shared on the forum. Somewhere around here there is:

* a "% Win SR Ready Reckoner" spreadsheet: given the price of the favourite, it gives each price-ranked runner's historical chance of winning. That is, if a favourite is $2 it has on average a 42% chance of winning (bookmaker overround presumably), the 2nd fave has a 20% chance of winning, and so on. Per Neil's post, he's really looking for favourites priced at greater than 30% ($3.33) - the long-term odds of favourites winning (ignoring field size/race class) - and limited his outlay to the most extreme chance (the longest-priced favourite at a race meeting). With the Reckoner you could also search for 2nd/3rd/4th faves longer than their historical odds. I think Rinconpaul's prices were from Betfair and he'd be endeavouring to react just before the jump, rather than far ahead of time. (http://www.ozmium.com.au/forums/showthread.php?t=26513&highlight=ready+reckoner)

* a "StartingPrice_vs_WinSR" word document. For a given field size it gives the historical strike rate of each price ranking. So in an 8-horse field, you could be betting on 3rd faves if their price is greater than $5.97, to stay ahead of historical trends

* "Place Ready Reckoner": For the favourite in a given field size, back if its place odds are longer than the historical average (e.g. in an 8-horse field where the fave is in the "average" range of $1.80-$3.40, only back the favourite for a place so long as you're getting more than $1.37)


I never used the files myself (were the others from the monster "DNA of a Longshot Winner" thread?) and I think Rinconpaul was more concerned with the lay side of things, so be cautious and happy hunting :)

[Neil]

Thanks.

Here are Saturday's bets using the Winning Post again.

Caulfield:

8/1 Charmed Harmony $6.00
9/8 Sunday Escape $6.00

Randwick:
6/3 Target In Sight $4.40

Morphettville:
8/3 October Date $6.50
8/20 Segregation $6.50

[Neil]

Thanks.

Here are Saturday's bets using the Winning Post again.

Caulfield:

8/1 Charmed Harmony $6.00
9/8 Sunday Escape $6.00

Randwick:
6/3 Target In Sight $4.40

Morphettville:
8/3 October Date $6.50
8/20 Segregation $6.50

Here are today's bets using this morning's Herald Sun newspaper.

Caulfield
No bets as Sunday Escape, Ruettiger and Shades Of Bella were all $6.00 favourites in R9.

Randwick
1/7 Touch Sensitive $4.80
6/11 Music Magnate $4.80

Morphettville
No nets as Howard Be Thy Name in R7 and October Date and Segregation in R8 were all $5.50.

[Neil]

Music Magnate won at $5.50.

[Neil]

Results for 23rd. April using Saturday morning's Herald Sun for odds.

Caulfield
Invincible Heart $4.80 -
Stoker $4.80 -

Rosehill
Impending $4.20 1st. $4.00, TF $5.00
Gretna $4.20 -

Morphettville
No bets as there were 3 selections, but Silent Edition won at $3.10, TF odds $4.00

[Neil]

Selections for 30th. April using Saturday morning's Herald Sun for odds.

Caulfield:
9/1 Entre Nous

Doomben:
7/1 Too Good To Refuse
7/5 Cylinder Beach

Morphettville:
7/10 Rationality

[Vortech]

[QUOTE=Neil]Selections for 30th. April using Saturday morning's Herald Sun for odds.

Caulfield:
9/1 Entre Nous - Unplaced

Doomben:
7/1 Too Good To Refuse - 2nd
7/5 Cylinder Beach - 1st $4.70 Unitab

Morphettville:
7/10 Rationality - unplaced

[Neil]

Selections for 30th. April using Saturday morning's Herald Sun for odds.

Caulfield:
9/1 Entre Nous 4th. $6.00

Doomben:
7/1 Too Good To Refuse $6.50, 2nd. by a half head.
7/5 Cylinder Beach 1st. $5.50 SP, TF $6.00 Also a nice quinella.

Morphettville:
7/10 Rationality Unpl. $4.20

[Neil]

Here are the selections for 7th. May using Saturday morning's Herald Sun for odds.

Flemington:
9/2 Gabella $4.80 scratched

Rosehill:
9/3 Montauk $6.00, 4th. $4.40.
9/11 Moher $6.00, 1st. $5.40 tote, SP $4.80, TF $8.00!

Morphettville:
7/18 Don't Doubt Mamma $6.50, unpl. $7.50.

[Neil]

Selections for Saturday, 14th. May using the Winning Post for the odds.

Caulfield
9/1 Nevis

Doomben
6/8 Lordag

Morphettville
3/2 Edgewood
3/7 Victory Downs

[Neil]

Selections for Saturday, 14th. May using the Winning Post for the odds.

Caulfield
9/1 Nevis

Doomben
6/8 Lordag

Morphettville
3/2 Edgewood
3/7 Victory Downs

Using Saturday morning's Herald Sun odds.

Caulfield
5/12 Better Land

Doomben
6/3 Jumbo Prince

Morphettville
5/9 Award Of Merit
3/7 Victory Downs

[Neil]

A number of the systems have been doing vey well since I posted them, like this one which had 2 bets and picked up $10.00 SP winner Hursley at Caulfield on Saturday.

[Neil]

Still doing well when I check.

Using the odds from Saturday's Herald Sun winners on Saturday were:

Hursley $5.00 SP at Caulfield
Sagaronne $3.70 SP at Doomben

[kiwiz]

Flemington R6 N10 Oak Door
Rosehill R8 N11 Hogmanay N13 Kadinsky
Morphettville R4 N10 Alaskan Jade R8 N6 Big Effort

[kiwiz]

Moonee Valley R7 N3 Dane Thunder N7 Lunar Spin

[kiwiz]

Canterbury R5 N5 Murraguldrie

[demodocus]

The aim is to back winning favourites at odds higher than the long term winning percentage of favourites.

It operates on Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide Saturday metropolitan meetings.

Using a good form guide with reliable pre post betting odds, back the favourite that has the highest pre post betting odds. If there are 2 favourites selected by this rule, then back them both. With 3 or more give the meeting a miss.

What I have noticed is that actual betting odds can vary quite wildly from these pre post odds.



Neil, something to think about ........

There needs to be some incorporation of Field Size in your assessment.

EXAMPLE USING FAVOURITES:

Field.....WSR.......TAB
8..........35.33.....2.50
9..........32.95.....2.64
10........32.15.....2.83
11........29.00.....2.99
12........28.15.....3.03
13........27.21.....3.22
14........26.68.....3.27

Sample: 190,924 Saturday Metro races, all Going, All distances.

Other than that I reckon your approach is well founded.

[kiwiz]

Ascot R5 N8 More Aces
Caulfield R9 Lake Como
Toowoomba R9 Fiery Heights
Morphettville R4 Gogo Grace
Randwick R2 Hussterical

[kiwiz]

Belmont R7 N4 War Jeune
Eagle Farm R8 N3 Heroic Valour
Morphettville R7 N2 Snake Charmer & N5 Affray
Randwick R5 N4 My True Love
Sandown R2 N13 Galaxy Raider & N15 Rillito

[Jack]

Hi kiwiz - Whos pre post betting odds do you use ?

[kiwiz]

Depends what's available at the time Jack
For the last lot of selections I may have used either sportsbet or Luxbet

[kiwiz]

Belmont R7 N4 War Jeune
Eagle Farm R8 N3 Heroic Valour
Morphettville R7 N2 Snake Charmer & N5 Affray
Randwick R5 N4 My True Love
Sandown R2 N13 Galaxy Raider & N15 Rillito
War Jeune 1st
Heroic Valour Scr
Snake Charmer 2nd Affray Unpl
My True Love 1st
Galaxy Raider Unpl Rillito 1st

[jimmyz]

Let's see how this goes midweek

Canterbury 6/5 Super Star Bob
Gawler 2/1 Inneston
Geelong 7/1 Sammy The Snake
Sunshine Coast 6/2 Balabina
Belmont ABANDONED

[theshoe]

Randwick:
Super Star Bob 3rd. $4.20

Caulfield:
Theanswermyfriend 2nd. $5.00

Doomben:
Ahndras 2nd. $4.00

Belmont:
Atlanta Blue 3rd. $4.40

[theshoe]

Morphettville:
Go The Journey 3rd. $4.60

Rosehill:
Bonny O'Reilly 5th. $4.00

Moonee Valley:
Bonneval 1st. $5.50

Doomben:
Casino Thoughts 4th. $4.60

Belmont:
Burning Magic 4th. $4.40

[theshoe]

Rosehill:
Omei Sword 3rd. $4.20

Caulfield:
Stampede 3rd. $4.40 Amelie's Star 4th. $4.40

Belmont:
Amaliemoo 5th. $4.80

Morphettville:
Star Wars 3rd. $5.00

[theshoe]

Let's see if there is any joy tomorrow

Ipswich:
R6 Splitter $3.60 Sicario $3.60

Rosehill:
R8 Dortmund $4.70 Gaulois $4.70

Flemington:
R3 Falika $4.80 Gold Blush $4.80

Balaklava:
R7 Zolotoi $4.20

Belmont:
R4 Sealed With a Kiss $4.40

Launceston:
R1 Flikpix $3.70

[theshoe]

Randwick:
Vega Magic 2nd.

Caulfield:
Jorda 3rd.

Doomben:
Karakabeel 8th.

Bunbury:
Kaapander 4th.

Morphettville:
Invisible Girl 1st.

[theshoe]

21 Oct

Randwick:
She Knows 1st. White Moss 1st.

Caulfield:
Pinot 1st.

Doomben:
Meeting abandoned R4 onwards.

Ascot:
Salorsci 10th.

Morphettville:
Miss Identified 1st.

[theshoe]

28 Oct

Randwick:
Ready For Danger 4th.

Moonee Valley:
It’s Somewhat 3rd.

Doomben:
Fiery Heights 1st.

Ascot:
War Jeune 2nd.

Morphettville:
Mitrust 4th.

[theshoe]

4 Nov

Rosehill:
Sirens Fury 4th.

Flemington:
Ace High 1st.

Doomben:
Valfierno 7th.

Ascot:
Shafto Lane 7th.

Morphettville:
Chapel City 1st.

[theshoe]

11 Nov

Rosehill:
Roseito 2nd.

Flemington:
Meet And Greet 7th.

Doomben:
Grim Reaper 2nd.

Ascot:
Trap For Fools 1st. Celebrity Dream 2nd.

Morphettville:
It And A Bit 3rd.

[theshoe]

18 Nov

Rosehill:
Slow Burn 2nd.

Sandown:
Yulong Xingsheng 1st.

Doomben:
Brac Teate 4th.

Ascot:
Star Value 3rd.

Morphettville:
Street Embrace 2nd.

[theshoe]

25 Nov

Rosehill:
Mornington 4th. Miss Dubois 1st.

Ballarat:
Etah James 1st. Lycurgus 4th.

Doomben:
Sylpheed 3rd.

Ascot:
Achernar Star 2nd.

Morphettville:
All Bar Two 3rd.

[theshoe]

16 Dec

Randwick:
Irish Bet 1st.

Caulfield:
Holy Freeze 4th.

Doomben:
I’m A Rippa 1st. Care To Think 1st.

Ascot:
Star Value 1st.

Morphettville:
Enki 4th.

[theshoe]

13 Jan

Randwick:
Newtown Bluebag 1st. General Harmony 4th.

Flemington:
Strykinglee 3rd.

Gold Coast:
Suggan Buggan 2nd.

Ascot:
Gunnago 3rd.

Gawler:
Mysticano 1st.

[theshoe]

3 Feb

Rosehill:
High Opinion 1st.

Caulfield:
Malaise 5th.

Doomben:
Susurri 1st.

Ascot:
Vital Dancer 3rd. Royal Missile 1st.

Morphettville:
Regal Spur 1st.

[theshoe]

10 Feb

Warwick Farm:
Xebec 3rd. Fickle Folly 1st.

Caulfield:
Plague Stone 2nd.

Doomben:
I’m A Ripper 2nd.

Pinjarra:
Stoicism 2nd. Epic Grey 1st.

Morphettville:
Betalyk 5th.

[theshoe]

24 Feb

Rosehill:
I Am Excited 1st.

Caulfield:
Written By 1st.

Doomben:
Meeting Postponed.

Ascot:
Zip Zam Zoom 4th.

Morphettville:
Regal Spur 9th.

[theshoe]

14 July

Rosehill:
Jolly Honour 1st. Laussel 5th.

Caulfield:
Street Sheik 4th.

Sunshine Coast:
Raiden 5th.

Belmont:
Max Almighty 2nd.

Morphettville:
Hard Empire 1st. Lady Soma 2nd.

[horsewithnoname]

Using a good form guide with reliable pre post betting odds, back the favourite that has the highest pre post betting odds. If there are 2 favourites selected by this rule, then back them both. With 3 or more give the meeting a miss.

Considering pre-post favourites can be a good starting point but you still need to do further homework

[theshoe]

29 June

Rosehill:
Azuro 1st.

Caulfield:
Miss Norway 4th.

Sunshine Coast:
Bella Success 6th.

Belmont:
Moschard 1st.

Morphettville:
Blow Torch 2nd.