Highest Strike Rate Betting System I Know...

[Neil]

This simple betting system gives you one bet in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane each Saturday.

While the horses are at short odds, in the past it has had an exceptional winning strike rate.

You need nothing more than a Saturday morning newspaper or reliable Saturday morning prices on the internet.

The horse to back at each meeting is the one quoted at the shortest price at each meeting.

Last Saturday there were two bets. Of course we left Mornington alone.

The two horses both won. They were:

Kaiser Franz $2.60 at Doomben and Winx $1.80 at Randwick.

[Shaun]

Why only Saturday?

[Neil]

Because over the years I've only followed Saturday results.

[UselessBettor]

What is the strike rate ?

I hope its close to 90% or higher.

[Neil]

Just checked the results for Saturday, 26th. March, using the morning newspaper.

Caulfield:
Petits Filous 1st. $1.90

Rosehill:
It's Somewhat 1st. $1.75

Doomben:
Sir Moments $2.10 3rd.

That was a POT of over 20%.

I've been asked what the strike rate is. Let's just say whenever I've followed this system it has been very high. I've posted results for the last 2 Saturdays - 4 winners from 5 bets.

[Pauls123]

Hi Neil,

Very interesting, and takes only a couple of minutes to work out, then the day is your own again. I must check online papers as I never buy a paper. But I do recall looking at IAS Prices on Saturday morning and Winx was about $2.10 and Tarzino was about $1.85.

Regards, Paul

[Neil]

Pauls123, for obvious reasons I wouldn't trust bookies pre post prices.

In the Winning Post Winx was $1.85. I think I also may have used Saturday's Herald Sun, but I've thrown the paper out.

If there are slight differences I don't think it should matter - swings and roundabouts.

[enjay]

Hey Paul....

Try this. http://dailytel.newspaperdirect.com/epaper/viewer.aspx

Not sure if they change it every day, but let me know if they do.

Norm

[Shaun]

I would just Use Racingandsports prices

[aferw]

I use "ActivePaper" on line, and found these for past 3 weeks.

19th'3
rosehill 5 5 winx … 1.65 … 1st $1.90 $1.10
doomben 2 3 kaiser franz … 2.35 … x

26th
caulfield 4 1 petits filous … 1.65 … 1st $2.00 $1.20
rosehill 8 2 solict … 2.5 … x
doomben 1 1 I'm belucci … 2.6 … 2nd 1.30

2nd'4
randwick 3 1 libran … 1.65 … 1st $2.10 1.20
randwick 9 3 winx … 1.65 … 1st $1.70 1.40
doomben 4 7 pinch river .. 2.5 .. x

[aferw]

Upped the % to higher. Include Adelaide. Passing on a couple of 100%, Syd Suspense. Bris Elegant composure

sandown 7 3 sheidel. 3.5
morphet 1 10 cocoa doll . 2.8
morphet 7 1 thames court . 2.8

[Pauls123]

what do you mean 100%

[aferw]

Sorry Pauls in the wrong thread...

[Vortech]

Another system sending punters straight to the poor house.

You would have more success laying these horses imo

[Neil]

Here are today's 3 bets based on prices from this morning's Saturday Herald Sun.

Best tote odds are used.

Randwick: Japonisme $3.40 1st.

Doomben: Elegant Composure $2.10 1st.

Sandown: French Emotion and Charlevoix were both quoted at $2.10
Charlevoix won at odds of $2.90 and French Emotion finished second starting at $2.35. With a tie for shortest odds I think it is probably best to not bet.

[Pauls123]

Nice result there Neil,

Maybe I best invest in buying a Saturday paper

[Neil]

Thanks Pauls123.

This system, using a reliable Saturday morning newspaper form guide, has consistently produced a very high winning strike rate.

Though as we all know while past results are a very good indicator of future results, nothing is guaranteed in racing!

[michaelg]

I've looked at yesterday's other meetings and used the market in the Daily Telegraph and the divvies shown on Unitab. The results are:

Newcastle
2/1 - Won $2.40

Coffs
4/7 - Won $2.20

Morphetville
4/7 - Won $2.30

Bendigo
1/10 - Second $1.40

Ascot
Won - $1.90.

[CosMos]

Haven't got the dividends but looked at yesterdays results from NZ, Ireland and United Kingdom just for fun. Morning odds from R&S

New Zealand:
Te Aroha R5 Chenille 3rd
Trentham R1 Beefeater 2nd
Riverton R7 Miss Three Stars 1st

Ireland:
Gowran Park R7 Radanpour 2nd

United Kingdom:
Aintree R3 Douvan 1st
Chepstow R2 3rd
Lingfield no single selection
Wolverhampton R5 Magical Path 2nd
Sedgefield R2 Mardale 1st

[Neil]

I've looked at yesterday's other meetings and used the market in the Daily Telegraph and the divvies shown on Unitab. The results are:

Newcastle
2/1 - Won $2.40

Coffs
4/7 - Won $2.20

Morphetville
4/7 - Won $2.30

Bendigo
1/10 - Second $1.40

Ascot
Won - $1.90.

Great results.

If a punter is relying on dividends from just one state when betting then that punter is putting himself at a massive disadvantage. It's bad enough to turn wagers that could make long term profits into long term losses.

[Shaun]

Would these prices be accurate as pre post prices?
http://www.racingandsports.com.au/en/form-guide/racefields.asp?meetingid=75314

[Pauls123]

Yesterday morning, before I headed off to play Pennants bowls, I checked the prices on R&S.

Come up with Doomben R3 No.3 Primal Flight quoted at $2.40 - unplaced

Randwick R1 No. 1 Prized Icon quoted at $2.30,......1st paid $2.80

Sandown R6 No 1 Cool Chat quoted at $2.10, second.

R&S prices do seem to vary from the papers, with your stats might have to stick to the papers.

Paul

[Shaun]

Surely there must be a reliable source online for PPP, i know the WA tab has there form but i would rather a proper site version, W2B used to have a good service but they have changed and from what i can see now quote bookie prices.

[michaelg]

Out of interest today's Daily Telegraph selections (a massive 20) are:

Gundagai
7/6

Port Augusta ($3 fave)
1/7
2/3
3/4
4/1
5/2
6/2
7/4
8/1

Pakenham ($2.50 fave)
1/4
3/2

Sunshine Coast ($3.50 fave)
1/4
4/3
5/2

Echuca ($3.00 fave)
1/4
2/5
3/3
4/4
6/9

Mudgee
3/2

[Shaun]

Out of interest today's Daily Telegraph selections (a massive 20) are:

Gundagai
7/6

Port Augusta ($3 fave)
1/7
2/3
3/4
4/1
5/2
6/2
7/4
8/1

Pakenham ($2.50 fave)
1/4
3/2

Sunshine Coast ($3.50 fave)
1/4
4/3
5/2

Echuca ($3.00 fave)
1/4
2/5
3/3
4/4
6/9

Mudgee
3/2


Are they all equal favs? because i thought was supposed to be only the lowest prices fav.

[michaelg]

Yes, the method is to bet the lowest price fave according to the/any newspaper per venue. But today there is no sole lowest price fave at some venues. For example, at Port Augusta the lowest price fave in all the eight races is $3.00. I looked at a previous day where at a particular venue there were 5 selections, 3 won for a total TAB return of $5.10. I assume Neil would have said to delete any venue if there was more than one selection but as nothing was mentioned I decided to test it. Time will tell...

[Shaun]

Yes, the method is to bet the lowest price fave according to the/any newspaper per venue. But today there is no sole lowest price fave at some venues. For example, at Port Augusta the lowest price fave in all the eight races is $3.00. I looked at a previous day where at a particular venue there were 5 selections, 3 won for a total TAB return of $5.10. I assume Neil would have said to delete any venue if there was more than one selection but as nothing was mentioned I decided to test it. Time will tell...

All good, i just wasn't sure by your post, so looking at the original rules there would be just 2 selections.

[aferw]

I remember trying this out last year, and I could not make a go of it. But I was only trying midweek not looking at saturday metro.

Someone last year posted similar system (was it d'dog), but instead of the shortest price at each meeting, it was the shortest overall. So left with 1 bet.

Here what I found today using the wa site

geraldton 4 1 fo' shizzle 2.00
echuca 5 1 melanion 2.5
gundagai 7 6 lord de air 2.5
sscoast 6 2 dream speed 3
mudgee 3 2 sir plush 1.5

[darkydog2002]

Nice one Neil.
Will add it to my list of winning systems.
Cheers.

[michaelg]

The UNITAB divvies from the two venues where there was only one selection are:

Mudgee
3/2 - won $1.30

Gundagai
7/6 - won $2.10.

[darkydog2002]

Cant get better than that.

[peter m]

Someone last year posted similar system (was it d'dog) I think it was mentioned by Darkydog as the De Grey system. I have a copy of it. Can't even remember where or how I acquired it. The one I've got is called 'A Touch of Genius' by Micheal de Grey published by the House of Montague circa 1989. Apparently the original was even older named 'The Isolator'

I think the House of Montague was the fictitious entity from where quite a few systems were sold by a Gold Coast con man. Whose name was Michael by a freak coincidence.

Anyway, that's all just for historical reference re old systems and the hyperbolic turn of phrase they used to market them .

The rules were, lowest pre-post fav at each meeting, no equal favourites.
I must admit that I never followed it so don't know how it would pan out

[michaelg]

Today's selections as per the Telegraph market are:

Goulburn
2/2

Taree
3/1

[Shaun]

Will be interesting as i am running a test using R&S prices for the week.

[peter m]

Forgot to mention that the original system was Saturday only.

I did a few spot checks last night using a few old Telegraph pre post prices midweek and it didn't look too flash, but I only looked at few odd days.

Maybe R&S pre post may be more accurate or it could be swings and roundabouts.

[michaelg]

I would assume the Tele has more accurate prices only because R & S prices are calculated two days prior but the Tele the day/night before. This is purely an assumption.

[michaelg]

Today's results:

Goulburn
2/2 - won $3.10

Taree
3/1 - won $1.90

[darkydog2002]

We are on a Winner there MichaelG.

Thats 4 /4 .

And who said we all need a expensive Data Base.

Cheers
darky

[michaelg]

Today's Telegraph selections are:

Gosford
2/3

Murwillumbah
3/2

[michaelg]

Today's results:

Gosford
2/3 - won $1.80

Murwillumbah
3/2 - won $2.00

[michaelg]

Today's Telegraph selections are:

Warwick Farm
1/1

Pinjarra
1/6

Ballarat
3/1

[michaelg]

Yesterday's two selections were beaten (one placed). Today's Telegraph selections:

Bunbury
7/5

Wangaratta
4/7

[michaelg]

Yesterday's selections lost but it placed. Today's selections:

Grafton
5/4

Ipswich
6/6

Werribee
2/3

I'll look at the dogs with the method:

The Gardens
8/6

Geelong
5/4

Bulli
2/5


If you are going to continue with greyhound selections, please post these in the correct forum. Moderator.

[michaelg]

Today's results:

Ipswich
6/6 - scratched

Werribee
2/3 - second $1.80

Grafton
5/4
Won - $2.70 & $1.40.

[michaelg]

Today's Telegraph selections:

Randwick
1/1

Caulfield
3/8

Kembla
3/1

Queanbeyan
3/1

Narromine
3/3

Toowoomba
7/3


Yesterday's greyhound results:

The Gardens
Won - $1.80 & $1.20

Geelong
Second $1.00

Bulli
Won - $2.70 & $2.00

[michaelg]

Correction - the Randwick selection is 3/1 not 1/1.

[Neil]

Today's bets based on this morning's Herald Sun are:

Caulfield
3/8 French Emotion $2.20

Randwick
3/1 Old North $2.00

[Vortech]

2 Lays 2 Wins!

Winner Winner chicken

[aferw]

Todays using Wa site.

caulfield 1 5 sly romance 2f
toowoo 1 2 ruling force 2.10f
morphet 2 1 high church 2.25f
queanbyn 1 1 kalia 2.1f
k.grange 1 1 red extension 1.65f
g.coast 8 6 unassuming 2.8f
narromine 6 3 neza thief 2f

Sr 3 1 was 2nd fav, Yankie Rose was fav which later cr.

[aferw]

Todays using Wa site.

caulfield 1 5 sly romance 2f 1st 3.30
toowoo 1 2 ruling force 2.10f 1st 3.70
morphet 2 1 high church 2.25f 1st 2.70
queanbyn 1 1 kalia 2.1f 2nd 2.10
k.grange 1 1 red extension 1.65f 2nd 2.20
g.coast 8 6 unassuming 2.8f scr
narromine 6 3 neza thief 2f 1st 1.30-1.10

Sr 3 1 was 2nd fav, Yankie Rose was fav which later scr.

After nice day yesterday and past week, I looked back to 1st april.
I also noticed that if multi selections in the one venue take the 1st race with the lowest price. Excluded perth.
If selection scr, then that was it.

Anyway attached if anyone wants to look. Will stick to saturday metro
(tattsbet prices)

[Neil]

Todays using Wa site.

caulfield 1 5 sly romance 2f
toowoo 1 2 ruling force 2.10f
morphet 2 1 high church 2.25f
queanbyn 1 1 kalia 2.1f
k.grange 1 1 red extension 1.65f
g.coast 8 6 unassuming 2.8f
narromine 6 3 neza thief 2f

Sr 3 1 was 2nd fav, Yankie Rose was fav which later cr.

Sly Romance 1st. $3.50
High Church 1st. $2.90

Ruling Force 1st. $3.70
Kalia 2nd. $4.00
Red Extension 1st. $2.20
Unassuming scratched
Heza Thief 1st.$1.60


Excellent results.

However, as the system rules state, "This simple betting system gives you one bet in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane each Saturday." There's a very good reason for this. Over the years the results elsewhere have been inferior.

[aferw]

I do remember this from years back and just found it. But is daily.
http://www.ozmium.com.au/forums/showthread.php?t=23643

But sticking to saturday metro is so far the better option.
From 19th'3 .. 13 races so far.
Adelaide is 3 from 3 at present

[Neil]

I do remember this from years back and just found it. But is daily.
http://www.ozmium.com.au/forums/showthread.php?t=23643

But sticking to saturday metro is so far the better option.
From 19th'3 .. 13 races so far.
Adelaide is 3 from 3 at present

That method may be daily. There are systems and there are systems.

But not the method I worked out and used for some of my wagering over 30 years ago after noticing for an extended period of time the high strike rate of short priced prepost favourites in Saturday morning's newspaper.

It's Saturday only!

There are plenty of reasons why for example Monday and Tuesday racing will produce inferior results.

1. There are often many more unknowns in the race, which means that short priced prepost favourite could be well under the odds.

2. We are often dealing with a field full of inconsistent animals.

3. Your short priced favourite is more likely to finish an unlucky 2nd. or 3rd. thanks to bad luck because of an inferior ride by by a bush standard jockey instead of a good city standard jockey.

[Neil]

Using odds from the Winning Post.

Selections for Saturday, 23rd. April.

Caulfield
3/5 Raw Impulse

Rosehill
1/3 Reincarnate

[aferw]

Using Wa site, including adelaide

caulfield 5 1 she's miss devine
rosehill 1 3 reincarnate
morphet 1 4 killarney kid

[michaelg]

Today's Telegraph selections:

Rusehill
1/3

Caulfield
3/5

Sunshine Coast
6/1

[Neil]

Monday's results at Flemington and Randwick, using odds from the Herald Sun.

Flemington
Miss Vista 1st. $2.35, TF $2.40

Randwick
Peacock 1st. $1.90, $2.15 TF.
Lady Le Fay 1st. $2.00, TF $2.20
Both were quoted at odds of $2.70 in the paper.

[aferw]

Ok getting confused with all these new systems. Im just sticking to 2 of them. Just look now (been away lg w'end).
Todays I had/would of had
flemingotn 8 7 supido @ 1.8
randwick 1 1 via napoli @ 2.5

[Neil]

Ok getting confused with all these new systems. Im just sticking to 2 of them. Just look now (been away lg w'end).
Todays I had/would of had
flemingotn 8 7 supido @ 1.8
randwick 1 1 via napoli @ 2.5

In this morning's Melbourne Herald Sun, which has proven itself over many years to have good prepost markets, Supido was $2.10, but Miss Vista was $1.95.

However, Supido was a nice $2.70 winner.

Via Napoli was $3.20 in this morning's Melbourne Herald Sun while Peacock and Lady Le Fay were both quoted at odds of $2.70.

Via Napoli was also a good $2.70 winner with TF at $3.10.

[Neil]

Using odds from Saturday morning's Herald Sun.

Selections for Saturday, 30th. April.

Caulfield
4/4 She's Miss Devine

Doomben:
6/1 Fell Swoop

[aferw]

Using wa site
30th
caulfield 1 1 lahqa
doomben 6 1 fell swoop
morphet 4 7 smart manoeuvre

[Neil]

Using odds from Saturday morning's Herald Sun.

Selections for Saturday, 30th. April.

Caulfield
4/4 She's Miss Devine

Doomben:
6/1 Fell Swoop

She's Miss Devine unpl.
Fell Swoop 1st. $1.55

[Neil]

Selections for Saturday, 7th. May using Winning Post markets.

Flemington
5/7 Supido

Rosehill
6/3 Start Wondering

[aferw]

Fridays Courier Mail has same as winning post

Wa site
fleming 1 1 merriest

[Neil]

Selections for Saturday, 7th. May using Winning Post markets.

Flemington
5/7 Supido

Rosehill
6/3 Start Wondering

Selections for Saturday, 7th. May using Saturday morning Herald Sun markets.

Flemington
5/7 Supido 1st. $1.55, TF $1.80

Rosehill
6/3 Start Wondering unpl. $2.50

Morphettville - Adelaide has been doing much better than 30 years ago.
1/3 Killarney Kid 1st. $1.70

[Neil]

Selections for Saturday, 14th. May. Winning Post odds used.

Caulfield
1/5 Raw Impulse

Doomben
2/9 Inz'n'out

[aferw]

14th
WA site

mr 1 5 raw impulse
ar 4 1 rageese


Fridays Courier Mail also has R2 2 another whiskey

[Neil]

Selections for Saturday, 14th. May. Winning Post odds used.

Caulfield
1/5 Raw Impulse

Doomben
2/9 Inz'n'out

Using Saturday morning's Herald Sun odds.

Caulfield
1/5 Raw Impulse

Doomben
2/2 Another Whiskey

[aferw]

14th
WA site

mr 1 5 raw impulse 1st 1.10
ar 4 1 rageese scr


Fridays Courier Mail also has R2 2 another whiskey 2nd
Quite happy to keep following this easy (for me) system from Neil.
Been following since 19th march, up to twelve wins from twenty bets, returning a profit of six dollars and ten cents (tatts bets results)

[aferw]

Bit late, (no internet) but can easy be looked up on the Wa site.
All raced and a nice result today
21st
fleming 2 12 sebring dream 1st $2.80 $1.40
rosehill 2 6 hipparchus x
morphet 1 4 I am a star 1st $2.90 $1.40

[Neil]

Selections for Saturday, 28th. May. Winning Post odds used.

Sandown
1/3 Gingerboy

Randwick
7/8 Raw impulse

Doomben
3/8 Ghisoni

[aferw]

28th, my selections using Wa site

sandown 1 3 gingerboy
doomben 3 8 ghisoni
morphet 5 5 model dragon

[aferw]

28th, my selections using Wa site

sandown 1 3 gingerboy 2nd
doomben 3 8 ghisoni 1st 1.90 - 1.30
morphet 5 5 model dragon scr
4th'6
sandown 4 1 turnitaround
rosehill 4 4 inz'n'out
e.farm 1 1 archives
morphet 1 1 rich river

[aferw]

4th'6
sandown 4 1 turnitaround 1st 3.10-1.50
rosehill 4 4 inz'n'out 2nd 1.50
e.farm 1 1 archives abnd
morphet 1 1 rich river

Looking at yesterdays c'mail. it had 2 different for today.
sr 4 5 marenostro- 1st 2.50 and ar 2 4 love days - x . Hence the need to stick to the one source.
Still managed a profit today just the same ....

[aferw]

ok folks, here we are again !!
11th
fleming 2 12 avenue whisper
e.farm 3 3 chisoni
morphet 3 1 angelology

[aferw]

ok folks, here we are again !!
11th
fleming 2 12 avenue whisper 2nd 3.20
e.farm 3 3 chisoni
morphet 3 1 angelology
18th
m.valley 3 7 raw impulse
rosehill 2 5 sebrina

[aferw]

18th
m.valley 3 7 raw impulse.scr
rosehill 2 5 sebrina 2nd 1.20

Using the wa site still in front 5.80+, or 19% pot
Courier mail had 2 from 2.
Dont have it tonight, But so far c'mail, qld is the only state running at a loss. small stats anyways
Using Wa site, nsw is running a loss.
If running this by state/state, be different again

24th
fleming 7 5 award of merit
e.farm 8 1 azkadellia
morphet 1 3 honey steel's gold

[darkydog2002]

Aferw,
Have been using it DAILY since it was posted.
Staking to win 4% of a $10,000 bank.
Currently shows a loss of $597 and in a losing run.

I am not particularly worried as a losing run is always followed by a winning run and vice versa.

How long any run will last is anyones guess hence staking correctly but I believe the method is sound.

The higher priced Fav though (On a DAILY basis ) was hopeless and my feeling on that one is that its best used for LAY betting.

Cheers
darky

[aferw]

Using the wa site still in front 5.80+, or 19% pot
Courier mail had 2 from 2.
Dont have it tonight, But so far c'mail, qld is the only state running at a loss. small stats anyways
Using Wa site, nsw is running a loss.
If running this by state/state, be different again

24th
fleming 7 5 award of merit x
e.farm 8 1 azkadellia 2nd 1.80
morphet 1 3 honey steel's gold 3rd (hurdle)


Hi Darky dog

From 34 races, the last 8 have lost the win side of things. Still in front slightly
(Have no idea if the c'mail had the winners.)

But if I put these into "states" then yes different thing altogether, one state is now behind - Nsw.
C'mail has qld behind.
But adding one filter to each state separately, different results again.

Agree doing this daily is a loss, I did this some years ago, and more recently this year.

Most of my betting is midweek now, and hardly if at all saturdays.

Cheers

[darkydog2002]

Thanks for the reply Aferw.
I hesitate to put any filters in myself as obviously they have been put through the mill hence the price.

But if I did it would be based around Form/ beaten lengths /weight (55kg + represent 36.5 % of horses but win 50.6 % of races )A massive advantage.

But like I say I will take the method as written.

Cheers.

[UselessBettor]

Anyone who has a database of results already knows the rules proposed are going to lose long term.

[darkydog2002]

Wish I had those clairvoiant powers.
Cheers.

[UselessBettor]

History repeats itself. Short odds favs are over bet historically. Going forward short priced favs will be over bet again.

This whole system is flawed as it doesn't take into account anything which

1) gives you value
2) no (positive) backtest results have been posted
3) is a prime candidate for long term losing based on biases in the market.

I can tell you right now based on my own backtest results you are going to lose between 8% and 11% long term.

[darkydog2002]

With all fairness to Neil he did only use it on Metropolitan Meetings.

For me Price indicates chance so I will continue to use it on a daily basis.

What others do of course is up to each individual.

Cheers.

[aferw]

Thanks for the reply Aferw.
I hesitate to put any filters in myself as obviously they have been put through the mill hence the price.



Hi D'dog,
my only filer when put into states is prices.

Anyone who has a database of results already knows the rules proposed are going to lose long term.

Only been going since 19th'3 U'better so not enough to go on as yet. But the ppost prices I have are going to be different to everyone elses.

Will continue for a bit longer.

2nd'7
caulfield 2 3 longeron
rosehill 1 1 foxplay
morphet 6 4 ma jones

[UselessBettor]

Only been going since 19th'3 U'better so not enough to go on as yet. But the ppost prices I have are going to be different to everyone elses.


Almost every serious systems bettor will have a database whether they put it together themselves or bought it. All of these will have a x (or multiple) prepost prices.

I can tell you long term its a losing set of rules based on my database going back years. Hence I wouldn't bother putting any real money on it. Follow it for fun, or when you want a bet and your at the track.

[aferw]

2nd'7
caulfield 2 3 longeron 1st 4.60-1.70
rosehill 1 1 foxplay 2nd 1.10
morphet 6 4 ma jones
Nice return

[Tipsy]

But if I did it would be based around Form/ beaten lengths /weight (55kg + represent 36.5 % of horses but win 50.6 % of races )A massive advantage.



Those stats quoted are nonsense. You need look no further than a form guide.

[aferw]

9th
morphet 1 2 showpero
fleming 2 1 euro angel
doomben 2 3 upstart pride

[aferw]

9th
morphet 1 2 showpero 1st 2.60-1.40
fleming 2 1 euro angel 2nd 1.20
doomben 2 3 upstart pride 2nd 1.60
16th
caulfield 7 3 duke of brunswick
e.farm 1 2 guard of honour

[Vortech]

Those stats quoted are nonsense. You need look no further than a form guide.

Totally agree Tipsy.

[darkydog2002]

The Stats.
Ignore at your own peril I say.

[aferw]

16th
caulfield 7 3 duke of brunswick 2nd 1.30
e.farm 1 2 guard of honour scr
23rd
doomben 1 1 royal tithe
flemington 6 2 voodoo lad

[Vortech]

The Stats.
Ignore at your own peril I say.

Stats are only relevant against avg. price

The stats you mentioned were tested on another forum and the loss on turnover was no different to backing horses under 55kg. The difference was the higher strike rate for horses 55kg plus but lower avg dividend.

Still producing the same Loss.

[darkydog2002]

Hardly.

The Race Clubs Official Handicappers have declared these horses the Class horses of the the particular race.

As you are a Lay bettor I can see why you might make money betting Under these Weights.

But for the Win Bettor like me I prefer a Class horse, well weighted to win.

Cheers.

[darkydog2002]

Just curious but what was that other forum.
Have you a link?

[Vortech]

Just curious but what was that other forum.
Have you a link?

Its against Terms to provide. Do you know the Loss on Turnover?

[Vortech]

Off to shout friends at pub. picked up first 4 at townsville 3. 1st n 2nd both great runs under 55kg. Good luck all

[aferw]

23rd
doomben 1 1 royal tithe 1st 3.30-1.60
flemington 6 2 voodoo lad 3rd 1.40
30th
caulfield 1 2 turbo street
morphet 1 1 subiaso

[aferw]

30th
caulfield 1 2 turbo street
morphet 1 1 subiaso

Last week had 2 in the 1 race at e.farm with the last start a winner Rednav paying $4.30

6th'8
e.farm 2 1 akavoroun
randwick 5 7 capitalist

[aferw]

Last week had 2 in the 1 race at e.farm with the last start a winner Rednav paying $4.30

6th'8
e.farm 2 1 akavoroun
randwick 5 7 capitalist scr
13th'8
rosehill 5 1 capitalist
morphet 5 2 allez tara

[aferw]

13th'8
rosehill 5 1 capitalist
morphet 5 2 allez tara 1st 2.00-1.20
20th
randwick 7 6 winx
belmont 2 3 sweet ora
m.valley 7 9 pilote d'essai

[aferw]

20th
randwick 7 6 winx 1st 1.20-1.20
belmont 2 3 sweet ora 1st 1.70-1.10
m.valley 7 9 pilote d'essai 2nd 1.30
27th
belmont 4 2 first among equals

[Sands]

27th
belmont 4 2 first among equals
Thought Red Ora a top chance, same race
But unfortunately meeting washed out

[aferw]

Thought Red Ora a top chance, same race
But unfortunately meeting washed out
Am about to somewhat give up on this..lol. Only 2.40+ in front, and after a filter by $, bit better. Passed on Sr2-3 extensible & Mr2-1 honey steels gold, was left with Br3-5 now scr, & now belmont.

[Sands]

Am about to somewhat give up on this..lol. Only 2.40+ in front, and after a filter by $, bit better. Passed on Sr2-3 extensible & Mr2-1 honey steels gold, was left with Br3-5 now scr, & now belmont.
Honey Steel's Gold did the right thing ;)

[darkydog2002]

Wise move aferw.
Cheers.

[aferw]

3rd'9
e.farm 5 7 the virginian
morphet 1 2 allez tara

see how go today, barely in front now, while the courier mail. very much behind. Both Victoria & Adelaide are the 2 venues doing well.
Perth also watching,

[grizzle]

11 mar

rose r6 foxplay 1st
flem r5 i am a star 1st
doom r3 pinch river 1st
ascot r4 three votes 1st
morph r2 mile high 2nd

18 mar

rose r5 winx 1st
flem r5 tosen stardom 2nd
goldc r1 miss exfactor 1st
ascot r6 galaxy star 1st r7 seannie 3rd
morph r2 pujols 2nd

[Sands]

Did well

[Sands]

Sat 10/6

Belmont R1 Art Series
Doomben R6 Melody Belle
Flemington R3 Santa Ana Lane
Morphettville R7 Counter Pulse
Randwick R4 Broadside

[theshoe]

4 Nov

Rosehill:
Neutrality 1st. Black On Gold 1st.

Flemington:
Harlem 6th.

Doomben:
Ef Troop 1st. Chamalu 4th.

Ascot:
La Mouline 1st.

Morphettville:
Hussbay 1st.

[theshoe]

11 Nov

Rosehill:
Bon Amis 1st.

Flemington:
Fastnet Tempest 1st.

Doomben:
Miss Exfactor 2nd.

Ascot:
Scales Of Justice 3rd.

Morphettville:
Set To Sparkle 2nd.

[theshoe]

18 Nov

Rosehill:
Interlocuter 1st.

Sandown:
Gallic Chieftain 3rd.

Doomben:
Bring It Home Pop 1st.

Ascot:
State Solicitor 1st.

Morphettville:
Raahee 2nd.

[Stix]

Will be interesting as i am running a test using R&S prices for the week.
I've found those with a Pace of L P or OP are the ones to concentrate on when using R&S form, good luck Shaun

[theshoe]

25 Nov

Rosehill:
Plague Stone 2nd.

Ballarat:
Divine Quality 2nd.

Doomben:
Blue Book 1st.

Ascot:
Rhi’s Rocket 7th.

Morphettville:
Shrouded In Mist 2nd.

[theshoe]

16 Dec

Randwick:
Broadside 2nd.

Caulfield:
Vinland 4th.

Doomben:
Long Time Ago 3rd.

Ascot:
Illustrious Tycoon 1st.

Morphettville:
Indian Thunder 1st. Via Balciano 3rd.

[theshoe]

13 Jan

Randwick:
Sugar Bella 1st.

Flemington:
Nasaayim 2nd.

Gold Coast:
Sedanzer 2nd. Viddora 1st.

Ascot:
Street Fury 1st. Caipirinha 1st.

Gawler:
Go The Journey 1st.

[theshoe]

3 Feb

Rosehill:
Performer 1st.

Caulfield:
Snitty Kitty 2nd.

Doomben:
Boomwaa 2nd.

Ascot:
Action 3rd.

Morphettville:
Belfast 2nd.

[Lord Greystoke]

What is the strike rate ?

I hope its close to 90% or higher.

Interesting proposition for the place I'm thinking UB. Thoughts?

Cheers LG

[Lord Greystoke]

History repeats itself.

When it comes to human behaviour, you are spot on I believe. Not just in relation to what punters chase (and don't tend to chase) but every other aspect or variable in horse racing that has a human element as a fundamental. Once you understand this point, things start getting easier. If it human and predictable we can map and track it numerically I believe.

That is the really exciting bit for me!

Cheers LG

[UselessBettor]

Interesting proposition for the place I'm thinking UB. Thoughts?

Cheers LG

With All ups maybe. Depends on the strike rate and odds.

[Snert]

Interesting proposition for the place I'm thinking UB. Thoughts?

Cheers LG

With the greatest respect to you Lord Greystoke, the best proposition is to DYOR. You need thousands of hours of testing, you need a feel for what's going to repeat, what's solid.....you're not going to benefit from someone else's opinion anywhere near the same degree as you are if you do the hard yards yourselves. The reason you're looking for some sort of conformation is that you've not found out how to prosper from this caper.

You'll not prosper from others doing the hard yards for you.

And those who find that statement an insult, then, you don't get it.

[Lord Greystoke]

With All ups maybe. Depends on the strike rate and odds.

At a glance, appears to return 3-4 out of 5 quite consistently. Would be interested to see how it stacks up state v state.

LG

[Lord Greystoke]

With the greatest respect to you Lord Greystoke, the best proposition is to DYOR. You need thousands of hours of testing, you need a feel for what's going to repeat, what's solid.....you're not going to benefit from someone else's opinion anywhere near the same degree as you are if you do the hard yards yourselves. The reason you're looking for some sort of conformation is that you've not found out how to prosper from this caper.

You'll not prosper from others doing the hard yards for you.

And those who find that statement an insult, then, you don't get it.

I think it is a bit of both Snert. How do you think the great artists - musicians - scientists conjure up great works? If you delve a bit deeper, you will find there is always an element or elements which have been obtained from somewhere else in addition to hard slog. Whether this be conscious (pinching and borrowing ideas and inputs from elsewhere) or unconscious (influence, education etc).

LG

[theshoe]

10 Feb

Warwick Farm:
She Will Reign 1st.

Caulfield:
Gailo Chop 1st.

Doomben:
Plumaro 2nd.

Pinjarra:
Kiss The Breeze 5th.

Morphettville:
Counterplay 2nd. Itz Invincible 1st.

[theshoe]

24 Feb

Rosehill:
Estijaab 2nd.

Caulfield:
Gailo Chop 1st.

Doomben:
Meeting Postponed.

Ascot:
Eleven Seconds 4th.

Morphettville:
Incomparable 1st. Blue Tycoon 1st.

[theshoe]

10 Mar

Randwick:
Estijaab 1st. Redzel 1st.

Flemington:
Kings Will Dream 1st.

Doomben:
Miss Sara 1st.

Ascot:
Western Temple 2nd.

Morphettville:
Iconoclasm 1st.

[theshoe]

14 July

Rosehill:
Rekindled Force 3rd.

Caulfield:
Rillito 2nd.

Sunshine Coast:
Zoustyle 1st. Privlaka 2nd.

Belmont:
Atlanta Blue 1st.

Morphettville:
Thorondor 1st. Cougar Express 4th.

[midas]

Hi Neil
With your high strike rate I was wondering if you had thought about combining all the Sat SMBA selections as all ups e.g.:

ABCD
AB
AC
AD
ABD
ACD

BCD
BC
BD

CD


If the first leg can win with one other ...not bad ..but more winners could be Ok... on average ?????

Midas

[Sportz Power]

With All ups maybe. Depends on the strike rate and odds.
Been using to boost my sports bets ;)

[theshoe]

25 August

Rosehill:
Avilius 1st. Paret 1st.

Moonee Valley:
Multaja 2nd. Brutal 1st.

Sunshine Coast:
Navy 7th. Hold The Line 1st.

Belmont:
Red Army 2nd. Crystal Spirit 1st.

Morphettville:
Approach Discreet 1st.

[grizzle]

all up place worked for me
roheryn & fifty stars & laure me in & arcadia prince & zoustyle

[westi]

Been using to boost my sports bets ;)
Me too. WA tab fixed min. bet (standalone) is still $1. Small bets for me so I find mixing sports & racing gives me the option to bet 50c units.

[theshoe]

8 June

Flemington:
Dr Drill 1st.

Randwick:
Quackerjack 1st.

Eagle Farm:
Noble Boy 6th.

Belmont:
True Attraction 1st. Kelvin 2nd.

Morphettville:
All Too Huiying 1st.

[theshoe]

29 June

Rosehill:
So You Win 2nd.

Caulfield:
One More Try 2nd.

Sunshine Coast:
Tycoon Ace 7th.

Belmont:
Galaxy Star 1st.

Morphettville:
Hard Press 1st.

[Lord Greystoke]

SYD
Race 4 - Gravina

MEL
Race 1 - Ranveer

BRI
Race 5 - Zaiki

ADL
Race 4 - Ambidazzle

PER
Race 7 - Zaratite (BFLS)


Best of luck gents.

Cheers LG


PS BFLS = beaten favorite last start

[Lord Greystoke]

SYD + BRI are TOP PICKS

SYD
Race 4 - Gravina

MEL
Race 1 - Ranveer

BRI
Race 5 - Zaiki

ADL
Race 4 - Ambidazzle

PER
Race 7 - Zaratite (BFLS)


Best of luck gents.

Cheers LG


PS BFLS = beaten favorite last start

[Lord Greystoke]

Results below ...


SYD
Race 4 - Gravina WON $1.50

MEL
Race 1 - Ranveer WON $3.20

BRI
Race 5 - Zaiki WON $1.30

ADL
Race 4 - Ambidazzle 3RD

PER
Race 7 - Zaratite (BFLS) 2ND