Lovely Leaders

[evajb001]

On the back of some discussion in the favorites thread that LG created I mentioned I was looking at horses who are likely to lead and looking at the stats of particular tracks to decide what horse is most favorable to back based on that tracks tendencies. This is only in its infancy but lets give it a bit of a test run. Also included some lays for interest sake as well.

MACKAY
R1
BACK - 2
LAY - 6

R4
LAY - 5

R6
BACK - 3

R7
LAY - 9

TAREE
R4
BACK - 5
LAY - 1

R7
BACK - 4
LAY - 2

NORTHAM
LAY - 2

[evajb001]

That's race 2 at northam by the way.

[evajb001]

slight profit on the backing side yesterday but the lays had a loss late in the day unfortunately. Here are today's picks hopefully the backing side can continue to profit:

Townsville

R4
LAY - 11

R6
LAY - 1

R7
LAY - 8

R8
BACK - 5
LAY - 11

Gosford

R4
LAY - 6

R7
LAY - 8

Geelong

R4
BACK - 6
LAY - 1

R6
BACK - 6
LAY - 9

[johnp1]

this has piqued my interest for the lay side of things ...very interesting indeed
looking at trots as well..showing some good signs

[johnp1]

possibly vr 5 lay 2 dollopini

[johnp1]

ballina 4 no.3 my kind

[evajb001]

Been thinking of starting a thread on here looking at backing/laying certain runners based on speed maps again but haven't had the time. Might take another look at it again soon though. My guess is there is at least 1 horse a day that the collective think can win (i.e. in the top 2-3 favorites) that is significantly advantaged by the likely speed map and likely pace of the race.

On the flip side of this I feel like you could find at least 1 or 2 favorites a day that are significantly disadvantaged by the speed map, pace of the race and their barrier. If I get the time I'll start posting selections soon and see how we go.