Be Like the Don

[TheSchmile]

Seeing my old mate LG back on the forum was like a shot of Adrenalin to the heart.

It prompted me to dust off the forum cobwebs and jump back on the horse!!!!

I've had an intense time since I last posted, losing my best mate and gaining my first child, so the peaks and troughs have been extreme.

I hope the old and new crew are finding a way to graft out a profit. I've managed to craft a niche with selective betting, averaging 3-5 bets a week, sticking to NSW, VIC & QLD metro & provincial races only.

For this experiment, I'm going to use an article I read in PPM some time ago about the great Don Scott and see if we can graft out a wee profit on the exotics.

THE RULES
- ELIMINATE ALL RACES WITH FEWER THAN 10 RUNNERS.
- ELIMINATE ALL BAD VALUE CHANCES, INCLUSIVE OF LONG-PRICED AND SHORT-PRICED HORSES
- COMBINE THE THREE OR FOUR BEST VALUE CHANCES IN TRIFECTAS AND EXACTAS.
- ALL RUNNERS MINIMUM 5 STARTS
- 1000 TO 1800M RACES

THE PROCESS
- USE DON SCOTT PRICES FROM R&S AND START FROM FAV DOWN AND COMPARE WITH TATTS OPENERS
- TAKE TOP 4 OVERS IN EXACTAS
- TAKE TOP 5 OVERS IN TRIFECTAS

[TheSchmile]

Wow, bit of a fizzer today, the randomness of the DS selections, meant there were no races where I could find 4+ horses over the odds.

Will wait to pounce in the coming days.

Happy hump day all.

[TheSchmile]

Might need to review this theory, here are the DS selections. Hard to find races with 5 horses overs. Will stick to conditions no worse than Soft 5.

New system, let's call it 'THE DUCKS NUTS'
- Take DS overs selections as roving bankers in Trifectas with Tatts tips selections, Top 4 ratings & any horse with a 'C' next to its name.

ROCKY
6 1200 70
DS: 1,5,9,13
Tatts: 2,3,4,7,11,12
Combo: 4x4x10 // 4x10x4 // 10x4x4
Cost: $96 for 33%

7 1300 OP
DS: 4,5,7
Tatts: 1,9,13
Combo: 3x3x6 // 3x6x3 // 6x3x3
Cost: $24 for 33%

8 1400 OP
DS: 2,4
Tatts: 3,6,7,8,9
Combo: 2x2x7 // 2x7x2 // 7x2x2
Cost: $10 for 33%

[TheSchmile]

ROCKY
6 1200 70
DS: 1,5,9,13
Tatts: 2,3,4,7,11,12
Combo: 4x4x10 // 4x10x4 // 10x4x4
Cost: $96 for 33%

7 1300 OP
DS: 4,5,7
Tatts: 1,9,13
Combo: 3x3x6 // 3x6x3 // 6x3x3
Cost: $24 for 33%
WON: TRI $780/3 = $260

8 1400 OP
DS: 2,4
Tatts: 3,6,7,8,9
Combo: 2x2x7 // 2x7x2 // 7x2x2
Cost: $10 for 33%
RESULT
OUT $130 In $260

Straight out Quinella/Exacta:
Q: OUT $10 IN $47 1/3
EX: OUT $20 IN $107 1/3

Going long didn't pay off today but a profit all the same. Straight out box was the order of the day with a lovely POT.

Hope this is getting the brain cells ticking. Input appreciated, otherwise I will go back to my basement and crank up a little....'all byyyyyyy myself.......don't wanna Beebe.....all byyyyyyy my-self'.....

[Shaun]

You know i love ratings but recently i see the value in using other peoples ratings but putting your own spin on pricing or bet's in your case, the work load is less but can still produce some very nice winners, i still think it comes down to race selection no matter what ratings you use.

[TheSchmile]

Nice to hear from you Shaun me old muck!!! Very prudent words indeed.

Two venues today:
EAGLE FARM
2-5,7,13
8-2,4,5,11
9-1,2

ROCKY
6-3,6
7-3,2,5

[TheSchmile]

Nice to hear from you Shaun me old muck!!! Very prudent words indeed.

Two venues today:
EAGLE FARM
2-5,7,13
8-2,4,5,11 - 5 W $15.4
9-1,2 - 2 W $5.4

ROCKY
6-3,6
7-3,2,5- 3 W $3.5


Time to review the way to approach this one.

[TheSchmile]

Due to lack of interest, I'm off back into the wild blue yonder. Best of luck my punting brethren!!