betting favourites in small fields

[noel]

has anybody else been following this column in the weekly punt to win article?? i just did a quick calculation of the past 10 weeks entries and they returned the following return at sp....there were 20 selections for 14 winners and a return of $29.90!!
thats a whopping 50% profit on turnover (even more if you get top fluc) and 70% strike rate....am i missing something here, can it be that simple to trot out to the racecourse with a barrowful of money and only back these horses??? any other comments....

by the way there were 2 weeks with no selections...i wonder if this has the same success midweek??

[crash]

Doesn't each race "selection" include four horses? If so [I'm not sure as I've never been able to access them for some reason and it seems I'm not alone with this problem].Beting all four will turn a profit now and then. What are your figures based on? Single selections that are odds-on? Or betting all four [odds-on too]? Your profit ["Whopping"? 14 winners from 20 races?] from that many winners means your average selection[s] had to be odds-on.

Like to know if I'm wrong about the number of horses selected. If single selections of more or less [but overall] odds-on Horses, thats about the Stats. ratio of odds on horses winning anyway. So, just pick your selections from odds-on horses? Isn't that a bit of a no brainer exercise [?]

Thanks Noel [just saw your message]. OK one selected horse. but your original Post is sending the message to new Punters [lots of them, now they have banned smoking in Vic. Pokies]that goes against a valid Punting Maxim; "Never bet odds-on!".
Have my barrow ready. Do you have the shovel?

Cheers.


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-11-12 03:39 ]</font>

[noel]

crash, these are not my selections merely the favourite in small fields as published in the weekly punt to win article on this site ....there is only one selection in the race, unless there are equal favourites....
cheers, noel

[Neil]

If there are no selections for a Saturday it means there were no runners.
One thing for sure - we are dispelling the betting myth that small fields are dangerous betting races because longshots regularly win.
Many small fields are very good win betting races - the exact opposite of what media mugs tell you - "no value" - if you can select the right horses - usually a shortish priced favourite/second favourite.
Note the discrepancy between tote and bookmaker odds on a Saturday - that also tells you something.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Neil on 2003-08-15 10:57 ]</font>

[noel]

last weeks results from punt to win....
4 starters, 4 winners, return at sp $11.10...
last 11 weeks now stands at 24 selections for 18 winners, return at sp $41.00...pot 70%..
cheers,
noel

[noel]

this week 1 selection , 1 winner @$1.50 sp..

overall for 12 weeks 25 selections, 19 winners return $42.50 .....pot 70%...

cheers,
noel

[shoto]

Hi Noel,
I ran this through Price predictor for last 12 months, August 2002 to now - with a surprisingly poor outcome. Strike rate less than 20%. Loss on turnover about 25%.

Parameters used: Field size: Max 7
Saturday only
pos in betting: 1

Don't know if anyone would have different result.

[Bhagwan]

I have run it through the last 150 races
Which produced a
35% S/R
-19% LOT

All winners were on the short side.
This is a recognised average stat.
Backing the pre-post fav.
I`m assuming, that`s what you mean.

Let us know if it is not.

[Bhagwan]

I forgot to add , that I was targeting races with 8 & less starters , is that what you were doing or was it exactly 8 starters.?

[noel]

bhagwan,

these refer to on-course favourites (not pre-post) in fields of 7 or less runners saturday adelaide, melbourne, sydney and brisbane metro races
...your stats may have been drawn from a much larger database

cheers,

noel

[osulldj]

Shoto I would suggest there is something wrong with your Price Predictor set up. Why would favourites have less than a 20% strike rate?

Maybe you are missing some dividends...i.e. your software counts the bets but doesn't have dividends for the winners.

I will run some stats and see what shows up.

[osulldj]

Following stats showed up for a limited period from 1/1/02 to 19/7/03 (need to update the database on this PC).

Field Size between 0 and 7
Weekday = Saturday
Area = Metropolitan
State = QLD, NSW, VIC, SA

include if TAB N Rank = 1


Total selections: 250
Total Wins: 109
Strike Rate: 43.6%
Total Place: 166
Place Strike rate: 66.4%
Profit on Turnover: -1.5%

[Chrome Prince]

Osulldj,

Your figures stack up to mine pretty much exactly.
What worries me are the number of different outcomes some people get from databases.

Bhagwan for example, gets a completely different result but that is possibly because of him including 8 runners not 7 or less.

Here are my stats:
(But I did include Perth as I have a limited history in my database.

Selections 143
Winners 66
Strike Rate 46.15%
Return $142.10
Loss $0.90
LOT 0.63%
Average Dividend $2.15

But here is some interesting added information.

Horses meeting all the above criteria, but paying less than $2.00 (odds on):

Selections 41
Winners 29
Strike Rate 70.73%
Return $47.10
Profit $6.10
POT 14.88% ****
Average Dividend $1.62

(Selections paying greater than even money were about 5% LOT).

Get DiviPlus on these badboys and your in the money! :wink:.......maybe!

Further fuel to the debate that you can't back favourites and especially odds on favourites and still win - you can, providing you're selective.


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Chrome Prince on 2003-08-29 18:19 ]</font>

[shoto]

On 2003-08-29 16:10, osulldj wrote:
Shoto I would suggest there is something wrong with your Price Predictor set up. Why would favourites have less than a 20% strike rate?

Maybe you are missing some dividends...i.e. your software counts the bets but doesn't have dividends for the winners.

I will run some stats and see what shows up.


Strange. Obviously I've got a problem. I checked and re-checked the set-up - and ran the test again - this is what my results give me. I can't say for sure that have every single Saturday meeting, but at worst it would be most of them. As far as I know Price will list selections without results seperately and not include them in the results. Any other price predictor users have this weirdness?

[partypooper]

Chrome, Do you know if the same result (or close) would be achieved using pre-post prices, i.e. 1/1 or less or odds on??

[Bhagwan]

Ran it through 300 races based on S/P favs for 40% S/R -15% LOT.

Frustrating stuff when you consider the strike rate.

[becareful]

My figures also match Chrome Prince's & Ossulldj's - I don't know what you other guys are doing!!!

Field Size = 3 to 7
Saturday Only
Metro Only in Syd, Mel, Bris, Adel & Perth
TABCORP Favourite (if equal favourite then lower TAB number)
Approx 18 months of data:

305 Selections
136 Winners (45% SR)
-2.10 LOSS (0.6% LOT)

Looking by price range:
1.00-1.90: 91 seln, 59 win, 6.70 profit (7% POT)
2.00-2.90: 169 seln, 66 win, -1.10 loss (0.6% LOT)
3.00+: 45 seln, 11 win, -7.70 loss (17% LOT)

Once again the odds-on runners are the best bet!

[becareful]

Forgot to mention - it is even better if you look at races with 6 or less runners:

Odds On: 49 selns, 32 wins (65% SR), 5.30 profit (10.8% POT)
2.00-2.90: 79 selns, 31 wins (39% SR), 0.20 loss (0.2% LOT)
3.00+ : 12 Selns, 2 wins, 5.80 Loss (48% LOT)

[crash]

Hi to the Sages,

So does all that [mind blowing] lot mean I throw my money at these guys for there tips or what?

Cheers.

[shoto]

On 2003-08-30 19:33, crash wrote:
Hi to the Sages,

So does all that [mind blowing] lot mean I throw my money at these guys for there tips or what?

Cheers.


Crash, did you intend this response for this thread?
If so, these are not paid selections, they're just doing a study following the performance of favourites in small fields.

[crash]

Shoto,

I only ment it in the sense that: "does it mean that the way to go in punting, is to seek out short priced favotites?" or "to throw my lot in with that sort of punting?" Tongue in cheek way of asking.

Sorry to confuse.

Cheers.

[Chrome Prince]

Hi Crash,

You don't have to pay anyone for the selections, simply note down any metro race that has less than 8 runners and back the horse which is odds on.

I'm not saying that this will hold up forever, but it's certainly worth monitoring for the next few months.

Many aviod favourites like the plague, as they think there's no value there. There is, if you're selective.

[Chrome Prince]

partypooper,

sorry missed your earlier posting re prepost.

I don't have any way of assessing the prepost price performance, but I'd imagine you'd do ok backing 1/1 or less, especially in small fields, as they would almost certainly start odds on in a small field.

Certainly if you looked at the next price in the prepost market and it was say 5/1, you'd be pretty confident that the favourite would start odds on.

[shoto]

On 2003-08-31 16:15, crash wrote:
Shoto,

I only ment it in the sense that: "does it mean that the way to go in punting, is to seek out short priced favotites?" or "to throw my lot in with that sort of punting?" Tongue in cheek way of asking.

Sorry to confuse.

Cheers.


I'm with ya. Interesting though, some of those figures scratching out a profit on only the odds on.

[crash]

Thanks all,

Are those Trees I can see amongst the wood?

Cheers.

[partypooper]

Chrome! thanks for that. Yes have been very pleased with my results recently. What I'm doing is using several different methods of selection independently to arrive at a set of selections, but then only betting when all methods point to the same horse. The selection methods are basically ratings based, combined with other known advantages, so I'm quietly confident. I have been backing for the place so far but the selections are actually showing a better POT for the win, so may change that soon, just want a longer "look' first.

[crash]

Well I tried a little experiment today.

Had three small bets today, just on the shortest Tote price where nothing ealse was close to it ... without even knowing anything about the horse!... a system I am not about to launch into full time, just had some fun.

First bet of $50W won, 2nd bet of $50 just lost but the winner did shorten from about $8 to $4.50 in final minutes. Third bet of $100 won. Just over 150% collect on outlay.

Now surely that points to somthing interesting going on [other than my recklessness]?

Cheers.

[Chrome Prince]

crash,

doing that on any old races might not and probably won't work.

I have only assessed this on Metro class races with 7 runners or less and fairly limited data, so please be careful.

[crash]

Be careful[?] Ha Ha

Well it was just a tryout. Now I'll throw in some study to include field size, race class, And look at the horses form etc.

That experiment though, is a pointer.

Cheers.

[Every Topic]

Crash,
just having a quick flick around with this I dont think its the size of the field that really matters - it might be more the amount by which a horse is favourite by.

try the following...
thoroughbreds - select the favourite for a place if the win price is $3 or more greater than the next runner at the start. my gut feeling is that you might be best to exclude metro races from this (weekday and weekend) because they do some funny things to favourites and you would obviously need to keep an eye out for special weather or event conditions that might make it advisable to back off - and in this case because you are going for the place I would not take ntd races.

standardbreds - the words trots and favourites always suggest profit, but if you also took your idea into this area then I would try the same $3 better than the others method, leave out ntd's and any horse with no previous form.

my quick research suggests both would give you a POT rather than a LOT but Im sure one of the database gurus will prove me wrong and tell us these methods would give you a long term loss.

but I like the look of them just the same
:smile:

see ya
Every Topic

[crash]

Every Topic,

I know there are people who can win on the place, but when I tried it over a few weeks [1wx4p] it's profit was nowhere near what I would have collected beting for the win only. The final place price is just too volatile and crashes right on or after the start far too often.

It's just not my cuppa.

Cheers.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-09-02 10:57 ]</font>

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-09-02 10:58 ]</font>

[Every Topic]

agreed Crash,
the old place betting does involve a bit of getting used to especially at the trots where the pool is smaller.

but after a while the fog clears and the science shines through :smile:

usually you will find that a horse offering only $1 ($1.04 on NSW) a few minutes before the start will go up in price in the last moments whilst a horse that is favourite but paying $1.50+ can crash to $1 as the horses hit the release point.

last week I was watching a race from Harold Park on the Tuesday. the horse I wanted was showing $1.04 as the horses formed behind the barrier, as they set off it crawled to $1.10 - which gave me hope.
I kept working the refresh button as they wound around to the release point and slammed my money on when it hit $1.40 with about 100 metres to go before release.
it closed at $1.70 and romped in for the place.

but you do feel like you have earnt the dough !!

see ya
Every Topic

[partypooper]

everytopic, it can be a bit frustrating watching the tote, on Saturday I was watching P Harveys mount in the 1st (forgot the name) waiting for a minimum of $2, it was showing $1.50 to what seemed to me to be the last second, so I refrained, the darn thing romped in(of course) and paid $2.10c.
I've found though , overall it probably evens out if you just let em run with your cash anyway, i.e some pay under, some pay over.

[becareful]

Everytopic,

Had a quick look at your $3 premium idea and it didn't seem to hold up in the long run. BUT there was an interesting trend in the Saturday Metro figures - basically look at favourites which are priced at under $3 on Tabcorp AND where the "premium" over the next runner is between about $1 and $1.50.

Too tired to go into full details tonight but it looks like it has some potential.

[Every Topic]

becareful wrote...
"Had a quick look at your $3 premium idea and it didn't seem to hold up in the long run. BUT there was an interesting trend in the Saturday Metro figures - basically look at favourites which are priced at under $3 on Tabcorp AND where the "premium" over the next runner is between about $1 and $1.50.

BC, I assume you are using Tabcorp prices.
I was looking at this yesterday and played around with it on trots races (for Tuesday) and noticed that a few runners that qualified on qtab wouldnt have qualified if I was using NSW prices.

maybe it would all even out in the wash but the difference between TAB's makes for tricky analysis.

let us know how your Saturday numbers stack up.

see ya
Every Topic

[Dale]

If more than one tote was used to work out the bet a more accurate selection would be the end result.

[umrum]

in the last newsletter it said jeremiad was favourite at ~ 3.30 but regent street was favourite at even money .

any comments neil. cheers mate.

umrum

[Mark]

Regent Street started at $3.40.

[Darren]

Hi guys

Just following up one of the earlier posts, I am wondering if one of the database gurus could do me a favour.

I was wondering what the stats are on:
3 to 7 runners
Starting price < $2.00
All races, all tracks

This is basically the same system which has been the main gist of the thread, except that only considered metro tracks on the Saturday. Lets hope the results are equally as good for the more general system. Thanks in advance.

[Chrome Prince]

Hi Darren,

Sorry, I'd oblige but I only keep records of metro tracks. The time involved for me to do all venues properly would be a fulltime affair.
Perhaps, someone with a larger database could oblige.

[dinodog]

All tracks all days back to 30/6/01

Meetings considered : 3859
Win Strike Rate/Seln. : 49.8%
Plc Strike Rate/Seln. : 84.4%
Average Win Dividend : $1.68

WIN PLACE QUINELLA EXACTA TRIFECTA FIRST FOUR
Races Bet : 456 456 454 454 453 136
Races Won : 230 384 319 217 205 67
S.R./Race : 50.4% 84.2% 70.3% 47.8% 45.3% 49.3%
Outlay ($): 462.00 462.00 2149.00 2149.00 8172.00 7158.00
Return : 386.80 398.40 1816.30 1702.30 6105.20 6392.90
$ Profit : -75.20 -63.60 -332.70 -446.70 -2066.80 -765.10
% P.O.T. : -16.3% -13.8% -15.5% -20.8% -25.3% -10.7%

[umrum]

On 2003-09-16 22:21, Mark wrote:
Regent Street started at $3.40.


it wasnt 3.40 on the tote. opened odds-on on the tote and drifted to 2.30

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: umrum on 2003-09-17 10:13 ]</font>

[Neil]

On 2003-09-03 09:09, Dale wrote:
If more than one tote was used to work out the bet a more accurate selection would be the end result.

Dale these are starting price favourites in the bookmakers' betting ring on Saturdays at the 4 main metro tracks.

Short priced tote favourites are usually poor odds and poor bets. At times they are also not the betting ring favourite.

The tote prices of the bookies' betting ring favourite are given so a comparison can be made with the bookmaker odds, which should be superior, particularly in Melbourne and Sydney.

The results have been put on the site for a number of reasons including:

1. Dispelling the media mug myth that small fields are risky betting races.

2. To show that with form analysis combined with getting good bookmaker odds it is possible to make money betting short priced horses in small fields, particularly Sydney and Melbourne metro meetings.

[Mark]

Umrum
Tote odds are not considered for SP's or any other fluctuation. The SP of Regent Street was $3.40. Jeremiad was the "official" favourite @ $3.30.

[Merriguy]

Some fascinating statistics there, dinodog. Thanks for your efforts.

Was just wondering about the place returns. Your figures show a return of $398.40 for 384 races 'won'. This works out at less than NSWTab's $1.04 (though I realise you may be using some other Tab's figures). This seems very low!! Surely there would have been a few higher returns?

Sometimes, indeed, the place figure ends up higher than the win figure --- but then perhaps this isn't so when the fields are small?!?!

Thanks again for your efforts.

[umrum]

On 2003-09-17 10:45, Mark wrote:
Umrum
Tote odds are not considered for SP's or any other fluctuation. The SP of Regent Street was $3.40. Jeremiad was the "official" favourite @ $3.30.

righto mate. cheers. still 3.30 is hardly short price favourite when on the tote it is 3.80 and there is another horse paying only 2.30 on the tote and in the ring regent street was 3.40?

[Dale]

On 2003-09-17 10:11, Neil wrote:
On 2003-09-03 09:09, Dale wrote:
If more than one tote was used to work out the bet a more accurate selection would be the end result.

Dale these are starting price favourites in the bookmakers' betting ring on Saturdays at the 4 main metro tracks.

Short priced tote favourites are usually poor odds and poor bets. At times they are also not the betting ring favourite.

The tote prices of the bookies' betting ring favourite are given so a comparison can be made with the bookmaker odds, which should be superior, particularly in Melbourne and Sydney.

The results have been put on the site for a number of reasons including:

1. Dispelling the media mug myth that small fields are risky betting races.

2. To show that with form analysis combined with getting good bookmaker odds it is possible to make money betting short priced horses in small fields, particularly Sydney and Melbourne metro meetings.


Yeah my mistake Neil,i'm with it now lol.

I'm a myth beleiver and hate small fields and favorites,but each to his own i guess,i'd prefer to look outside the square than to re visit an idea that might be currently avoided by the betting public.

[umrum]

what about the weekend in the theo marks.
private steer and grand armee both around 6/4
and neither one.

i'm with dale on this one.

[Chrome Prince]

With Grand Armee and Private Steer vying for favouritism, it's no wonder something else won the race.

When punters can't split them and are trying so hard to come up with a winner, often something else is overlooked and starts at over the odds.

Dinodog,

I'm flabbergasted at your results for small fields at all tracks.
I'm thinking that at country tracks, there are more false favourites than at city tracks or they are much shorter than they should be which is why I only concentrate on metro tracks.

[Chrome Prince]

On 2003-09-17 11:41, Merriguy wrote:
Some fascinating statistics there, dinodog. Thanks for your efforts.

Was just wondering about the place returns. Your figures show a return of $398.40 for 384 races 'won'. This works out at less than NSWTab's $1.04 (though I realise you may be using some other Tab's figures). This seems very low!! Surely there would have been a few higher returns?

Sometimes, indeed, the place figure ends up higher than the win figure --- but then perhaps this isn't so when the fields are small?!?!

Thanks again for your efforts.


Merriguy,

NTD.

:wink:

[umrum]

On 2003-09-17 12:24, umrum wrote:
what about the weekend in the theo marks.
private steer and grand armee both around 6/4
and neither one.

i'm with dale on this one.

just an example chrome. i'll come up with another. family dreams in perth 2 weeks ago 6 / sept i think. 1.80 favourit in field of 8. got done by 20/1 pop - big dam. gallieni on the weekend in sydney.

[becareful]

Dinodog,

Think you may need to check your results there, particularly the place figures. This is what I got from my database for a similar period.

All days, races with 4 - 7 runners, Tabcorp price $1.10-$1.90:
891 selections, 470 winners , 672 placings
Win (Tabcorp): -$123.90 (-13.9% LOT)
Win (Best TAB): -65.50 (-7.4% LOT)
Place (NSW): -87.24 (-9.8% LOT)

Saturday Metro (AR, MR, SR, BR) with 4-7 runners, Tabcorp $1.10-$1.90:
99 selections, 61 winners, 86 placings
Win (Tabcorp): -$3.90 (-3.9% LOT)
Win (Best TAB): +2.30 (2.3% POT)
Place (NSW): 1.26 (+1.27% POT)

Definitely much better results on the metro tracks. Remember this is without any filters at all except for price - imagine what you can do with a couple of very simple form-based filters and adding in the benefit of either SP or Best Tote div whichever is the higher :wink:

[Darren]

Many thanks Dinodog and Becareful, very interesting results indeed!

I wasn't too surprised that whereas betting small field favourites in the city can be profitable, that isn't the case in the country. Given that so much more is known about horses in metro races than their country counterparts, it is nothing less than what you'd expect.

What did surprise me was the extent of the LOT in country races. I'm even toying with the blanket approach of betting against the favourites in these situations, regardless of how little I know about these horses (and their opposition).

With the totes you'd just fall short, as their take on win betting is about 18% (I think). However I'm sure now DiviPlus operate on all races, you'd come out in front with them (particularly as with the low tote pools, the prices of the winner could vary markedly across states. Bear in mind you are betting AGAINST the short priced favourite, which on average would have more than half the win pool bet on it).

I know there are other issues involved. For example, you'd have fun trying to dutch bet the other 6 or so horses on DiviPlus (wild price fluctuations close to the start being another effect of the small pools). However gut feeling says that the effect of this in terms of profit and loss would tend to even out. I just wonder if there might be some merit in pursuing this further, particularly in the way of developing additional filters, and also the staking strategy to use (obviously dutch betting is only one of many possible options).

Any thoughts much appreciated, and thanks again to all the contributors.

[Neil]

becareful wrote:

Saturday Metro (AR, MR, SR, BR) with 4-7 runners, Tabcorp $1.10-$1.90:
99 selections, 61 winners, 86 placings
Win (Tabcorp): -$3.90 (-3.9% LOT)
Win (Best TAB): +2.30 (2.3% POT)
Place (NSW): 1.26 (+1.27% POT)

Definitely much better results on the metro tracks. Remember this is without any filters at all except for price - imagine what you can do with a couple of very simple form-based filters and adding in the benefit of either SP or Best Tote div whichever is the higher.
..................

Imagine also what how you can go if you get TF on some of these horses.

[gunny72]

How do you decide what the favourite will be in practice? I backed Jeremaid on course about 2 minutes before the jump at $3.60 with bookies. I am not sure what Regent Street was paying then.
John

[dinodog]

Sorry it has taken so long to reply.

Firstly, just to clear the air some re my database. I have NSW Tab only.

Becareful... The question was $2.00 favourites, and under, not $1.10 to $1.90. 3-7 runners not 4. As to any further discrepancy, I don't know. Maybe distance, I only went 800- 3200m. My database is back to 1/1/2000 and I'm confident it is atleast 95% correct to there. As for the period back to 30/6/2001, I am confident to 99%. I have recently discovered some small gliches with results, but that is only the past 5 weeks, with the fix expected in the next two days. I really don't foresee any real changes for just the past 5 weeks.

I don't reckon anyone would expect any great returns for the place price, maybe a better strike rate. The place divvies were mostly around the $1.10 mark and some only $1.00.

Regards

Dinodog

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: dinodog on 2003-09-18 20:52 ]</font>

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: dinodog on 2003-09-18 21:05 ]</font>

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: dinodog on 2003-09-18 21:14 ]</font>

[becareful]

Dinodog,

I think you were replying to Darren's query - he asked for <$2.00 which I interpreted as up to $1.90 only (ie odds on, not even money). The 3-7 runners was my mistake - I normally go 4-7 so at least you get a place div. Maybe your problem is here - with 3 runners you will not be getting any place div paid but maybe your system is still counting the selections so dragging down the place profit (there weren't that many 3-runner races but enough to affect the results in this way if your db doesn't report it correctly???)

NSW rarely pays a place div under $1.04 so to get an AVERAGE div of LESS than $1.04 seems to indicate something wrong - my average place div was around $1.24 which seems more reasonable to me given that I found a few where the place div was up around $1.50, $1.60 etc.

Just a suggestion - try the query again with 4-7 runners and see what you find? OR try it with 3 runners and see what it says about place results?

Regards,
"Becareful"

[Merriguy]

Have found this thread very helpful. Thanks all!

Any comments on place betting when there is no third dividend? I think another thread suggested that the dividend actually increases --- but, of course, there are only two payers.

:???:

[Chrome Prince]

Just an update on the results of betting favourites in small fields.

Criteria:
7 runners or less
less than $2.00 on TabCorp

Selections:49
Winners: 34
Strike Rate: 69.39%
Profit: $5.80
POT: 11.84%
Average Dividend $1.61

September Results
Selections: 6
Winners: 4
Strike Rate: 66.67%
Profit: $0.30
POT: 5.00%
Average Dividend: $1.58
Winners:
Lonhro
Hasna
Chiming Mill
Quite Easy

[kenchar]

Hi CP,
Any chance you can run this through your data base,which Ive watched for a while and throws up a lot of big priced winners.
Mon to Fri only 6 or less runners bet the 3 longest prices.

Cheers

[stebbo]

Hi Kenchar,

running it throo my database based on STAB results, over the past 20 months, I get

<pre>
742 races
2226 bets 173 wins
s/r = 7.77% per bet
s/r = 23% per race
profit -$670
POT -30%
LRO 55
MaxDD $691.20
</pre>

it performs slightly "better" (ie loses less) if you restrict to fast / good / dead tracks.

Cheers,
Chris.

[kenchar]

Thanks Stebbo another theory blown.

Cheers

[tragic]

you bet on track kenchar ,maybe you could refine this idea by only betting in races where the bookies are keen to lay the fav and seemingly trying to give you free money ???????????

[kenchar]

Good thought Tragic will start keeping records over the next couple of months.
Cheers

[Chrome Prince]

FAVOURITES IN SMALL FIELDS UPDATE

a)RULES
Must be favourite
Field size of 7 runners or less.

Selections: 191
Winners: 89
Strike Rate: 46.60%
Average Dividend $2.17
Profit: <font color=green>$2.10</font>
POT: <font color=green>1.10%</font>

b)RULES
Must be favourite
Field size of 7 runners or less.
Less than $2.00 on tote.

Selections: 55
Winners: 36
Strike Rate: 65.45%
Average Dividend $1.61
Profit: <font color=green>$3.00</font>
POT: <font color=green>5.45%</font>

Interesting to note that horses showing $1.50 or less on the tote have a 100% place strike rate for a win POT of 28.50% and place POT of 7.00% although there were only 20 of these.

For those who would like to know about longshots in small fields....

Greater than $5.00 on tote.
POT: <font color=red>-26.67%</font>

Greater than $10.00 on tote.
POT: <font color=red>-24.95%</font>

Greater than $15.00 on tote.
POT: <font color=red>-4.06%</font>

Greater than $20.00 on tote.
Selections: 234
Winners: 7
Strike Rate: 2.99%
Average Dividend $39.61
Profit: <font color=green>$43.30</font>
POT: <font color=green>18.50%</font>

Greater than $30.00 on tote.
Selections: 136
Winners: 2
Strike Rate: 1.47%
Average Dividend $79.35
Profit: <font color=green>$22.70</font>
POT: <font color=green>16.69%</font>

[Chrome Prince]

RULES
Must be favourite
Field size of 7 runners or less.

Selections: 203
Winners: 96
Strike Rate: 47.29%
Average Dividend $2.19
Profit: $7.60
POT: 3.74%

Profit comes from 3.5 winners.

[Chrome Prince]

Latest Update:

RULES
Must be favourite
Field size of 7 runners or less.

Selections: 220
Winners: 102
Strike Rate: 46.36%
Average Dividend $2.20
Profit: $4.80
POT: 2.18%

[crash]

...and then their was the punter who had $200,000 to win on all of Lonhro's races this year. He didn't win a bean.

'Never bet odds-on' ?

[Chrome Prince]

Don't see how he could have lost unless he got the worst possible prices.

Lonhro this year
10 starts
8 wins
profit $2.10
POT 21.00%
Ave Div $1.51 (tab prices)

The place POT is 5% as well.

[kenchar]

Cant remember the exact figure but there was an arcticle in Sydney Daily Tele, that the guy was something like $800,000 up before the cox. Does that sound about right CP.

[Chrome Prince]

On 2003-11-12 17:33, kenchar wrote:
Cant remember the exact figure but there was an arcticle in Sydney Daily Tele, that the guy was something like $800,000 up before the cox. Does that sound about right CP.


Sounds to me like he's gone all-up (or partly) with his bets.
But he certainly would not have got TAB prices, he would have done much better than 2.1 units profit.

[crash]

My wife had read the article Chrome and She thinks he did make some profit but doubled the bet to $400,000 on the Cox and come out in the end with very little profit.

Cheers.

[becareful]

From memory the $800,000 was over the last 2 years (not just this year) - although it was just an estimation and based on this guys supposed average bet size (and I think it was also based on starting price rather than top fluctuation, etc).

By my calculations even if he bet $400,000 on the Cox that still leaves $400,000 profit. Don't know what money you make each year Crash but $400,000 profit would not seem like "very little profit" to me!!!!
_________________
"Computers can do that????" - Homer Simpson

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: becareful on 2003-11-13 07:14 ]</font>

[crash]

Becareful it was just his bets on Lohnro only not his yearly punt figures.

$400,000 a lot of profit ? You mean people on this forum think that is a lot ? Heck, you poor buggers, and all this time I thought you all serious players too.

Cheers.

[becareful]

Well if $400,000 is just spare change to you then can I borrow a bit of spare change??? I promise I will return it. :wink:

[xanadu]

Sorry for reprising an old thread, but this particular category of races(ie. fields of 7 or less runners) has made me sit up and notice........again.
Two years ago I alerted fellow forum members to the fact that favourites in small fields were returning a much less than average winning ratio.
Subsequently, an ongoing tracking of favourites was implemented by the management of this site(at the time) to see if my "theories" stood up to scrutiny. I noticed with some scepticism how their ongoing figures "proved" that backing favourites in small fields could prove profitable(NB. for a very short time).
Well, nothing was said for some time and now I again bring to your attention what is going on in small fields. Where the prizemoney is relatively unattractive there is some incentive for the longshot in small fields to "win," usually at attractive odds, meaning that trifecta/exotic betting is a very attractive option. Therefore, for the alert punter, they should give considerable thought to backing the longshot, be it by way of win/place or exotics in such races and going on recent activities they should receive regular good-sized dividends.
Anybody else notice these trends?

Cheers.