Staking Plan

[Super Fox]

Hi

I'm macking around with a selection system and now I'm stuck. Stuck with what selection to choose. 80% of 1st, 2nd & 3rd place actually fall in the top 5 selections.

Can anyone please suggest what would be a suitable staking plan or similar? So far selections 2,3&5 are the best. It'll be ok to play all 5 selections but I don't think that it's a good idea.

Any suggestions welcomed. Thanks.

[crash]

Not a good system Kemosabe. you will end up odds-on! Try 2 for a win and a 2,2,2,3,4,5,8,12,17,24,36 Stop and start again betting system. Not my staking, but I've read it here and it's a goody. Think it's called the 9/4 System.
My thoughts are: If you have an ability to pick horses, then any staking plan will see you through. If you can't select horses, then you are dead meat mate, regardless of staking plans [Even though I am a "flat earth" staker myself].

Cheers.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-08-15 17:54 ]</font>

[Shaun]

I am confused with what you are trying to do...are you intending to bet for a win on multiple selections...if so...take your top 3 bet them level stakes....as long as you are not getting to maney odds on runners you should be ok

[crash]

'Onya Shaun, you got the numbers!

[Bhagwan]

Back all selections that are paying more than whats shown in the newspaper price line.

You will be amazed at some of the value to be had if there are a few good divs amongst your selections .

Try & target races where you feel the Fav has a solid chance of loosing.

Only target race where the fav is $3.00 or more

[crash]

Old crafty, you got the "numbers too"!

[Bhagwan]

What I ment, is target your 5 selections that are paying more than the newspaper odds not the whole dam feild!

[puntz]

***_The 9/4 SATKING PLAN_***

WOULD YOU LIKE TO BREAK EVEN EVERY TIME YOU BACK A WINNER AT 9/4,OR ABOVE, AND SHOW PROFIT ON ALL WINNERS WHO GET HOME AT MORE THAN THAT PRICE?
YOU ADOPT A PROGRESSIVE STAKING APPROACH AS FOLLOWS
2-2-2-3-4-5-8-12-17-24 AND 36 UNITS
A UNIT CAN BE ANY AMOUNT YOU LIKE. IF YOU HAD 11 SUCCESSIVE LOSSES YOU WOULD LOSE 115 UNITS. A WINNER AT ANY STAGE WILL RECOUP ALL LOSSES AND YOU WILL GET A PROFIT WITH A WINNER AT 5/2 AND ABOVE.
IF YOU BACK A WINNER AT LOWER THAN 9/4 YOU SIMPLY REPEAT THE STAKE INVESTED FOR THE NEXT BET. WHENEVER YOU GET INTO A PROFIT SITUATION OF TWO UNITS OR MORE, YOU GO BACK AND START A NEW SERIES.
IF YOU DO STRIKE 11 LOSSES IN A ROW, START A NEW SERIES. MY ADVICE, THOUGH, IS THAT IF YOU GO FIVE STRAIGHT LOSSES AT ANY ONE TIME, NO MATTER WHERE IN PROGRESSION, YOU SHOULD RULE OFF AND START A NEW SERIES.
THIS IS A GOOD METHOD FOR BETTING SOUND,SENSIBLE SELECTIONS. NOT WILD LONG SHOTS! STICK TO ONE OR TWO BETS A DAY AND MAKE THEM SOLID SELECTIONS

credits the the anonomous person responsible of this staking plan.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: puntz on 2003-08-16 14:49 ]</font>

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: puntz on 2003-08-22 13:27 ]</font>

[Chrome Prince]

The 9/4 staking plan is fine providing those 9/4 shots show a LEVEL stakes profit - otherwise you'll end up in the soup!

[puntz]

Thanks for noticing the light error C P.
It'meant to be 9/4 or better.

[partypooper]

The newspaper pre-post prices are really just "someones" ratings. Even using THE ABSOLUTE BEST RATINGS SERVICE IN THE COUNTRY" betting only overs, you would be borderline in producing a profit (proven time and time again) so how the hell are you going to win using the newspaper "FREE" pre-post prices?????, maybe with selective venues and or races, but with what guarantee of an on-going profit?????

[Super Fox]

Thanks guys. Can someone explain how to use the 9/4 system, I can't understand the 2,2,2,3,4,5,8,12,17,24,36. How many horses do you play?

BTW: I'm not dumb, just new to this.Thanks.

[Chrome Prince]

On 2003-08-20 22:31, Super Fox wrote:
Thanks guys. Can someone explain how to use the 9/4 system, I can't understand the 2,2,2,3,4,5,8,12,17,24,36. How many horses do you play?

BTW: I'm not dumb, just new to this.Thanks.


Super Fox,

The 9/4 staking plan is probably different to what you were asking for.

The principle is to back your selection when it is paying in excess of $3.25 on the tote or 9/4 with the bookies.

The 2,2,2,3,4,5,8,12,17,24,36 referred to is the number of units to bet after a loss.

Let's say you have five bets at over $3.25 with the first four bets losing and the fifth one winning paying $3.25.

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COLOR: #000000; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 0.5pt solid; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; TEXT-ALIGN: center">1</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #000000 0.5pt solid; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom; COLOR: #000000; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 0.5pt solid; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; TEXT-ALIGN: center">2</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #000000 0.5pt solid; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom; COLOR: #000000; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 0.5pt solid; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; TEXT-ALIGN: center"> </TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #000000 0.5pt solid; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom; COLOR: #000000; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 0.5pt solid; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; TEXT-ALIGN: center"> </TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #000000 0.5pt solid; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom; COLOR: #000000; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 0.5pt solid; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; TEXT-ALIGN: center">-2.00 </TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #000000 1.5pt solid; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom; COLOR: #000000; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 0.5pt solid; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; TEXT-ALIGN: center">-2.00 </TD></TR><TR><TD style="BORDER-TOP: #000000 0.5pt solid; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 0.5pt solid; COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: menu; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #d4d0c8" align=middle width="2%"><CENTER>3</CENTER></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #000000 0.5pt solid; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 1.5pt solid; COLOR: #000000; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 0.5pt solid; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; TEXT-ALIGN: center">MR2</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #000000 0.5pt solid; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom; COLOR: #000000; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 0.5pt solid; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; TEXT-ALIGN: center">3</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #000000 0.5pt solid; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom; COLOR: #000000; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 0.5pt solid; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; TEXT-ALIGN: center">2</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #000000 0.5pt solid; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom; COLOR: #000000; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 0.5pt solid; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; TEXT-ALIGN: center"> </TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #000000 0.5pt solid; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom; COLOR: #000000; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 0.5pt solid; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; TEXT-ALIGN: center"> </TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #000000 0.5pt solid; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom; COLOR: #000000; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 0.5pt solid; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; TEXT-ALIGN: center">-2.00 </TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #000000 1.5pt solid; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom; COLOR: #000000; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 0.5pt solid; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; TEXT-ALIGN: center">-4.00 </TD></TR><TR><TD style="BORDER-TOP: #000000 0.5pt solid; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 0.5pt solid; COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: menu; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #d4d0c8" align=middle width="2%"><CENTER>4</CENTER></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #000000 0.5pt solid; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 1.5pt solid; COLOR: #000000; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 0.5pt solid; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; TEXT-ALIGN: center">MR4</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #000000 0.5pt solid; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom; COLOR: #000000; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 0.5pt solid; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; TEXT-ALIGN: center">1</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #000000 0.5pt solid; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom; COLOR: #000000; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 0.5pt solid; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; TEXT-ALIGN: center">2</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #000000 0.5pt solid; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom; COLOR: #000000; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 0.5pt solid; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; TEXT-ALIGN: center"> </TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #000000 0.5pt solid; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom; COLOR: #000000; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 0.5pt solid; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; TEXT-ALIGN: center"> </TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #000000 0.5pt solid; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom; COLOR: #000000; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 0.5pt solid; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; TEXT-ALIGN: center">-2.00 </TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #000000 1.5pt solid; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom; COLOR: #000000; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 0.5pt solid; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; TEXT-ALIGN: center">-6.00 </TD></TR><TR><TD style="BORDER-TOP: #000000 0.5pt solid; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 0.5pt solid; COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: menu; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #d4d0c8" align=middle width="2%"><CENTER>5</CENTER></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #000000 0.5pt solid; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 1.5pt solid; COLOR: #000000; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 0.5pt solid; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; TEXT-ALIGN: center">MR5 </TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #000000 0.5pt solid; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom; COLOR: #000000; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 0.5pt solid; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; TEXT-ALIGN: center">2</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #000000 0.5pt solid; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom; COLOR: #000000; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 0.5pt solid; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; TEXT-ALIGN: center">3</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #000000 0.5pt solid; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom; COLOR: #000000; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 0.5pt solid; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; TEXT-ALIGN: center"> </TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #000000 0.5pt solid; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom; COLOR: #000000; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 0.5pt solid; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; TEXT-ALIGN: center"> </TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #000000 0.5pt solid; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom; COLOR: #000000; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 0.5pt solid; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; TEXT-ALIGN: center">-3.00 </TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #000000 1.5pt solid; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom; COLOR: #000000; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 0.5pt solid; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; TEXT-ALIGN: center">-9.00 </TD></TR><TR><TD style="BORDER-TOP: #000000 0.5pt solid; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 0.5pt solid; COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: menu; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #d4d0c8" align=middle width="2%"><CENTER>6</CENTER></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #000000 0.5pt solid; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 1.5pt solid; COLOR: #000000; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 1.5pt solid; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; TEXT-ALIGN: center">MR6</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #000000 0.5pt solid; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom; COLOR: #000000; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 1.5pt solid; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; TEXT-ALIGN: center">8</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #000000 0.5pt solid; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom; COLOR: #000000; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 1.5pt solid; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; TEXT-ALIGN: center">4</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #000000 0.5pt solid; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom; COLOR: #000000; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 1.5pt solid; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; TEXT-ALIGN: center">$3.25</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #000000 0.5pt solid; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom; COLOR: #000000; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 1.5pt solid; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; TEXT-ALIGN: center">9.00</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #000000 0.5pt solid; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom; COLOR: #000000; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 1.5pt solid; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; TEXT-ALIGN: center"> </TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #000000 1.5pt solid; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom; COLOR: #000000; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 1.5pt solid; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff; TEXT-ALIGN: center">0.00 </TD></TR><TR><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #000000 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: #808080 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 0.5pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #d4d0c8" colSpan=8><TABLE width="100%" align=left VALIGN="TOP"><TBODY><TR><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #000000 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: #808080 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 0.5pt solid; WIDTH: 120pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff" align=left><U>Sheet1</U></TD><TD> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<FONT color=#339966 size=1>[HtmlMaker 2.42] </FONT><FONT color=#339966 size=1>To see the formula in the cells just click on the cells hyperlink or click the Name box</FONT>
<FONT color=red size=1>PLEASE DO NOT QUOTE THIS TABLE IMAGE ON SAME PAGE! OTHEWISE, ERROR OF JavaScript OCCUR.</FONT></CENTER>

Therefore you just broke even, any price over $3.25 you make a profit.

Hope this helps.


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Chrome Prince on 2003-08-20 23:36 ]</font>

[puntz]

To further clarify,if you have funds,


2-2-2-3-4-5-8-12-17-24 AND 36 UNITS
or

20-20-20-30-40-50-80-120-170-240 AND 360 UNITS


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: puntz on 2003-08-22 13:16 ]</font>

[Stix]

Here's a thread that's been dusted up... (in my review of progressing betting)

I notice most people subscribe to a systems/ratings method (whatever method that fits your own punting profile) that produces a level stakes profit as the "preferred" or dominant approach to staking.

Does anyone here use progression betting?...successfully?

Progression betting from my limited reading and experience, IMHO requires :

nerves of steel
a healthy bank(s)
good strike rate (25%+)
good av. dividend
bucket loads of discipline and patience....in order to pay dividends.
I get the feeling there is a "get rich quick" stigma attached to a punter who uses progression betting.... but is that unfair?

If you bet "overs" and have a healthy strike rate, then surely this approach would be very profitable to 'you'......

If you bet progression to "strike" a number (i.e No.1, dog No.5, red/black etc.) then I think you are waving good by to your bank(s)....

Just hoping to "strike" anyone who uses progression betting as a norm. Would like to hear your thoughts

Thanks in advance

[darkydog2002]

With 1 particular "system "I use the" 6 point divisor plan".

Contrasting FLAT stakes 22% on TO against 58% with the 6 point plan.

Because the system is based on WT/ TIME /FIELD STRENGTH RATINGS ( that is - rated right up to TODAYS race) in this instance I would have no hesitation in recommending this particular staking plan.

That has been my experience.

Cheers.
darky.

[brownie]

Holy old posts Batman !!!

[darkydog2002]

Lets see if we can dig up AHJAYS ( the original AHJAY - Yep. there are 2 of em.

Cheers.
darky.

[crash]

I can't believe the amount of losing punters desperately trying to make new maths: 2+2 = 5 by 'special pleading' that old loss chasing fogy, progressive staking [a mathematical impossibility].
There is only one progressive staking method that works. Progressive staking after a win only if your can win at level stakes [never after a loss]. A progression after a loss will magnify your wins but will also magnify your losses and anyone contemplating progression staking has too many of those. Tilt.

Google to 'Dr. Maths' or any other of the maths sites and progressive staking is all doom and gloom. Maths, unlike stats cannot be manipulated. It's a hard task master of reality and it will shove 'special pleading' or 'strawman'
arguments right up your......if your silly enough to let it.

[Bhagwan]

Heres a staking plan that can work even on a -25% level stake loss.

Which according to the experts, cant possible be done, they say its impossible, cant be done , you are all mad. I`m the maths genious here ,not you!....Why wont you lot listen to me?


Now,for those who dont wish to listen.

LADDER STAKING PLAN
112233445566778899 ect.
Continue up the ladder, win, loose or draw, until in profit, then start again.
$930 bank needed for a run of 60 bets.
OR
$1640 bank needed for a run of 80 bets.

Try targeting the RadioTABQ first & second selections.
First 4 races only.
The Selection is the one remaining after deleting the TAB Fav. 1 min till jump.

Sometimes the Fav is not in one of these 2 selections , if this happens , bet the shorter price of the 2 so as long it is not the Fav .

What we are attempting to do, is chase some value & on its day , it does just that.

Check it out on past results first before using this.

Cheers.

[crash]

"LADDER STAKING PLAN
112233445566778899 ect.
Continue up the ladder, win, loose or draw, until in profit, then start again."

I bet the people who put these sort of ideas up don't use them. In fact they probably are just trying to boost the pools they sup from by trying to convince everyone else to use these 'progressive' ideas. Especially when these threads are continually being dragged up from years ago [this one 2003] :-)

If we have a run of outs of 17 on the above ladder and say our units are $10 [for the bets to be meaningful], we would be having a $90 bet on our 18th. bet to recover [chasing our losses] $810 plus our $90 bet. We need a $9 winner just to get back to where we started from. For $20 units [more meaningful] we a into serious high risk punting. God help you if you like $100 unit bets.

The problem with these 'mild' progressions is they look safe and sensible, but their down side is the punter is quickly chasing higher and higher odds to break even let alone turn a profit. If our 18th. bet loses we are having a $100 bet to recover $1000 and now need a $10 winner to break even. It all gets out of hand very quickly, especially when you get into the 'etc' area of the above ladder. Even for a run of ten outs you have punted $300 and your next bet of $60 needs a winner paying $3.60 to break even [forget profit].

I used to believe in the 'reasoning' of progressive staking because I'm certainly no maths star [far from it], but after reading articles from real mathematicians I've jumped off the believer's ship.

At this stage proponents are saying a run of 18 outs and probably even 10 outs is impossible. Yep, sure thing :-)

[brownie]

At this stage proponents are saying a run of 18 outs and probably even 10 outs is impossible. Yep, sure thing :-)

A newbie would certainly believe that a run of 18 outs just couldn't happen.
Thats just doom and gloom statisticians talk :)
I used to keep track of favs while at work and have seen 2 lovely runs of 17 and 23

[Stix]

I can't believe the amount of losing punters desperately trying to make new maths: 2+2 = 5 by 'special pleading' that old loss chasing fogy, progressive staking [a mathematical impossibility].
There is only one progressive staking method that works. Progressive staking after a win only if your can win at level stakes [never after a loss]. A progression after a loss will magnify your wins but will also magnify your losses and anyone contemplating progression staking has too many of those. Tilt.

Google to 'Dr. Maths' or any other of the maths sites and progressive staking is all doom and gloom. Maths, unlike stats cannot be manipulated. It's a hard task master of reality and it will shove 'special pleading' or 'strawman'
arguments right up your......if your silly enough to let it.As I said, just doing some research into progressive staking.

I am a level staking man.... always have been.... probably always will... as my punting profile does not like to "extrapolate" my turnover based on my performance on any given day in order to turn a profit...(i can take the good with the bad).... my stomach just wouldn't be able to take a bet 5/6/7/8 times my "normal" stake on any particular race.....

As I've said I'm a novice when it comes to "staking/progression" plans and appreciate the feed back from you guys........ so I can take it all in and make up my own mind on whether another staking method is appropriate.... I'm still think that a staking plan with a good strike rate (and steely resolve) could improve a punters POT....

It works for darky using the 6 point plan, I'm just fishing for anyone else who has found it works for them.......anyone?

I've tried testing a few progression plans on my past results without much deviation at all.... which leaves me (at this stage) quite comfortable with "my" approach.....

Thanks, but keep the feed back coming.... ;)

[crash]

Oh I agree Stix, look at everything people like and yes there are people who have been using a progression system and it's [so far] working fine without a big losing run striking them down.

We should also note a bit of history here. During the middle ages a lot of people were never struck down by the plague either. Luck is a double edged sword, I like to take the maths onboard before I play with it.

[Stix]

Oh I agree Stix, look at everything people like and yes there are people who have been using a progression system and it's [so far] working fine without a big losing run striking them down.

We should also note a bit of history here. During the middle ages a lot of people were never struck down by the plague either. Luck is a double edged sword, I like to take the maths onboard before I play with it.Crash

I like the 6 P's apporach myself, rather than relying on or benefiting from luck..... Prior Planning Prevents P*ss Poor Performance..... ;)

[BJ]

I will stick my hand up and say that I use a loss chasing system. I back a horse in every race on my card, usually about 30-40 per day average.

It has been argued over and over again that you cannot turn a loss at level stakes into a profit by simply using a progressive staking system. All it does is magnify the loss. But if you are profiting on level stakes, then I cannot see why this same system wouldn't now magnify your wins.

I must stress though that my system is designed personally, and is not trying to make a profit from one race (ie 10 losses in a row, then a winner to put you in front).
Mine relies on the fact that I am winning level stakes anyway, so it is just trying to increase my POT just a fraction.
I must say that doing this I have been going almost 12 months, turned over more than 1 million dollars, and have kept going through some really really bad losing streaks, and I have not looked at a form guide as of yet. In fact I only really ever know which one I backed by the number....

Not trying to suggest that I am guaranteed to keep winning, in fact it is always in the back of my mind that there is always a bigger losing streak on the way and could possibly wipe out everything.
That is why every time I increase my bank and increase my stake, I am always that little bit safer, and am betting a smaller % of the bank.

I am currently going through 1 of my worst periods since I started, so am very stressed about the whole situation, but am confident that I have set it up properly to see the other side.

It is a rollercoaster ride, both financially and emotionally, but as long as you start with a plan and a bank THAT YOU ARE PREPARED TO LOSE then it should all be good.
Expect to lose your bank, it is gambling after all. I do prepare for that every day.
If you make profits, take some money out, put it to something. Don't blow it like you have a never ending supply. Use it....

[Stix]

I will stick my hand up and say that I use a loss chasing system. I back a horse in every race on my card, usually about 30-40 per day average.

BJ

Appreciate your view.

When you say 30-40 bets a day - You obviously subscribe to the "there is more than one winner" on any given day philosphy rather than the once you make a profit for the day you stop and start again tomorrow philosphy? Am I right?

Good Luck....

[BJ]

BJ

Appreciate your view.

When you say 30-40 bets a day - You obviously subscribe to the "there is more than one winner" on any given day philosphy rather than the once you make a profit for the day you stop and start again tomorrow philosphy? Am I right?

Good Luck....

I believe that if I have an advantage, then the more bets I place, the more money I turnover, hence the more money I make.
On the other hand, if I don't have an advantage, then I would prefer to get it over with as quickly as possible so I could move on to my next venture. Which hopefully will never happen.

I also find that my selections win and lose in runs. I seem to have more days where I win a considerable amount or lose a considerable amount as opposed to breaking even. Either a good or bad day...
Therefore by quitting early on a winning day, I would think that I am prematurely cutting my run short.

Probably just a pschological thing. I don't like missing races whilst my bet is above the base. But I also know that regardless of the races I miss out on, they will even out as good days and bad days.
I am not the kind of person that if I happen to miss a race or a day, to check the results to see what might have been. I prefer to think that if I didn't bet on a race, then it never really happened. (Just like after a night out, if I don't remember doing something, then it never really happened.... :) )...

I only bet on races that BF has a market on, and at this stage have limited myself to Australian gallops races... So that is my 30-40 races per day.

Because I use such a non aggressive staking system, it takes a long time to recoup my losses. Therefore I see a day as more a short series of races as opposed to a start and end. It might take my system 3 months to get back to base, therefore I will never stop my day short when I am in front.

[crash]

That's a quick turn-around BJ. 30-40 bets a day!!
What happened to looking for 'value' bets? You must have great eye-sight to find that much value in 30-40 bets a day. Who's your optometrist? I wouldn't mind that sort of eyesight:-)

[BJ]

That's a quick turn-around BJ. 30-40 bets a day!!
What happened to looking for 'value' bets? You must have great eye-sight to find that much value in 30-40 bets a day. Who's your optometrist? I wouldn't mind that sort of eyesight:-)

I am trying to get value another way.

Doesn't mean that I don't know that value is the way to go for people able to rate a race.
Obviously there are extremes, and if you are on the right end of the extreme with your ability to rate a race then you are laughing all the way to the bank.
I don't have that luxury. I use the average of all ratings, and go from there..

[wesmip1]

BJ,

Congrats on finding a method that works for you.
I hope it keeps working, as it looks like you found an angle you can exploit.

Good Luck.

[Stix]

IMHO, a systems punter would be more likely to use progression staking than a ratings/form punter...... given the intimate (reliant/dependant) relationship between systems and mathematics?

What do you think? (no offence intended)

[crash]

Stix,
That's an interesting conclusion. Could you clarify why a system's punter is more associated with mathematics than a non-system's punter?

[Bhagwan]

With the ladder staking , the idea is to win approx half the odds back to get in front as opposed to level stakes which has to win 100% of the odds to outlay, just to break even.
As stated . If a winner gets up but does not put us in front , we just keep going up the ladder, this has the affect of crushing the odds to our favour on the winners .
You will notice the last digit of each pair equates to the odds needed to break even on the sequence, interestingly enough.
e.g.112233445566778899,10,10,11,11,12,12=156
Run of 24 , one would need combined odds of 23/1 just to break even ,at level stakes . But with this staking plan , one would need odds of 12/1 to break even. thats a big difference.

Check it out on paper first, to see how the figures fall.

Cheers.

[crash]

Bagman,

Your logic 'as presented' is very sound. No argument there. However [oh that word], you are presenting the flat stakes punter in your figures as chasing his losses, which he isn't of course in the way you have presented him [needs a 23/1 shot]. Your progression punter on the other hand is now chasing a 12/1 shot as you correctly point out. What are the potential runs of outs for a 12/1 chance? You see your punter with every progression is also progressing his potential runs of outs also. Nasty.

Where the flat stakes punter is always going to be ahead is when runs of outs strike, especially a large one. When runs of ins strike the progression punter has no advantage whatsoever [no progressions]. Punting is a war of attrition, throwing larger and larger sums of money at a problem [losing] will not win the war. Just look where the progressive punter George Bush is heading in Iraq ....without a paddle :-)

Cheers.

[Stix]

Stix,
That's an interesting conclusion. Could you clarify why a system's punter is more associated with mathematics than a non-system's punter?Crash

In my (limited) experience with systems - I think that when building a system, the foundation and iteration process relies on greater mathematical rationing (application of probabilities, rules and discrete arguments, etc) . Mathematics is intrinscally inherent in the formation, evloution and evaluation of the system, then too it follows that progressive (or some form of mathematical) staking plan would be employed....

Where as ratings/handicapping/form which, although incorporates some of these mathematic elements is not heavily weighed when formulating selections.... and is based with a more "human" element and progressive staking would be less likely employed....

.... in my opinion....

[crash]

I see your point Stix, but if you broaden it a little you'll see many ratings are heavily based on maths.
Perhaps your confusing ratings with handicapping a bit, although hadicapping can and often is used in ratings, or indeed used to arrive at a rating figure. There are many approaches possible. The ratings that I use as a guide to handicapping are 100% mathematically arrived at so maths is very important. They serve me as well as anyone else's. They are only a beginning point of selecting potential winners but nowhere near the final point. For this punter anyway.