2016 Melbourne Cup

[Sands]

Tuesday 1 November, 2016 - Nominations

No Horse Trainer
1 Almandin (Ger) Robert Hickmott
2 Almoonqith (USA) David & B Hayes & T Dabernig
3 Aloft (Ire) Robert Hickmott
4 Alpine Eagle Tony McEvoy
5 Amexed (NZ) Tony Gollan
6 Antonio Giuseppe (NZ) Chris Waller
7 Arab Dawn (GB) John O'Shea
8 Assign (Ire) Robert Hickmott
9 Authoritarian Lee & Anthony Freedman
10 Azurite (Ire) Tony McEvoy
11 Barsanti (Ire) Roger Varian
12 Battlecamp (NZ) Lee & Anthony Freedman
13 Beautiful Romance (GB) Saeed Bin Suroor
14 Berisha Robert Smerdon
15 Big Orange (GB) Michael Bell
16 Bold Sniper (GB) David & B Hayes & T Dabernig
17 Bondi Beach (Ire) Aidan O'Brien
18 Clondaw Warrior (Ire) William Mullins
19 Cool Chap Lee & Anthony Freedman
20 Curren Mirotic (Jpn) Osamu Hirata
21 Da Big Hoss (USA) Michael J Maker
22 Dandy Gent Terry & Karina O'Sullivan
23 Dane Hussler David & B Hayes & T Dabernig
24 Danjeu (Ire) John P Thompson
25 Darlux (Fr) Brian McGrath
26 De Little Engine Danny O'Brien
27 Dee I Cee (NZ) Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott
28 Divan (NZ) Robert Hickmott
29 Dreaded (NZ) Lee & Anthony Freedman
30 Elite Army (GB) Saeed Bin Suroor
31 Erupt (Ire) Francis-Henri Graffard
32 Escado Matt Laurie
33 Excess Knowledge (GB) Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott
34 Exosphere (GB) Sir Michael Stoute
35 Extra Choice (NZ) David & B Hayes & T Dabernig
36 Fanatic (NZ) Graeme Sanders
37 Foundry (Ire) Robert Hickmott
38 Francis Of Assisi (Ire) Charlie Appleby
39 Gabella (Fr) David & B Hayes & T Dabernig
40 Gallante (Ire) Robert Hickmott
41 Grand Marshal (GB) Chris Waller
42 Grey Lion (Ire) Matt Cumani
43 Gust Of Wind (NZ) John Sargent
44 Hans Holbein (GB) Robert Hickmott
45 Hartnell (GB) John O'Shea
46 Hauraki John O'Shea
47 Heartbreak City (Fr) Tony Martin
48 Heavens Above Tim Martin
49 He's Our Rokkii (NZ) David & B Hayes & T Dabernig
50 Hi World Lee & Anthony Freedman
51 Housesofparliament (Ire) Aidan O'Brien
52 Howard Be Thy Name Darren Weir
53 Idaho (Ire) Aidan O'Brien
54 Important Message (GB) Saeed Bin Suroor
55 Jameka Ciaron Maher
56 Kilimanjaro (Ire) Robert Hickmott
57 Kinema (Ire) Ralph Beckett
58 Lord Disick Michael Moroney
59 Lord Macau Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott
60 Manatee (GB) John O'Shea
61 Manndawi (Fr) Darren Weir
62 Master Zephyr (GB) Darren Weir
63 Mime (NZ) Murray Baker & Andrew Forsman
64 Miss Rose De Lago Danny O'Brien
65 Nozomi Lee & Anthony Freedman
66 Observational (GB) Robert Hickmott
67 Oceanographer (GB) Charlie Appleby
68 O'lonera Cindy Alderson
69 Orbec (Fr) John P Thompson
70 Order Of St George (Ire) Aidan O'Brien
71 Our Ivanhowe (Ger) Lee & Anthony Freedman
72 Pemberley (NZ) Ciaron Maher
73 Pentathlon (NZ) John Wheeler
74 Plymouth Road (NZ) Lee & Anthony Freedman
75 Preferment (NZ) Chris Waller
76 Prince Of Penzance (NZ) Darren Weir
77 Protectionist (Ger) Andreas Wohler
78 Provocative (NZ) Tony Pike
79 Qewy (Ire) Charlie Appleby
80 Raw Impulse (GB) Darren Weir
81 Real Love Darren Weir
82 Red Cardinal (Ire) Andreas Wohler
83 Replique (NZ) Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott
84 Rising Romance (NZ) David & B Hayes & T Dabernig
85 Rose Of Virginia (NZ) Lee & Shannon Hope
86 Ruling Dynasty James Cummings
87 Sacred Master (NZ) Chris Waller
88 Sarrasin (GB) Lee & Anthony Freedman
89 Scherzoso Tony McEvoy
90 Scottish (Ire) Charlie Appleby
91 Second Bullet Danny O'Brien
92 Second Wave (Ire) Charlie Appleby
93 Secret Number (GB) Saeed Bin Suroor
94 Set Square Ciaron Maher
95 Shamkiyr (Fr) Darren Weir
96 Shimrano (Ger) Lee & Anthony Freedman
97 Signoff (Ire) Darren Weir
98 Singing (Fr) Kris Lees
99 Sir John Hawkwood (Ire) John P Thompson
100 Sky Hunter (GB) Saeed Bin Suroor
101 Spiritjim (Fr) Chris Waller
102 Stone Warrior (NZ) Lee & Anthony Freedman
103 Storm The Stars (USA) Chris Waller
104 Swacadelic (Ger) Aaron Purcell
105 Sword Fighter (Ire) Aidan O'Brien
106 Tall Ship (Ire) Darren Weir
107 Tally John O'Shea
108 Tarzino (NZ) Mick Price
109 Tavago (NZ) Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young
110 The Bandit (Jpn) John Sadler
111 The Major General (Ire) Aidan O'Brien
112 The United States (Ire) Robert Hickmott
113 Thunder Down Under Chris Waller
114 Tom Melbourne (Ire) Lee & Anthony Freedman
115 Tosen Stardom (Jpn) Darren Weir
116 Trip To Paris (Ire) Ed Dunlop
117 Trip To Rhodos (Fr) Pavel Tuma
118 Tunes Grant Young
119 Unicorn (Ire) Aidan O'Brien
120 Vengeur Masque (Ire) Michael Moroney
121 White Dollar Sign John Thom
122 Who Shot Thebarman (NZ) Chris Waller
123 Wicklow Brave (GB) William Mullins
124 Zanteca (NZ) Darren Weir

[walkermac]

Order of entry

Passed 2016 Emirates Melbourne Cup first ballot clause as at 26 Sept 2016

1 ORDER OF ST GEORGE (IRE) (Aidan O'Brien) 58.0 -1.5
2 PROTECTIONIST (GER) (Andreas Wohler) 58.0 -1.5
3 IDAHO (IRE) (Aidan O'Brien) 53.0 -2.5
4 PRINCE OF PENZANCE (NZ) (Darren Weir) 56.5 -3.0
5 PREFERMENT (NZ) (Chris Waller) 56.5 -3.0
6 BIG ORANGE (GB) (Michael Bell) 56.0 -3.5
7 ERUPT (IRE) (Francis-Henri Graffard) 56.0 -3.5
8 OUR IVANHOWE (GER) (Lee & Anthony Freedman) 56.0 -3.5
9 CURREN MIROTIC (JPN) (Osamu Hirata) 55.5 -4.0
10 TAVAGO (NZ) (Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young) 54.0 -4.0
11 TARZINO (NZ) (Mick Price) 54.0 -4.0
12 THE UNITED STATES (IRE) (Robert Hickmott) 55.5 -4.0
13 DA BIG HOSS (USA) (Michael Maker) 55.0 -4.5
14 JAMEKA (Ciaron Maher) 52.0 (inc 0.5kg pen) -4.5
15 HARTNELL (GB) (John O'Shea) 55.0 -4.5
16 WHO SHOT THEBARMAN (NZ) (Chris Waller) 55.0 -4.5
17 WICKLOW BRAVE (GB) (Willie Mullins) 55.0 -4.5
18 BONDI BEACH (IRE) (Aidan O'Brien) 55.0 -4.5
19 EXOSPHERE (GB) (Lee and Anthony Freedman) 55.0 -4.5
20 SCOTTISH (IRE) (Charlie Appleby) 54.5 -5.0
21 TRIP TO PARIS (IRE) (Ed Dunlop) 54.0 -5.5
22 HAURAKI (John O'Shea) 54.0 -5.5
23 MANATEE (GB) (John O'Shea) 54.0 -5.5
24 TALLY (John O'Shea) 52.5 -5.5
25 RISING ROMANCE (NZ) (D & B Hayes & T Dabernig) 52.5 -5.5
26 GRAND MARSHAL (GB) (Chris Waller) 53.5 -6.0
27 GALLANTE (IRE) (Robert Hickmott) 53.5 -6.0
28 STORM THE STARS (USA) (Chris Waller) 53.5 -6.0
29 GUST OF WIND (NZ) (John Sargent) 52.0 -6.0
30 ALMOONQITH (USA) (D & B Hayes and T Dabernig) 53.5 -6.0
31 HOUSESOFPARLIAMENT (IRE) (Aidan O'Brien) 50.0 -6.0
32 PROVOCATIVE (NZ) (Tony Pike) 50.5 -6.0
33 SIGNOFF (IRE) (Darren Weir) 53.5 -6.0
34 HEARTBREAK CITY (FR) (Tony Martin) 53.0 -6.5
35 HOWARD BE THY NAME (Darren Weir) 51.5 -6.5
36 BEAUTIFUL ROMANCE (GB) (Saeed bin Suroor) 51.5 -6.5
37 REAL LOVE (Darren Weir) 51.5 -6.5
38 SPIRITJIM (FR) (Chris Waller) 53.0 -6.5
39 EXCESS KNOWLEDGE (GB) (Waterhouse & Bott) 52.5 -7.0
40 SWORD FIGHTER (IRE) (Aidan O'Brien) 50.0 -7.0
41 SKY HUNTER (GB) (Saeed bin Suroor) 52.5 -7.0
42 FANATIC (NZ) (Graeme Sanders) 50.0 -7.0
43 SIR JOHN HAWKWOOD (IRE) (John Thompson) 51.5 -8.0
44 COOL CHAP (Lee & Anthony Freedman) 50.0 -8.0
45 ESCADO (Matt Laurie) 51.5 -8.0
46 CLONDAW WARRIOR (IRE) (Willie Mullins) 51.5 -8.0
47 ZANTECA (NZ) (Darren Weir) 50.0 -8.0
48 TALL SHIP (IRE) (Darren Weir) 51.0 -8.5
49 SECRET NUMBER (GB) (Saeed bin Suroor) 51.0 -8.5
50 SACRED MASTER (NZ) (Chris Waller) 51.0 -8.5
51 ELITE ARMY (GB) (Saeed bin Suroor) 51.0 -8.5
52 GREY LION (IRE) (Matt Cumani) 51.0 -8.5
53 PENTATHLON (NZ) (John Wheeler) 50.5 -9.0
54 BERISHA (Robert Smerdon) 50.0 -9.5
55 AUTHORITARIAN (Lee & Anthony Freedman) 50.0 -9.5
56 ROSE OF VIRGINIA (NZ) (Lee & Shannon Hope) 50.0 -9.5
57 AMEXED (NZ) (Tony Gollan) 50.0 -9.5
58 KILIMANJARO (IRE) (Robert Hickmott) 50.0 -9.5
59 ALOFT (IRE) (Robert Hickmott) 50.0 -9.5
60 SWACADELIC (GER) (Aaron Purcell) 50.0 -9.5
61 THE MAJOR GENERAL (IRE) (Aidan O'Brien) 50.0 -9.5
62 HANS HOLBEIN (GB) (Robert Hickmott) 50.0 -9.5
63 TUNES (Grant Young) 50.0 -9.5
64 ALMANDIN (GER) (Robert Hickmott) 50.0 -9.5
65 SARRASIN (GB) (Lee & Anthony Freedman) 50.0 -9.5
66 RULING DYNASTY (James Cummings) 50.0 -9.5
67 RED CARDINAL (IRE) (Andreas Wohler) 50.0 -9.5
68 DIVAN (NZ) (Robert Hickmott) 50.0 -9.5
69 MANNDAWI (FR) (Darren Weir) 50.0 -9.5
70 ARAB DAWN (GB) (John O'Shea) 50.0 -9.5
71 SINGING (FR) (Kris Lees) 50.0 -9.5


NOT Passed 2016 Emirates Melbourne Cup first ballot clause as at 26 Sept 2016

TOSEN STARDOM (JPN) (Darren Weir) 53.5 -6.0
SET SQUARE (Ciaron Maher) 51.5 -6.5
ALPINE EAGLE (Tony McEvoy) 52.5 -7.0
HE'S OUR ROKKII (NZ) (D & B Hayes & T Dabernig) 51.0 -7.0
BARSANTI (IRE) (Roger Varian) 51.5 -8.0
MISS ROSE DE LAGO (Danny O'Brien) 50.0 -8.0
HEAVENS ABOVE (Tim Martin) 50.0 -8.5
MIME (NZ) (Murray Baker & Andrew Forsman) 50.0 -8.5
SHIMRANO (GER) (Lee & Anthony Freedman) 51.0 -8.5
OBSERVATIONAL (GB) (Robert Hickmott) 50.5 -9.0
ANTONIO GIUSEPPE (NZ) (Chris Waller) 50.0 -9.5
ASSIGN (IRE) (Robert Hickmott) 50.0 -9.5
AZURITE (IRE) (Tony McEvoy) 50.0 -9.5
BATTLECAMP (NZ) (Lee & Anthony Freedman) 50.0 -9.5
BOLD SNIPER (GB) (D & B Hayes & T Dabernig) 50.0 -9.5
DANDY GENT (Terry & Karina O'Sullivan) 50.0 -9.5
DANE HUSSLER (D & B Hayes & T Dabernig) 50.0 -9.5
DANJEU (IRE) (John Thompson) 50.0 -9.5
DARLUX (FR) (Brian McGrath) 50.0 -9.5
DE LITTLE ENGINE (Danny O'Brien) 50.0 -9.5
DEE I CEE (NZ) (Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott) 50.0 -9.5
DREADED (NZ) (Lee & Anthony Freedman) 50.0 -9.5
EXTRA CHOICE (NZ) (D & B Hayes & T Dabernig) 50.0 -9.5
FOUNDRY (IRE) (Robert Hickmott) 50.0 -9.5
FRANCIS OF ASSISI (IRE) (Charlie Appleby) 50.0 -9.5
GABELLA (FR) (D & B Hayes & T Dabernig) 50.0 -9.5
HI WORLD (Lee & Anthony Freedman) 50.0 -9.5
IMPORTANT MESSAGE (GB) (Saeed bin Suroor) 50.0 -9.5
KINEMA (IRE) (Ralph Beckett) 50.0 -9.5
LORD DISICK (Michael Moroney) 50.0 -9.5
LORD MACAU (Waterhouse and Bott) 49.0 -9.5
MASTER ZEPHYR (GB) (Darren Weir) 50.0 -9.5
NOZOMI (Lee & Anthony Freedman) 50.0 -9.5
OCEANOGRAPHER (GB) (Charlie Appleby) 50.0 -9.5
O'LONERA (Cindy Alderson) 50.0 -9.5
PEMBERLEY (NZ) (Ciaron Maher) 50.0 -9.5
PLYMOUTH ROAD (NZ) (Lee & Anthony Freedman) 50.0 -9.5
QEWY (IRE) (Charlie Appleby) 50.0 -9.5
RAW IMPULSE (GB) (Darren Weir) 50.0 -9.5
REPLIQUE (NZ) (Waterhouse & Bott) 50.0 -9.5
SCHERZOSO (Tony McEvoy) 50.0 -9.5
SECOND BULLET (Danny O'Brien) 50.0 -9.5
SECOND WAVE (IRE) (Charlie Appleby) 50.0 -9.5
SHAMKIYR (FR) (Darren Weir) 50.0 -9.5
STONE WARRIOR (NZ) (Lee & Anthony Freedman) 50.0 -9.5
THE BANDIT (JPN) (John Sadler) 50.0 -9.5
THUNDER DOWN UNDER (Chris Waller) 50.0 -9.5
TOM MELBOURNE (IRE) (Lee & Anthony Freedman) 50.0 -9.5
UNICORN (IRE) (Aidan O'Brien) 50.0 -9.5
VENGEUR MASQUE (IRE) (Michael Moroney) 50.0 -9.5
WHITE DOLLAR SIGN (John Thom) 50.0 -9.5


Win one of the following and you can accept an automatic entry: The Bart Cummings, Caulfield Cup, Cox Plate, The Lexus Stakes.

Otherwise, I believe the only remaining ways to move to the Passed list are:
win or place 2nd or 3rd in an internationally recognised Group or Graded flat race run over 2300 metres or further
place 4th or 5th in an internationally recognised Group 1 or Grade 1 flat race run over 2300 metres or further in which horses older than 3 years old could run
win an internationally recognised Listed flat race run over 2300 metres or further
win the Cesarewitch Handicap (UK, 8th October). Entered and on list of Melbourne Cup nominations: IMPORTANT MESSAGE


Eligible races in Australia:
Oct 1 - THE METROPOLITAN (2400m G1 Hcp; 1st-3rd)
Oct 2 - THE BART CUMMINGS (2500m G3 Qlty; 1st-3rd)
Oct 8 - HERBERT POWER STAKES (2400m G2 Qlty; 1st-3rd)
Oct 15 - BMW CAULFIELD CUP (2400m G1 Hcp; 1st-5th)
Oct 15 - CITY TATT'S CLUB CUP (2500m Listed Hcp; 1st)
Oct 19 - GEELONG CUP (2400m G3 Hcp; 1st-3rd)
Oct 22 - MOONEE VALLEY GOLD CUP (2500m G2 Swp; 1st-3rd)
Oct 26 - BENDIGO CUP (2400m G3 Hcp; 1st-3rd)
Oct 29 - AAMI VICTORIA DERBY (2500m G1 Sw; 1st-3rd)
Oct 29 - LEXUS STAKES (2500m 2500m G3 Qlty; 1st-3rd)

[Sands]

Tuesday 1 November, 2016 - 1st Acceptances


No Horse Trainer Order of Entry Weight
1 Prince Of Penzance (NZ) Darren Weir 2 56.5
2 Preferment (NZ) Chris Waller 3 56.5
3 Big Orange (GB) Michael Bell 4 56
4 Our Ivanhowe (Ger) Lee & Anthony Freedman 5 56
5 Curren Mirotic (Jpn) Osamu Hirata 6 55.5
6 The United States (Ire) Robert Hickmott 8 55.5
7 Hartnell (GB) John O'Shea 9 55
8 Who Shot Thebarman (NZ) Chris Waller 11 55
9 Wicklow Brave (GB) William Mullins 12 55
10 Bondi Beach (Ire) Aidan O'Brien 13 55
11 Exosphere (GB) Lee & Anthony Freedman 14 55
12 Scottish (Ire) Charlie Appleby 15 54.5
13 Tarzino (NZ) Mick Price 7 54
14 Grand Marshal (GB) Chris Waller 17 53.5
15 Gallante (Ire) Robert Hickmott 18 53.5
16 Almoonqith (USA) David & B Hayes & T Dabernig 19 53.5
17 Tosen Stardom (Jpn) Darren Weir 37 53.5
18 Sir John Hawkwood (Ire) John P Thompson 21 53
19 Heartbreak City (Fr) Tony Martin 22 53
20 Tally John O'Shea 16 52.5
21 Excess Knowledge (GB) Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott 25 52.5
22 Jameka Ciaron Maher 10 52
23 Real Love Darren Weir 20 52
24 Howard Be Thy Name Darren Weir 23 51.5
25 Beautiful Romance (GB) Saeed Bin Suroor 24 51.5
26 Set Square Ciaron Maher 38 51.5
27 Almandin (Ger) Robert Hickmott 1 51
28 Sacred Master (NZ) Chris Waller 28 51
29 Secret Number (GB) Saeed Bin Suroor 29 51
30 Grey Lion (Ire) Matt Cumani 30 51
31 Pentathlon (NZ) John Wheeler 31 50.5
32 Fanatic (NZ) Graeme Sanders 26 50
33 Zanteca (NZ) Darren Weir 27 50
34 Antonio Giuseppe (NZ) Chris Waller 32 50
35 Rose Of Virginia (NZ) Lee & Shannon Hope 33 50
36 Aloft (Ire) Robert Hickmott 34 50
37 Manndawi (Fr) Darren Weir 35 50
38 Arab Dawn (GB) John O'Shea 36 50
39 Assign (Ire) Robert Hickmott =39 50
40 Dandy Gent Terry & Karina O'Sullivan =39 50
41 De Little Engine Danny O'Brien =39 50
42 Foundry (Ire) Robert Hickmott =39 50
43 Francis Of Assisi (Ire) Charlie Appleby =39 50
44 Master Zephyr (GB) Darren Weir =39 50
45 Oceanographer (GB) Charlie Appleby =39 50
46 Pemberley (NZ) Ciaron Maher =39 50
47 Qewy (Ire) Charlie Appleby =39 50
48 Second Wave (Ire) Charlie Appleby =39 50
49 The Bandit (Jpn) John Sadler =39 50
50 Tom Melbourne (Ire) Lee & Anthony Freedman =39 50
51 Vengeur Masque (Ire) Michael Moroney =39 50
52 White Dollar Sign John Thom =39 50

[walkermac]

Order of entry

Passed 2016 Emirates Melbourne Cup first ballot clause as at 4 Oct 2016

1 ALMANDIN (GER) (Robert Hickmott) 51.0 (inc 1.0kg pen) -8.5
2 PRINCE OF PENZANCE (NZ) (Darren Weir) 56.5 -3.0
3 PREFERMENT (NZ) (Chris Waller) 56.5 -3.0
4 BIG ORANGE (GB) (Michael Bell) 56.0 -3.5
5 OUR IVANHOWE (GER) (Lee & Anthony Freedman) 56.0 -3.5
6 CURREN MIROTIC (JPN) (Osamu Hirata) 55.5 -4.0
7 TARZINO (NZ) (Mick Price) 54.0 -4.0
8 THE UNITED STATES (IRE) (Robert Hickmott) 55.5 -4.0
9 HARTNELL (GB) (John O'Shea) 55.0 -4.5
10 JAMEKA (Ciaron Maher) 52.0 (inc 0.5kg pen) -4.5
11 WHO SHOT THEBARMAN (NZ) (Chris Waller) 55.0 -4.5
12 WICKLOW BRAVE (GB) (Willie Mullins) 55.0 -4.5
13 BONDI BEACH (IRE) (Aidan O'Brien) 55.0 -4.5
14 EXOSPHERE (GB) (Lee and Anthony Freedman) 55.0 -4.5
15 SCOTTISH (IRE) (Charlie Appleby) 54.5 -5.0
16 TALLY (John O'Shea) 52.5 -5.5
17 GRAND MARSHAL (GB) (Chris Waller) 53.5 -6.0
18 GALLANTE (IRE) (Robert Hickmott) 53.5 -6.0
19 ALMOONQITH (USA) (D & B Hayes and T Dabernig) 53.5 -6.0
20 REAL LOVE (Darren Weir) 52.0 (inc 0.5kg pen) -6.0
21 SIR JOHN HAWKWOOD (IRE) (John Thompson) 53.0 (inc 1.5kg pen) -6.5
22 HEARTBREAK CITY (FR) (Tony Martin) 53.0 -6.5
23 HOWARD BE THY NAME (Darren Weir) 51.5 -6.5
24 BEAUTIFUL ROMANCE (GB) (Saeed bin Suroor) 51.5 -6.5
25 EXCESS KNOWLEDGE (GB) (Waterhouse & Bott) 52.5 -7.0
26 FANATIC (NZ) (Graeme Sanders) 50.0 -7.0
27 ZANTECA (NZ) (Darren Weir) 50.0 -8.0
28 SACRED MASTER (NZ) (Chris Waller) 51.0 -8.5
29 SECRET NUMBER (GB) (Saeed bin Suroor) 51.0 -8.5
30 GREY LION (IRE) (Matt Cumani) 51.0 -8.5
31 PENTATHLON (NZ) (John Wheeler) 50.5 -9.0
32 ANTONIO GIUSEPPE (NZ) (Chris Waller) 50.0 -9.5
33 ROSE OF VIRGINIA (NZ) (Lee & Shannon Hope) 50.0 -9.5
34 ALOFT (IRE) (Robert Hickmott) 50.0 -9.5
35 MANNDAWI (FR) (Darren Weir) 50.0 -9.5
36 ARAB DAWN (GB) (John O'Shea) 50.0 -9.5


NOT Passed 2016 Emirates Melbourne Cup first ballot clause as at 4 Oct 2016

TOSEN STARDOM (JPN) (Darren Weir) 53.5 -6.0
SET SQUARE (Ciaron Maher) 51.5 -6.5
ASSIGN (IRE) (Robert Hickmott) 50.0 -9.5
DANDY GENT (Terry & Karina O'Sullivan) 50.0 -9.5
DE LITTLE ENGINE (Danny O'Brien) 50.0 -9.5
FOUNDRY (IRE) (Robert Hickmott) 50.0 -9.5
FRANCIS OF ASSISI (IRE) (Charlie Appleby) 50.0 -9.5
MASTER ZEPHYR (GB) (Darren Weir) 50.0 -9.5
NOZOMI (Lee & Anthony Freedman) 50.0 -9.5
OCEANOGRAPHER (GB) (Charlie Appleby) 50.0 -9.5
PEMBERLEY (NZ) (Ciaron Maher) 50.0 -9.5
QEWY (IRE) (Charlie Appleby) 50.0 -9.5
SECOND WAVE (IRE) (Charlie Appleby) 50.0 -9.5
THE BANDIT (JPN) (John Sadler) 50.0 -9.5
TOM MELBOURNE (IRE) (Lee & Anthony Freedman) 50.0 -9.5
VENGEUR MASQUE (IRE) (Michael Moroney) 50.0 -9.5
WHITE DOLLAR SIGN (John Thom) 50.0 -9.5


Win one of the following and you can accept an automatic entry: <strike>The Bart Cummings</strike>, Caulfield Cup, Cox Plate, The Lexus Stakes.

Otherwise, I believe the only remaining ways to move to the Passed list are:
win or place 2nd or 3rd in an internationally recognised Group or Graded flat race run over 2300 metres or further
place 4th or 5th in an internationally recognised Group 1 or Grade 1 flat race run over 2300 metres or further in which horses older than 3 years old could run
win an internationally recognised Listed flat race run over 2300 metres or further
win the Cesarewitch Handicap (UK, 8th October). No longer features any nominees



Upcoming Eligible races in Australia:

Oct 8 - HERBERT POWER STAKES (2400m G2 Qlty; 1st-3rd)
(Accepted: Prince of Penzance - 2nd in Order of Entry, Howard Be Thy Name - 23rd; Need to finish top 3: Assign, Dandy Gent, Master Zephyr, Pemberley)

Oct 15 - BMW CAULFIELD CUP (2400m G1 Hcp; 1st-5th)
Oct 15 - CITY TATT'S CLUB CUP (2500m Listed Hcp; 1st)
Oct 19 - GEELONG CUP (2400m G3 Hcp; 1st-3rd)
Oct 22 - MOONEE VALLEY GOLD CUP (2500m G2 Swp; 1st-3rd)
Oct 26 - BENDIGO CUP (2400m G3 Hcp; 1st-3rd)
Oct 29 - AAMI VICTORIA DERBY (2500m G1 Sw; 1st-3rd)
Oct 29 - LEXUS STAKES (2500m 2500m G3 Qlty; 1st-3rd)


Past Eligible races in Australia:

Oct 1 - THE METROPOLITAN (2400m G1 Hcp; 1st-3rd)
Sir John Hawkwood - 1st (was 43rd in the Order of Entry)
Antonio Giuseppe - 2nd (now passed ballot clause)
Allergic - 3rd (was not nominated)
Sacred Master - 4th (was 50th)
Who Shot Thebarman - 7th (was 16th)
Dee I Cee - 8th (needed to finish top 3 to satisfy ballot clause; no longer nominated)
Grand Marshall - 9th (was 26th)
Amexed - 12th (needed to finish top 3 to satisfy ballot clause)
Storm the Stars - 13th (was 28th in the Order of Entry; no longer nominated)


Oct 2 - THE BART CUMMINGS (2500m G3 Qlty; 1st-3rd)
Almandin - 1st (receives Automatic Entry; was 64th in Order of entry)
Zanteca - 2nd (was 47th)
Excess Knowledge - 3rd (was 39th)
Venguer Masque - 4th (needed to finish top 3 to pass ballot clause)
Dandy Gent - 5th (needed to finish top 3 to pass ballot clause)
Pentathlon - 7th (was 53rd)
Almoonqith - 8th (was 30th)
Aloft - 9th (was 59th)
Swacadelic - 10th (was 60th; no longer nominated)
Shimrano - 11th (needed to finish top 3 to pass ballot clause; no longer nominated)

[kiwiz]

Kiwi Sacred Master worth a look
Won Newcastle Cup & fourth in the Metropolitan
Ran third in the Auckland Cup where he fought on well

Another kiwi worth a look,,Rose of Virginia,,ran second in the Auckland Cup
She finished the race off nice & strong
Unplaced two starts in Oz over unsuitable journeys

[kiwiz]

And let’s not forget kiwi Who Shot Thebarman
Having another go
Ran 3rd two years ago,,11th last year but not suited by the slow pace & checked at the 150m,,should have finished closer
No spring chicken but worth a look

[walkermac]

Oct 8 - HERBERT POWER STAKES (2400m G2 Qlty; 1st-3rd)
(Accepted: Prince of Penzance - 2nd in Order of Entry, Howard Be Thy Name - 23rd; Need to finish top 3: Assign, Dandy Gent, Master Zephyr, Pemberley)Prince of Penzance out for the season and likely retired. Hence, all horses bar Almandin (with ballot exemption) go up a place in the Order of Entry.

Assign, one of the 3 needing a top 3 finish (after Master Zephyr was scratched) won and gained a 1kg penalty. This takes him to 27th in the Order of Entry and foremost of those on 54kg, likely needing some further dropouts to advance.

No penalty for Pemberley, despite only finishing 0.4L back in 3rd. On the positive side, this means he has passed the ballot clause and is in 35th place (though ahead only of Manndawi and Arab Dawn - and those yet to pass the first ballot clause).

Pemberley will rise one further position as Antonio Guiseppe has been announced as heading to the paddock on account of muscle damage. Back for Autumn 2017.

This weekend there are the following notable races:

Oct 15 - BMW CAULFIELD CUP
30 nominations (field limit of 18). Only 6 of the nominees aren't also in line for the Melbourne Cup.

Oct 15 - CITY TATT'S CLUB CUP
13 nominations presently, but they've been extended 'til tomorrow morning. Grand Marshall, Who Shot Thebarman and Sacred Master are the only Melbourne Cup potentials in the field (all of whom were also nominated in the Caulfield Cup). Only Sacred Master is in danger of missing the Melbourne Cup, presently at 28th in the Order. Winning just this race isn't enough to advance his ranking. A 0.5kg penalty would see him get to 26th (any higher would require an unlikely 1.5kg penalty). A top 4 finish - with no penalty - in the Caulfield Cup (in which he's at 23rd in the order) would nudge him ahead of Assign and into 27th. A (hopefully) comprehensive victory here would seem the better option; if only the Melbourne Cup was the long-term view (otherwise there's a 10 in 18 chance of winning $75k or more in the CC, vs a 1 in x chance in the Tatt's Club Cup)

[kiwiz]

And another kiwi,,Pentathlon
Three times over 2 mile,,1st,,2nd & 4th
The last time not suited by the slow pace

[Sands]

Prince Of Penzance recovering from surgery
Screws inserted in off fore leg, as a result of injury sustained in the Herbert Power Stakes recently

[Sands]

Caulfield Cup winner Jameka has firmed from $15 into $8, for this race

[walkermac]

Otherwise, I believe the only remaining ways to move to the Passed list are:
win or place 2nd or 3rd in an internationally recognised Group or Graded flat race run over 2300 metres or further
place 4th or 5th in an internationally recognised Group 1 or Grade 1 flat race run over 2300 metres or further in which horses older than 3 years old could run
win an internationally recognised Listed flat race run over 2300 metres or further
win the Cesarewitch Handicap (UK, 8th October).
It turns out that the site I got this information from had a truncated list. The other means to pass the first ballot clause are:
place 6th, 7th or 8th in the 2016 MRC Caulfield Cup
place 2nd or 3rd in the 2016 MVRC Cox Plate
win the 2016 VRC Turnbull Stakes
won or was placed 2nd or 3rd in the 2014 Emirates Melbourne Cup
won the 2014 Caulfield Cup

Finishing 6th-8th in the 2016 Caulfield Cup were: Our Ivanhowe (already passed ballot), Sir Isaac Newtown (not nominated) and Vengue Masque (now passes ballot clause)

Cox Plate is this coming Saturday. Acceptances are on Wednesday morning, but presently nominated and still hoping to pass the first ballot clause is: Tosen Stardom.

The winner of the 2016 Turnbull Stakes was Hartnell (already passed).

The first three placegetters in the 2014 Melbourne Cup were Protectionist (no longer nominated), Red Cadeaux (RIP) and Who Shot Thebarman (already passed).

The 2014 Caulfield Cup winner was Admire Rakti (RIP).

[Sands]

Caulfield Cup winner Jameka has firmed from $15 into $8, for this race
Jameka has been given a 1.5kg penalty in the Melbourne Cup, will now carry 53.5kgs

[Sands]

Order of entry update

Exempt from Ballot as at 17 Oct 2016:
1 Jameka
2 Almandin

Passed 2016 Emirates Melbourne Cup first ballot clause as at 17 Oct 2016:
3 Preferment
4 Big Orange
5 Our Ivanhowe
6 Curren Mirotic
7 Tarzino
8 The United States
9 Hartnell
10 Who Shot Thebarman
11 Wicklow Brave
12 Bondi Beach
13 Exosphere
14 Scottish
15 Tally
16 Grand Marshal
17 Gallante
18 Almoonqith
19 Real Love
20 Sir John Hawkwood
21 Heartbreak City
22 Howard Be Thy Name
23 Beautiful Romance
24 Excess Knowledge
25 Fanatic
26 Zanteca
27 Assign
28 Sacred Master
29 Secret Number
30 Grey Lion
31 Pentathlon
32 Antonio Giuseppe
33 Rose Of Virginia
34 Aloft
35 Vengeur Masque
36 Pemberley
37 Manndawi
38 Arab Dawn

Not Passed 2016 Emirates Melbourne Cup first ballot clause as at 17 Oct 2016:

Tosen Stardom
Set Square
Dandy Gent
De Little Engine
Foundry
Francis Of Assisi
Master Zephyr
Oceanographer
Qewy
Second Wave
The Bandit
Tom Melbourne
White Dollar Sign

[walkermac]

Zanteca, 26th in the Order of Entry has been retired due to a suspensory ligament injury.

Antonio Guiseppe was said to be heading to the paddock, but remains in the Order of Entry in 32nd (now 31st)


Oct 19 - GEELONG CUP (2400m G3 Hcp; 1st-3rd)

Features:

Grey Lion (now 29th in Order of Entry; can jump up to 27th with victory. Almoonquith got a 1kg penalty for winning this race last year. The same result will move Grey Lion to 26th)

Arab Dawn (now 37th; can jump up to 31st with victory. A subsequent 1kg penalty will move Arab Dawn to 27th)

Qewy (needs to finish top 3 to pass ballot clause; thereafter will be in 31st, 34th or 36th - depending on the results of other horses in the field, of course. 27th with victory and a 1kg penalty)

Oceanographer (as above)


To finish any higher they need either further weight penalties or dropouts above them. Tarzino looks a likely candidate to drop out (underwent scans today after leg swelling was detected and remainder of the Spring is in grave doubt). The United States is also rumoured to be giving the Cup a miss after a disrupted campaign.

[walkermac]

To finish any higher they need either further weight penalties or dropouts above them. Tarzino looks a likely candidate to drop out (underwent scans today after leg swelling was detected and remainder of the Spring is in grave doubt). The United States is also rumoured to be giving the Cup a miss after a disrupted campaign.And now Preferment is gone, meaning all weights will go up 1kg (topweight must be 57kg).

[walkermac]

Oct 19 - GEELONG CUP (2400m G3 Hcp; 1st-3rd)

Features:

Grey Lion (now 29th in Order of Entry; can jump up to 27th with victory. Almoonquith got a 1kg penalty for winning this race last year. The same result will move Grey Lion to 26th)

Arab Dawn (now 37th; can jump up to 31st with victory. A subsequent 1kg penalty will move Arab Dawn to 27th)

Qewy (needs to finish top 3 to pass ballot clause; thereafter will be in 31st, 34th or 36th - depending on the results of other horses in the field, of course. 27th with victory and a 1kg penalty)

Oceanographer (as above)


To finish any higher they need either further weight penalties or dropouts above them. Tarzino looks a likely candidate to drop out (underwent scans today after leg swelling was detected and remainder of the Spring is in grave doubt). The United States is also rumoured to be giving the Cup a miss after a disrupted campaign.Arab Dawn was scratched. Qewy won and gained a 0.5kg penalty. Grey Lion was only 0.2L back and Oceanographer 3rd @ 1L. That is, the three remaining Cup hopefuls in the field took out the trifecta, which paid up to $75.20.

There's all sorts of rumours about which runners are dropping out of the race. Monday is time for nominees to pay the second declaration fee, so it should be mostly all cleared up by then.

In the meantime we have on Oct 22nd:
COX PLATE: the winner gets a ballot exemption and 2nd or 3rd pass the first ballot clause.

Features: Hartnell (9th in Order of Entry),



MOONEE VALLEY GOLD CUP: 1st-3rd pass the first ballot clause.

Features: Gallante (17th), Grand Marshall (16th), Who Shot Thebarman (10th), Excess Knowledge (24th), Master Zephyr (not passed first ballot clause), The Bandit (not passed first ballot clause), Pentathlon (32nd), Second Wave (not passed first ballot clause), White Dollar Sign (not passed first ballot clause)


All runners can increase their prizemoney (which adjusts their position amongst horses with the same weight).

[Sands]

Yep, half-a-kilo penalty for import Qewy for winning the Geelong Cup
Yep, moves him up to 31st in the order of entry
And would you believe most of his recent form has been over the fences

[walkermac]

And would you believe most of his recent form has been over the fencesSimenon was 4th in 2013 and much of his preceding season was over hurdles. Max Dynamite, 2nd last year, was predominately in jumps races leading into the Cup. 2016's Wicklow Brave did a few last year also. Seems to be becoming a bit of a trend...

[kiwiz]

Another kiwi worth a look,,Rose of Virginia,,ran second in the Auckland Cup
She finished the race off nice & strong
Unplaced two starts in Oz over unsuitable journeys

And let’s not forget kiwi Who Shot Thebarman
Having another go
Ran 3rd two years ago,,11th last year but not suited by the slow pace & checked at the 150m,,should have finished closer
No spring chicken but worth a look

And another kiwi,,Pentathlon
Three times over 2 mile,,1st,,2nd & 4th
The last time not suited by the slow pace

And we also have Fanatic,,rank outsider quoted 125/1
She won the NZ Oaks in March on protest,,running on well
Bit of a setback since coming to Oz
Scratched from the Caulfield Cup due to an infection in her leg caused by a spider bite
Not seen since so Cup start possibly in doubt

[walkermac]

COX PLATE: the winner gets a ballot exemption and 2nd or 3rd pass the first ballot clause.

Features: Hartnell (9th in Order of Entry), Came 2nd by 8 lengths. But it's unfair to compare the performance with that of Winx.... Though he was 10.4L behind Winx in this race last year, so perhaps he's gotten better! I expect the form in this race will be hard to match up and handicappers may instead look back to Hartnell's run in the Turnbull Stakes (where Hartnell beat Jameka by 3 lengths)



MOONEE VALLEY GOLD CUP: 1st-3rd pass the first ballot clause.

Features: Gallante (17th), Grand Marshall (16th), Who Shot Thebarman (10th), Excess Knowledge (24th), Master Zephyr (not passed first ballot clause), The Bandit (not passed first ballot clause), Pentathlon (32nd), Second Wave (not passed first ballot clause), White Dollar Sign (not passed first ballot clause)Grand Marshall 1st, narrowly ahead of Who Shot Thebarman in 2nd. Then a bit of a gap to Pentathlon. The horses that needed to place (Master Zephyr, The Bandit, Second Wave and White Dollar Sign), didn't (8th, 6th, 9th and 5th respectively). Excess Knowledge was 4th. Gallante was 7th.

The second declaration fee is due on Monday and I daresay there will be a fair few that will be dropping out. Acceptances for the Group 3 2400m Bendigo Cup will also be released.

[rhino82]

Hartnell, won Queen's Vase 3219m, 4th Sydney Cup 3200m, 15th 2015 Melbourne Cup, jock said pace was just too slow, couldn’t make up ground
Jameka, Caulfied Cup winner, also won Oaks 2500m, on pace should keep out of trouble :)
Bondi Beach, 2nd St Leger 2917m, 1st Vintage Crop 2816m, lightly raced & good strike rate :)
Almandin, winner Harry White Classic 2400m & The Bart Cummings 2500m, another lightly raced & good strike rate

[rhino82]

Bondi Beach, 2nd St Leger 2917m, 1st Vintage Crop 2816m, lightly raced & good strike rate

Bondi Beach also 16th 2015 Melbourne Cup, similar comments from jock to Hartnell

[jake]

..west aussie real love..to run in the lexus stakes next sat
..how she performs in that race will determine if a start in the cup

[kiwiz]

And we also have Fanatic,,rank outsider quoted 125/1
She won the NZ Oaks in March on protest,,running on well
Bit of a setback since coming to Oz
Scratched from the Caulfield Cup due to an infection in her leg caused by a spider bite
Not seen since so Cup start possibly in doubt
Fanatic has returned to NZ

[walkermac]

Only 32 remain in contention (42 at this stage last year). Still needing to pass the first ballot clause are:
De Little Engine
The Bandit
Tom Melbourne

They've all nominated for the Lexus Stakes, in which they must finish in the top 3 placegetters (and likely hope for a weight penalty as - without further dropouts - the best they can otherwise manage is 27th in the Order of Entry).

All weights move up 1kg so that the topweights (Big Orange and Our Ivanhowe) are on 57kg.

1 5324x47121 JAMEKA M 4 Ciaron Maher 1 53.5kg 2.0kg
2 x221x66511 ALMANDIN (GER) G 7 Robert Hickmott 2 51kg 1.0kg
3 7x5x23x11x BIG ORANGE (GB) G 6 Michael Bell 3 56kg
4 0x5501x586 OUR IVANHOWE (GER) H 7 Lee & Anthony Freedman 4 56kg
5 x300x620x9 CURREN MIROTIC (JPN) G 9 Osamu Hirata 5 55.5kg
6 50x5x21112 HARTNELL (GB) G 6 John O'Shea 6 55kg
7 0324x65272 WHO SHOT THEBARMAN (NZ) G 8 Chris Waller 7 55kg
8 3333x26431 WICKLOW BRAVE (GB) G 8 William Mullins 8 55kg
9 1220x11x33 BONDI BEACH (IRE) H 5 Aidan O'Brien 9 55kg
10 1413x18353 EXOSPHERIC (GB) H 5 Lee & Anthony Freedman 10 55kg
11 2251x31212 SCOTTISH (IRE) G 5 Charlie Appleby 11 54.5kg
12 11113x0230 TALLY H 4 John O'Shea 12 52.5kg
13 8533x72691 GRAND MARSHAL (GB) G 7 Chris Waller 13 53.5kg
14 069x031x27 GALLANTE (IRE) G 6 Robert Hickmott 14 53.5kg
15 x9065x8084 ALMOONQITH (USA) H 7 David & B Hayes & T Dabernig 15 53.5kg
16 32114x2715 REAL LOVE M 6 Darren Weir 16 52kg 0.5kg
17 2x1322x210 SIR JOHN HAWKWOOD (IRE) G 8 John P Thompson 17 53kg 1.5kg
18 00x101x11x HEARTBREAK CITY (FR) G 7 Tony Martin 18 53kg
19 111134x075 HOWARD BE THY NAME H 4 Darren Weir 19 51.5kg
20 x6153x1553 BEAUTIFUL ROMANCE (GB) M 5 Saeed Bin Suroor 20 51.5kg
21 17x20x9834 EXCESS KNOWLEDGE (GB) H 7 Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott 21 52.5kg
22 8x1153x921 ASSIGN (IRE) G 6 Robert Hickmott 22 51kg 1.0kg
23 361x2x12x1 SECRET NUMBER (GB) G 7 Saeed Bin Suroor 23 51kg
24 32x1837x82 GREY LION (IRE) H 5 Matt Cumani 24 51kg
25 22x00x22x1 QEWY (IRE) G 7 Charlie Appleby 25 50.5kg 0.5kg
26 13254x0673 PENTATHLON (NZ) G 5 John Wheeler 26 50.5kg
27 462102x094 ROSE OF VIRGINIA (NZ) M 7 Lee & Shannon Hope 27 50kg
28 x1145x5248 VENGEUR MASQUE (IRE) G 5 Michael Moroney 28 50kg
29 x11x4017x3 OCEANOGRAPHER (GB) G 5 Charlie Appleby 29 50kg
30 x7733x8679 DE LITTLE ENGINE G 6 Danny O'Brien 30= 50kg
31 81642x4756 THE BANDIT (JPN) H 5 John Sadler 30= 50kg
32 1x110x2662 TOM MELBOURNE (IRE) G 6 Lee & Anthony Freedman 30= 50kg

[walkermac]

Bendigo Cup acceptances have also been released. Only Howard Be Thy Name remains in the field and as a Melbourne Cup potential (currently in 19th position in the order of entry). The Offer won this race last year and did not receive a weight penalty. Tanby got a 1kg penalty for the same feat in 2011, but given that Howard Be Thy Name is already on 51.5kg and with respect to the relevant merits of his competitors, probably can safely win without earning a penalty - unless it's an outstanding victory.

Francis of Assisi also accepted, but didn't pay the second Melbourne Cup nomination fee. Not sure what this says about his chances in this race...

[jimbob]

Yep, half-a-kilo penalty for import Qewy for winning the Geelong Cup
Yep, moves him up to 31st in the order of entry
And would you believe most of his recent form has been over the fencesqewy looked quite good
https://imageshackau.com/sports/123/b/happy.gifhttps://imageshackau.com/sports/142/b/happy.gif
https://imageshackau.com/sports/164/b/happy.gifhttps://imageshackau.com/sports/131/b/happy.gif

[rhino82]

Scottish, all wins 1799 - 2018m range, did run 2nd in the Caulfield Cup & has gone from unlikely starter to likely
Exospheric, all wins 2012 - 2414m range, good 3rd in the Caulfield Cup
Heartbreak City, Win range 2000 - 3319m, looks well handicapped :)

[walkermac]

"Aspro's Melbourne Cup System".

I don't know who Aspro is, but if you google the name you'll find the source. It was made freely available so I don't believe I'm stepping on anyone's toes... Had 4 choices last year, including the eventual 100-1 winner, Prince of Penzance. According to their figures, it's got 38 of the last 53 winners.

Rule 1 List any Cup acceptor placed in either the Caulfield Cup and MacKinnon Stakes
Caulfield Cup: Jameka, Scottish, Exospheric. MacKinnon Stakes: now called the Emirates Stakes and held after the Cup....don't know how that's supposed to work anymore.

Rule 2 List any Cup acceptor placed 2nd, 3rd or 4th in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup
Who Shot Thebarman, Pentathlon, Excess Knowledge

Rule 3 List any acceptor who was placed 1-2-3 in the Melbourne Cup at their last cup run
N/A

Rule 4 List the Lexus Stakes winner
TBD - Nominations extended 'til tomorrow morning but presently include De Little Engine, Pentathlon, Real Love, Rose of Virginia, Tally, The Bandit or Tom Melbourne.

Rule 5 Delete any horse whose last run in the Melbourne Cup was an unplaced run.
Delete - Excess Knowledge (7th 2015), Who Shot Thebarman (11th 2015),

Rule 6 Delete any horse who is aged 3yo or 7yo or older.
Leaves: Jameka, Scottish, Exospheric, Pentathlon (if he makes the final field) and - if they happen to win the Lexus and back up in The Cup - one of De Little Engine, Real Love, Tally, The Bandit or Tom Melbourne

[JB1]

These horses ran in last years cup

Big Orange 5th
800m 1st, 400m 3rd, margin 2.4L
Rider pleaded guilty to a charge of careless riding

Excess Knowledge 7th
800m 2nd, 400m 1st, margin 3.1L
Nil report

Our Ivanhowe 10th
800m 10th, 400m 9th, margin 3.9L
Tightened at the 250m when tightened for room by Big Orange which shifted in away from Excess Knowledge

Who Shot Thebarman 11th
800m 7th, 400m 5th, margin 4L
Checked severely at the 200m when tightened for room between Trip To Paris which shifted in and Criterion which was taken out by Excess Knowledge

Hartnell 15th
800m 22nd, 400m 23rd, margin 5.9L
Inconvenienced rounding the home turn

Bondi Beach 16th
800m 12th, 400m 12th, margin 6.2L
Hampered near the 350m when Sky Hunter shifted out after being inconvenienced. Rider Brett Prebble will be severely reprimanded for using his whip six times forehand prior to the 100m which is two times more than permitted

Almoonqith 18th
800m 21st, 400m 22nd, margin 6.9L
Bounded at the start

Grand Marshal 21st
800m 14th, 400m 15th, margin 14.75L
Checked severely and almost fell near the 350m

[Sands]

No Cup penalty for Moonee Valley Cup winner, Grand Marshal


Tuesday 1 November, 2016 – 2nd Acceptances

No Horse Trainer Order of Entry Weight
1 Big Orange (GB) Michael Bell 3 56
2 Our Ivanhowe (Ger) Lee & Anthony Freedman 4 56
3 Curren Mirotic (Jpn) Osamu Hirata 5 55.5
4 Hartnell (GB) John O'Shea 6 55
5 Who Shot Thebarman (NZ) Chris Waller 7 55
6 Wicklow Brave (GB) William Mullins 8 55
7 Bondi Beach (Ire) Aidan O'Brien 9 55
8 Exospheric (GB) Lee & Anthony Freedman 10 55
9 Scottish (Ire) Charlie Appleby 11 54.5
10 Jameka Ciaron Maher 1 53.5
11 Grand Marshal (GB) Chris Waller 13 53.5
12 Gallante (Ire) Robert Hickmott 14 53.5
13 Almoonqith (USA) David & B Hayes & T Dabernig 15 53.5
14 Sir John Hawkwood (Ire) John P Thompson 17 53
15 Heartbreak City (Fr) Tony Martin 18 53
16 Tally John O'Shea 12 52.5
17 Excess Knowledge (GB) Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott 21 52.5
18 Real Love Darren Weir 16 52
19 Howard Be Thy Name Darren Weir 19 51.5
20 Beautiful Romance (GB) Saeed Bin Suroor 20 51.5
21 Almandin (Ger) Robert Hickmott 2 51
22 Assign (Ire) Robert Hickmott 22 51
23 Secret Number (GB) Saeed Bin Suroor 23 51
24 Grey Lion (Ire) Matt Cumani 24 51
25 Qewy (Ire) Charlie Appleby 25 50.5
26 Pentathlon (NZ) John Wheeler 26 50.5
27 Rose Of Virginia (NZ) Lee & Shannon Hope 27 50
28 Vengeur Masque (Ire) Michael Moroney 28 50
29 Oceanographer (GB) Charlie Appleby 29 50
30 De Little Engine Danny O'Brien =30 50
31 The Bandit (Jpn) John Sadler =30 50
32 Tom Melbourne (Ire) Lee & Anthony Freedman =30 50

[walkermac]

Rule 4 List the Lexus Stakes winner
TBD - Nominations extended 'til tomorrow morning but presently include De Little Engine, Pentathlon, Real Love, Rose of Virginia, Tally, The Bandit or Tom Melbourne.Oceanographer (29th in the Order of Entry) was a late entrant.

[Sands]

Trainer Charlie Appleby has confirmed that Scottish will not run in this race
Stablemate Qewy moves into 24th place in the order of entry

[walkermac]

Bendigo Cup acceptances have also been released. Only Howard Be Thy Name remains in the field and as a Melbourne Cup potential (currently in 19th position in the order of entry). The Offer won this race last year and did not receive a weight penalty. Tanby got a 1kg penalty for the same feat in 2011, but given that Howard Be Thy Name is already on 51.5kg and with respect to the relevant merits of his competitors, probably can safely win without earning a penalty - unless it's an outstanding victory.

Francis of Assisi also accepted, but didn't pay the second Melbourne Cup nomination fee. Not sure what this says about his chances in this race...His chances were quite good, as it turned out. Dominant winner. Howard Be Thy Name finished a disappointing fifth and - per his trainer in an interview after the race - will not be going on to the Melbourne Cup. So seemingly Pentathlon sneaks into the 24th position - or at least holds it until the Lexus Stakes is run. Might not get a full field if this keeps up. Only 3 more have qualified thus far...

[kiwiz]

So seemingly Pentathlon sneaks into the 24th position
Good one!
Glad I got on early
Halved his quote after his placing in the MV cup
Nice odds too,,for the place,,that race :)

[rhino82]

Wicklow Brave, last start winner Irish St Leger 2816m. Change in tactics that win, on pace beating the odds-on favourite Order of St George. Handles all track conditions but loves the wet. :)
Almoonqith, last years Geelong / Sandown Cups winner. Fast finishing 4th Caulfield Cup. At best dry track.
Oceanographer, win range 2012 - 2213m, running in the Lexus Stakes Sat. A good performance in that would enhance his chance for this.

[Sands]

There are doubts (again) that Tally will line-up in Tuesday’s Cup
The horse is set to run in Saturday’s Lexus Stakes & is likely to bypass the Cup & perhaps run in the Zipping Classic 12th Nov

[kiwiz]

Final acceptors for this race have been passed fit to run however Jameka will be inspected again this morning

Acceptors that contest the Lexus Stakes will be inspected again late today

[kiwiz]

Recapping. Three kiwis in the final field
Who Shot Thebarman ($35),, Pentathlon ($126) & Rose of Virginia ($301)

[walkermac]

Oceanographer penalised 1kg for winning the Lexus Stakes.

Final field:

1 7x5x23x11x BIG ORANGE (GB) Michael Bell Jamie Spencer 7 57kg 117
2 0x5501x586 OUR IVANHOWE (GER) Lee & Anthony Freedman Dwayne Dunn 6 57kg 116
3 x300x620x9 CURREN MIROTIC (JPN) Osamu Hirata Tommy Berry 18 56.5kg 116
4 1220x11x33 BONDI BEACH (IRE) Aidan O'Brien Ryan Moore 5 56kg 116
5 1413x18353 EXOSPHERIC (GB) Lee & Anthony Freedman Damien Oliver 13 56kg 117
6 50x5x21112 HARTNELL (GB) John O'Shea James McDonald 12 56kg 123
7 0324x65272 WHO SHOT THEBARMAN (NZ) Chris Waller Hugh Bowman 20 56kg 115
8 3333x26431 WICKLOW BRAVE (GB) William Mullins Frankie Dettori 24 56kg 117
9 x9065x8084 ALMOONQITH (USA) David & B Hayes & T Dabernig Michael Walker 19 54.5kg 112
10 069x031x27 GALLANTE (IRE) Robert Hickmott Blake Shinn 2 54.5kg 114
11 8533x72691 GRAND MARSHAL (GB) Chris Waller Ben Melham 9 54.5kg 115
12 5324x47121 JAMEKA Ciaron Maher Nicholas Hall 3 54.5kg 2.0kg 119
13 00x101x11x HEARTBREAK CITY (FR) Tony Martin Joao Moreira 23 54kg 113
14 2x1322x210 SIR JOHN HAWKWOOD (IRE) John P Thompson Blake Spriggs 14 54kg 1.5kg 114
15 17x20x9834 EXCESS KNOWLEDGE (GB) Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott Vlad Duric 21 53.5kg 111
16 x6153x1553 BEAUTIFUL ROMANCE (GB) Saeed Bin Suroor Damian Lane 1 52.5kg 110
17 x221x66511 ALMANDIN (GER) Robert Hickmott Kerrin McEvoy 17 52kg 1.0kg 108
18 8x1153x921 ASSIGN (IRE) Robert Hickmott Ms Katelyn Mallyon 22 52kg 1.0kg 104
19 32x1837x82 GREY LION (IRE) Matt Cumani Glen Boss 16 52kg 107
20 11x4017x31 OCEANOGRAPHER (GB) Charlie Appleby Chad Schofield 11 52kg 1.0kg 107
21 361x2x12x1 SECRET NUMBER (GB) Saeed Bin Suroor Stephen Baster 10 52kg 112
22 3254x06737 PENTATHLON (NZ) John Wheeler Mark Du Plessis 4 51.5kg 102
23 22x0Fx22x1 QEWY (IRE) Charlie Appleby Craig Williams 15 51.5kg 0.5kg 107
24 62102x0940 ROSE OF VIRGINIA (NZ) Lee & Shannon Hope Ben E Thompson (a) 8 51kg 100

[walkermac]

"Aspro's Melbourne Cup System".

Updated. (Reminder: selected 38 of the last 53 winners)


Rule 1 List any Cup acceptor placed in either the Caulfield Cup and MacKinnon Stakes
Caulfield Cup: Jameka, Exospheric. MacKinnon Stakes: now called the Emirates Stakes and held after the Cup....don't know how that's supposed to work anymore.

Rule 2 List any Cup acceptor placed 2nd, 3rd or 4th in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup
Who Shot Thebarman, Pentathlon, Excess Knowledge

Rule 3 List any acceptor who was placed 1-2-3 in the Melbourne Cup at their last cup run
N/A

Rule 4 List the Lexus Stakes winner
Oceanographer

Rule 5 Delete any horse whose last run in the Melbourne Cup was an unplaced run.
Delete - Excess Knowledge (7th 2015), Who Shot Thebarman (11th 2015),

Rule 6 Delete any horse who is aged 3yo or 7yo or older.
Delete - Oceanographer

Leaves: Jameka ($8), Exospheric ($20), Pentathlon ($126)

Jameka - #12 saddlecloth has the equal most wins (11). Only two Australian-bred horses have won since 2000.

Exospheric - Trainer Lee Freedman is the participant with the most wins (5) and jockey Damien Oliver has the equal most wins (3). 5yo Entires and Geldings are the age/sex combo with the most wins (43).

Pentathlon - 5yo Entires and Geldings are the age/sex combo with the most wins (43)

[walkermac]

Pedigree
There was a bit of pre-race chatter here last year regarding Melbourne Cup runners' pedigrees. So I thought I would play around with it again.

DISCLAIMER - I don't have any subscriptions or special databases, I worked the figures out myself. Consequently there are undoubtedly errors in my working - plus the source I used for conduit mares had a couple of the ones I needed missing. In any case, pedigree study is often so vague that a mistake or two won't make much difference.

https://s17.postimg.org/lyaan6ten/Horse_Pedigree.png

Dosage Profile - Roman used a 'dosage profile' to describe the amount of certain traits inherited from preponderant sires called 'chefs de race'. The traits are - from left to right - Brilliant, Intermediate, Classic, Solid/Stout, Professional (and also from left to right: aptitude in sprints through to routes). The method is flawed and non-specific, but it does have some bearing on reality: that is, the population of horses that have lots of Brilliant points do better in Sprints than those who don't; but is this *particular* horse with lots of Brilliant points going to do well in Sprints? Can't definitively say. The more points, the more well-bred the horse. For the Cup we'd also like to see lots of points in the Professional category. ....unfortunately the only chefs de race passing on their Professional aptitude are from so long ago they barely feature in modern-day pedigrees. There very well may be sires passing on such genes but it's something that can only be determined retrospectively. (NB - I'm using the list that includes Australian and New Zealand chefs)

DI - Stands for Dosage Index: the ratio of speed to stamina figures in the Dosage Profile. For the Cup, the lower the better. There's a vague relation between DI and ideal running distance (but again, it's the 'on average' ideal for the population of horses with that DI, rather than necessarily being the ideal for a particular horse with that DI). A DI of 0.5 would be about right for 3200m. ....you'll note that none of the above have a DI that low. That's partly due to horses largely being bred for shorter races (there's more of them) and the lack of chefs de race that can add stamina points to the Dosage Profile.

CD - Centre of Distribution: ratio of speed to stamina figures in the profile, though giving more strength to the extremes than the DI. There's the same kind of relation between it and preferred running distance - and it's used in this regard more often than the relationship with DI is. The lower the figure, the longer the race suits. A CD of 0.16 would be about right for 3200m (though it's subject to the same issues as above).

Triads - Dosage has a number of issues, foremost amongst these is that there is no regard to the genetic contribution of females in the pedigree, nor to stallions who aren't deigned to be chefs de race. There have been studies that show some physical attributes are passed through mitochondrial DNA (i.e. along female lines) so a lot of such information would be missed through dosages. It's complicated to describe, but for the Cup you'd ideally be looking for a smaller number first and a larger number last - i.e. the total number of inherited traits are skewed towards stamina-based ones.

Speed/Stamina - Derived from the same data as previous, just thrown in sharper relief. Again, the bigger the gap the better, and the largest figure should be the latter. (This is presuming a truly run race, of course; in a sit and sprint it may be advantageous to have it reversed, as speed would then be the determinant factor of success in the race).

Conduit Index - ratio of speed to stamina figures, as derived from Conduit Mares. Unfortunately I've never found a source which equates a Conduit Index with an average ideal distance (like DI and CD do). The lower, the longer; however. 0.5-0.9 looks good - unless it's run super fast or super slow.


So who's going to win? No idea.

The highest CD of the last 20 Melbourne Cup winners: 0.7 (Jameka and Rose of Virginia have larger ones)

The highest DI of the last 20 Melbourne Cup winners: 5.4 [2.52 was the next highest] (Rose of Virginia has a larger one)

Lowest Stamina number of the past 20 winners (except for Rogan Josh, which I couldn't figure out): 12 (Wicklow Brave, Almoonqith, Excess Knowledge, Pentathlon, Qewy and Rose of Virginia are lower)


Pedigreely speaking, if the pace is true - as several trainers have indicated it will be - I like Big Orange and Secret Number as winning chances; Curren Mirotic and Who Shot Thebarman to place (who would actually be best suited of all, but their ages and barrier are concerning...)

A moderate pace: Big Orange, Exospherical, Grand Marshal, Heartbreak City, Almandin, Secret Number.

....but you can argue for just about anything*. That's the beauty of pedigrees!




* - anything except Rose of Virginia

[kiwiz]

A wet track should enhance the chances of:

Our Ivanhowe Soft: 4: 2-1-0
Bondi Beach Soft: 2: 1-1-0 Heavy: 1: 1-0-0
Hartnell Soft: 8: 4-1-0 Heavy: 3: 1-1-1
Wicklow Brave Soft: 12: 3-0-3 Heavy: 4: 4-0-0
Gallante Soft: 6: 2-1-1 Heavy: 2: 2-0-0
Grand Marshal Soft: 6: 3-0-1 Heavy: 5: 0-3-1
Jameka Soft: 3: 1-1-0 Heavy: 1: 1-0-0
Sir John Hawkwood Soft: 5: 2-1-0 Heavy: 4: 0-2-0
Almandin Soft: 5: 1-2-1
Grey Lion Soft: 4: 2-0-0 Heavy: 3: 0-1-1
Secret Number Soft: 6: 3-1-0
Qewy Soft: 11: 2-2-2 Heavy: 3: 1-1-1

[rhino82]

Big Orange, 5th in last years cup, form back home since top notch :)
Qewy, Geelong Cup winner who has also done well over the jumps. Should relish the light weight :)
Gallante, Sydney Cup winner, races on the pace so should avoid any trouble. Bit of rain would help
Secret Number, lightly raced recent times due to injury. Previous visit finished 2nd Queen Elizabeth Stakes (2,500m) racing on the pace. Some doubt over more distance

[Sandgroper]

Interesting stats courtesy racenet:

The trainer: Lee Freedman (5 wins) (Note: He now trains in partnership with his brother Anthony) - Our Ivanhowe (No. 2) and Exospheric (No. 5)

The jockey: Damien Oliver (3 wins) – Exospheric (No. 5) and Glen Boss (3 wins) – Grey Lion (No. 19)

The owner: Lloyd Williams (4 wins) – Bondi Beach (No. 4), Gallante (No. 10), Almandin (No. 17) and Assign (No. 18)

The saddlecloth: 4 and 12 (11 wins) – Bondi Beach (No. 4), Jameka (No. 12)

The barrier: 11 (8 wins) – Oceanographer (No. 20)

The age and sex: 5YO E&G (41 wins) – Bondi Beach (No. 4), Exospheric (No. 5), Grey Lion (No. 19), Oceanographer (No. 20), Pentathlon (No. 22)

Three lead-up form races to the Melbourne Cup have produced 11 winners since 2000. These are the horses that come out of those races:

Caulfield Cup (4 winners) – Our Ivanhowe (No. 2), Exospheric (No. 5), Almoonqith (No. 9), Jameka (No. 12), Sir John Hawkwood (No. 14)
Cox Plate (4 winners) – Hartnell (No. 6)
Geelong Cup (3 winners) – Grey Lion (No. 19), Oceanographer (No. 20), Qewy (No. 23)

Unluckiest saddlecloth: 18 (1 win) – Assign (No. 18)

Unluckiest barrier: 18 (no winners) – Curren Mirotic (No. 3)

[Sandgroper]

..west aussie real love..to run in the lexus stakes next sat
..how she performs in that race will determine if a start in the cup
Owner Bob Peters & trainer Darren Weir both disappointed with the run of Real Love.
She may start in Saturdays Matriarch Stakes, stepping down in distance.

[walkermac]

For what it's worth, here's my tips:


2016 Melbourne Cup
================

1. Big Orange - $12
Better horse this year than last. This edition should see more pace, which will be an advantage. Will be in the leading bunch and the draw indicates it should find that position with relative ease. In winning form and of dominanting size, though will have to break the 'no lead-up race in Australia prior to the Cup' hoodoo.

2. Heartbreak City - $18
Barrier draw is a worry, though the jockey booking is fantastic and had a spectacular last race in the UK. No worries at the distance. If it can find a good spot midfield in running and gets the breaks coming into the straight, should do very well.

3. Almandin - $11
Rise in class and distance. Has been dodging races since The Bart Cummings to maintain its light weight. Pedigree says it should get the 3200m; two of the last three winners came from its sire (also beat Protectionist in Germany in 2014, prior to it coming and out winning the Cup).

4. Secret Number - $26
Only run in Australia, but has a great first up record and from a stable that has huge experience in preparing foreign raiders. Query over the distance, but pedigree indicates it should do well.

5. Hartnell - $6
In stupendous form this season though has failed badly in two attempts at 3200m in Australia. Beat Jameka over 2000m comprehensively two runs ago and now meets her better at the weights.

6. Jameka - $8.50
Makybe Diva is the only mare to have carried more and won, though Jameka's earned it following Caulfield Cup win. Great draw, likely to find the sit it needs. Running in spite of its pedigree which indicates it's looking for a sit-and-sprint. Never run this far or this far into its prep.

7. Exospheric - $21
Great run in the Caulfield Cup. Very early in his career and first attempt at the distance, but pedigree says it should do well.

8. Gallante - $51
Would've preferred more give in the track. Has run the distance, winning the Sydney Cup in April. Good draw and on-pace. Touched up by Jameka in the Naturalism Stakes, but put a gap on the rest of the field and meets her now 3kg better at the weights. Last run was poor, but a forgive.

9. Bondi Beach - $9.50
Last year was a Melbourne Cup reconnaisance mission (finishing 6L back after getting caught in a demolition derby), more of a chance this time around.

10. Qewy - $26
Beat Oceanographer in the Geelong Cup, is better here at the weights, doesn't rely on sprinting around or running through the field to the finish, hardy type having run in hurdles and chases (which is a background that has performed well in the cup of late). Yet it's at $26 and Oceanographer is at $9...

[rhino82]

Grand Marshall, well beaten last years cup, 3rd Sydney & Sandown cups since. Most recent won MV Cup (2500m)
Curren Mirotic, 2nd Tenno Sho Spring 3200m, looking to become the oldest winner of the Cup.
Who Shot Thebarman, beaten 4lens last years cup, since 4th Sydney Cup, 2nd MV Cup
Gallante, won the Sydney Cup, races on the pace so should avoid any trouble :)

[rhino82]

Grey Lion, 2nd Geelong Cup, only start over similar distance (3000m) ran last
Our Ivanhowe, beaten 3.9lens last years cup, since won Doomben Cup & 6th Caulfield Cup
Beautiful Romance, lightly raced Godolphin stable but gone no further than 2414m
Assign, good form over 2400m or less, races on the pace so should avoid any trouble

[rhino82]

Excess Knowledge, beaten 3.1lens last years cup, form moderate since
Sir John Hawkwood, good form over 2400m or less
Rose of Virginia, 2nd Auckland Cup (3200m), recent form below par
Pentathlon, mixed form recently but has 3 starts over the distance, finishing 1st, 2nd & 4th :)

[Shaun]

So far not a lot of value on Betfair for most of the runners.

[walkermac]

The highest CD of the last 20 Melbourne Cup winners: 0.7 (Jameka and Rose of Virginia have larger ones)

The highest DI of the last 20 Melbourne Cup winners: 5.4 [2.52 was the next highest] (Rose of Virginia has a larger one)

Lowest Stamina number of the past 20 winners (except for Rogan Josh, which I couldn't figure out): 12 (Wicklow Brave, Almoonqith, Excess Knowledge, Pentathlon, Qewy and Rose of Virginia are lower)

Pedigreely speaking, if the pace is true - as several trainers have indicated it will be - I like Big Orange and Secret Number as winning chances; Curren Mirotic and Who Shot Thebarman to place (who would actually be best suited of all, but their ages and barrier are concerning...)

A moderate pace: Big Orange, Exospherical, Grand Marshal, Heartbreak City, Almandin, Secret Number.

Pedigree wins?

To my eye it didn't look like the super pace that was expected and the placings seemed to bear that out.

Almandin 1st (Monsun now sire of 3 of the past 4 winners).

Heartbreak City 2nd. The 'must have a lead-up run in Australia' hoodoo continues....

Secret Number led into the straight (probably shooting itself in the foot in taking up running as the pace threatened to slacken off; not sure where he finished).

Who Shot Thebarman a fast finishing 5th (as you might expect). Exospheric was in 8th. Big Orange (10th) didn't look comfortable at all to me: saw him stop and prop a few times and throw his head about. No idea where Grand Marshal and Curren Mirotic got to.

Rose of Virginia looked the worst prior to the race and finished that way. The figures similarly hinted that Jameka wasn't a shot at victory. Qewy (4th) was the only one to do alright amongst those listed as being notably different from past winners.

[grizzle]

The owner: Lloyd Williams (4 wins) – Bondi Beach (No. 4), Gallante (No. 10), Almandin (No. 17) and Assign (No. 18)

"Almandin is a horse Williams bought in Germany after he had beaten Protectionist in a Group Two race.

Protectionist came to Melbourne to win the Cup in 2014, while Almandin was beginning a long rehabilitation from a tendon injury."

formline worked out ok

[grizzle]

replay

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6LrAGPO_QCk