Back those first up winners

[Neil]

This betting system operates on Saturdays and major public holiday meetings at Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane.

Here are the rules.

1. The horse is first up from a spell of at least 2 months.

2. It has a winning strike rate of at least 25% and a first up winning strike rate of at least 50%.

3. That makes it a bet - for this system ignore 2YO and jumps races.

Winner 22/10/2016

Randwick:
Muraqaba $13.30 best tote

[Sands]

Qualifiers tonight

Canterbury
R5 Redouble

Moonee Valley
R3 Anatola
R4 Mr Dashing
R5 Manihi Mischief

[Neil]

Surprised there are so few comments/selections posted about this excellent logical betting system - also the 1s betting system.

[UselessBettor]

Surprised there are so few comments/selections posted about this excellent logical betting system - also the 1s betting system.


Perhaps because a) it has very few selections and b) there is no statistical evidence to prove it works long term.

[Sands]

Randwick, 21 Jan, R2 Guard of Honour

[Sands]

Our Beebee, winner, Eagle Farm Saturday

[Sands]

Rosehill, 11 Mar, R1 Spectroscope

[Sands]

Flemington, R3 Ken's Dream

[darkydog2002]

Not a bad effort today.

Dont know about Night Races as I am unsure how a horse performs under lights.

Cheers

[kiwiz]

Flemington R3 Merriest

[kiwiz]

Flemington R3 Leotie

[kiwiz]

Flemington R7 Staviva

[kiwiz]

Flemington R8 Jacquinot Bay

[kiwiz]

Rosehill R3 My Country

[kiwiz]

Rosehill R8 Russian Revolution

[kiwiz]

Missed this one

Flemington R1 Lake Como

[Lord Greystoke]

Rosehill R8 Russian Revolution

Bravo Kiwi. I had it in another system but didn't realise you had posted it here.

Cheers LG

[kiwiz]

Meteoroid looks like a qualifier
R4 Ascot Saturday

[grizzle]

(moonee valley) lord da vinci won for me

[darkydog2002]

Whats the Win Strike Rate since first posted?

Cheers.

[JB1]

This betting system operates on Saturdays and major public holiday meetings at Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane.

Here are the rules.

1. The horse is first up from a spell of at least 2 months.

2. It has a winning strike rate of at least 25% and a first up winning strike rate of at least 50%.

3. That makes it a bet - for this system ignore 2YO and jumps races.

One of my systems is very similar (has a couple of extra filters) but I'm including midweek metro. Also including 2yo races, but only during the period Jan 1 thru Jul 31. Same for 2yo races for some other systems I use.
Working for me

[kumite]

think the first up winning strike rate benchmark is set too high
would set an initial filter to a lower mark, like 33%
then have a bit of a look at the qualifiers
they could have a strong first up record without necessarily winning at least 50%

[watsonnek]

Wouldn't restrict to just Sat / PHols
Struck a few longshots myself on other days

[Sands]

Caulfield, 15 July, R7 Supido

[kiwiz]

Hey Doc,,winner Flemington Saturday,,looks like he qualified

[kiwiz]

Bonny O'Reilly,,winner Rosehill Saturday,,looks like she qualified

[kiwiz]

Merchant Navy looks like a qualifier
R4 Caulfield today

[grizzle]

redkirk warrior, royal symphony, larlabrook, viridine, sweet embrace & silvera, all won for me

[kiwiz]

Final Salute,,winner Belmont Saturday,,looks like he qualified

[kiwiz]

Dream Finnish,,winner Belmont Saturday,,looks like she qualified

[kiwiz]

In Her Time,,winner Randwick,,looks like she qualified

[kiwiz]

She Will Reign,,winner Moonee Valley,,looks like she qualified

[kiwiz]

Snitty Kitty,,winner Moonee Valley,,looks like she qualified

[kiwiz]

Salorsci,,winner Belmont,,looks like he qualified

[kiwiz]

Dollar For Dollar,,winner Morphettville,,looks like he qualified

[kiwiz]

Pinch River,,winner Doomben Sat,,looks like he qualified

[kiwiz]

Care To Think,,winner Doomben Sat,,looks like he qualified

[kiwiz]

Illustrious Tycoon,,winner Ascot Sat,,looks like he qualified

[kiwiz]

Itz Invincible,,winner Morphettville Sat,,looks like he qualified

[kiwiz]

Fortensky,,winner Randwick Sat,,looks like he qualified

[kiwiz]

Dixie Blossoms,,winner Randwick today,,looks like she qualified

[kiwiz]

Osborne Bulls,,winner Randwick today,,looks like he qualified

[kiwiz]

Despatch,,winner Morphettville Sat,,looks like he qualified

[nutz]

1. The horse is first up from a spell of at least 2 months.

2. It has a winning strike rate of at least 25% and a first up winning strike rate of at least 50%.


Some other factors I consider:

Recent trial form if applicable
Jockey strike rate
Sprinter or stayer resuming
Betting movement

[squirtz]

Some other factors I consider:

Recent trial form if applicable
Jockey strike rate
Sprinter or stayer resuming
Betting movement
Stayer resuming - with good first-up (or second-up) form = value place betting

[grizzle]

(randwick) pure elation, comin through & redzel, won for me

[grizzle]

(caulfield) ball of muscle, ellicazoom & mrs gardenia, won for me

[grizzle]

(morphettville) farooq & (belmont) nelson's flight, won for me

[grizzle]

(rosehill) lean mean machine & invincibella, won for me

[grizzle]

(randwick) i like it easy & stampede & belflyer, won for me

[kiwiz]

Stayer resuming - with good first-up (or second-up) form = value place betting
Ditto Middle Distance horses

[justinfront]

Stayer resuming - with good first-up (or second-up) form = value place betting
absolutely!