Third up winners ...

[Neil]

This betting system operates on Saturdays and major public holiday meetings at Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane.

Here are the rules.

1. The horse is third up from a spell of at least 2 months.

2. Its first 2 runs are 12, 21, 22, 13, 31, 23 or 32.

3. That makes it a bet - for this system ignore 2YO and jumps races.

Winners 22/10/2016

Moonee Valley
Sweet Cherry $4.00

Randwick
Reincarnate $5.00

Eagle Farm
Lord Coconuts $5.50
Bidi Babe $3.60

[Sands]

Qualifiers today

Doomben
R3 Daunting Lass
R6 In His Stride

Sandown
R4 Rock N Gold
R6 Soviet Secret
R10 Silent Sedition

[Sands]

Qualifiers tomorrow

Moonee Valley
R3 Blue Money
R4 Imperial Express
R8 I Taut I Saw
R8 Vatiaz

[Sands]

Qualifiers tonight

Canterbury
R3 Arbeitsam

Moonee Valley
R5 Definia

[Sands]

Qualifiers Saturday - Caulfield

R2 Dance With Fontein
R3 Royal Spinner
R6 Chiavari, Lady Trickster

[Sands]

Results Sat 1 April

Morphettville
R8 Here To There 1st

Ascot
R1 Victorious Lad 1st

Bendigo
R7 War Legend 2rd
R8 Milwaukee 1st

Randwick
R5 Smart Amelia 3rd
R6 Sircconi 4th
R9 Happy Clapper 2nd

[darkydog2002]

Hi Sands,

Is it in profit since it was first posted?

Cheers
darky

[Sands]

I'm in front but I have not followed this system religiously

[kiwiz]

Data Point looks like a qualifier
R8 Moonee Valley Saturday

[demodocus]

1. The horse is third up from a spell of at least 2 months.
2. Its first 2 runs are 12, 21, 22, 13, 31, 23 or 32.
3. That makes it a bet - for this system ignore 2YO and jumps races.


Long term WSR =19.7%, mostly favourites. :-)

[Lord Greystoke]

Long term WSR =19.7%, mostly favourites. :-)

How's about if we swap the 2 and 3 with a 4 or 5 Demodocus?

LG

[demodocus]

How's about if we swap the 2 and 3 with a 4 or 5 Demodocus?LG
Wandering into the realms of fantasy.

Here's a quick go using a sample of 288,224 as follows:-

Today's Going = Good
Distance <=1650m.
DSLS <=30
Field 8 - 14
Prev. Races >=4

Taking the SUM of the Last 2 Places to generate a WSR

2 ....... 20.35%
3 ....... 17.40%
4 ....... 16.17
5 ....... 15.28
6 ....... 14.02
7 ....... 13.29
8 ....... 12.40
9 ....... 11.44
10 ..... 10.46

Hence 2PLACE is a fair indicator, but the "flat" spot could be costly.

[demodocus]

Hence 2PLACE is a fair indicator, but the "flat" spot could be costly.
So, using exactly the same data and conditions I had a look at SUM of last 2 starts Beaten Dist rather than Place.

<=1 ..... 18.63%
2 .......... 16.23
3 .......... 15.31
4 .......... 14.04
5 .......... 13.29
6 .......... 12.92
7 .......... 11.76
8 .......... 10.79
9 .......... 10.11

Time to take Mr Jack to the beach. Have a good day.

[SpeedyBen]

Long term WSR =19.7%, mostly favourites. :-)
A good lay system then. I'll get my bot to test it on that basis.

[El Gordo]

Long term WSR =19.7%, mostly favourites. :-)
Why not make it part of an all up or multi. With a bit luck you'll have more reasons to smile.

[SpeedyBen]

Í've been testing this for about a week on all Oz races, including harness, and it has had 13 wins from 56 runners for a LS profit of about 20 units if you stick to those under 12.00.
Above 12.0 there have been 36 straight losses.
All divs are BF, of course.

[Sands]

Long term WSR =19.7%, mostly favourites

Why not make it part of an all up or multi. With a bit luck you'll have more reasons to smile.
Good value can be got coupling up horse racing favourites (you may like) into sports events like golf, where those in the market can start at double figures odds.

[kiwiz]

Happy Clapper,,winner Randwick,,looks like he qualified

[kiwiz]

Booker,,winner Caulfield,,looks like she qualified

[goldeee]

1. The horse is third up from a spell of at least 2 months.

2. Its first 2 runs are 12, 21, 22, 13, 31, 23 or 32.

Use a similar system with success, but look at last 4 runs before the spell for like pattern "12, 21, 22, 13, 31, 23 or 32" etc

[goldeee]

1. The horse is third up from a spell of at least 2 months.

2. Its first 2 runs are 12, 21, 22, 13, 31, 23 or 32.

Another variation
I sometimes consider the average beaten lengths (win = 0) from the first 2 runs after a spell, instead of the like pattern "12, 21, 22, 13, 31, 23 or 32" etc

[kiwiz]

Another variation
I sometimes consider the average beaten lengths (win = 0) from the first 2 runs after a spell, instead of the like pattern "12, 21, 22, 13, 31, 23 or 32" etc
Silent Warrior,,winner Morphettville Sat,,may have qualified

[goldeee]

Another variation
I sometimes consider the average beaten lengths (win = 0) from the first 2 runs after a spell, instead of the like pattern "12, 21, 22, 13, 31, 23 or 32" etc
Another filter working well at the moment - (third up) in top 3 betting

[darkydog2002]

Good onya Goldee.

Something new coming up at last.

[Vortech]

Another filter working well at the moment - (third up) in top 3 betting


FYI - Over the last month this has had around 862 bets for 203 winners.
Return of $724.50 or a LOT of around 16%

[goldeee]

Cheers Vortech
I don't wager in every race where the filter is true. Mad if you do imo. I'm more selective, which has been working for me so far.