A question on Trends

[darkydog2002]

Hi Paul and Michel,

Do you see a trend as to why better Priced horses are now appearing to dominate the first 4 Races.

In the past a FAV bettor would discontinue betting after Race 4.

Has me perplexed?

Cheers,
darky

[Every Topic]

Not sure what you mean by "now appearing" but just ran a quick test of faves under $3 for last year.

all faves
Win SR 40.50% LOT -3.96%
Place SR 71.50% POT 3.97%

first 4 races
Win SR 41.5-60% LOT -3.62%
Place SR 72.80% POT 5.15%

This appears consistent with what we have discussed in here often - the bias in first 4 races.

Just a note...
I looked at one of my faves systems.
In January last year it made a small loss.
In February it broke even and for the rest of the year it made a profit every month.
If one had been standing there in Feb last year and looking back over a couple of months, one could have said that my fave system wasn't working.
Even very successful methods can have quiet times for a month or two.

Hope that helps in some way...
ET

[darkydog2002]

It does and thank you.

Cheers
darky

[The Ocho]

Not sure what you mean by "now appearing" but just ran a quick test of faves under $3 for last year.

all faves
Win SR 40.50% LOT -3.96%
Place SR 71.50% POT 3.97%

first 4 races
Win SR 41.5-60% LOT -3.62%
Place SR 72.80% POT 5.15%

This appears consistent with what we have discussed in here often - the bias in first 4 races.

Just a note...
I looked at one of my faves systems.
In January last year it made a small loss.
In February it broke even and for the rest of the year it made a profit every month.
If one had been standing there in Feb last year and looking back over a couple of months, one could have said that my fave system wasn't working.
Even very successful methods can have quiet times for a month or two.

Hope that helps in some way...
ET
Are you saying that place bets on the first fav $3 and under (on the win market) is making a pot? Is that based on Tab or Betfair prices?

[The Ocho]

Mmmmm, No activity on this section for 2 months now. Have this mob gone out of business?

[evajb001]

Wasn't even them who answered darky's question lol

[The Ocho]

Wasn't even them who answered darky's question lol
You're right! Nothing from R2W since 2 January 2017. :eek:
That's nearly 5 months. I know its sometimes pretty quite in here but that's ridiculous!

[blackdog1]

You're right! Nothing from R2W since 2 January 2017. :eek:
That's nearly 5 months. I know its sometimes pretty quite in here but that's ridiculous!At least they still take your money, according to their website.

[darkydog2002]

I am another who msses their invaluable input .

Helped me to become a far better punter,

Cheers.
darky

[thorns]

Still post on social media lots, and contribute articles and race analysis for Betfair. Just not on here anymore it seems.

Still in business as well.

[Management]

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