question for the stats men

[partypooper]

Can anyone tell me the stats for No.1 all Australian Horse racing <$11 and also $11>, any help appreciated

[Every Topic]

according to my data, for last year...

under $11, TAB 1 and best tote
Win SR 20.2% POT -6.5%
Place SR 47.3% POT -2.42%

over $11
Win SR 3.6% POT -21.5%
Place SR 15.5% POT -16.18%

Wow, can those numbers be true?

under $5... just out of curiousity
Win SR 28% POT -5.6%
Place SR 58.6% POT 1.37%

and... under $1.80 TAB 1
Win SR 62.4% POT 2.66%
Place 84.6% POT 7.79%

did that help?

[partypooper]

Brilliant Every Topic, and as you say weird, if it's not asking too much could you Divide that into Handicaps and non handicaps?

[Every Topic]

pp if I knew how to do that I would lol
I would also be interested in knowing the breakdown of this when TAB 1 is a heavier weight than the others in the field but again I am not sure how to make all the filters work in this database.
Hopefully someone else is watching and knows the answer...

[thorns]

From November 2014 to yesterday:

Win results

All Races
SP Under 11
SR: 20.3%
POT @ best Tote: -7.23%
POT @ BFWAP: -6.56

Place
SR 47.5%
POT @ best Tote: -2.84

Non Maiden Races
Under 11
SR: 20.0%
POT @ best Tote: -7.19%

Place
SR 46.9%
POT @ best tote: -2.19%


So pretty much same results as ET.

[thorns]

pp if I knew how to do that I would lol
I would also be interested in knowing the breakdown of this when TAB 1 is a heavier weight than the others in the field but again I am not sure how to make all the filters work in this database.
Hopefully someone else is watching and knows the answer...Think I have worked this one out

Win SR: 20.2%
POT at Best tote: -5.91

Place SR 46.8%
Place POT @ best tote: -1.92%

[partypooper]

Mmmmm, the plot thickens (doesn't it always?) there's so many what ifs" like so number 1 in a maiden race has still the same statistic as the best horse , (as rated by the "expert" handicapper) that's pretty sobering yes?

[blackdog1]

Mmmmm, the plot thickens (doesn't it always?) there's so many what ifs" like so number 1 in a maiden race has still the same statistic as the best horse , (as rated by the "expert" handicapper) that's pretty sobering yes?I'm stating the bleeding obvious here but I have a point.
The only difference between maiden races and others is that in a maiden race no horse has won a race previously (not strictly true).

Disregard quality of horses for the exercise.

The point is that as long as they have records, you can handicap them same as other races.
This is the reason there is little diff. as far as favs. go.

Where you should avoid them is, when there is a number of unknown /to you/ first starters.

But you knew all this already!

[Every Topic]

yes I agree with that.
I place bet short priced faves but dont back them if they have less than 3 runs under their belt or if there is more than one no form horse in the race.

[thorns]

MDN Handicaps with no first starters

Nov 14 to yesterday
Races: 711
SR: 27.4%
POT at BT: -0.07
POT at BT/SP: 2.19%
Max outs: 19

[Thenewguy]

At provisional and country meetings, I find first start favourites under 3 win over 50% and return a positive POT. First start favourites under 2 hits at over 80% winners and again a positive POT.

[Chrome Prince]

At provisional and country meetings, I find first start favourites under 3 win over 50% and return a positive POT. First start favourites under 2 hits at over 80% winners and again a positive POT.

This might help using TAB prices:
Favourite and under $3.00 Provincial and Country
Selections 5,166
Win Strike Rate 42.78%
Place Strike Rate 70.65%
Win Loss -8.65%
Place Loss -6.59%

Favourite and under $2.00 Provincial and Country
Selections 1,509
Win Strike Rate 53.61%
Place Strike Rate 79.72%
Win Loss -10.99%
Place Loss -4.79%

[Every Topic]

I ran this for last year on the basis that it is provincial and country meets, the fave is under $3.00, its the horses first start and its a maiden race.

Best tote
Win SR 42% POT -5.2%
P SR 70.7% POT 2.87%

and its slightly worse for under $2.

I will add, however, that it is not uncommon in those kinds of races to have two close faves and that might be distorting these numbers.