Some Simple Systems

[woody]

System #1

Pre-post favourite
Last start winner in the last 21 days
Won or placed (1,2,3) at least twice in last three starts
Run within 100 metres of today’s distance in at least one of its last two starts

[Shaun]

Back any fav 1st or 2nd up

[enjay]

System #1

Pre-post favourite
Last start winner in the last 21 days
Won or placed (1,2,3) at least twice in last three starts
Run within 100 metres of today’s distance in at least one of its last two starts


Hey Party, you would know this one. Published by your fav mag back in the 90,s and was called 50% HOT POTS for HOT SHOTS not sure.

enjay.

[woody]

One for enjay

System #2

Current leader state jockey premiership
More than one ride, horse with highest win strike rate (this rules out maidens & first starters)
Leader not riding, try 2nd on the jockey table
Not riding, try 3rd on the jockey table, otherwise no bet
Potentially one bet per state

[UselessBettor]

One for enjay

System #2

Current leader state jockey premiership
More than one ride, horse with highest win strike rate (this rules out maidens & first starters)
Leader not riding, try 2nd on the jockey table
Not riding, try 3rd on the jockey table, otherwise no bet
Potentially one bet per state

This one is quite interesting. One of the side effects of this system is you will be on trainers who are in form. Generally the top 3 jockeys ride for certain stables and if the trainer is out of form that jockey will not be in the top 3.

[Mike367]

I tried something similar on Sat at Sandown with Ben Thompson, with nice results.

[partypooper]

Hey Party, you would know this one. Published by your fav mag back in the 90,s and was called 50% HOT POTS for HOT SHOTS not sure.

enjay.

Yes I can kinda remember having a go at it but it was no where near 50% S/R, had a good run for a while but then the wheels fell of as usual.

[Gasomo93]

maiden races with no first starters
ignore any horse not having at least third start after spell
ignore any horse that didn’t run second or third at least twice in their last three starts
ignore any horse that didn’t finish within 3 lengths from the winner twice in those three starts
back the shortest in the market

[darkydog2002]

Top 6 Bookies OPENING QUOTE .

Bet ALL horses @ $7 +

Staking

Bet to return 4 % of your betting Bank on each selection.

i.e Bank $5000

4 % = $200

$7.50 Bet $27 / Return $202.50

etc etc

[bwuce]

race has 7 starters or less
race has mix of both male & female

back the favourite, if:
price no shorter than $2.50
is male
previous run <= 14 days

[dcpg]

Back any fav 1st or 2nd up

I ran this idea through on 3 different days:

Day 1 - 3 bets for $4.5 win all up. 66% strike rate.
Day 2 - 10 bets for $14.8 win all up. 60% strike rate.
Day 3 - 14 bets for $19.2 win all up. 50% strike rate.

I did give all favourites less than $2 a miss. I usually steer away from favourite backing (I like the longshots!) - but this idea seems to have something behind it!

[darkydog2002]

Top Weight

Fav

Won LS

[Shaun]

I ran this idea through on 3 different days:

Day 1 - 3 bets for $4.5 win all up. 66% strike rate.
Day 2 - 10 bets for $14.8 win all up. 60% strike rate.
Day 3 - 14 bets for $19.2 win all up. 50% strike rate.

I did give all favourites less than $2 a miss. I usually steer away from favourite backing (I like the longshots!) - but this idea seems to have something behind it!

Here is the last 7 days for this system, flat stake using unitab prices to a mac of 3.30

Runners 92
Av Price 2.31
Win 41
Win% 44.57%
Av W/Price 2.19
Outlay 2300.00
Ruturn 2242.50
Profit ($57.50)
P.O.T -2.50%

[Vortech]

Top Weight

Fav

Won LS


FYI Results over 2017

687 Bets
262 Winners @ 38.1% SR
Return $588.40 @ 14.4% LOT for NSW prices

Regards

[bwuce]

won LS by 1.5 lengths or more

[darkydog2002]

The only filter I would suggest is include ALL Meetings.

That was its original contention.

Though when I did place a substantial amount on a few years ago I included .

Same Jockey

Same Distance .

Cheers

[iggy25]

had at least 6 starts
win strike rate of at least 25%
place strike rate of at least 40%
won at the distance or within 100 metres under or over
placed at today’s track
more than one selection back the horse with the best win strike rate

[sportzcaster]

ignore races < than 1200 metres, 2yo or hurdle or steeple

back the favourite if,
not first up
ran 1st 2nd 3rd or 4th at its last start
not going back in distance from its previous run
not going up in distance more than 200 metres from its previous run

that's it

[Kingston Rule]

not going back in distance from its previous run

wouldn't necessarily dismiss if on pace that run

[Vortech]

Track Condition : Heavy

TAB: 10 - 24

API Rank: 1 - 1

Unitab Rank: 100 - 98

[sportzRus]

Back any fav 1st or 2nd up
would also give consideration fav 3rd up

[darkydog2002]

8 or less runners.

Fav @the jump.

[Vortech]

What you sometimes find is although the favourites get up in smaller fields more regularly, the average dividend is a lot less making the overall profit is the same.

[Shaun]

I am now looking at laying favs for the place if under 1.40

[thorns]

I am now looking at laying favs for the place if under 1.40
Good luck, its ************ hard work trying to get them to show a profit, I cant get the penny to drop here. I can break even but just cant get them onto the good side. Like everything, you have a nice run of lay wins, then a string of 20 odd get up and burst your bubble taking any profit along with it.


Definitely not impossible, and i'll be envious if you can crack the code!
Have spent far to many hours trying myself.

[Mark]

Good luck, its ************ hard work trying to get them to show a profit, I cant get the penny to drop here. I can break even but just cant get them onto the good side. Like everything, you have a nice run of lay wins, then a string of 20 odd get up and burst your bubble taking any profit along with it.


Definitely not impossible, and i'll be envious if you can crack the code!
Have spent far to many hours trying myself.

Surely not thorns. You already have the code.

[thorns]

Surely not thorns. You already have the code.

Yes good point, I guess I should have said, standing individually to turn a profit is hard work.

[Shaun]

Good luck, its ************ hard work trying to get them to show a profit, I cant get the penny to drop here. I can break even but just cant get them onto the good side. Like everything, you have a nice run of lay wins, then a string of 20 odd get up and burst your bubble taking any profit along with it.


Definitely not impossible, and i'll be envious if you can crack the code!
Have spent far to many hours trying myself.

If i could get my hands on some reliable betfair data i could better back test it, using Tab prices isn't the same even in the place market.

[Chrome Prince]

If i could get my hands on some reliable betfair data i could better back test it, using Tab prices isn't the same even in the place market.
Reliable is the key word here Shaun. For some reason betfair data contains prices for horses that were scratched, and not just late scratchings way too often.

[demodocus]

If i could get my hands on some reliable betfair data i could better back test it, using Tab prices isn't the same even in the place market.
There is a problem with using Betfair prices. The SP doesn't usually match the price that the horse was actually bet at ..... it's simply the 'last price matched'. If you look under the LHS tab on Betfair you can see the span of matching.

[UselessBettor]

There is a problem with using Betfair prices. The SP doesn't usually match the price that the horse was actually bet at ..... it's simply the 'last price matched'. If you look under the LHS tab on Betfair you can see the span of matching.

Betfair SP isn't th last priced matched. Its a completely different figure (although might be close). Betfair has a specific algorithmn to it to match all remaining money when the market goes in play.

But before that the prices on betfair exchange can be quite wild and it can range significantly.

[demodocus]

Betfair SP isn't th last priced matched. Its a completely different figure (although might be close).
But before that the prices on betfair exchange can be quite wild and it can range significantly.

Quite right UB, my apogolies .... what I was trying to refer to was the price that Betfair includes in its' results data .... not the Betfair SP which is a totally different animal as you point out.

Nasty hit yesterday, Morp. R5 #17 .... yuck!!

[UselessBettor]

Nasty hit yesterday, Morp. R5 #17 .... yuck!!

Hopefully not too bad a hit ?

I got through yesterday with a clean sheet of a profit on every race I bet into which resulted in a good profit. My issue at the moment is greyhounds causing me losses all over the place.

[woody]

System #3

As per UBET site:

Rating = 100
Form includes "C"
That's it
Bet 2x3

Seems to be just the one selection today
Wagga R5 Ticked Off

[darkydog2002]

Keep them coming Woody.

I love these "Spot Plays"

Cheers.

[partypooper]

Wagga R5-3 Flying Cyril $8.06,whilst not 100 rater was actually the Top Rater @96

[darkydog2002]

Onya fellers.

[Seekray]

Whatever the system, take into account the track condition, especially racing on all-weather racing surfaces & rain affected tracks

[Seekray]

Whatever the system, take into account the track condition, especially racing on all-weather racing surfaces & rain affected tracks
And don't forget the speed map, always a good starting point

[Seekray]

all-weather racing surfaces
Especially the form already shown at the particular track they're racing at

[grizzle]

Whatever the system, take into account the track condition, especially racing on all-weather racing surfaces & rain affected tracks
some say keep away from rain affected tracks
do your homework & they can work for you

[Seekray]

some say keep away from rain affected tracks
do your homework & they can work for you
Absolutely
Backing & laying

[PrinceJudea]

And don't forget the speed map, always a good starting point
Referencing reliable speed maps very important imo.
Not only to predict the running position of each horse in the field and likely pace of the race but also to establish if those drawn inside or outside will be advantaged or disadvantaged.

[kiwiz]

Referencing reliable speed maps very important imo.
Not only to predict the running position of each horse in the field and likely pace of the race but also to establish if those drawn inside or outside will be advantaged or disadvantaged.
Likely race pace very useful if you fancy a backmarker

[demodocus]

Likely race pace very useful if you fancy a backmarker
Evidence ???

[Seekray]

??
Common knowledge & from my punting experience, backmarkers rely on a fast race tempo, to do best
??

[jake]

..early days
..fine tuning a simple little system mainly based on jockey / horse / track condition (horse) strike rates
..a few other filters including must be fancied in the market

[jake]

..a few other filters including must be fancied in the market
..reference to a reliable speed map a big plus

[piratebird]

Jake, what speed map would you say is the most reliable?. I always see a few different ratings amongst them as I search for a good one. Thanks.

[piratebird]

Can I just put this out there for anyone to answer if they can. I have a couple of methods that I use that rely on speed maps. The problem I run into is that different speed maps give conflicting results. It is not uncommon to get a runner being listed on one site as a leader and on another site be listed as on pace and in some cases be listed as a midfield runner. I really need to get the most reliable one. If that means paying for one then so be it. I just want one that can be trusted to be accurate. I'd appreciate anyone's advice on this. Thanks.

[jake]

The problem I run into is that different speed maps give conflicting results.
..piratebird
..speed map checking for me happens towards the end of my review process for all my "systems" so this aspect not super critical
..1. check that likely pace & placement for my selection/s is positive
..2. also reconsider non-selections..in the market..& look suitably placed
..sometimes as a result of point 2..I have a saver or two
..at the moment I'm mainly using the free one provided by racenet
..am finding it generally reliable
..there's a few other freebie sites I'm yet to look at more closely & haven't touched on payed sites
..hope this helps

[piratebird]

Thanks Jake. To explain what I meant about different maps, I have just had a look at Race 5 in Ascot tomorrow and Bel My Pago is showing up as a Mid fielder with Racenet and Sportsbet but as a Backmarker with Racing & Sports. As I never back backmarkers it looks like I will be leaving this race alone. I suppose if you just kept to the same speed map provider all the time it would even itself out. It's just a bit of a worry that's all. Thanks again for your reply, I appreciate it.

[Ascot Al]

Interesting. Just had a look at the replay of Bel My Pago's only two runs over tomorrows race distance. Settled no worse than midfield & not that far off the pace. If you also look at racenet's closing speed map you'll notice Bel My Pago clearly in front. As I said, interesting!

[piratebird]

Thanks Al, and yes I did see the closing speed on Racenet. My only qualm about closing speeds is that the horse has to be in the position to get a clear run and be able to use that burst of speed. Maybe I should just leave the R&S site alone and go with Racenet. Thanks for your reply.

[Try Try Again]

Hi Piratebird,

I also use the Recent Speed maps. One thing to note the Speed map does change with scratchings. I have seen horses that are listed as a Pace runner but listed as a Mid field runner after scratchings.

Important to check close to the race.

Try Try Again

[humdinger]

..piratebird
..speed map checking for me happens towards the end of my review process for all my "systems" so this aspect not super critical
..1. check that likely pace & placement for my selection/s is positive
..2. also reconsider non-selections..in the market..& look suitably placed
..sometimes as a result of point 2..I have a saver or two
..at the moment I'm mainly using the free one provided by racenet
..am finding it generally reliable
..there's a few other freebie sites I'm yet to look at more closely & haven't touched on payed sites
..hope this helps
Not much of a speed map fan but might take another look. Thanks jake

[humdinger]

Important to check close to the race.
Try Try Again
Roger that! Thanks Try Try Again

[WildWildWest]

Not much of a speed map fan but might take another look. Thanks jake
I've found the 'Giddy Up' speed maps useful. They cover all three race codes.

[suds]

I've found the 'Giddy Up' speed maps useful. They cover all three race codes.
Giddy Up? free or pay?

[blackdog1]

Giddy Up? free or pay?https:Guide-Pricing.asp


You'd have to do reasonably well in your punting to afford it when there are free sources of same.

[Sands]

Giddy Up? free or pay?
TABtouch, free

[suds]

Thanks Sands

[Sands]

TABtouch, free
Their mobile app

[WesternForce]

Anybody do horse v horse (in same race) comparisons as part of their selections process? Just started evaluating this feature freely available for WA horse racing on the Customer Racing Information Service (CRIS) website. You can compare an individual horse performance against other horses in the same race. Or you can compare all horses in the race against each other. Might potentially be a simple system. Any other sites do this for other state racing?

[reinz]

Anybody do horse v horse (in same race) comparisons as part of their selections process? Just started evaluating this feature freely available for WA horse racing on the Customer Racing Information Service (CRIS) website. You can compare an individual horse performance against other horses in the same race. Or you can compare all horses in the race against each other. Might potentially be a simple system. Any other sites do this for other state racing?
http://au.racingstats247.com/h2h/ :)

[slowseriousstab]

Anybody do horse v horse (in same race) comparisons as part of their selections process? Just started evaluating this feature freely available for WA horse racing on the Customer Racing Information Service (CRIS) website. You can compare an individual horse performance against other horses in the same race. Or you can compare all horses in the race against each other. Might potentially be a simple system. Any other sites do this for other state racing?
When reviewing head-to-heads it's important you focus more on the encounters on a same or similar track condition to "todays" race

[Sands]

When reviewing head-to-heads it's important you focus more on the encounters on a same or similar track condition to "todays" race
And I would think more emphasis on encounters over similar distances to todays race

[shaven]

Dual Acceptors. Wouldn't punt them all but maybe filter no. 1

[horsewithnoname]

Dual Acceptors. Wouldn't punt them all but maybe filter no. 1
Hi shaven. Is that dual acceptors for just the raceday only?

[kiwiz]

Plenty of potentials these days if you look at a six day window

[shaven]

Hi shaven. Is that dual acceptors for just the raceday only?
Sorry horsewithnoname, been on a nice long holiday.
If you mean that the horse is a dual acceptor just for the particular day you are looking at (& not any other race in the near future), then the answer is no.

[shaven]

Plenty of potentials these days if you look at a six day window
That would work for me.

[horsewithnoname]

Sorry horsewithnoname, been on a nice long holiday.
If you mean that the horse is a dual acceptor just for the particular day you are looking at (& not any other race in the near future), then the answer is no.
No worries. Thanks.

[Bhagwan]

Hi Reinz
That 247 race site is very good.

They have a thingo there, rating the horse in "Top 3%."

Do you know what that means?

The rating pts, of the "Top 3%" seem to be very accurate.

[humdinger]

Starting point for a simple system:
Look at each runner last five starts
If they started at 10/1 or less, at two of those starts or more & are 20/1 or over today, take a closer look

[pop]

Starting point for a simple system:
Look at each runner last five starts
If they started at 10/1 or less, at two of those starts or more & are 20/1 or over today, take a closer look
just noticed that Warrnambool r6n11 winner at big odds last Tuesday fitted your criteria for a closer look
interesting ;)

[kiwiz]

Starting point for a simple system:
Look at each runner last five starts
If they started at 10/1 or less, at two of those starts or more & are 20/1 or over today, take a closer look
Adding third-up from a spell works for me.

[kiwi]

I find systems don't work. Fluctuations kill them.
They will work fine for a few days then completely fail.

[proxy]

Starting point for a simple system:
Look at each runner last five starts
If they started at 10/1 or less, at two of those starts or more & are 20/1 or over today, take a closer look
Works for me.

[kiwi]

Okay not many winners pay $20+.
How many non winning horses per race do you back to find the winner " that works for you"?
This Saturday at Sandown there were no $20 winners.
Newcastle there were no $20+ winners.
Doomben no $20+ winners
Ascot might have been 2 qualifiers?

The system might have merit if you stick to female only, maidens and 1,000m races.

[proxy]

Works for me.
Still working well for me :)

[grizzle]

Still working well for me :)
Have tried recently, getting some good priced strikes, win & place

[humdinger]

Have tried recently, getting some good priced strikes, win & placeWhere it's a decent div, been playing the place multi (e.g. into sports) with some great value results

[Lord Greystoke]

Bit of fun ...

Step 1 Circle all sprint and distance races (1000-1200m or 1600m+)

Step 2 Select one horse per race = best jock in the field (Premiership table)

Step 3 Stop when in profit

Best of luck chaps.

Cheers LG

[SpeedyBen]

Good to see that you are still alive, My Lord.

[partypooper]

Bit of fun ...

Step 1 Circle all sprint and distance races (1000-1200m or 1600m+)

Step 2 Select one horse per race = best jock in the field (Premiership table)

Step 3 Stop when in profit

Best of luck chaps.

Cheers LG

I like that one "Lord" keep it simple!! gets the goods! funny though I always targeted races 1400-1600 , there you go!

[rhino82]

Where it's a decent div, been playing the place multi (e.g. into sports) with some great value results
Yep, do that too, both win & place, mainly into sports futures

[Sands]

Yep, do that too, both win & place, mainly into sports futures
Can't do that with the new TABtouch sports betting application. Their racing system doesn't talk to their sports system.

[grizzle]

Can't do that with the new TABtouch sports betting application. Their racing system doesn't talk to their sports system.
That's because it's not "their" sports system, they're using someone else's sports betting service. ;)

[Shaun]

Not sure what to do with this one, look at TAB fixed opening prices and back every runner listed $2 or less, a couple other filters are barrier 6 or less and leader or midfield runner.

Lots of winners and placing but prices short, BF is best, i have been playing around with stopping at 3 units profit or 2 units loss.

[jake]

That's because it's not "their" sports system, they're using someone else's sports betting service. ;)
..using the Kambi Group sportsbook

[Unstable]

Not sure what to do with this one, look at TAB fixed opening prices and back every runner listed $2 or less, a couple other filters are barrier 6 or less and leader or midfield runner.

Lots of winners and placing but prices short, BF is best, i have been playing around with stopping at 3 units profit or 2 units loss.

Hi Shaun,

Good Question, the stats say, early races produce more wining fav then late races, if that's the case, stopping at "", unit profit would be the way to go. The most important decision to make is when to invest, last minute? The stats suggest, the market early will be around 135%. At jump, it could be as low as 110%. This indicates, investing early, will give you better value.

Now, your $2.20 fav early, could change, to be as low as $1.90.

So, in your system, betting $2.00 or less, you would have missed out on considerable value and long term, you will lose, even betting in those early races.

Time wise is so critical, in investing at the pointy end of the market, there is not a lot of margin and you need every edge possible.

You are correct, BF is better than Tab odds, around 16% better than tote on average, after commission around the 12% mark, now that's an edge not to overlook.

For interest sake I ran your System through my data base, results below.

Tab fixed price at jump time =<$2.00, BP<7 and Settling <6.

WIN PLACE
Races Bet: 612 588
Races Won: 319 464
S.R./Race: 52.1% 78.9%
Outlay($): 612.00 588.00
Return : 532.75 540.84
$ Profit : -79.25 -47.16
% P.O.T. : -12.9% -8.0%

Top Win Return: $568.41 Top Win Profit: $-43.59 Top Win % P.O.T.: -7.1%

[punts2]

Starting point for a simple system:
Look at each runner last five starts
If they started at 10/1 or less, at two of those starts or more & are 20/1 or over today, take a closer look
Continue to have lots of fun with this quick & simple approach! Thanks humdinger :)

[grizzle]

Continue to have lots of fun with this quick & simple approach! Thanks humdinger :)
Me too :)

[Chenille Prince]

Not much of a speed map fan but might take another look. Thanks jake
Do find speed maps useful, I especially look at nags drawn on the speed with good recent form over slightly longer distances (say 100m - 200m longer) than today's race

[rhino82]

Do find speed maps useful, I especially look at nags drawn on the speed with good recent form over slightly longer distances (say 100m - 200m longer) than today's race
Yep. Also throws up some good value winners, having had two or three runs following a spell.