Am I on the right track?

[ShoeIn]

Morning All,

Still a bit of a novice to the racing game and wanted your expert opinions on a system I am trying to finalise. Basically I have points system stemming from 4 main categories:

1. Class - points based on average prizemoney

2. Consistency - points based on aggregate number of lengths beaten by in last 4 starts

3. Fitness - points based on number of starts over last 2 months.

4. Distance/Track - points based on Win/Place %'s.

If you could provide me with some feedback on this, particularly any key factors you think I am missing it would be most appreciated.

Cheers
ShoeIn

[Neil]

Hi,
Ultimately a detailed form analysis approach needs to be applied. Eg beaten three lengths in an Open Handicap held up until the 100 and then running on strongly is far superior to being beaten one length in a restricted event having the run of the race.
Class does not equal prize money won - in preparation of Pro-Punter information we never even look at prizemoney won.
If you do a forum search you should find a big thread about prizemoney and class.
Hope this is some help.
Neil.

[Shaun]

That sounds good...the only changes i would make are with average prizemoney....i would consider only the last 12 months as if they had some success as a young horses they may not be doing aswell as an older horse but the average prizemoney does not take this in to account and i only use there last 3 starts because the horse may not have been inform untill the last couple of races and you want an improveing horse not one that has had a few wins and is on the decline

[puntz]

Shaun, very good point.
The seelction criteria is from a punting book
and has only 1 page where it mentions prize money to be considered.
There is a 2nd book to I have read, and no where it mentions prize money.

For the record, the one that uses prize money
rules are:

summary mentions GROUP 1 Cup races.


1. WFA and Set weight races only.
2. Identify the top three so far as AVERAGE PRIZE MONEY is concerned.
3. Udentify any of these three with a win strike rate of 20% or higher.
4. If more than one,take the one with the highest strike rate.
The sumary then say's:

Total number of selections: 47
Total number of wins: 11
Avergae price of winners 4/1
Total number of place getters 24
win strike 23.4 %
place stike 51.06 %
Total win return $53.09
Total win profit $6.09
P.o.t. : 12.96%

80 pages of selection criteria, one per page.
Number of those pages with selection criteria that use prize money factor : 1

[Chrome Prince]

ShoeIn,

Average Prizemoney is not an indicator of class on it's own, however, combined with other factors it is extremely powerful.

Couple of suggestions -

Look at the beaten margin, not the finishing position.
Consider the previous race prizemoney in comparison to today's race prizemoney.
The number of days break is more of a guide to fitness combined with beaten margin.
Get yourself a database, either pay for one or build one youself, so you can test the importance of various theories. You'll be amazed at what shows up, and what traditional theories are just plain rubbish.

Trash 3 year old races and horses - generally they are under the odds and fail to perform unless you are extremely selective. This is usually due to hype as 2yo's.

HTH.

[Shaun]

I would like to hear from anyone on what they think the best way to determin class of a race horse do you use weight ratings or what

[ShoeIn]

Appreciate the replies to date.

Thanks for the pointer re prizemoney on offer at last start. I suppose Pristine Partners yesterday was a prime example at Warwick Farm. With my ratings I had Thundarosa a clear pick. However if I had used the prizemoney for the last start (I recall Pristine Partners jumped favourite at Randwick and folded to finish last) it would have definitely affected my ratings.

Cheers
ShoeIn

[gunny72]

Hi
I feel you could just concentrate on consistency and fitness and then go for value. I have analysed class and distance and find that the information available does not allow reliable ratings on these factors. This is not saying they are not important factors, just extremely difficult to measure.
Enjoy your analysis
John

[Dale]

Shoeln,

Just on the consistency aspect you say your looking at the beaten margin at their last 4 starts.
Horses that were placed close up at their last 4 starts will more than likely be over bet,if you could re jig that to look at the best 3 finishes of the last 4 starts you might get a bit more value in your selections and you would not be penalising a horse for having an off day,as they do sometimes.

[thevig]

Prize-money alone not an indicator of class. For example, a horse called abaridy won a big race on a wet track- heaps of prize-money, yet won very few races thereafter- I know, to my cost. Van Der Hum won a fortune- few would call him a class horse - you need to consider consistency as well. E.g how many wins out of how many starts. Class horses a) Win high percentage of starts AND
b) Place with great regularity AND
c) Win stakes or w.f.a regularly
We can all recognise some class horses e.g Northerly, Sunline etc. Relative class in weaker fields is a valid idea but harder to define.

[Bhagwan]

If you want the most sophisticated data base in the world , with heaps of data interigation modules , then you can`t go past the GTSi program from TRB (The Ratings Bureau)
http://www.trb.com.au

It is a tool that can be used to analyse form or test & create systems.

But be prepared to pay premo for this Rolls Royse of form compiler .
I personally use it & I am amazed what it can do.
They compile the form themselves , that way the form integrity is in tact .
There are some others that try to do similar but they rely on a second outside sourse for the data which you have to subscibe to separatly.
This can lead to file corruption if either party changes anything in their program.

It is the only one of its type that has a pre-post market as seen in newspapers.

You can single out a particular race number .
E.g. The number of top 3 ranked Favs that win in race 8 only with 8-12 starters which has a jockey on board who has placed on the horse which is racing no more than 16% greater distance & not going down in distance any less than 22% with a TAB No. of 2-6, had 5-40 career starts ,had no stewards report on previous start, finished within -5 to +5 lenths last 2 starts & is ranked in the top 5 average prize money.

Try doing that exercise manually 7 days a week & you would probably make human errors & go nuts in the process.