Price Winning Percentage

[Shaun]

I know it is in here somewhere but can't find it, can anyone tell me the percentage chance based on fav position if winning.

Fav winning 30%
2nd fav winning ?
3rd fav wining?

I know price plays a big factor but am just after an estimate.

[UselessBettor]

Roughly

34%
22%
15%

[Shaun]

Roughly

34%
22%
15%

cheers mate, that's a bit higher than i thought.

[UselessBettor]

cheers mate, that's a bit higher than i thought.

I actually wrote them down without looking it up but then went and checked the database to confirm. The numbers are right.

[darkydog2002]

So if one were Multi Betting then the first 3 in the betting would be the ones to concentate on @ 71% strike rate.

Might actually trial this.

Thanks.

[UselessBettor]

So if one were Multi Betting then the first 3 in the betting would be the ones to concentate on @ 71% strike rate.

Might actually trial this.

Thanks.

The payouts will be hopeless. Not worth it.

[darkydog2002]

Yes.

The prices and returns were hopeless.
Didn,t take me long to chuck that idea aside.

[Bhagwan]

FAV 30%
2nd- 25
3rd- 15
4th- 10
5th- 5
Total 85%

Favs % can vary a bit depending on number ot odds on shots in sample batch.

If you remove all odds on shots in that 1st FAVs 30% fig. S/R drops to 27%

[Gritz]

Metro Melb Sat only 1850 Races, 6 Dead Heats
PrePost Herald Sun, Divs Are BSP--Figures are rounded


<table style="border-collapse: collapse;width:332pt" width="443" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"> <colgroup><col style="width:65pt" width="87"> <col style="mso-width-source:userset;mso-width-alt:2176;width:51pt" width="68"> <col style="mso-width-source:userset;mso-width-alt:2730;width:64pt" width="85"> <col style="mso-width-source:userset;mso-width-alt:2261;width:53pt" width="71"> <col style="mso-width-source:userset;mso-width-alt:1962;width:46pt" width="61"> <col style="mso-width-source:userset;mso-width-alt:2261;width:53pt" width="71"> </colgroup><tbody><tr style="mso-height-source:userset;height:20.0pt" height="27"> <td class="xl72" style="height:20.0pt;width:65pt" width="87" height="27">Fav</td> <td class="xl71" style="width:51pt" width="68" align="right">32</td> <td class="xl71" style="width:64pt" width="85" align="right">1.08</td> <td class="xl71" style="width:53pt" width="71" align="right">1790</td> <td class="xl71" style="width:46pt" width="61" align="right">565</td> <td class="xl71" style="width:53pt" width="71" align="right">3.42</td> </tr> <tr style="mso-height-source:userset;height:20.0pt" height="27"> <td class="xl72" style="height:20.0pt" height="27">2nd</td> <td class="xl71" align="right">16</td> <td class="xl71" align="right">0.88</td> <td class="xl71" align="right">1783</td> <td class="xl71" align="right">291</td> <td class="xl71" align="right">5.39</td> </tr> <tr style="mso-height-source:userset;height:20.0pt" height="27"> <td class="xl72" style="height:20.0pt" height="27">3rd</td> <td class="xl71" align="right">13</td> <td class="xl71" align="right">0.96</td> <td class="xl71" align="right">1773</td> <td class="xl71" align="right">236</td> <td class="xl71" align="right">7.2</td> </tr> <tr style="mso-height-source:userset;height:20.0pt" height="27"> <td class="xl72" style="height:20.0pt" height="27">4th</td> <td class="xl71" align="right">11</td> <td class="xl71" align="right">0.99</td> <td class="xl71" align="right">1759</td> <td class="xl71" align="right">185</td> <td class="xl71" align="right">9.45</td> </tr> <tr style="mso-height-source:userset;height:20.0pt" height="27"> <td class="xl72" style="height:20.0pt" height="27">5th</td> <td class="xl71" align="right">9</td> <td class="xl71" align="right">0.94</td> <td class="xl71" align="right">1724</td> <td class="xl71" align="right">148</td> <td class="xl71" align="right">10.97</td> </tr> <tr style="mso-height-source:userset;height:20.0pt" height="27"> <td class="xl72" style="height:20.0pt" height="27">
</td> <td class="xl72">%</td> <td class="xl72">Return on $1</td> <td class="xl72">Starters</td> <td class="xl72">Winners</td> <td class="xl72">Av. BSP
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[demodocus]

The more I play with the stats the more i realise that the price is the indicator of success.

This table looks at races (287,983) and uses TAB price with Fav. Rank to generate WSR's. The selected field size was 9 - 13 starters.

RANK..........1.............2............3.............4........
$2.0...........44.8%......XX........XX..........XX
$2.5...........34.1.........XX........XX..........XX
$3.0...........28.7........29.9.......33.3.........XX
$3.5...........23.7........23.3.......24.1.........XX
$4.0...........20.0........20.2.......18.4........16.7
$4.5...........17.9........18.1.......17.6........19.3
$5.0...........15.6........14.9.......14.7........12.9

The average Aus Field is 11 (rounded .... I can't deal with 0.18 of a horse).

Doubtless it would be possible to correct either/both WSR and Price to BSP (I haven't looked).

[entropy]

The more I play with the stats the more i realise that the price is the indicator of success.

This table looks at races (287,983) and uses TAB price with Fav. Rank to generate WSR's. The selected field size was 9 - 13 starters.

RANK..........1.............2............3.............4........
$2.0...........44.8%......XX........XX..........XX
$2.5...........34.1.........XX........XX..........XX
$3.0...........28.7........29.9.......33.3.........XX
$3.5...........23.7........23.3.......24.1.........XX
$4.0...........20.0........20.2.......18.4........16.7
$4.5...........17.9........18.1.......17.6........19.3
$5.0...........15.6........14.9.......14.7........12.9

The average Aus Field is 11 (rounded .... I can't deal with 0.18 of a horse).

Doubtless it would be possible to correct either/both WSR and Price to BSP (I haven't looked).

Thanks for the interesting table demodocus, and the nice formatting!

The final price, tote or sp, is really only known after the race: I wonder what the figures look like for the available price ie just before the jump when it is possible to get a bet on?
Perhaps pool size dependent?

[UselessBettor]

Thanks for the interesting table demodocus, and the nice formatting!

The final price, tote or sp, is really only known after the race: I wonder what the figures look like for the available price ie just before the jump when it is possible to get a bet on?
Perhaps pool size dependent?

Use fixed odds instead of tote odds and you get past the final price not being known.

Also never rely on a piece of information which isn't available pre race as an input into a selection technique.

Knowing price is useful for the best predictor of success is good. Using it to be profitable is much harder.

[Bhagwan]

That's a good point UB.

To back that point up, if one were to level stakes, same amt on ea, the first 5 horses in name order in newspaper pre-post market, the level stakes loss is only -5%.

That's less of a loss than if you just bet the Fav, at level stakes,

So technically, if you could successfully delete one runner,every time, out of those 5 runners, you would be in profit.

[Bhagwan]

Correction:

That stat for 2nd favs was meant to read 20% SR not 25%

[Gritz]

In the old days you could always back the official favourite, I would ring up my bookmaker and ask for 20.00 on the official fav. which was declared after the event and would get paid the official starting price. These days knowing which horse will be fav., second fav, etc prior to the event is not always possible. That is why I pre-determine Fav. order from prepost prices.
An example of this was a system of place betting the fav. in the Melbourne cup. In 1974 I was at the cup intending to have a place bet on the fav.
unfortunately there were two equal favs Battle Heights and Leilani so with only a little time left before the off I tossed a coin and it came up to put the bet on Battle Heights. 200 meter's to go Battle Heights hit the lead and I was certain it would run the place and I would have a win, Alas Think Big won and Leilani ran a place and was the official fav. I have never tossed a coin since to decide what to back.


A lot of punters want to know prior to backing a fav. conditions, days since last start, where it ran last time out and a myriad of other conditions. This
link to Adrian Massey site will show the futility of all that effort.


Massey (http://www.adrianmassey.com/web1/fav/fav6.php1/fav/fav6.php)


Cheers

[Gritz]

That link did not work so this is the URL--


http://www.adrianmassey.com/web1/fav/fav6.php

[kiwi]

If you remove maidens and female only the strike rate may improve.

Wow Gritz that amount of detail is impressive dude.:)

[123Mick]

SP Ranking over the last 12 months Saturday Melbourne Metro races
1 435 selections 127 wins 29% SR
2 435 Selections 69 wins 15% SR
3 435 Selections 60 wins 13% SR
4 435 Selections 54 wins 12% SR
5 434 Selections 37 wins 8% SR

Pre Post Fav - Same time and place
1 435 Selections 91 wins 20% SR
2 435 Selections 63 wins 14% SR
3 435 Selections 61 wins 14% SR
4 435 Selections 52 wins 11% SR
5 434 Selections 39 wins 8% SR

[Gritz]

Mick,


I only tested for prepost fav. Not sure what your source is, mine is Herald Sun.

My result was prepost fav that actually started. 410 starters for 119 wins = 29.02% __ First prepost in test was 17/8/2019 Race 1 "Pippie" and last horse in test was 15/8/2020 Race 9 "Showmanship" Which both won


Cheers.