UB - Dealing with Losses

[UselessBettor]

I thought this might be a good thing to write up just now as many people are unable to deal with losses.

I am definitely one person who doesn't like losing too often and right now I am on a 14K drawdown mainly due to a significant spike in some dogs winning at long odds.

My last 4 days have been -3871.73, -5276.23, -1118.3, -3802.43.
That is a total loss of -14068.69

The funny thing is I am actually handing this run of losses particularly well. So how am I dealing with it?

1. I know I have an edge as I have learnt this over several years that I am a winning punter. So I know the winning edge will return.
2. I looked at each of the losing days for any anomalies and assessed the systems which were losing. Its all within the expected randomness of results so I know this is just a short term swing right now. I intend to do more thorough analysis today.
3. Its only 4 units of losses for me. My standard bet now is $3500 so its not a big losing run.
4. I won $30K last month and I know that whenever you have a run of that sort of profits in a month then its likely to swing the other way sooner than later. I have kept profits around in the account to be able to handle this losing run.
5. I have faith I know what I am doing. Self belief and confidence is a big factor when it comes down to handling losses well.
6. The amount I am losing is still insignificant to the winnings so the short term variation is expected.


Now even though I am handling it well emotionally I still hate the loss. It is driving me to find more markets to diversify into so that my drawdowns in one market are offset by winnings in other markets. I am spending all of today working on looking at those losses to see if I can find improvements for my systems (or combination of systems) and also writing new programs to get new data to create new systems.

Losing is great motivation as the pain from it sucks and it makes me want to improve so it doesn't happen again. I use these losing runs to ensure I improve my programs and my profits in the long run. Going through these losses are the only way you learn where you have overreached, not analysed something correctly, or can be used to identify new filters to improve existing systems.

After 4 losing days I expect today should be profitable :)

[Shaun]

Let us know how it goes today.

[UselessBettor]

Here is one of the races I lost on the other day:

https://www.punters.com.au/news/greyhound-does-a-bradbury_183539/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Punters+Newsletter+13%2F09&utm_content=punters.com.au%2Fnews%2Fgreyhound-does-a-bradbury_183539%2F&utm_source=www.vision6.com.au

So far so good Shaun as I am up about 2K so far today but still 9 hours to go in the day :)

[Shaun]

Here is one of the races I lost on the other day:

https://www.punters.com.au/news/greyhound-does-a-bradbury_183539/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Punters+Newsletter+13%2F09&utm_content=punters.com.au%2Fnews%2Fgreyhound-does-a-bradbury_183539%2F&utm_source=www.vision6.com.au

So far so good Shaun as I am up about 2K so far today but still 9 hours to go in the day :)

I had to laugh seeing the dog sprinting across the grass.

[UselessBettor]

I had to laugh seeing the dog sprinting across the grass.

lol yep.

Ive had a few more losses today so the losing days continue. Gatton obviously was a loser and a big loss in the trots too. so definietly a losing day.

Perhaps tomorrow will fair better.

[UselessBettor]

Was another loss yesterday. That takes the run of losing days to 5 and a loss total of 17K.

Its still within the expectation of the max draw down levels and the run of losing days but its getting close to those limits.

Lets see how today fares.

[Mark]

Great day yesterday.
MR7 of course helped.

[Shaun]

Great day yesterday.
MR7 of course helped.

Yes a few fancied runners got rolled.

[UselessBettor]

Great day yesterday.
MR7 of course helped.

I' m not surprised you won yesterday knowing your method. It would have been a very good day.

[UselessBettor]

Finally had a winning day, although it was what I would consider a break even day as I only made $566. It didn't make much of a dent in the losses with again the greyhound systems putting in another losing day.

I generally lose 8-10 days a month. This month I have already lost 8 times so I am looking for that good run of wins to happen towards the end of this month. Its swings and roundabouts when betting but I am looking forward to a few winning days being strung together.

[UselessBettor]

Still losing this month but its on the mend.

The run of losses and profits since the start of the negative run is:

-3871.73
-5276.23
-1118.3
-3802.43
-3699.57
566.31
-4367.66
3434

Today is up 2846.43 and I am expecting it can hold and be another 3K profit day.

That still leaves me a long way in the red but there is still a long way to go in this month so I am due the run of good results eventually.

[Shaun]

Hi mate, did things turn around for you?

[UselessBettor]

Yeah it has.

Since the losing run started:

-3871.73
-5276.23
-1118.3
-3802.43
-3699.57
566.31
-4367.66
3434
1749.2
3464.54
3888.7
-727.9
1672.39
-4364.17
1670.25
2090.09
2108.46
-1105.13


For the month I am breakeven. Slight profit of $140.29.

Considering the losing run was over 21K and I am breakeven for the month I'll take that as a slight win :) Can't complain after making 30K last month and 15K in July and 9K in June.

4 months with 54K profit seems like a reasonable profit to me. I just keep that in perspective :) Long term I am a big winner, short term I can have a bad month (and yes I do consider break even a bad month)

[UselessBettor]

Thought I should update this thread for how September actually turned out.

It was one of my worst months in a long time (not surprising with the large losing week) but I ended up with the following results for the month (this is from 1st September - 30th September:

1745.97
-35.86
-4496.06
2958.15
2254.68
3579.11
-2283.17
2832.19
1274.46
-3871.73
-5276.23
-1118.3
-3802.43
-3699.57
566.31
-4367.66
3434
1749.2
3464.54
3888.7
-727.9
1672.39
-4364.17
1670.25
2090.09
2108.46
-721.09
2884.41
1400.29
-1825.12


The end result so you don't need to add them up is a meager profit of $2983.91

I would have been happy if the last day had been a profit and pushed me above $5K but the loss to bring me down below 3K for the month was disappointing.

I'm so close to recovering the entire losses for that week in early September (over 21K and up at 24K during the worst point of the day) and I was exactly $93.79 behind hitting the bank high again at midnight last night. If I can push out a profit today I will be back at a bank high and doing well.

October has been winning every day and the 4 days have returned the results below:

1371.44
1785.39
1085.43
509.51

Enjoy the punting today, looks like some good racing.

[UselessBettor]

Well the losing run has ended after I finished in profit last night.

I am back at a bank high.

The entire results from the first losing day were:

-3871.73
-5276.23
-1118.3
-3802.43
-3699.57
566.31
-4367.66
3434
1749.2
3464.54
3888.7
-727.9
1672.39
-4364.17
1670.25
2090.09
2108.46
-721.09
2884.41
1400.29
-1825.12
1371.44
1785.39
1085.43
509.51
2793.8

Even when you have an edge sometimes luck can go against you.

Recovering from losses like this make me more comfortable in the future. Each time it happens, and I don't panic during the losses, I reinforce the belief that these losses are temporary and I just need to ensure I ride them out with proper staking levels compared to my bank.

[UselessBettor]

I'll post an update at the end of this month on how I have progressed but thought I would pop in and add some commentary about the last 2 days.

On Friday I was having a great day and everything was going well till I took a large loss that wiped most of the days gains. Before the loss I was at my highest ever one days earnings (previously was 4.2K ) as I was up over 5K for the day. I ended the day with only a profit of $450.07

It was a bit of a let down but sometimes things happen like that. You just have to swear at it and watch the next set of bets.

Then yesterday (Saturday) I had another great day, but this time instead of losing at the end of the day I pushed through to a personal best earnings for one day at $5,701.31.

Losses are inevitable, you have to understand they happen when gambling and risking money. The statistics for my systems tell me I am never going to be 100% right. But if you know you have an edge then you will eventually come out in front. The more you recover from losses to hit new record profits the better equipped you will be to handle those losses.

I keep pushing, I keep analysing and I just keep going at it. One of my goals is now to make 10K in a day.

[Shaun]

Cheers for the update, i understand how those highs and lows work, yesterday working with your modified idea i lost on the first race at Randwick, it's kinda a kick in the face backing 5 horses in a 6 horse field and the winner is the one you didn't back.

I was only working on a $150 return but spent the rest of the day chasing it, got in front by about $10 going in to the last bet of the day, bam another loser so ended the day with a loss of $114, still up about $110 for the week on the last day, the numbers are small but am only working with a $1000 bank to start during the trail period.

[UselessBettor]

Cheers for the update, i understand how those highs and lows work, yesterday working with your modified idea i lost on the first race at Randwick, it's kinda a kick in the face backing 5 horses in a 6 horse field and the winner is the one you didn't back.

I was only working on a $150 return but spent the rest of the day chasing it, got in front by about $10 going in to the last bet of the day, bam another loser so ended the day with a loss of $114, still up about $110 for the week on the last day, the numbers are small but am only working with a $1000 bank to start during the trail period.

Shaun,

Im glad it doesn't just happen to me. I know it really is a pain though. I guess from yesterday you have two races you can now look at in order to find a filter so the losses don't happen again. Small fields might be something to avoid ? You would need to check your results though. Maybe a race with too many last start winners ? maybe a race where you have chosen all horses with inside barriers and the winner came from an outside barrier ?

There are lots of ways to analyse a race and find those bad races.

Great to hear your up $110 for the week. Just look at the long term number. I record my record for 1 day, 4 days, 5 days, 7 days, 14 days, 28 days(I class this as one month), 90 days, 180 days and 365 days. As long as some of those numbers keep improving I know I am on the right track. Also make sure anything 28 days and longer is always in profit. Those are the ones to really care about.

hopefully today goes well for you, I am already sitting on about $1300 profit today but its a long way to go and that can disappear quickly.

[Shaun]

The filtering part is an interesting thought, since i have no control over selections i guess i could look at the winning and losing races, what type races won,distance, starters, price and anything else i can think of recording, as the winning and losing races continue it may help to filter out possible losers or even capitalize on winners,

Cheers mate, appreciate your input.

[evajb001]

I started with about $1,800 bankroll exactly 20 months ago now, been adding in $50 a fortnight to build it up but also managed almost $4,000 profit in that time span as well which i'm super proud of and keen to build further. The issue i've had is that its almost exclusively been on sports and particularly the AFL. I'm not sure whether its the lower market %'s that make it easier especially when you shop around for odds or what but I can just seem to make sport work for me much easier.

I still work daily to try and find a horse racing angle and update my data, I feel like as my data builds I get closer to finding something that will work. But for now its been a real bonus that I'm able to build a bank up with sports betting as well. Fortunately the NBA system I referred to in another thread is already up 11 units in the 3 days that I was able to bet it (before attending the manikato and cox plate at the weekend). A mate of mine that I talk to a lot about punting was able to follow it and record the data while I was going and it made a further 20 units while I was away. Fingers crossed the edge continues to be there for some time.

In closing i've managed to turn over $36k in that time period for my profit at 11.1% POT. I think the opportunities are there for anyone to take advantage of, especially if you still have access to bookie promos etc, you just have to be willing to do the work and have some patience. Its been a long journey for me in these forums etc but I feel like its gradually all coming to fruition. My absolute ultimate long term goal is to have a sort of passive income that I can feed into a share portfolio for retirement, but thats still some time off.

Love these kind of threads by the way, always generates a higher level of thinking.

[UselessBettor]

Evajb001,

Sorry for the late reply to your post but I have been travelling this week and unable to reply.

That is an amazing effort. You should be extremely proud of what you have achieved.

If you know that sports is where you edge is then that is where you should concentrate your efforts. Dabble elsewhere (horse racing) but really nail down your area of expertise and profit from it. My question would be though how sure are you that you have an edge and its not luck based ? What is the result of running an archie score against your results ? (Archie is the equivalent of a short cut chi test). What happens if you remove your biggest winner to your results? What about your 3 biggest winners? Do the same with the losers, ie what is the result excluding your biggest loser or 3 biggest losers? Has it been profitable every day/month/year/season?

Those are the sort of questions you need to ask as a starting point and I think it will help you either become a little bit wary of the results or it will reinforce your belief in your systems.

Turning over 36K in sports is a great start. Can you do 100K in the next 12 months? At an 11% profit I'll assume as you increase turnover that will reduce. Lets assume a 5% profit instead. In order to make 100K a year you need to turnover 2 million dollars. Next year do 100K then make your goal to double that every year. 100K -> 200K -> 400K -> 800K -> 1.6 Mill -> 3.2 Million. So in 6 years you could have a 100K passive income if you can hit this goal even if it reduces your profit percentage by half. The math is quite simple, so if you believe you have the edge you now have a 6 year goal. Work hard at it for 6 years and you have what you want. Seems like a good deal to me.

Of course its not as simple as the above so don't worry about the 2 million. Instead aim for 100K this year. That is simple I do that in a few hours on a Saturday so its very possible for you to do that amount over a year. 100K working backwards is say 40K in the first 6 months and 60K in the second 6 months. Of the 40K in the first 6 months 15K in the first 3 months and 25K the second three months. 15K is only 5K per month turnover. I just read you have done 36K turnover this year so 5K is a piece of cake.

Working through what I would aim for:
1st month = 1K = 1K
2nd Month = 3k = 4K
3rd Month = 5K = 9K
4th Month = 7K = 16K
5th Month = 9K = 25K
6th Month = 10K = 35K
7th Month = 10K = 45K
8th Month = 11K = 56K
9th Month = 11K = 67K
10th Month = 11K = 78K
11th Month = 12K = 90K
12th Month = 12K = 102K

Your aim is to turn over 1K in November, then 3K in December. That should be easy at your current bet levels. When it jumps to 5K it will likley stretch your comfort, when it gets to 10K it will really stretch your comfort. This assumes you stay profitable and continue to build your bank. If you lose you can't continue up the ladder as betting more requires bigger bank. So just don't lose any month and your sweet.

You need to bet within your bank limits but don't hold yourself back by fearing the big loss. If its a small part of your overall bank then you need to be confident you can recover any losses. You will never make more money without betting more, and you will never gain confidence in it till you bet more.

Keep in mind all of the above assumes you have an edge. If you don't then all the advice above will just send you to the poor house quicker.

[UselessBettor]

Well October finished with a bang with the last week producing just short of 12K. My best week ever has been 15K so not far off.

The months results day by day are below:

1371.44
1785.39
1085.43
509.51
2793.8
2735
1828.2
14.46
-2550.12
690.49
-2215.15
305.9
927.06
1416.38
2582.51
914.32
-763.84
-929.21
21.28
2852.21
1760.16
1401.44
1088.11
-482.91
450.07
5701.31
235.67
2118.14
1096.76
1301.38
1055.69

The month only had 5 losing days which is below the average of 8 losing days. As such the total winnings of 30K for the month is astounding and I am very grateful for such a good month.

It just shows that after you do have a run of bad luck that it does turn and you also get those runs of good luck.

Hopefully everyone had a profitable October and lets get some good profits in November especially with the cup week.

[Shaun]

Hey UB, if i can ask, how many different type of bets or strategies do you have running for these results?

[UselessBettor]

Hey UB, if i can ask, how many different type of bets or strategies do you have running for these results?

For October I bet 107 systems. I monitor way more than this but most are not bet.

From the 107 systems there were only 18 systems which lost. The worst by $935.09. The best system returned 3031.48.

[Shaun]

For October I bet 107 systems. I monitor way more than this but most are not bet.

From the 107 systems there were only 18 systems which lost. The worst by $935.09. The best system returned 3031.48.

So just a few,lol, so is it fair to say when it comes to an individual race if you had multiple selections the result of the race win lose or draw isn't exactly a factor as long as the systems involved are winners, in the long run that is.

[UselessBettor]

So just a few,lol, so is it fair to say when it comes to an individual race if you had multiple selections the result of the race win lose or draw isn't exactly a factor as long as the systems involved are winners, in the long run that is.

Exactly right. But my winning strike rate for races are about 99.6%. That is because I cover many chances, not only one per race.

[Shaun]

Exactly right. But my winning strike rate for races are about 99.6%. That is because I cover many chances, not only one per race.

Yes that would make sense, but how many races would you profit on? i am just assuming you have different staking per system.

[UselessBettor]

Yes that would make sense, but how many races would you profit on? i am just assuming you have different staking per system.

Every system uses level stakes and all use the same amount. When you bet big you don't get as much choice with fancy staking plans.Level profit works and while it has its drawbacks it is safest at this level of betting.

I profit on a races/sports every few minutes as I bet 24/7/365 across multiple codes (horse, greys, harness, soccer, rugby, tennis, baseball, basketball, etc). I always find Christmas day and good Friday interesting days. I use those days for offsite backups and maintenance activities as there is very little action on those two days (some football games on christmas day).

My goal is to become a 1 billion turnover per year punter. I see no reason I can not achieve this within the next couple of years considering I am already near $300 million per year. It has become more difficult now though as I can hit liquidity problems with some markets so I can't just increase my bet size and get matched so I need to find more systems, look at more sports, etc.

[Shaun]

Every system uses level stakes and all use the same amount. When you bet big you don't get as much choice with fancy staking plans.Level profit works and while it has its drawbacks it is safest at this level of betting.

I profit on a races/sports every few minutes as I bet 24/7/365 across multiple codes (horse, greys, harness, soccer, rugby, tennis, baseball, basketball, etc). I always find Christmas day and good Friday interesting days. I use those days for offsite backups and maintenance activities as there is very little action on those two days (some football games on christmas day).

My goal is to become a 1 billion turnover per year punter. I see no reason I can not achieve this within the next couple of years considering I am already near $300 million per year. It has become more difficult now though as I can hit liquidity problems with some markets so I can't just increase my bet size and get matched so I need to find more systems, look at more sports, etc.

Sorry for all the question, i just find the way you do things interesting, when it comes to monitoring your systems is this a live situation as results happen or do you calculate at the end of day, i guess there is no real end of day for you, just the thought of live monitoring over 100 systems is huge.

[UselessBettor]

Sorry for all the question, i just find the way you do things interesting, when it comes to monitoring your systems is this a live situation as results happen or do you calculate at the end of day, i guess there is no real end of day for you, just the thought of live monitoring over 100 systems is huge.

Yes its all live monitoring. Its all automated so I do nothing. I record my result for each day from midnight to midnight as the account balance is checked every couple of minutes all day long and recorded.

I live monitor at least 500+ systems. I have disabled quite a few too which have recorded for about 3 years and were not good enough.

[UselessBettor]

Sorry for all the question.

There is no problem asking questions. I'll do my best to answer them.

Added in a few more systems (4 systems) today to full bet sizes. They have finished their trial periods. There was 2 systems removed as they did not perform to expectations. They will be monitored going forward for re-inclusion.

[Shaun]

Yes its all live monitoring. Its all automated so I do nothing. I record my result for each day from midnight to midnight as the account balance is checked every couple of minutes all day long and recorded.

I live monitor at least 500+ systems. I have disabled quite a few too which have recorded for about 3 years and were not good enough.

Cheers for that, i know i need to get away from excel and more into python for data collection, it's just hard to move away from a familiar program.

[Shaun]

I collected some data for this week, 40 races bet, 35 winning 5 losing, doesn't sound bad but when you are aiming for between 5% and 20% a race losses have a big impact, now this is a small sample i know but i think i was a bit greedy, 4 of those losers were above the original 15% mark i had been testing on, my thinking was what would 5% extra matter, well maybe it does.

I plan to reduce back to 15% but will monitor up to 20% to see if any change, i also want to monitor not stopping at a winner to see how that fairs.

[evajb001]

Hi UB,

Sorry its taken a while to respond back to you, the last few weeks for me have been crazy. Appreciate your response and what you've mapped out is essentially what im aiming for, just gradually increasing my bankroll and bet sizing to the point that I can turnover more and create that passive side income.

As a bit of an update my NBA betting has been absolutely ridiculous so far. I was away for a few days so missed a couple of betting days but so far I've bet 7 days for +45 units with average turnover of about $500 a day. These returns have exceeded my expectations but I do feel like I've certainly got an edge with what I'm doing, its just more a matter of how long until I start getting restricted with the bookies I'm betting with.

Fortunately for all of my sports betting (both NBA and other sports) I'm generally betting on the line so I can take out the 3, 5 or 10 biggest winners and its not going to have a huge adverse effect on my profit. I'll continue to keep you guys updated on my progress, hopefully I can continue the success on this NBA and increase my turnover further in the new year.

[UselessBettor]

I collected some data for this week, 40 races bet, 35 winning 5 losing, doesn't sound bad but when you are aiming for between 5% and 20% a race losses have a big impact, now this is a small sample i know but i think i was a bit greedy, 4 of those losers were above the original 15% mark i had been testing on, my thinking was what would 5% extra matter, well maybe it does.

I plan to reduce back to 15% but will monitor up to 20% to see if any change, i also want to monitor not stopping at a winner to see how that fairs.

Shaun, your on the right track. Just keep at it and get the strike rate up to 99%. Easier said than done.

[UselessBettor]

I'll continue to keep you guys updated on my progress, hopefully I can continue the success on this NBA and increase my turnover further in the new year.

Great work in the NBA which is a notoriously efficient market.

Definitely keep us posted on the progress.

[evajb001]

Quick update, mate of mine that has been betting on the same NBA plays as me has already been limited by one of the bookies to $5 stakes. This is after winning just $500 profit and only betting on the NBA over the last 2 weeks with $25 stakes.

Both of us were relatively surprised at how quick they limited his account particularly as he bets on some other markets with that bookie and generally loses or breaks even on those other markets. Makes me wonder how long i've got until I get limited and also means we're searching for some other options for the selections. Unfortunately its player prop betting which essentially rules out betfair so chances are once we milk a few of the bookies for profit that this system/approach will become defunct as we won't be able to bet it anymore.

Will continue to keep you guys up to date, may even get to the point where we simply sell the picks and let others bet them until they get limited as well but thats some time off for now.

[UselessBettor]

Quick update, mate of mine that has been betting on the same NBA plays as me has already been limited by one of the bookies to $5 stakes. This is after winning just $500 profit and only betting on the NBA over the last 2 weeks with $25 stakes.

Both of us were relatively surprised at how quick they limited his account particularly as he bets on some other markets with that bookie and generally loses or breaks even on those other markets. Makes me wonder how long i've got until I get limited and also means we're searching for some other options for the selections. Unfortunately its player prop betting which essentially rules out betfair so chances are once we milk a few of the bookies for profit that this system/approach will become defunct as we won't be able to bet it anymore.

Will continue to keep you guys up to date, may even get to the point where we simply sell the picks and let others bet them until they get limited as well but thats some time off for now.

If you beat the finishing odds line on these you will get flagged. So if you are getting value odds on it all the time they will quickly work it out by comparing to the final odds. if your odds are 90% higher than this (just picked a random number there but if the majority of your odds are higher than the final odds) then you will be flagged and restricted.