safest bet

[Mike367]

Hello all,

If you don't mind I'd like to pick your brains.

I'm wondering different sports and events, some will be easier to pick a winner. Like I'd rather bet on the rugby than soccer, as poor call from the ref can kill a soccer match. If backing an outright winner.

I understand the old "low risk, low reward, high s/r" That's fine with me.

So, what do think are the safest bets?

Horses, dogs, AFL, NRL, NBL, Cricket, and then there are all the "exotic" type bets.

Not asking for any secrets or that, just nudge in the right direction.

cheers,
Mike.

[walkermac]

There's a post in my old AFL ratings thread that touches on this a little: http://www.ozmium.com.au/forums/showpost.php?p=351039&postcount=27.

https://startuptown.files.wordpress.com/2015/01/skill-luck-continuum1.jpg


The problem is that if it's easy to pick a winner, it's as easy for bookmakers to set appropriate odds.

Very broadly speaking, to come out ahead you have to either: do a better job at determining the odds than the professionals; pick your battles (i.e. you don't have to bet every game in every market - unlike a bookie); use information or methods that aren't widely available to others; or find people/bots to bet against who are worse at it than you! ;)

[UselessBettor]

Every sport can have an edge. If your looking for sports with higher strike rates you will get lower odds as you know but look for team sports with high scoring.

The more scoring plays there are in a game the more chance that skill will be a factor as there are a lot of repetitions and skill needs that to overcome luck.

Think of things like AFL and basketball where there are 20-50 scoring plays per team per game.

Still you can turn any sport you want into a high strike rate by combining bets, taking middles, trading, etc.

[evajb001]

All I can say is that if you're starting out and want to bet on sports, then shopping around for odds is an absolute necessity. This obviously requires you to not be banned with any of the bookies but it can make a huge difference to your bottom line picking up a few extra cents on each bet.

For instance lets say you have an approach/system on any sport that has average odds of $1.10 like you've hinted at Mike. 'Safer' bets focusing on favorites in sports, you had 1000 bets for the season with a 91.1% strike rate (911 winners) to make 2.1 units profit. Thats a great effort, you've beaten the bookie edge and made a small profit - but lets say you'd shopped around with 4 bookies and averaged odds of $1.12 on those same bets instead. Now you've made 20.3 units profit. 2 cents average better on each bet and you've boosted your profit on turnover by almost 2%.

If you've got the ability, then take the time to shop around for odds - it can make a mountain of difference. If I were going to pick a sport out to start on it would be AFL for the following reasons:

- Its not a global game, therefore less likely to have as many people data-mining it to try and make a profit on it
- The level of stats readily available are in their infancy compared to the big american sports. Thus if you can find a stat with an edge, you might get a good run out of it before others catch on.
- Team lists are huge and there are more players on the field then any other sport. This means its a team effort with hopefully less variance due to key players missing through injury or having poor games. Yes those players make a difference, but its not like Lebron James and Anthony Davis missing games for the Lakers.
- Scoring is high when compared to other sports. In rugby a field goal can make a huge difference, in soccer or ice hockey a single penalty can change a game. In AFL free kicks actually have very minimal impact on the outcome of a game (over time).

There's almost no other readily available sport to bet on that I've been able to find with these characteristics. Basketball is probably the next closest however it has a huge reliance on 1) Key players and 2) there are hundreds of thousands more people betting on it and reviewing it from a statistical standpoint.

To give you an idea, a person checked the performance of Houston when they went to particular cities and found there was some correlation between the performance of James Harden and whether that city had 'good' strip clubs. This then effected team performance.

I figure there are people out there who are waaaaaay smarter then me betting in the market and influencing the market to a point that the closer you get to game time, the betting 'market' is a solid indicator of the likelihood of the result. The big challenge is either using other peoples expertise (ratings) or finding an obscure stat or angle that gives you a slight profitable edge. Combine this with achieving higher odds and you'll be able to get some profit in your pockets.

[Mike367]

Thanks guys,

That's what I've been thinking about, can skill overcome luck. And which sport is best in this area.

I agree with evajb001 and have AFL on the top of my list.

Then NRL and I was thinking about golf and tennis. Both have enough time where good players can come back from a bit of bad luck.

I haven't included basketball because its a sport where one player can make or break a team. Also I know next to nothing about it, and I think it's vital to have a good understanding of the sport or event I'm putting my money on.

As for finding an edge, well I've been trying for a long time. I haven't found one yet, but have found a a few nice curves :)

[UselessBettor]

Thanks guys,

That's what I've been thinking about, can skill overcome luck.


if it couldnt be done then there would be no professional punters out there.


I think it's vital to have a good understanding of the sport or event I'm putting my money on.


Depends on your approach. I disagree. All I need is data. From data I can determine if the correlations make sense with only a basic understanding of the sport. For example lets say I download NRL data. I see a correlation between number of drop outs and tries scored. Now I can make a conclusion that a team which has more drop outs awarded then their opponent probably has field position and possession. That means they were probably on top for more of the game.


As for finding an edge, well I've been trying for a long time. I haven't found one yet, but have found a a few nice curves :)

They are everywhere if you have enough data. That data might just be recording all your bets and why you took them. If you did that you are likely to find a winning edge in a few weeks/months.