Price Percentages

[Shaun]

I am looking for some info and hope someone might have it, i got some stats from UB a while back on percentage of the top 3 favs.
1st 33%
2nd 20%
3rd 12%
Rest 35%

But i would like to try and break this down further in to prices.

any help appreciated.

[Chrome Prince]

I think you have my database Shaun, so you could work it out from there or I could help you.
If you don't please outline what you need exactly please :)

[Shaun]

Mainly what i am looking for is the percentage win of the fav at different price points, from $1-$2, $2-$2.50, $2.50-$3. $3-$3.5, $3.50-$4, $4-$4.50, $4.50-$5, $5 up

[Chrome Prince]

Okay, firstly top three faves:
1st 32.71%
2nd 19.57%
3rd 13.75%

1st Fave:
$1-$1.50 65.68%
$1-$2 51.87%
$2-$2.50 39.02%
$2.50-$3 32.27%
$3-$3.5 27.08%
$3.50-$4 23.17%
$4-$4.50 20.21%
$4.50-$5 17.83%
$5 up 15.75%

*Based on nearly 24 years of data.

[Shaun]

cheers, thanks for that.

[Unstable]

Okay, firstly top three faves:
1st 32.71%
2nd 19.57%
3rd 13.75%

1st Fave:
$1-$1.50 65.68%
$1-$2 51.87%
$2-$2.50 39.02%
$2.50-$3 32.27%
$3-$3.5 27.08%
$3.50-$4 23.17%
$4-$4.50 20.21%
$4.50-$5 17.83%
$5 up 15.75%

*Based on nearly 24 years of data.

On those figures Chrome Prince, You would need to Average the Odds below to finish square at level stakes.

SR% ODDS
1st 32.71% 32.71 $3.06
2nd 19.57% 19.57 $5.11
3rd 13.75% 13.75 $7.27

1st Fave:
$1-$1.50 65.68% 65.68 $1.52
$1-$2 51.87% 51.87 $1.93
$2-$2.50 39.02% 39.02 $2.56
$2.50-$3 32.27% 32.27 $3.10
$3-$3.5 27.08% 27.08 $3.69
$3.50-$4 23.17% 23.17 $4.32
$4-$4.50 20.21% 20.21 $4.95
$4.50-$5 17.83% 17.83 $5.61
$5 up 15.75% 15.75 $6.35

[Chrome Prince]

Funny thing is I've noticed recently that best tote beats Betfair SP under certain circumstances, like the $5 to $8 range roughly, but you never know what you're going to get with either until the race has jumped.

[Unstable]

You are so correct Chrome Prince, Betfair is on average, 12% better than any other betting site, take away the 7% commission and you are still 5% better off than any Corporate bookmaker.

With BF, you can set your own price, if you think No.3 in race 5 is a $3.00 chance and the best you can get is $2.50, skip the race. If there is no value in the race, win or lose, wait until there is. BF don't care if you win, they just want the commission if you do win.

Years ago, I started setting my own prices, at first, it seemed like a lot of work for little gain but after a while, you start getting good at it. Picking the right races and skipping those races with next to no value.

Races where there is 6+ horses under $10.00, skip straight away, also skip races where there is a Odds on Fav, yes the Fav can get beaten, but do you really want to take that chance? Look for races with a $3.00+ Fav and the next being $2.00+ more than the Fav but no more than 4 horses under $10.00. These races are the value races to invest in, why, they are races where the Fav is not quite clear and most runners are over $10.00 and regarded as poor chances.

A little bit of form analysis in these races and you will find you are now getting value for your money.

[Unstable]

Example of a Value Race, Sunshine Coast Race 5, 5/6/2022.
Fav BF prices, $3.30, next was $5.30. Only 3 horses under $10.00.

There was value, in Dutch betting in this race, the 3 under $10.00, were all Value Runners.

However, with a closer look, No.2 The Kewess, last start run was on the Poly Track, beaten 3.7lens, prior to that, was beaten by a nose, heavy 9. Finds a Soft 6 and an extra 200m. With 4 on pace runners engaged, the prediction is a genuine pace and off pace runners having the advantage.

The Kewess should have the last crack at them and every chance to win this race. My price is $3.40, The Kewess done exactly that, Won, paying $5.30.

These type of races do exist, the value is there and if your analysis, comes up with 2 or 3 likely winners, then bet on them all, if the prices are as explained above.

[Mark]

..... also skip races where there is a Odds on Fav, yes the Fav can get beaten, but do you really want to take that chance?

YES, sure do. Been making a living from it for more than 20 years.

[Unstable]

Hi Mark,

I have no doubt, specializing in Odds on Fav, you could make money, not for me, I don't have that sort of money to make a living out of.

My example, was to show races, you can get value in. In the example, odds on Fav are not considered value runners and can be a risk, in my opinion.

We all know, the top 3 horses in the market, win around 83% of the time, my point was, find races with these horses in mind, with value.

I'm sure there are plenty of other systems out there, better then the one I have put up, you guy's have been around a long time and have tried many systems early on in your careers. I just thought I would put my 2 bobs worth in to contribute to the forum.

Thanks for replying Mark

[Unstable]

Just a quick Question, Is any member a Bet Selector user?

[Mark]

Hi Mark,

I have no doubt, specializing in Odds on Fav, you could make money, not for me, I don't have that sort of money to make a living out of.


I don't specialise in Odds on favs, and didn't start with much of a bank. You don't need a lot of money or bet big to make an income.

[partypooper]

Mark, I got the impression that "Unstable" thought you meant you made a living from BACKING odds on Favs.

[Mark]

Mark, I got the impression that "Unstable" thought you meant you made a living from BACKING odds on Favs.

You could be right party.
As most would know, I am strictly a layer.

[Unstable]

Thank's Partypooper, Mark, being a newby on the Forum, I for one, did not know you only lay your bets.

Mark, can I ask, what is your Max Lay Odds, if you have one?

The Liability can sometimes get out of hand, especially using a Recovery Staking Plan.

[Mark]

I don't lay one out, I try to lay the whole field.
I have a price limit of 80 the win and 18 the place.
The liability never gets out of hand if you know what you're doing.
Here's a tip......never ever chase.

[partypooper]

Mark, has it all sewn up. I can't claim the same fame, but I have a few moments and no mortgage, let me give you a recent "investment" a AFL game with a $1.38 Fav. another code with a $1.12 Fav. lets just say an investment of $100 (multi) so a possible return of $1.54 ($154) now the 2nd elect had the opposition @ $6.50, so as the first was a winner we now invest $24 on "B",

so if A wins we collect $154-$24= $30 profit, if B wins we collect $156-124=$32 profit

Works for me!

[evajb001]

Party, what about if the first game is a loser?

[partypooper]

Evajb001, $1.12's can and do lose, if they didn't I'd be on my way to Royal Ascot in my private jet. Just hope I pick the right ones and win often enough to cover the occasional disaster. If I can't, it's back to the drawing board (again)

[evajb001]

partypooper, on the example you provided im just trying to get my head around taking that approach.

So say game 1 is AFL game with $1.38 fav.

Game 2 is where you've got the $1.12 fav and $6.50 dog.

You've multi'd the $1.38 and $1.12 options for a $1.55 return using $100. And then you hedge out on the opponent to lock in a return of $30 roughly regardless.

But if you just placed the original $100 on the $1.38 team only, you've got a return of $38. Understandably you could lose your $100 but this would happen anyway if they lose under the other scenario.

Just checking if i've missed something here or my thinking is correct. Essentially using the multi approach you're allowing the bookie to pocket the juice thats already in the odds again instead of it being in your pocket.

EDIT: I understand that $8 gap doesn't sound like much but do it enough times and it adds up

[partypooper]

evajb100, yes you've got it right. I put this forward to get some brain matter
ticking over. Hopefully some ideas to prune it. As far as the prices are concerned yes it is 100% numbers game you have to pick out where it works, and how low a take out you're prepared to accept. What I meant was EVEN @1.12,s lose regardless whether it's in the first game or the 2nd.

I like the basic idea, I've had some success but concede, it could be beginners luck, if you can see any way to improve any part of it please feel free!

[Mark]

I don't lay one out, I try to lay the whole field.
I have a price limit of 80 the win and 18 the place.
The liability never gets out of hand if you know what you're doing.
Here's a tip......never ever chase.

Some nice results yesterday.

[Shaun]

Okay, firstly top three faves:
1st 32.71%
2nd 19.57%
3rd 13.75%

1st Fave:
$1-$1.50 65.68%
$1-$2 51.87%
$2-$2.50 39.02%
$2.50-$3 32.27%
$3-$3.5 27.08%
$3.50-$4 23.17%
$4-$4.50 20.21%
$4.50-$5 17.83%
$5 up 15.75%

*Based on nearly 24 years of data.

Any chance i could get this for the 2nd fav also?

What would be the place percentage for the 1st and 2nd fav, don't need a price breakdown just the average place percentage.

[beton]

Pushing the envelope I know but why stop at the second? Can we have the first 5? or at least the 3rd as well.
Good to see someone here.

[Mark]

You could probably have an educated guess at the rest. Counts for nothing if you can't apply the information correctly.