Melbourne Cup 2022

[UselessBettor]

Wallkermac are you around ?

I always look for you analysis each year and this year I will be flying blind without you :)

If anyone else interested in doing the analysis Walkermac did last year as his table on reasons why horses would win were always super helpful.

[Shaun]

Same, he does the best form for the cup.

[walkermac]

Sorry that I've been remiss with the Cup this year. I don't have the time available that I used to. I haven't been paying attention to any racing beyond putting some (dodgy) tips into the comp once a week. I will try and put some info up over the weekend though (fingers crossed my code still works!)

[walkermac]

Well, bad news: can't find the file I used to use so I figure it must be on my old laptop. That laptop won't start (boot selection failed because a required device is inaccessible). I spent a bit of time on the weekend trying to fix it, but no luck.


It should be relatively easy to find the data though. That file just scraped it so that it was easier. One point for each:



Less than 8yo
Wgt < 57kg
Not a mare
<= $21 SP
< $16 in last
Wgtd < than in last
FS in last >= 10
Won Black Type
<=3L in last
<6 victories
I don't think it's done much good the past 3 years, so....


I could source this data, if anyone finds it interesting:

<table style="border-collapse: collapse;" border="1"><tbody><tr><td>Horse</td><td>Sire</td><td>Dam</td><td>Dosage Profile</td><td>D.I.</td><td>CD</td></tr> <tr><td>DURSTON</td><td>SEA THE MOON</td><td>CARIBANA</td><td>0-0-11-5-2</td><td>0.44</td><td>-0.5</td></tr> <tr><td>LUNAR FLARE </td><td>FIORENTE</td><td>MY FAIR LAGO</td><td>3-6-16-5-0</td><td>1.31</td><td>0.23</td></tr> <tr><td>POINT NEPEAN</td><td>CAMELOT</td><td>SEA GODDESS</td><td>3-4-21-14-0</td><td>0.71</td><td>-0.1</td></tr> <tr><td>DEAUVILLE LEGEND</td><td>SEA THE STARS</td><td>SOHO ROSE</td><td>1-3-15-1-2</td><td>1.1</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>GOLD TRIP</td><td>OUTSTRIP</td><td>SARVANA</td><td>12-5-10-5-0</td><td>2.2</td><td>0.75</td></tr> <tr><td>DUAIS </td><td>SHAMUS AWARD</td><td>MEERLUST</td><td>8-9-3-0-0</td><td>12.33</td><td>1.25</td></tr> <tr><td>MONTEFILIA </td><td>KERMADEC</td><td>BANA WU</td><td>1-1-9-5-0</td><td>0.68</td><td>-0.13</td></tr> <tr><td>HOO YA MAL</td><td>TERRITORIES</td><td>SENSATIONALLY</td><td>5-1-10-6-0</td><td>1</td><td>0.23</td></tr> <tr><td>KNIGHTS ORDER</td><td>SO YOU THINK</td><td>LAMANKA LASS</td><td>6-6-21-9-0</td><td>1.15</td><td>0.21</td></tr> <tr><td>LOFT</td><td>ADLERFLUG</td><td>LABRICE</td><td>3-6-10-10-1</td><td>0.88</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>WITHOUT A FIGHT</td><td>TEOFILO</td><td>KHOR SHEED</td><td>2-9-13-10-0</td><td>1.06</td><td>0.09</td></tr> <tr><td>NUMERIAN</td><td>HOLY ROMAN EMPEROR</td><td>DELICATE CHARM</td><td>4-9-25-4-0</td><td>1.55</td><td>0.31</td></tr> <tr><td>CAMORRA</td><td>ZOFFANY</td><td>MAURALAKANA</td><td>1-3-4-0-0</td><td>3</td><td>0.63</td></tr> <tr><td>ALEGRON </td><td>TEOFILO</td><td>ALEGRIA</td><td>4-7-12-7-0</td><td>1.31</td><td>0.27</td></tr> <tr><td>STOCKMAN</td><td>TAVISTOCK</td><td>CRIMSON</td><td>1-5-23-9-4</td><td>0.71</td><td>-0.24</td></tr> <tr><td>YOUNG WERTHER</td><td>TAVISTOCK</td><td>ROMANTIC TIME</td><td>10-8-15-7-0</td><td>1.76</td><td>0.53</td></tr> <tr><td>VOW AND DECLARE </td><td>DECLARATION OF WAR</td><td>GEBLITZT</td><td>6-8-6-0-0</td><td>5.67</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>GRAND PROMENADE</td><td>CHAMPS ELYSEES</td><td>ZACCHERA</td><td>3-8-13-0-0</td><td>2.69</td><td>0.58</td></tr> <tr><td>TRALEE ROSE</td><td>TAVISTOCK</td><td>STAR OF TRALEE</td><td>2-5-24-9-4</td><td>0.76</td><td>-0.18</td></tr> <tr><td>DAQIANSWEET JUNIOR</td><td>SWEET ORANGE</td><td>PAULETTE</td><td>3-14-9-0-0</td><td>4.78</td><td>0.77</td></tr> <tr><td>ARAPAHO</td><td>LOPE DE VEGA</td><td>ALZUBRA</td><td>0-11-13-0-0</td><td>2.69</td><td>0.46</td></tr> <tr><td>CRYSTAL PEGASUS</td><td>AUSTRALIA</td><td>CRYSTAL ETOILE</td><td>1-3-14-8-0</td><td>0.73</td><td>-0.12</td></tr> <tr><td>SMOKIN' ROMANS</td><td>GHIBELLINES</td><td>INFERNO</td><td>0-10-16-2-0</td><td>1.8</td><td>0.29</td></tr> <tr><td>EMISSARY</td><td>KINGMAN</td><td>SOVIET MOON</td><td>3-3-8-4-0</td><td>1.25</td><td>0.28</td></tr> <tr><td>REALM OF FLOWERS </td><td>SO YOU THINK</td><td>ASTRAL FLOWER</td><td>2-4-16-8-0</td><td>0.88</td><td>0</td></tr> <tr><td>INTERPRETATION</td><td>GALILEO</td><td>DALDIYNA</td><td>3-9-18-12-0</td><td>1</td><td>0.07</td></tr> <tr><td>MAKRAM</td><td>MAKE BELIEVE</td><td>SPONTANEOUS</td><td>1-5-5-5-0</td><td>1.13</td><td>0.13</td></tr> <tr><td>KING OF THE CASTLE</td><td>GALILEO</td><td>REMEMBER WHEN</td><td>5-11-20-12-0</td><td>1.18</td><td>0.19</td></tr> <tr><td>SERPENTINE</td><td>GALILEO</td><td>REMEMBER WHEN</td><td>5-11-20-12-0</td><td>1.18</td><td>0.19</td></tr> <tr><td>CHAPADA </td><td>BULLET TRAIN</td><td>DIAMANTINA DIOR</td><td>2-4-13-7-0</td><td>0.93</td><td>0.04</td></tr> <tr><td>SAN HUBERTO</td><td>SPEIGHTSTOWN</td><td>SEDICIOSA</td><td>5-10-9-0-0</td><td>4.33</td><td>0.83</td></tr> <tr><td>HARMYSIAN</td><td>LOPE DE VEGA</td><td>ADJA</td><td>1-10-11-0-0</td><td>3</td><td>0.55</td></tr> <tr><td>HIGH EMOCEAN</td><td>OCEAN PARK</td><td>HIGH JOY</td><td>2-11-22-5-2</td><td>1.33</td><td>0.14</td></tr> <tr><td>SCHABAU</td><td>PASTORIUS</td><td>STAYING ALIVE</td><td>2-3-10-5-0</td><td>1</td><td>0.1</td></tr></tbody></table>

(From a 2021 post) Looking at past figures:

From left to right, the "average" 3200m race winner would have a profile like (5-5-15-4-2) (not to say that any one winner looks like that, just that all the individual numbers average out to those figures)
Some numbers in the rightmost position would be particularly handy (this indicates that one/some of those ancestors tended to pass on long distance prowess; though that wouldn't help much if turns into a sit and sprint)
An index of around 1.94
A CD of around 0.22

[UselessBettor]

I do find it interesting. Thanks for the info so far

:)

[Lord Greystoke]

I do find it interesting. Thanks for the info so far

:)

I concur. RESPECT

Cheers LG

[evajb001]

Agreed, I can give it a crack with the scoring walkermac outlined but i'd have to do it all manually so would take a bit of time. But i've always loved these cup threads, one of the few things that keeps me checking in each year.

[UselessBettor]

Ill likely do it Saturday night or Sunday in some format.

[Lord Greystoke]

Agreed, I can give it a crack with the scoring walkermac outlined but i'd have to do it all manually so would take a bit of time. But i've always loved these cup threads, one of the few things that keeps me checking in each year.

Exactly this champ.

LG

[UselessBettor]

Ive done the figures and used them in one of my youtube videos to look through the melb cup. I'll post it up once its ready (in a few hours).

[UselessBettor]

Here are my thoughts on the 2022 Melbourne Cup.

It follows a couple of simple systems and then I take a bit of a look what I will be doing (which is laying some horses). Feel free to disagree and debate.


I look forward to a lot of debate on the Melbourne cup as its rare many of us agree on it.

My analysis was done based on it likely being a SOFT or HEAVY track.

If you don't want to hear about every horse just jump forward to the ratings at 37 minutes and 30 seconds and my selections appear just after that.


https://youtu.be/jvMHfOptTXI

It has all of the table done in alphabetical order at the 37 minute mark. I have it broken down by each horse if you watch the entire video. Hopefully I got the numbers right.


Good Luck on the race.

[Mark]

For what it's worth....as usual the worst race of the year for punters to bet on, and this is the worst field for quite a few years. When the top weight is the winner of only 1 race from 15 starts you know it's not good.

I can normally get the race down to 4-6 chances but this year I can only narrow it down to 13, or more than half the field. Again, not good.

Looking at the race as a layer, there is only 1 horse in the market, so he will be my worst way.

For the record, I'm on Gold Trip, which I can't see winning, and only on because I got 100/1. I will be laying him to make a profit.

Good luck, you'll need it.

[evajb001]

UB, had a look at your video, thanks for putting it up.

I'm leaning towards Montefilia and Smokin' Romans being my key picks with Deauville Legend and Without A Fight being next in line.

With how weak the race appears, if you look past the fave which seems very poor value given how much luck is required to win, there really does seem to be 8-10 hopefuls that could all win on their day.

With gold trip being a 2kg clear top weight with only 1 career win I feel that kind of speaks to how weak the field is. I think this opens up the potential for some of the usual 'rules' to be broken - i.e. every chance a mare could win this year.

Best of luck to all having a crack.

[Lord Greystoke]

Good evening gentlemen!

Here are my top picks for the cup based on wet weather form.

Top chances
Numerian
Stockman
Young Werther
Lunar Flare

Others
Knights Order
Arapaho
High Emocean

Best value
Stockman


Best of luck chaps!

Cheers LG

[walkermac]

I haven't had time for an in-depth study of the field, but I do like the look of Smokin' Romans. Will run forward, nice sectional in the Turnbull Stakes, drawn wide-but-not-too-wide with a light weight.

Also on the top two rungs of 'the system' :) Thanks for doing the work there, UB.

[Shaun]

I like Vow and Declare with a few others, i hate this race

[Mark]

Looking at the race as a layer, there is only 1 horse in the market, so he will be my worst way.

For the record, I'm on Gold Trip, which I can't see winning, and only on because I got 100/1. I will be laying him to make a profit.



Being a layer is like being a weather forecaster, you can be wrong most of the time and still keep your job.....and make a profit.

[evajb001]

I guess I was in part correct, one of the main rules was broken, just it was the weight one and not gender of the horse. I had gold trip rated well and my only bet on the race was a First 4 however only had it for 2nd onwards as the weight scared me off.

My 3 other main picks had varying results (Smokin romans, without a fight and montefilia). I was really high on montefilia but my hopes were crushed when 300m into the race she had been taken back to last.

I had all of the top 9 in my first 4 but not having gold trip to win cost me.

Melb cup is always a bit of fun although my losing drought stretches to another year longer. Hopefully we have the crew back for another tilt next year