Odds On Value?

[Chrome Prince]

Testing a strategy with odds on favourites for the win and place, I am testing whether getting on early will be profitable. Here are the selections for today:

Date Track Race Tab Horse Win Place
21/07/2024 Curragh 1 8 Red Letter $1.66 $1.12
21/07/2024 Curragh 6 4 Jackie Oh $1.90 $1.30
21/07/2024 Stratford 5 2 Brave Knight $1.36 $1.12
21/07/2024 Stratford 8 1 Ronnies Rules $1.53 $1.10
21/07/2024 Newton Abbot 1 2 Golden Path $1.61 $1.20

[Chrome Prince]

Lucky I took best odds guaranteed as many of them drifted.
Here are the results (hope it formats okay)

Selections 5 Win S/R 60.00% Win Return $5.15 Win Profit $0.15 Win POT 3.00%
Winners 3 Place S/R 60.00% Place Return $3.34 Place Profit -$1.66 Place POT -33.20%
Placings 3

[Chrome Prince]

Just the one selection for today:

22/07/2024 Cartmel 3 9 Jolie Coeur Allen $1.72 $1.12

[Chrome Prince]

Just the one selection for today:

22/07/2024 Cartmel 3 9 Jolie Coeur Allen $1.72 $1.12

Jolie Coeur Allen ran 6th after blowing out to $2.10 :(

Selections 6 Win S/R 50.00% Win Return $5.15 Win Profit -$0.85 Win POT -14.17%
Winners 3 Place S/R 50.00% Place Return $3.34 Place Profit -$2.66 Place POT -44.33%
Placings 3

[Chrome Prince]

Tonights selections:

23/07/2024 Lingfield 8 7 Rich Pulls Pitch $1.83 $1.40
23/07/2024 Musselburgh 5 2 Union Island $1.52 $1.22
23/07/2024 Ballinrobe 8 1 Base Of Fire $1.83 $1.25
23/07/2024 Wolverhampton 1 1 Take A Pull $1.66 $1.30

[Chrome Prince]

Cumulative total results:

Selections 10 Win S/R 50.00% Win Return $8.20 Win Profit -$1.80 Win POT -18.00%
Winners 5 Place S/R 60.00% Place Return $7.26 Place Profit -$2.74 Place POT -27.40%
Placings 6

Only down 1.80 units so far.

[Chrome Prince]

Catterick 1 5 Easy Peeler $1.83 $1.36
Naas 7 3 Power Under Me $1.83 $1.33
Salisbury 3 1 Dream Voyage $1.44 $1.06
Salisbury 6 7 Godsend $1.72 $1.16

[Chrome Prince]

Cumulative total results:

Selections 14 Win S/R 64.29% Win Return $15.10 Win Profit $1.10 Win POT 7.86%
Winners 9 Place S/R 71.43% Place Return $12.17 Place Profit -$1.83 Place POT -13.07%
Placings 10

Finally in the green for the win.
The strike rate is fairly low for the odds at this stage, so I would expect a further upturn in results overall.

[Chrome Prince]

Selections for tonight:

Sandown 2 10 Ruling Court $1.66 $1.16
Worcester 5 3 I'm Ravenous $1.50 $1.12
Leopardstown 2 2 Bedtime Story $1.11 $1.02
Newbury 2 3 Glistening $1.80 $1.20

[Chrome Prince]

Lost a llittle last night:

Results
Selections 18 Win S/R 61.11% Win Return $17.87 Win Profit -$0.13 Win POT -0.72%
Winners 11 Place S/R 77.78% Place Return $16.67 Place Profit -$1.33 Place POT -7.39%
Placings 14

[Chrome Prince]

Quite a few tonight:

Uttoxeter 1 1 Guard Duty $1.90 $1.12
Uttoxeter 2 1 Boyles Hill $1.80 $1.20
Uttoxeter 5 2 Laser Focus $1.80 $1.30
Ascot 2 9 Tactician $1.72 $1.14
Kilbeggan 1 2 Tonaghneave Well $1.90 $1.40
Thirsk 2 5 Griselda $1.72 $1.16
Thirsk 4 1 Yaajooz $1.90 $1.36
Cork 6 1 Cill Mocheallog $1.72 $1.07
York 5 7 Ejaabiyah $1.72 $1.18

[Chrome Prince]

Results:

Selections 27 Win S/R 51.85% Win Return $23.57 Win Profit -$3.43 Win POT -12.70%
Winners 14 Place S/R 74.07% Place Return $24.05 Place Profit -$2.95 Place POT -10.93%
Placings 20

[Chrome Prince]

There are no qualifying selections for tonight.

[Chrome Prince]

Selections for tonight:

Uttoxeter 6 8 Tregele $1.61 $1.18
Pontefract 5 9 Retracement $1.33 $1.05

[Chrome Prince]

Results:

Selections 29 Win S/R 55.17% Win Return $26.51 Win Profit -$2.49 Win POT -8.59%
Winners 16 Place S/R 75.86% Place Return $26.28 Place Profit -$2.72 Place POT -9.38%
Placings 22

[Chrome Prince]

Selections for tonight:

<pre>Ayr 1 5 Weissmuller $1.57 $1.10
Galway 3 5 Truth Be Told $1.72 $1.14
Windsor 3 4 Chorus $1.57 $1.10
Windsor 4 4 Elmonjed $1.83 $1.22
Wolverhampton 2 2 Beauty Nation $1.36 $1.06
Wolverhampton 3 1 Lady Wingalong $1.61 $1.16
Wolverhampton 7 10 Standbackandlook $1.90 $1.25</pre>

[Chrome Prince]

Bad day yesterday:

Results:
<pre>Selections 36 Win S/R 50.00% Win Return $29.98 Win Profit -$6.02 Win POT -16.72%
Winners 18 Place S/R 75.00% Place Return $32.07 Place Profit -$3.93 Place POT -10.92%
Placings 27</pre>

[Chrome Prince]

Selections for tonight:
<pre>Goodwood 4 4 Kyprios $1.44 $1.18
Yarmouth 1 5 Twilight Jazz $1.90 $1.25
Yarmouth 6 3 Sir Rodneyredblood $1.83 $1.33
Beverley 1 2 Lakers $1.72 $1.28
Lingfield 2 1 Hampden $1.83 $1.36
Ffos Las 6 8 Godsend $1.83 $1.22</pre>

[Chrome Prince]

Another bad day, the win strike rate is way below expected odds:
<pre>Selections 42 Win S/R 47.62% Win Return $33.42 Win Profit -$8.58 Win POT -20.43%
Winners 20 Place S/R 76.19% Place Return $38.33 Place Profit -$3.67 Place POT -8.74%
Placings 32</pre>

[Chrome Prince]

Just one selection tonight:
<pre>Leicester 6 1 Ten Pounds $1.12 $1.04</pre>

[Chrome Prince]

Results

<pre>Selections 43 Win S/R 48.84% Win Return $34.54 Win Profit -$8.46 Win POT -19.67%
Winners 21 Place S/R 76.74% Place Return $39.37 Place Profit -$3.63 Place POT -8.44%
Placings 33</pre>

[Chrome Prince]

Selections for tonight:
<pre>Goodwood 3 1 Jan Brueghel $1.80 $1.28
Galway 8 12 Vicar Street $1.83 $1.18
Epsom Downs 2 3 Parole Dóro $1.61 $1.22
Epsom Downs 6 2 Macanudo $1.83 $1.22</pre>

[partypooper]

Looks like the Forum curse is alive and well Chrome?

[Chrome Prince]

Results for 1/08

<pre>Selections 46 Win S/R 50.00% Win Return $37.95 Win Profit -$8.05 Win POT -17.50%
Winners 23 Place S/R 76.09% Place Return $41.87 Place Profit -$4.13 Place POT -8.98%
Placings 35
</pre>

[Chrome Prince]

Looks like the Forum curse is alive and well Chrome?

Sure is!

[Chrome Prince]

Selections for tonight:
<pre>Galway 3 2 Puppet Master $1.80 $1.33
Galway 4 4 Thequietman $1.80 $1.22
Galway 8 3 Cameletta Vega $1.83 $1.28
Newmarket 3 1 Desert Flower $1.20 $1.06
Thirsk 5 7 Thunder Run $1.83 $1.22
Doncaster 3 5 Winston's Tipple $1.50 $1.12
Windsor 2 4 Reservado $1.83 $1.20
Hamilton 1 1 Temper Trap $1.83 $1.36
</pre>

[Chrome Prince]

Cumulative results:
<pre>Selections 54 Win S/R 48.15% Win Return $42.83 Win Profit -$11.17 Win POT -20.69%
Winners 26 Place S/R 75.93% Place Return $49.32 Place Profit -$4.68 Place POT -8.67%
Placings 41</pre>

[Chrome Prince]

Just one selection tonight:
<pre>Haydock 1 4 Solomon $1.90 $1.22</pre>

[Chrome Prince]

Total Results:
<pre>Selections 55 Win S/R 49.09% Win Return $45.03 Win Profit -$9.97 Win POT -18.13%
Winners 27 Place S/R 76.36% Place Return $50.54 Place Profit -$4.46 Place POT -8.11%
Placings 42</pre>

[Chrome Prince]

Tonight's selections:
<pre>Cork 1 2 Aurora Vega $1.14 $1.03
Cork 6 5 Saint Sam $1.28 $1.11
Cork 8 8 King Peak $1.90 $1.20
Naas 1 2 Firebird $1.14 $1.03
Naas 6 17 Heavens Gate $1.66 $1.22
Ripon 2 6 Caribbean Wind $1.50 $1.07
</pre>

[Chrome Prince]

Running Total:
<pre>Selections 61 Win S/R 52.46% Win Return $51.91 Win Profit -$9.09 Win POT -14.90%
Winners 32 Place S/R 78.69% Place Return $57.20 Place Profit -$3.80 Place POT -6.23%
Placings 48</pre>

[Chrome Prince]

Selections for tonight:
<pre>Ffos Las 2 1 Bold Impact $1.61 $1.14
Ffos Las 3 4 Fine Interview $1.44 $1.14
Roscommon 2 4 Caman Eileen $1.57 $1.18
Chelmsford City 4 4 Green Icon $1.44 $1.11
</pre>

[Chrome Prince]

Results:
<pre>Selections 65 Win S/R 52.31% Win Return $54.79 Win Profit -$10.21 Win POT -15.71%
Winners 34 Place S/R 78.46% Place Return $60.59 Place Profit -$4.41 Place POT -6.78%
Placings 51
</pre>

[Chrome Prince]

Selections for tonight:
<pre>Pontefract 3 3 Godsend $1.36 $1.00
Sligo 3 1 Rebel Diamond $1.72 $1.12
Kempton 3 2 Arabian Light $1.30 $1.05
Kempton 4 7 Sword $1.50 $1.08
Kempton 5 2 Sea Just In Time $1.83 $1.16
Kempton 7 1 Heathcliff $1.66 $1.18
Yarmouth 3 2 Northern Ruler $1.80 $1.30
Yarmouth 4 2 Clever Currency $1.90 $1.33
</pre>

The win strike rate is well below what it should be given the average odds.
The whole point of this exercise was to see if taking early prices was better than closing prices, which it seems not to be the case so far. I'll keep posting to 100 selections and make that my final case.

[Chrome Prince]

Results:
<pre>Selections 74 Win S/R 52.70% Win Return $63.64 Win Profit -$10.36 Win POT -14.00%
Winners 39 Place S/R 87.84% Place Return $74.04 Place Profit $0.04 Place POT 0.05%
Placings 65</pre>

[Chrome Prince]

Selections for tonight:
<pre>Brighton 2 2 Praetorian $1.12 $1.00
Sligo 5 2 Plontier $1.57 $1.14
Sligo 7 13 Surfin Usa $1.83 $1.22
</pre>

[Chrome Prince]

Results:
<pre>Selections 76 Win S/R 53.95% Win Return $66.76 Win Profit -$9.24 Win POT -12.16%
Winners 41 Place S/R 89.47% Place Return $77.40 Place Profit $1.40 Place POT 1.84%
Placings 68
</pre>

[Chrome Prince]

Selections for tonight:
<pre>Thirsk 2 3 Mae Amor $1.61 $1.18
Thirsk 5 3 Quietness $1.72 $1.10
Musselburgh 1 1 Evening Saigon $1.80 $1.30
Tipperary 4 7 January $1.66 $1.10
Tipperary 6 2 Longbourn $1.61 $1.18
Wexford 7 3 Hey Sunshine $1.83 $1.18
Haydock 2 3 Hawksbill $1.36 $1.00
</pre>

[Chrome Prince]

Results were poor last night:

<pre>Selections 83 Win S/R 53.01% Win Return $71.66 Win Profit -$11.34 Win POT -13.66%
Winners 44 Place S/R 89.16% Place Return $83.96 Place Profit $0.96 Place POT 1.15%
Placings 74</pre>

[Chrome Prince]

Selections for tonight:
<pre>Curragh 1 3 Delacroix $1.44 $1.11
Curragh 3 1 Ballet Slippers $1.80 $1.18
Curragh 6 4 Whistlejacket $1.90 $1.30
Haydock 2 2 Anmaat $1.80 $1.30
Kilbeggan 4 5 Run For Oscar $1.44 $1.18
Lingfield 3 2 Blessed Star $1.90 $1.36
Ayr 1 2 Bob Mali $1.90 $1.18
</pre>

[Chrome Prince]

Results:
<pre>Selections 90 Win S/R 53.33% Win Return $78.24 Win Profit -$11.76 Win POT -13.07%
Winners 48 Place S/R 90.00% Place Return $92.57 Place Profit $2.57 Place POT 2.85%
Placings 81
</pre>

[Chrome Prince]

Just two selections for tonight:
<pre>Ripon 6 2 Bursinel $1.83 $1.25
Downpatrick 1 3 Sharp Object $1.83 $1.11
</pre>

[Chrome Prince]

Results:
<pre>Selections 92 Win S/R 53.26% Win Return $80.34 Win Profit -$11.66 Win POT -12.67%
Winners 49 Place S/R 90.22% Place Return $94.93 Place Profit $2.93 Place POT 3.18%
Placings 83
</pre>

[Chrome Prince]

Selections for tonight:
<pre>
Ayr 1 1 Duty First $1.90 $1.16
Ballinrobe 6 2 Arctic Gale $1.90 $1.14
Windsor 3 1 Staincliff $1.28 $1.10
</pre>

[Chrome Prince]

Results:
<pre>Selections 95 Win S/R 53.68% Win Return $83.52 Win Profit -$11.48 Win POT -12.08%
Winners 51 Place S/R 90.53% Place Return $98.33 Place Profit $3.33 Place POT 3.50%
Placings 86
</pre>

[Chrome Prince]

Selections for tonight:
<pre>
Hamilton 3 6 Historic City $1.80 $1.16
</pre>

[Chrome Prince]

Results:
<pre>Selections 96 Win S/R 54.17% Win Return $85.32 Win Profit -$10.68 Win POT -11.13%
Winners 52 Place S/R 90.63% Place Return $99.49 Place Profit $3.49 Place POT 3.63%
Placings 87
</pre>

[Chrome Prince]

Selections for tonight:
<pre>
Beverley 2 9 Stanhope Gardens $1.53 $1.10
Kempton 5 11 Gracious Leader $1.83 $1.25
</pre>

[Chrome Prince]

Results:
<pre>Selections 98 Win S/R 54.08% Win Return $86.89 Win Profit -$11.11 Win POT -11.34%
Winners 53 Place S/R 90.82% Place Return $101.84 Place Profit $3.84 Place POT 3.92%
Placings 89
</pre>

[Chrome Prince]

Selections for tonight:
<pre>Dundalk 1 7 Dazzling Angel $1.57 $1.11
Dundalk 4 1 Bernard Shaw $1.50 $1.20
Beverley 1 10 Stormy Impact $1.57 $1.12
Salisbury 3 2 Butterfly Wings $1.83 $1.33
Chelmsford City 4 9 Under Siege $1.33 $1.03
Chelmsford City 5 7 Urban Lion $1.66 $1.14</pre>

[partypooper]

Chrome , you look like getting close to that magical 4% Place Pot, the vast % of punters would consider that irrelevant.......... GOOD!

[Chrome Prince]

Final results of test:
<pre>
Selections 104 Win S/R 53.85% Win Return $91.45 Win Profit -$12.55 Win POT -12.07%
Winners 56 Place S/R 90.38% Place Return $107.44 Place Profit $3.44 Place POT 3.30%
Placings 94
</pre>