The Thunderbolt.

[Dale]

As requested by Lenny here is the system i sent into p.p.m. that appeared in their may 91 magazine,it's fairly simple to use and is based on the Sportsman's zip rating but could be used with any reliable ratings.

(1)Use the Sportsman form guide,note the Zipform rating for each horse in the race.

(2)Add each horse's win% to the Zipform figure.

(3)Add 10 points if the horse is trained by one of the states top 5 trainers.

(4)Add 5 points if the horse is to be ridden by one of the states top 5 jockeys.

(5)The horse with the highest total is the selection.

(6)Do not bet on 2yo or maiden races.

(7)A horse must have at least 4 starts to qualify and not be unbeaten.
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Some suggestions for improvement;

Make up your own list of jockeys and trainers.

Convert the pre post odds into a % and add that to the final figure.

Ignore jockeys and trainers and add an X factor like kgs under top weight to give the system a chance to produce a surprise result.

Work out which races make the most money and if races with less than say 10 runners dont turn a profit ignore them,look at Q's and T's in races with 10 or more runners.

Cheers,Dale.

[darkydog2002]

DALE.how did it perform over 12 months?.

[Dale]

Hi Darkydog,i was too young and stupid to give it a good run and basicly it was too much work for a youngster,but over the first hundred races i tested it on it produced 36 winners and 56 place getters out of 100 bets for a pot of 30.35%,it then dropped off a bit and i lost faith but it does show promise and with a bit of tweaking it may produce the goods.

[darkydog2002]

DALE I CAN UNDERSTAND THAT.A FEW LOSERS AND WE PANIC.THATS WHY I PREFER TO BE OVERCAPITALIZED RATHER THAN UNDER.
THERES NOT A PROFFESSIONAL ALIVE THAT HASNT HAD HORRENDOUS RUNS OF OUTS.

WHO KNOWS WITH A BIT OF TWEAKING HERE AND THERE IT COULD HAVE BEEN YOUR POT OF GOLD.

CHEERS.DARKY.

[darkydog2002]

DALE.I AM GOING TO EXPERIMENT WITH IT AS A BASE THEN ADD THINGS LIKE .
WIZARD FIELD STRENGTH -20 to + 1.5
WT.RATING 91 -100
TIME RATING 92-100
BEATEN LENGTHS 1200 -1599( WITHIN 2 LENGTHS)
1600 -2000 (WITHIN 3 LENGTHS.
ETC ETC.
IF YOU CARE TO WORK WITH ME WITH A FEW IDEAS YOU CAN CONTACT ME AT darkydog2002@hotmail.com
WHO KNOWS WE JUST MIGHT COME UP WITH SOMETHING GOOD.

[Dale]

Hi darkydog,i sent you an e-mail.

Anyone out there who uses the zipform ratings i'd be interested in how effective you think they are,any statistics would be great.

[darkydog2002]

DALE.DIDN,T RECIEVE THE EMAIL.
darkydog2002@hotmail.com

[crash]

Darky/Dale,

I use the Sportsman and find their Zip a good guide and use their top five as it usualy bags almost all of the winners. [Sydney last Sat. top zip won first five races]. I too am very interested in Dale's method.

The idea of distance from winner last start Darky is better than 1,2,3,4 etc. Maybe, must not be comming down in weight more than say 2kg as well [?].

Trouble with a lot of systems is that they just lead to the published favorites. Dale's idea hopefuly will point out some winners that arn't just favorites.

Using some of the [better] stats from the wizard sounds good, especialy trat.

cheers.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-09-23 17:05 ]</font>

[Dale]

Darky,i sent another e-mail let me know if you got it,i'm having a bit of trouble with my e-mails at the moment,talk about frustrating lol.

Hi Crash,i now what you mean about a system spitting out the favorites,you definately need a way to get around it an x factor so to speak.

How would the top 5 zip horses compare to the top 5 pre post horses? is there much difference?

[darkydog2002]

CRASH.I LIKE IT TOO.WITH A BIT OF TWEAKING IT MAY TURN OUT SOMETHING SPECIAL.
RE 1 2 3 4 LAST START I HAVE SPOKEN OVER THE YEARS WITH A COUPLE OF TOP PUNTERS(THE LATE IAN BARNES/PAUL SEGAR AND BOTH HAVE TOLD ME NOT TO GO PAST 4th LAST START AND WITH BEATEN LENGTHS 1200-1599 WITHIN 2 LENGTHS.
1600 - 2000 WITHIN 3 LENGTHS.IN THEIR OPINION BOTH = GOOD RACE.
I TRUST THEIR OPINION.
WARMEST REGARDS.DARKY.

[crash]

Dale,

Yes there is often a big difference between the two.

Cheers.

[Dale]

Thanks Crash i thought as much.

Perhaps you or someone out there could help me out.

I'm was wondering if past and present zipform ratings can be accesed anywhere over the internet?

[crash]

Dale,

I think you might have a problem there.

I buy Wed/Sat. Sportsman [and the winning post for comments] but I don't keep them. I Keep a few things but like a fresh start every week [in otherwords my wife throws them out].

I find the Zip better than any rateing service I have ever tried and I get you drift on what you are trying to do.

There is probably room for several systems that should work ok based on the zip as an initial horse rateing to start with. Just add some sensible hadicapping rules and bingo. The hard part is sticking to it and not betting outside my hadicapping rules. I basicaly try to do that and profits [or lack off] tend to reflect how much I have stuck to it.

Cheers.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-09-25 07:25 ]</font>

[shoto]

I'm wondering about how the Wizard ratings compare to the Zipform, or if using the Wizard in the same way would produce similar outcomes?

[crash]

Gee shoto, I don't know about the Wizard. I was buying it from when it first came out for a long time [as well as the Sportsman and the Globe initialy]. I only get the Wizard occasionally now to see how it's faring. I don't think it holds a candle to the Sportsman. Having said that, their is some form info. in the Wizard that could be used with Sporsman's Zip. Trat for instance. By itself a lot of there info is fine but it tends to go pear shaped when they put it togeather.

There will be plenty that disagree and to each his/her own but Wizard's ratings [by themself] are just a fancy tecno looking Malcom Knowles Pic Wis system put to paper [I have it on floppy with the manual]. Useful but not in the same class as Sportsman in my humble opinion.

Sportsman's zip [amongst other things including their new sectionals] as a rating beats the Wizards "system" most of the time and I have had lots of practise comparing the two over the years. The top Zip wins far more often than Wizards top rater. Wizard's form comments are lax [they miss a lot of important info. not in the form figures] compared to say the Winning Post's more astute info and pre post prices [first four regularly gets most of the winners]. That mag. for comment and Sportsman for form study and info. is the go for me anyway. I put my selections and any other info. I might need onto the W/P and only use that when at the track or ealsewhere.

Punters may feel "uncertain" using the Sportsman by itself because of the lack of form comment. I used to and probably still would without the W/Post for comment. It provides the security blanket. Best Bets is very good too I hear.

Cheers.

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<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-09-26 18:26 ]</font>

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[darkydog2002]

SHOTO.you probably could use the wizard for the thunderbolt.
the wizards advantage is their FIELD STRENGTH FIGURE,and if using that wouldnt go past +3 TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT ANY LIKELY IMPROVER.i much prefer to only go to +1.5.
for that extra $5.50 a week it would pay to buy both.

cheers.darky/

[shoto]

Thanks Crash and Darky.
I manually enter the top 3 Wizard selections (Wrat) into my database each week. From what you're saying Crash I think maybe I should do the same for the Zipform (at least the top one anyway). Over the course of time there might be some interesting comparisons. I'll post anything worthwhile that comes of it.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: shoto on 2003-09-26 23:28 ]</font>

[crash]

Since the start of this thread [that got me thinking about useing the zip for a system], I have been working on one and I tried it out for the first time last night at Moonee Valley.
The main goal was a system that didn't just lead to the fav., provided a reasonable amount of action and spat out selections at a quick glance only.

From the eight races the system produced five selections.
The most important rule was: Must be within top three lines of Zip figures. Interestingly, race one winner was top zip, race two winner was 4 lines from top, race three was 2 lines from top paying 17.60 and race six was three lines from top also paying very well. Race 7 winner was third line from top at $6 somthing. 6 from 7 races within the top 3 Zip.


The selections were:
R/3 Anfield. Third
R/4 Casual Pass. Won 8.20
R/5 Applicant. Won 5.20 [top zip]
R/6 Gumboot. Unp.
R/7 Tendency Unp.
Not a bad result from a hard night race meeting.

I had $20 win only on all of them to see how it went. Now wish I had staked a lot more !

I was suprised. Especialy Casual Pass winning the Stutt from the outside alley. However, the Callow/Ellerton combo has a 50% SR over the past 12mths. as I have written ealsewhere on the forum. That team has few starts but worth noticing when they are on. Callow won 3 from 6 rides.

Early days for this system but if it can keep performing as well as last night I think it might be a goody.

Will post some selections here later this morning [for today] to see how it goes again.

Cheers.



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<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-09-27 09:03 ]</font>

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-09-27 09:07 ]</font>

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-09-27 09:11 ]</font>

[crash]

Will see how the system performs at the hardest meeting of the day. A couple of favorites came up but that would be expected at this meeting.

Ranwick
R1/1 Fixated
R2/3 Square one
R3/5 Looking
R4/7 Hansa
R5/6 Dashing away
R6/1 Lonhro
R7/1 Fiery Venture
R8/nil
R9/3 Gullcatcher

Cheers.

[crash]

Well that lot went pear shaped. Interestingly all winners [except the $23 bolter in R/8] were all within the top 3 Zip with 4 winners in the top 2 and only one SP favorite amoungst all the winners. Top 3 Zips could have been dutched for a comfortable winning day.

Dale, I tried initialy with your original plan but ended up with all winners [including the bolter] with top jockeys and trainers [the top 5 trainers and jockeys were in every race] so actual choice came down to top win% only more or less.

I also added must have finished 1,2,3,4 in 3 of last 4 starts [one open for a bad run] or if first start from a spell, won first up last prep. Must have won at the distance, from top 3 win % lines and top 3 Zip. If more than one contender. top win %. Best TAB number or top Zip would have produced a better result than above although it was a very hard meeting full of suprises. Rule about finishing positions wasn't a good one at this meeting. Stuffed it completely. Any ideas for improvement ?

A way to add Wizard F/S and Trat maybe to above rules would produce somthing better but 7 top 3 zip winners point to Zip as a main qualifier. Nobody here seems to buy Sportsman AND the Wizard all the time. Well at least I tried something out.

Sportsman/Wizard, a bit like football clubs ? Possibly so.

Cheers.



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-09-28 07:23 ]</font>

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[Dale]

Hi Crash,if your looking to use the zipform rating concentrate on the 2nd,3rd and 4th raters as imo the top rater is overbet.

Some very nice winners just below the top rater won last week and if you also ignore races with less than 8 runners the prices often allow you to back more than one horse.